Lots of oil- Forever!

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Tall's picture
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Lots of oil- Forever!

Apparently, we are mistaken. The NYT reports that we are in no danger of impending or serious energy shortages.  Very reassuring! Wink

"“We should celebrate the fact that we have enough oil and gas to carry us forward until a new energy technology can take their place,” said Robert N. Ryan Jr., Chevron’s vice president for global exploration."

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/11/17/business/energy-environment/17FUEL.html?pagewanted=1&_r=3&ref=energy-environment

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Re: Lots of oil- Forever!

When you start hearing this kind of message, you know trouble is just around the corner.  It happened with the tech bubble, and with housing.  Here is a great talk by Kunstler   http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q1ZeXnmDZMQ&feature=player_embedded  to help keep you focused on where to move while we are 'never' running out of oil.

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Re: Lots of oil- Forever!

Well I certainly fell better after reading that. 

I especially like the part that discussed EROI on all that unlimited oil.

Wait, it didnt.

Hey, at least an industry insider acknowledged that "all the easy oil has been found".  Now all they have to do is go back and "re-explore" old fields for leftovers.  Then head back to corporate, smoke some more hopium and wait for all the abiotic oil formed by whale song and crystals to start bubbling up to the surface (I made that part up).

On a somewhat serious note, I would like to see their models that came up with reduced oil consumption totals.  I think someone in the Department of Economic Policy Fairy Dust Make Believe Land failed to tell the oil bubbas that their economic growth models were dependent on consumption of energy AND resources - neither of which exist in excess.

Until now.

Woo hoo!!  Time to buy a Hummer.

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Re: Lots of oil- Forever!

There only thing intelligent I have seen out of CERA is that there is no way Iraq can get to 12m b/d in six years.  This is Pearl Harbor all over again.

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Re: Lots of oil- Forever!
Dogs_In_A_Pile wrote:

Well I certainly fell better after reading that.

Perhaps you should try the new anti-gravity tech, currently under wraps!Wink

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Re: Lots of oil- Forever!

I want to ask a question that's been bugging me for a long time, and which this thread has finally gotten me to ask.  It's not so much about the specific issues of oil exploration and peak oil, but rather the general approach to reading and interpreting the news.  I want to say up front I am pretty much panicked about Peak Oil.  Of all the worrisome issues presented on this site, that's the one that really keeps me up at night.

Anyway, after reading this article and the responses here, I got to wondering...  When we all read an article like this, which has an inherently positive spin to it, we seem immediately discount it because it doesn't fit in with our pessimistic world-view.  Is it possible then we are simply selectively filtering everything through gloom-colored glasses?  Anything that is doom and destruction passes the test, while a positive story such as this can't possibly be true.

I am not an oil scientist or energy expert.  I have no basis for understanding how valid an article like this is.  The only thing I have to go on for this (and almost every news article except for the very fews ones concerning things I am an expert in) is faith in the author and whatever my gut tells me.  Neither one is really based on the actual facts of whether there is plenty of oil or not.

I'm as worried about the future and the next guy on this site.  I just want to play devil's advocate here, though, and ask this nagging question.

 

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Re: Lots of oil- Forever!
StrangeFoliage wrote:

When we all read an article like this, which has an inherently positive spin to it, we seem immediately discount it because it doesn't fit in with our pessimistic world-view.  Is it possible then we are simply selectively filtering everything through gloom-colored glasses?  Anything that is doom and destruction passes the test, while a positive story such as this can't possibly be true.

Quick answer, yes. It is not only possibile, but I have caught myself in the act on multiple occasions.

I have been all over PO for many years now. My fear of it has diven many actions to do what I can to minimize it's effect on my family and community. Then a friend of mine, someone not quite convinced of all of the merits of PO, someone who I value their opinions, said offhand to me one day "but that might upset your Peak Oil Identity." That hit me pretty hard. Too close for comfort and all.

I realized at that moment that I had been doing exactly as you describe. It forced me to take off my doom filter.

At this point, I began the PO research again. It was good for me because a lot had changed in the data since I had originally bought in to PO. I also approached it with as open a mind as I could, without fear. This was possibile this time around because I had already put my preps in place, so I was covered either way. I spent hours on sites like peakoildebunked and others, trying to get the complete picture.

