Krogoth's Investment prediction failures and why

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krogoth's picture
krogoth
Status: Platinum Member (Offline)
Joined: Aug 18 2008
Posts: 576
Krogoth's Investment prediction failures and why

My crystal ball, lucky Linux penguin, mystic rubber chicken and my magic 8 ball are all telling me that these failures are coming.

American Express- 52 week high 60.00  Currently- 20.82
Yes Amercian Express because I think a lot of people are maxing out AMEX and they are dropping sharply

Sun Microsystems- 52 week high- 21.60  Currently- 4.03
Not dead yet, and I am amazed. I am a Solaris programmer, and I can't believe they are still in business. No innovation, no changes and high prices. This mix does not work when PC's are mini's now, with 4 processors moving to 8 shortly

Advanced Micro Devices- 52 week high- 13.27 Currently- 2.68
If Intel is hurting, AMD will be near dead. I don't see how they can survive being behind the curve with Intel in development

Motorola- 52 week high- 17.05 Currently- 4.40
Long overdue for a bankruptcy, hellomoto will not save this research deficient company

Macy's- 52 week high 31.60 Currently- 8.17
Are you going to buy at Christmas at Macy's? Only if you are rich. Another symbol of excess that will not survive this economic crisis

Visa- 52 week high 89.84 Currently- 54.00
Yes, a strong stock now, but what happens when millions default and max out credit on these cards?

Citigroup-52 week high 37.50 Currently- 9.60
My personal prediction of the next big bank to fail

Feel Free to add any you think will fail OR succeed through this- Later I will add the companies I think will make it through and why. Stay tuned.

 

rlee's picture
rlee
Status: Silver Member (Offline)
Joined: Sep 18 2008
Posts: 148
Re: Krogoth's Investment prediction failures and why

Amex's change in status may hold them through the year, but eventually it won't work.  They have a terrible reputation among retailers as the last to pay their own bills and their recent attempts at expanding their lending options - card blue, etc. - are just not being picked up on.  Their latest losses have been attributed to delinquent payments to debts they have paid off on, but knowing how bad they are at accounts payable, they will leave a lot of folks hanging when they go down.

Anybody in the tech industry will suffer, especially if there is any competition.  The lack of 'play money' available to the average individual will show in a drop off of high-end hard good sales during this year's holiday buying rush. (I'm heading out, can I get you anything from Circuit City?!)

Retailers like Macy's/Burdines, Sax, etc., will fall along with the fat cat retail property lessor chains like Simon - who BTW looks way over-extended and is raising rents.  Contract or no contract - BK = no rent payments!

Citigroup is the first to go among the revolving credit giants.  They have their mitts into everything, and it will bite them before AMEX even falls out.

Auto makers will NOT fail (completely) because simply, the government won't let them. 

The winners are Biotechnology, alternative energy, and eco-friendly marketed internet retail.  Why the last one?  Because people are going to look at eco-retail like they look at alternative energy - a way to stick it to the oil man.  And why internet retail?  Simple, no overhead, pass the costs of shipping off the the consumer, little or no employee liabilities.

 

joe2baba's picture
joe2baba
Status: Martenson Brigade Member (Offline)
Joined: Jun 17 2008
Posts: 807
Re: Krogoth's Investment prediction failures and why

hi zo

good list

just a guess but since rubin is obama's finance guru i think citi will get a bundle

from us.

the tech stuff bothers me as i think it might be the last of our advantage going to 

china. 

amex .............shit i have to use my skymiles soon. and no more to come damn.

Ray Hewitt's picture
Ray Hewitt
Status: Gold Member (Offline)
Joined: Apr 5 2008
Posts: 458
Re: Krogoth's Investment prediction failures and why
I predict the demise of the nation-state. It will take many decades, but what is clear that when the wold economy does correct itself, it cannot support a bureaucratic structure that feeds off the production of others at this level. As a crude estimate, the state absorbs half of the nation's resources. It would have to be reduced to about 10%, a level before the existence of the Federal Reserve. Meanwhile we will have to suffer as it fights for its survival.
fombie's picture
fombie
Status: Member (Offline)
Joined: Sep 22 2008
Posts: 16
Big brand retail chains are in danger

I foresee problems for most of the big brand retail chains, because their business model is based on continuous expansion! Some years ago I read an article where they explained that some of these chains open up stores and fill them with merchandise that they only have to pay a couple of months later. While clients come in and buy the stuff that they do not have to pay until one month later, they have cash at hand that they can use to open even more stores and they repeat the cycle on and on. Again the story of exponential expansion and cheap credit that is unsustainable in the current circumstances. I do not know which companies will suffer most from this, the ones that expanded most will be the most vulnerable.

 

krogoth's picture
krogoth
Status: Platinum Member (Offline)
Joined: Aug 18 2008
Posts: 576
Krogoth's Investment prediction failures and why- First Update

Adding some more-

Crocs Inc. 52 week high- 46.80 Currently- 1.11
Cute expensive shoes + Low consumer spending = bye bye

AIG- 52 week high 62.30 Currently- 1.99
All the taxpayers money, and all of Paulsons friends, could not put AIG back together again

 

krogoth's picture
krogoth
Status: Platinum Member (Offline)
Joined: Aug 18 2008
Posts: 576
Another big failure coming- METLIFE

METLIFE 52 week high- 67.21 Current- 21.76 Just hit new 52 week low
Seems some insurance carriers are starting to have he heat turned up

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