KaPoom

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Lemonyellowschwin's picture
Lemonyellowschwin
Status: Platinum Member (Offline)
Joined: Apr 22 2008
Posts: 561
KaPoom

Does anyone who subscribes to this theory (Chris???) care to opine what stage we are in the Ka-Poom cycle?  Bonus points to anyone who can explain their answer.

 Thanks!

john50's picture
john50
Status: Bronze Member (Offline)
Joined: Sep 2 2008
Posts: 74
Cycle stage - DOWN

We recently completed a Grand Super Cycle spanning 310 years, starting around 1690 before the 1720 South Seas bubble, and completing in January 2000 with the Tech Bubble in 5 waves, according to Elliott Wave principles we are now in a large 3 wave decline. A study of historic Manias shows they always return to a level where they started, so we are currently on the downside of Everest.

Global stock markets represent tides in social and economic behavior, and are currently one year into wave C of the fall, which will last a few years more. (significant bottoms around 2014). 75 years of Elliott history tell us to expect a bottom near the low of the previous 4th wave, which was in the early 70's. Expect the Dow to be around 900, and no one wanting to own a stock again. Large C waves always bring major wars as pessimism and nationalism peak after a major economic melt down.

Recovery begins after about 7 years, but it will not be like the age of oil, progress may be much more flat. History books will be an interesting read of how we got here, and how we dealt with the changes, Chris Martenson has raised the bar for the educators. The time to prepare is now, I think I am there, but would like to load up on more Oil and Gold positions from profits of shorting the stock indexes. Deflation is bringing major asset prices down, including houses, stocks, bullion, oil, and commodities. At some low swing point, there should be a high probability of hyper-inflation emerging, to challenge conventional wealth management. 

A good book is At The Crest of the Tidal Wave by Robert Prechter Jr. I will ask permission to show some charts here, should anyone request them, of the cycles and how they are ordered with fibonacci mathematical precision, from our Designer.

mkc's picture
mkc
Status: Member (Offline)
Joined: Aug 19 2008
Posts: 6
Cycle Stage
john50 hasn't answered the question about where we are in the Ka-poom cycle and I just don't have the time. I'm not a fan of the Elliott Waves - it seems to me you can read whatever you want into a chart - but I think the key point about Chris's work is that it relates the current financial turmoil to the underlying historic change which is that we have probably passed peak oil at the very same time extra billions of people are clamouring for the same lifestyle we in the West have enjoyed.
The 'end of the age of oil' is almost certainly upon us and any investor who ignores that is going to get it wrong.

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