To make a long story short, I am every bit as convinced that PO is a reality as it was when I first stumbled upon it and acted in fear. What I am not nearly as convinced about is the timing. At the time I started, I thought 2010 was going to be "the year." The complexity of the 3 Es makes it impossibile to make timing predictions of any real value. Geopolitical forces, growing and shrinking economies throughout the world, lack of firm proven reserves data from folks like OPEC, and many other variables means that anyone who provides a prediction will likely be wrong. And honestly, the actual date of the global peak in production is irrelevant, what we really want to know is when and how it will effect us personally. Many say we peaked conventional crude in 2006, yet the sky has not fallen.

The bottom line is this: unless you think that oil is abiotic in nature (in which case we have a different discussion to have) then it only makes sense that there MUST be a peak. The question is how and when will it effect us, if at all. To this question, it is best to keep an open mind and look for both the good and the bad. I feel very comfortable in saying that it will not all come crashing down this week, so you have time to research or prepare as you see fit. For me, if I had it to do all over again, I would do it the same, only without fear as the motivation. There's plenty of other reasons to be motivated to act with reguard to peak oil, just don't make it your identity.

Cheers,

R

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Re: Lots of oil- Forever!

Strange -

PS - Don't take Dog's quips to seriously. Look at his tagline. He hasn't figured out how to eat PO or play with it, so you see what he is left with.

Sealed

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Re: Lots of oil- Forever!

Strange -

I actually had response post with a rare, serious tone to it that was eaten by our network operations center just as I hit Post.  I will try again - despite Ready's warning shots.

You have asked a set of questions most of us here on the site have asked along the way.  I don't think it is as much a dismissal of a "positive" article so much as it is a healthy skepticism of everything the media presents.  Chris has urged us time and again to be less quick to press the "I Believe" button and to go out and research and find the facts for ourselves. 

The media is only one source and for various reasons - deliberate misinformation, biased representation because of special interest group payments, hack journalists whos research is about two microns deep (on a good day), etc. 

You are no doubt familiar with the Crash Course chapters on Facts, Opinions and Beliefs and the Six Stages of Grief (denial, anger, fear, acceptance, etc).

Many articles and papers present opinion and belief as fact - without providing substantive factual information.  If you (not 'you' you, but 'they' you) state an opinion or belief with enough confidence it can be wrongly interpreted as fact.  The same thing can happen if you continually state opinion and belief - eventually it morphs into fact in someone's head.

I think the Six Stages frames just how someone is impacted by the presentation of Fact v. Opinion v. Belief.  The farther you are along the stages, the more skepticism you have to jump the first time an article presents information.  My guess is you are wavering between bargaining/denial and acceptance.  Most of us here do the exact same thing - we find acceptance, then something happens and we slide back and forth between denial and barganing for awhile and then end up back at acceptance.

I'm with Ready on Peak Oil.  (Despite his impertinent and slanderous commentary and the fact that he wears a dress when he is on his tractor and shoots and eats endagered owls with large caliber P+ reloaded ammo).  I've taken actions and made preparations for events I thought would have happened by now.  They haven't happened, but I'm still glad that I took those actions - they are now like insurance policies.  I don't want to have to use them, but will be glad I have them if the need arises.   

Peak Oil is a reality, but the timing of the impact is certainly in question.  A lot of pretty smart people here on the site have been adamant over the past two years the the Peak Oil induced collapse of civilization was to have occurred a year ago.  It clearly didn't.  So when we see articles like this one, we have a healthy dose of skepticism.  Most of us want this article to be true - not so much as to return us to the glory days of unfettered consumption of energy and resources to wretched excess - but to buy us more time to implement responsible, sustainable and renewable solutions.  Peak Oil is real - oil is a finite resource - and we are running out of time to get it right.

It's not a matter of dismissing the "happy" stories so much as it is maintaining a healthy questioning attitude - on both sides of the issue.

Although I am hard pressed to come up with a scenario that puts a positive light on a debt based monetray system, an unregulated central banking system and an eleventy gazillion dollar debt burden.

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Re: Lots of oil- Forever!

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Re: Lots of oil- Forever!

DIAP,

I never reload +P.

Wink

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Re: Lots of oil- Forever!

Thank you all for your responses.  I was a little worried about being flamed on this...

