Making Sense of the Financial Crisis in the Era of Peak Oil

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Ruhh's picture
Ruhh
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Making Sense of the Financial Crisis in the Era of Peak Oil

Stoneleigh's presentation gets my very highest recommendation. Top notch education on about energy, economy and global expansion/contraction. Audio and slides of the presentation found at http://sheffield.indymedia.org.uk/2010/06/453356.html

Stoneleigh's presentation gets my very highest recommendation. Top notch education on about energy, economy and global expansion/contraction.
Ruhh's picture
Ruhh
Status: Gold Member (Offline)
Joined: Nov 12 2008
Posts: 259
Deflation

Forgot to mention she lays out a very strong argument for deflation...

Nacci's picture
Nacci
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Posts: 194
Re: Making Sense of the Financial Crisis in the Era of Peak ...

Ruhh,thanks for posting this.   It took some real concentration and two listen throughs but this was well worth the effort.  In my own mind the destruction of credit, equity and home values as well as the massive debt held on all levels is deflationary.  The amount of new money being injected into the system would have to surpass these deflationary forces before we suffer inflation.  Does this seem reasonable?  Your thoughts?  Nacci.

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goes211
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Re: Making Sense of the Financial Crisis in the Era of Peak ...

It was a long presentation but well worth the time I spent listening to it.  Stoneleigh is very well spoken and I think it is good to hear from people on both sides of the inflation / deflation debate.  I mostly agree with her take and I think we are really facing a deflationary period for the next year or two.   My worry is that things will get more scary when this deflationary spiral is finally broken and inflation comes on with a vengance.  I don't agree with her that this inflation is 10 years away but otherwise I think she may be spot on.

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mainecooncat
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Re: Making Sense of the Financial Crisis in the Era of Peak ...

The most important thing to take away from her presentation is that the purchasing power of the average person will decline greatly during money/credit supply deflation even though actual price points will decrease. She even says that people's purchasing power will be less than in an instance of money/credit supply and price inflation.

The second most important point for me is that during money/credit supply deflation prices can still rise due to the most overlooked nuance in modern economics: real things are finite. What a foolish notion that things of inherent value such as food and energy would somehow become less valuable (read needed or useful) just because people don't have enough money to spend on them!

So many people I talk to think that somehow deflation is good in general or will be good for them. They're dead wrong. In fact, my tentative conclusion is that deflation is a greater threat to social mechanisms and keeping delievery systems propped up then is inflation.

Inflation vs. deflation to me is at times a silly debate -- unless of course you have millions of dollars to manage and you're an investing wonk. To the vast majority of people it's like asking: "Death by leaping off a cliff or being crushed by a boulder?"

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britinbe
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Re: Making Sense of the Financial Crisis in the Era of Peak ...

Fantastic talk, I want to try and see here in Brussels. 

plato1965's picture
plato1965
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Posts: 615
Re: Making Sense of the Financial Crisis in the Era of Peak ...

 Fantastic lecture by stoneleigh... thanks for posting it Ruhh.

 She explained the consequences of a deflationary phase in a way that radically altered my understanding...

 It reinforces the idea that we're likely to have a period where we get *really* squeezed on the essentials.

 So, there's no point having a huge stash of gold if you have to sell it to pay huge food and energy bills (at the same time everyone else is being forced to do likewise..)

 ie Try and become as efficient / self-sufficient in the necessities - F.E.W  - food, energy, water as first priority.

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kennyq
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Joined: Jul 30 2008
Posts: 82
Re: Making Sense of the Financial Crisis in the Era of Peak ...

I listened the audio again. I am falling into deflation camp again.  We need to cash out every thing now if Stoneleigh is right., sell your gold too? What was wrong with her presentation? Any inflationist here?

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