As I said I am a "believer" in Peak Oil as well (how can you not be?) but also I wonder about the time frame.  If you told me in a thousands years we would run out of oil, obviously the peak oil theory still holds true, but my immediate worries about the near future would vanish.  (Of course then the whole climate change issue comes to the forefront but that's a whole other issue.)  And I agree whole-heartedly with the comments about being prepared regardless.  I should add, if the BP oil spill did anything, it awakened me to the idea that even if were are not running out of oil, it is my moral obligation to reduce my use of it in any case.

It's not so much a question of denial or acceptance or bargaining, although Lord knows I've gone through these steps as well.  ('Acceptance' is a little thin on the ground, I might add.  I spent most of my time in the 'fear' category.)  It's a simple question of identifying what the facts are.  I find it incredibly hard to determine what is really true about almost anything.  And maybe this has always been true.

Let me go off on a tangent to explain what I mean...  I remember when John Kerry was running for President and the whole "Swift Boat Veterans for Truth" thing happened.  I found it almost impossible to decide what the truth actually was.  In the end I needed to either put my faith in what John Kerry said or put my faith in some other writer or blogger or reporter or pundit.  But in no case would I actually have ever figured out the real truth.  Perhaps if I devoted my entire life to wading through everything,  going to the site and reviewing every interview and document, I could eventually find out the answer to that one little question, but I would have time for nothing else.

So in the end, except for those few things that we really know about because we are intimately involved in them (our work for example) we either have to trust one voice or another.  Does CM's opinion weigh more than some other random guy on the Internet.  I'm not saying that to dis CM in anyway.  I need to say he has sold me almost completely on his ideas.  But again, he has sold me because 1) his statements agree with my common sense and 2) he seems like an intelligent, reasonable guy.  But neither of these two things means that I really know what is happening.

 

 

 

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Re: Lots of oil- Forever!

Oil - flame - I get it.

 

StrangeFoliage wrote:

So in the end, except for those few things that we really know about because we are intimately involved in them (our work for example) we either have to trust one voice or another. 

Or, do the research and trust yourself.

<soap box>

This is clearly weighing on your mind. While you are admittedly not in the oil biz, you can still inform yourself to the best of your ability. Based on what you have said so far, it would seem to me to be a wise use of your time.

</soap box>

The difficulty with this type of research is that it is impossible to self verify facts like oil reserves. So, you have to start with the basics of understanding how oil is produced via a well, a field, a country, a region. The extraction numbers are real, and can be double checked a number of ways. I think you can prove to yourself beyond a shadow of a doubt that the US peaked in the 70s. You can prove to yourself beyond a shadow of a doubt that global discoveries peaked in the late 1960's. You are now beginning to build a case, either for or against imminent PO, based on facts that you have yourself verified.

As you build this case for yourself, use a wide range of sources. Google is your friend, and don't just stay on page 1 of your searches. Look hard for data that contradicts other data, and peel back the layers of the onion until you understand why, and which data is more trustworthy.

<soap box>

I don't pretend to know your personal situatiuon, but speaking for most Americans, a couple of weeks of spending time doing the research instead of watching TV (151 hours per month per average American per Nielson) is all it will take to appreciate that the data is all leaning in one direction.

</soap box>

Seeing how important this topic is, how drastically it can impact our lives, I can't come up with a good reason not to pursue this. It has a personal connection to each of us that John Kerry's war exploits never will.

 

I'm confident that once you have done this, you won't continue to have doubts, either you will KNOW that PO is real and in the near future will have an impact, or you will KNOW that PO is real but it is unlikely to have any real impact for many decades. You can then base your actions and level of urgency on that understanding, while keeping your mind open to new data.

I hope this helps you. It did me. I must now go and rest from all this climbing up and down on my soap box.

R

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Re: Lots of oil- Forever!

Strange Foliage,

Great posts....I can appreciate your perspective, but what I really appreciate is the respectful way in which you made your inquiry ( I would have taken the lazy way and just called them-there Peak Oilers idiots). You even lured Ready into the conversation, quite a significant accomplishment these days. You would never know it from his action-figure avatar, but Ready is quite the bad-ass when it comes to actualization of the Peak Oil lifestyle (or is it an identity, lol).

Thanks for the enjoyable read. Best....Jeff

P.S. Ready, please don't let my praise contribute to your Peak Head syndrome.

 

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Re: Lots of oil- Forever!

Strange Foliage,

What proved compelling for me was the number of countries quietly preparing for peak oil.

There have been numerous reports about oil supply decline from multiple countries (US, UK, Germany, NZ) - business, military, government, insurance entities. Although these reports vary in their estimates of timelines for 'peak oil', my recollection is that they all estimate it already having occurred or occurring within the next 20 years. For example, the US military is planning to be independent of oil by 2040.

http://content.usatoday.com/communities/greenhouse/post/2010/09/report-us-military-must-move-beyond-oil-by-2040-/1

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Re: Lots of oil- Forever!

Thanks for the posts, guys.

Well, I have sat down at down the research, and of course I did conclude that PO was a likely scenario.  What I found frustrating was, however, and perhaps this has always been true with everything since the dawn of time, that no matter how far I dug I eventually had to put my faith in someone else's research.  Unless I actually went to Saudia Arabia and measured the oil in the ground, I have to believe the numbers that they put out, or the modified numbers that some guy over on the Oil Drum puts out because he is adjusting for the fact that the Saudi's prop up their numbers to inflate their reserve estimates for political reasons, etc.  In the end every single little variable in the equation ends up being taken on faith at one level or another.  I guess this is just a basic problem of episemology and not unique to this issue.

Reminds me of a quote:  "There are two ways to slide through life: to believe everything or to doubt everything; both save us from thinking."

Again, Thanks for the responses.

 

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Re: Lots of oil- Forever!

P.S.  What did JAG mean by "actualization of the peak oil lifestyle"?

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Re: Lots of oil- Forever!
StrangeFoliage wrote:

Thanks for the posts, guys.

Well, I have sat down at down the research, and of course I did conclude that PO was a likely scenario.  What I found frustrating was, however, and perhaps this has always been true with everything since the dawn of time, that no matter how far I dug I eventually had to put my faith in someone else's research.  Unless I actually went to Saudia Arabia and measured the oil in the ground, I have to believe the numbers that they put out, or the modified numbers that some guy over on the Oil Drum puts out because he is adjusting for the fact that the Saudi's prop up their numbers to inflate their reserve estimates for political reasons, etc.  In the end every single little variable in the equation ends up being taken on faith at one level or another.  I guess this is just a basic problem of episemology and not unique to this issue.

Reminds me of a quote:  "There are two ways to slide through life: to believe everything or to doubt everything; both save us from thinking."

Again, Thanks for the responses.

These are important questions and I certainly wish I had access to better or more believable data.  But we go with what we have.  I separate the data into two buckets; history and prospective.

On the historical side there are three things about which we can be almost 100% confident:

  1. You have to find it to produce it.  There are no examples of any country producing oil before they found it.  After discovery, there is a pretty solid case to be made that the pace/amounts of discoveries have peaked across all regions and the globe as an entity (as Ready pointed out above).  There's another observation, not as solidly backed by extensive data due to a low number of observation points, that there's a roughly 40 year gap between a peak in oil discoveries and a peak in production.  Perhaps it should be greater or lesser by a decade, but not by much more than that if production is allowed to run its natural course without interference.   To me this is straight logic:  A peak in discovery will lead to downstream peak in production.  Did global discoveries peak in the 1960s?  Yes.
  2. The US, Cantarell, the North Sea fields, and dozens of other locations have all experienced production peaks.  They are well categorized and thoroughly believable.  Unless you want to posit a grand conspiracy across cultures, nations and corporations spanning many decades to fool the world into believing that a finite resource like oil can hit a peak in production, then you have to come to the conclusion that the flow rates of all the areas that have already peaked were maximized/optimized by their production crews.  That was their job, they are immensely good at it, and I assume they did all they could.  Ever meet an engineer?  The idea that they would knowingly sub-optimize something (for decades) and keep their traps shut about it is unthinkable.
  3. The easy oil has all been found.  Easy = "cheap" or "high EROEI."  There really can't be any doubt abut this bit of historical evidence either.  One other point is that these harder, deeper, tighter new finds are typically more difficult to produce and therefore have lower peak flow rates.

It's in the prospective (or speculative) department that things begin to break down, mainly because we have no idea how much OPEC really has in reserve.  That's the uncomfortable wildcard.

Some look at that wildcard and say to themselves "it's not worth worrying about, I'll cross that bridge if/when we get to it" and others, like myself, conclude that the risk is simply to high to ignore.  I can't really say if one is more valid than another, but this site is dedicated to those who cannot, in good conscience, allow their futures to be dictated by solely by fate.

So, yes, I fret over the production data constantly wondering where the faults lay in the reserve data, but also wondering why global conventional oil production has not increased for half a decade (despite massive price increases).  Remember, peak oil is not about reserves, but flow rates.  Who would care if all of Canada were found to be made up out of tar sands equaling 100 Saudi Arabias if the maximum rate of daily production were just 1 mbd?

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Re: Lots of oil- Forever!
StrangeFoliage wrote:

Thanks for the posts, guys.

Well, I have sat down at down the research, and of course I did conclude that PO was a likely scenario.  What I found frustrating was, however, and perhaps this has always been true with everything since the dawn of time, that no matter how far I dug I eventually had to put my faith in someone else's research.  Unless I actually went to Saudia Arabia and measured the oil in the ground, I have to believe the numbers that they put out, or the modified numbers that some guy over on the Oil Drum puts out because he is adjusting for the fact that the Saudi's prop up their numbers to inflate their reserve estimates for political reasons, etc.  In the end every single little variable in the equation ends up being taken on faith at one level or another.  I guess this is just a basic problem of episemology and not unique to this issue.

Reminds me of a quote:  "There are two ways to slide through life: to believe everything or to doubt everything; both save us from thinking."

Again, Thanks for the responses.

 

 

I would suggest that the fact that we are Converting Tar Sands / Fracking for Gas / Drilling thru miles deep ocean are other proof points that we are near or past the peak.  If not, Saudi, etc would provide plenty, regardless of what they say their reserves are, or even if they are made up.

The above are market driven responses to slowing growth of conventional oil that started a long time ago.

Given that the EROEI of all of the high tech solutions above are far less than conventional oil, we know that something is coming.

John

 

 

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Re: Lots of oil- Forever!
StrangeFoliage wrote:

Reminds me of a quote:  "There are two ways to slide through life: to believe everything or to doubt everything; both save us from thinking."

Great quote. With that as a backdrop, let's see if we can do some thinking since we seem to have succumbed to analysis paralysis.

You mention that you cannot prove the reserves in Saudi Arabia. Me neither. BUT... There is more to the story that you can deduce with some careful thought. First, it is not just about reserves, but it has everything to do with extraction RATES. A perfect example is the Bakken or the Canadian tar sands - you may have 100 years worth of oil there, but if you can only get it up thru a straw, it isn't much good to you. In this respect, reserves play a lesser roll than extraction rates if you are trying to predict a flow problem that may show up in the next 5 years.

So, then go back and look at the time when crude hit $147/bbl. Every oil man in the world had every incentive to pump as much as their well would provide. It could then be deduced that timeframe was at or near peak global extraction based on the fields and rigs at the time. This can be further exemplified by what happens next... the economic crash, the reduction in demand, the overshoot of oil production, the full container ships sitting in ports idle everywhere, and the drop tp $30 etc.

Do you see where I am going with this line of reasoning? I don't need to know how much oil OPEC has left, I only need to know how much they can pump, and what global demand is currently and what it is likely to be in the future. Past global demand is a hard number, unlike reserves.

Remember, since that time, fields like Canatrell have absolutely crashed. Mexico is in trouble and as a major oil importer to the US historically, this means we need to find a replacement exporter. If you can deduce how much OPEC can flow, and how much we stand to lose or have lost from Mexico, you have to ask yourself where will this oil come from?

 

 

I'm giving you the thought framework, not the links. I am doing this because you do not know who you can trust. This would include me no doubt. I encourage you to pursue this thought experiment to it's conclusion. This is just one example of how to derive information from data using reasoning. The PO puzzle is full of them. You can make assumptions and assign a risk to them (People are greedy and will try to make as much money as possibile - risk level assumption is incorrect - very low) and build a case.

Or, you can believe everything, or doubt everything.

I read in another post you are a chess player. Seems this would be right up your alley. Global oil, governments, markets, refineries, oil companies, etc - they are all players on the chess board.

 

EDIT:  I wish I had the benfit of reading Chris' response before posting mine, I could have saved us both some time!

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Re: Lots of oil- Forever!
StrangeFoliage wrote:

P.S.  What did JAG mean by "actualization of the peak oil lifestyle"?

He is reffering to my preps. Off grid, solar and wind with backup generator and batteries, heat with wood, produce my own biofuel, produce my own food, store it in a root cellar to avoid refrigeration, etc. You know, your typical PO identity.

At least I don't convert grass into wool as my only purpose in life.

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Re: Lots of oil- Forever!
Ready wrote:

At least I don't convert grass into wool as my only purpose in life.

If that is all JAG converted grass into we probably wouldn't have a problem with ovinogenic global warming. 

Did I just spill Captain Sheeple's secret identity?  Surprised

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Re: Lots of oil- Forever!

Lots of good arguments here.  Actually the one that strikes home the hardest is jturbo's.  If oil weren't getting harder to find, why the heck were we drilling so far off the coast in the Gulf of Mexico?  And Thanks Chris, for pointing out (again... I'm slow but trainable) it is a "rate" problem and not a "reserve" problem.

Ready:  I'm jealous.  You clearly as far more prepared than I am.  Do you mind if I ask where you live?  Are you far out in the country?  I live in a small town in upstate NY.  Not ideal, but not horrible.  The good news is that here there is a lot of support for living off the grid, etc.  I did put in the wood stove last year and have been toying with the idea of solar.

 

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Re: Lots of oil- Forever!
StrangeFoliage wrote:

Let me go off on a tangent to explain what I mean...  I remember when John Kerry was running for President and the whole "Swift Boat Veterans for Truth" thing happened.  I found it almost impossible to decide what the truth actually was.  In the end I needed to either put my faith in what John Kerry said or put my faith in some other writer or blogger or reporter or pundit.  But in no case would I actually have ever figured out the real truth. 

I'd like to suggest another approach in the search for truth that serves me well personally, but lacks the factual documentation that CM uses so exhaustively.

You simply ask who is presenting this information? are they a neutral observer? do they have a position to protect, support and promote? Then you view sceptically the information from biased sources and less sceptically the information from apparently neutral sources. (Another given is never trust a politician, realise politics is a game of politics and no longer statesmanship and diplomacy. In this game you ask who is cheating.)

I find this a useful approach since there is more to research than available time.

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Re: Lots of oil- Forever!

Well sure, Steve, you can do that (as we all do) but again it ends up not being about the truth, but rather the messenger.  Again it's a matter of trust or faith in the messanger...

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Re: Lots of oil- Forever!

As with most others here I have a problem to determine when events will start to get us serious problems.

So, while I do believe in peak oil to me it is very important to get a feeling if we will get in problem this year or in a few years or if things will be fine for 10 years.
To get any kind of answer I try to understand what the statistics tell us now, both the actual numbers of the past and the predictions of the future. Different sources tells a different story about the future, but at least for the near future (about a year ahead) there is close to consensus.

This year we will not have any major problems with oil (strong consensus).

In 2011 it seems very likely that production will not fully meet consumption. That only means we will start to slowly use our reserve storage of oil. Still no big deal.
If you believe that some oil producers can produce more than they are now it may not be true that demand passes production in 2011, but I believe this will be the case. 

Halfway into 2011 we should have reasonable facts to tell if we are in a state where consumption will be constantly higher than demand (until reserves are empty). Ofcourse when reserves are empty consumption must fall to the level of production, but that point is in my mind later than 2011.

While I still can't see that much into the future with this strategy it still is enough to give me warnings 6 months to 1 year ahead of time. Not perfect, but not too bad either.
To keep track of this you would need to watch the monthly statistics, but that is just 1 minute work per month to get an early warning. 

On the economic side I think it is much harder to make any predictions. As there is no real hard facts about reserves or flowrates or something similar there is much less tangable things. When will mass-fear strick markets? How much of an event will it take to break major banks or even a country? When will such an event occur?

Looking back at the major economic crash in 2008 and see how few people predicted that crash gets things into perspective. That crash was really fast, but the next one may be many times faster. It may be little time to react and make preparations.

One way is to look at it from another point of view:
What is the most important thing to be able to live a decent life after a major disaster caused by peak oil or financial breakdown or any similar event?

If you just have one single skill that will be usefull and that will be in short supply after TSHTF you will be pretty well off.

By just learning a single skill you might sleep a whole lot better at night knowing you will be doing pretty well regardless of what happens.
Just accept that you will never be fully prepared when things go bad and do what preparations you feel is called for.

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