Interview with Ted Butler - Silver Could Explode

40 posts / 0 new
Last post
tom.'s picture
tom.
Status: Gold Member (Offline)
Joined: Aug 18 2008
Posts: 345
Interview with Ted Butler - Silver Could Explode

SILVER COULD EXPLODE .... The CFTC investigation

Excerpt:

Quote:
When I first uncovered the data in this report, a little more than a month ago, I couldn't believe my eyes. I had studied the data in previous Bank Participation Reports for years, but that's because I'm a silver data junkie. This is usually a nothing report. In all the years I studied this data, it seemed like a waste of time. It was an obscure report that I never heard anyone ever refer to before. But the data in the August report was so disturbing that, in order to make sure I wasn't imagining things, I asked two trusted associates, Izzy Friedman and Carl Loeb, to review the data with no advance suggestion from me as to its meaning. I wanted their unvarnished opinion.

switters's picture
switters
Status: Platinum Member (Offline)
Joined: Jul 19 2008
Posts: 744
Re: Interview with Ted Butler - Silver Could Explode

Yes, it certainly could.  And I wouldn't be sad if it did because I own some physical silver.

But, the more I read about how precious metals will perform over the next few years the more I realize that no one really has a clue.  Of course the gold and silver bugs say PMs will skyrocket whether we have deflation or inflation.  That's what they're expected to say.  Many others, however, are far less sanguine about the performance of PMs if we experience true deflation. They claim silver will get hit especially hard, because of its current status as a commodity and not as money.  Gold will do better than silver, because it has some monetary association, but will not perform well overall.  So they say.

It's never been easy to predict the market, and it's not for lack of trying.  It seems harder than ever now with the complexity of our current circumstances and the many wildcard variables that no one can predict (war with iran, rapidity of oil depletion, climate change, etc.). 

 I do know that I'm not planning to sell my silver for a loss right now.  :) 

tom.'s picture
tom.
Status: Gold Member (Offline)
Joined: Aug 18 2008
Posts: 345
Re: Interview with Ted Butler - Silver Could Explode
[quote=switters]

I do know that I'm not planning to sell my silver for a loss right now.  :) 

[/quote]

I would not sell now either, even on ebay where I could make a little $$ ... because, then what would I buy?

 

Another column you may like ... BERNANKE'S  PIG

 

And also ... THE T-BONE STEAK  INDEX ... as a possible gold value reference.

Ray Hewitt's picture
Ray Hewitt
Status: Gold Member (Offline)
Joined: Apr 5 2008
Posts: 458
The road does not end in deflation

Deflation means a strong dollar and a contination of the dollar reserve for every country in the world. There isn't a chance in hell that will happen. The US government is hopelessly in debt with a bureaucratic establishment committed to reckless spending and being led by academics with degrees in Keynesian economics. In all history, every nation that took this road didn't stop inflating until they destroyed their country and its currency. These retards are following the same script.

Stay with the fundamentals and be patient. If you own PM, be glad you saw this early before the maddening crowd heads for the exits. It's not a case of silver-could-explode; it's a matter of when and at what rate. 

Ray Hewitt's picture
Ray Hewitt
Status: Gold Member (Offline)
Joined: Apr 5 2008
Posts: 458
Re: Interview with Ted Butler - Silver Could Explode

Jesse Livermore was a product of the early twentieth century, the Warren Buffet of  his time. If ever you have doubts about silver and gold, remember Jesse's words.

And right here let me say one thing: After spending many
years in Wall Street and after making and losing millions of
dollars I want to tell you this: It never was my thinking that
made the big money for me. It always was my sitting. Got that?
My sitting tight! It is no trick at all to be right on the
market. You always find lots of early bulls in bull markets and
early bears in bear markets. I've known many men who were right
at exactly the right time, and began buying or selling stocks
when prices were at the very level, which should show the
greatest profit. And their experience invariably matched mine --
that is, they made no real money out of it. Men who can both be
right and sit tight are uncommon.
I found it one of the hardest
things to learn. But it is only after a stock operator has
firmly grasped this that he can make big money. It is literally
true that millions come easier to a trader after he knows how to
trade than hundreds did in the days of his ignorance.
The reason is that a man may see straight and clearly and
yet become impatient or doubtful when the market takes its time
about doing as he figured it must do. That is why so many men in
Wall Street, who are not at all in the sucker class, not even in
the third grade, nevertheless lose money. The market does not
beat them. They beat themselves, because though they have brains
they cannot sit tight.

 

john50's picture
john50
Status: Bronze Member (Offline)
Joined: Sep 2 2008
Posts: 74
Re: Interview with Ted Butler - Silver Could Explode

Jesse Livermore comment is taken out of context - he was not speaking about silver.He was not in the same class a Warren Buffet, not even fit to be Buffet's broker. Why the hype? Looking to replace Jim Crammer?

Silver is in a down trend, and has further to fall to complete the cycle. Be patient, we will see in the $8 range very soon, with a bottom measured close to $6-7 range, before it is finished.

Silver is treated as an industrial metal by most of the Worlds buyers, not a currency, as such it falls with deflation along with any other commodities. During 1929 crash, silver fell just as hard and nearly as long, bottoming in Dec 1932. Rising copper is the sign that bottom has been reached and is turning up. 

Take a deep breath, and avoid getting scarred or panicked into buying bullion. Sell stocks on the rallies and buy bullion on the deep dips.

Ray Hewitt's picture
Ray Hewitt
Status: Gold Member (Offline)
Joined: Apr 5 2008
Posts: 458
Re: Interview with Ted Butler - Silver Could Explode

John50 says

Jesse Livermore comment is taken out of context - he was not speaking about silver

That quote from Livermore is a universial axiom for any successful long term invester. In fact, that strategy was basic to Buffet's succes. Which is to say he bought companies that were underpriced and held them for the long term without concern for short term price movements.

I see too that you know next to nothing about silver. Silver was a monetary metal long before gold. It goes as far back as bibiblical days when gold was an ornamental metal. The shekel mentioned in the Bible was a unit of silver. The British pound sterling was based on silver. It was a monetary metal in the US until 1968.

That silver is a monetary metal AND an industrial metal gives it an advantage over gold in that practically all the gold ever mined is in usable form. The above-ground supplies of silver have been consumed to the degree that there is now about 1/5 the supply of gold. Silver is now considerably more rare than gold, and in my opinion has the potential to be more valuable than gold until supplies catch up.

I was out of stocks and starting to accummulate silver since 2001. These low prices are a gift. Silver is practically sold out the retail level, because so many know it is underpriced. At these prices, I'll keep buying if I have to buy numismatic coins.

Another way to get a sense of how cheap silver is. Back in the 70s before it spiked at $50, silver was selling for $5 an ounce. The price today is hardly above what it was in the 70s. Heavy manipulation kept it low for all these decades, but that is about to end soon.

If I was a stock holder in Berkshire Hathaway, I would have sold out by now. Livermore went broke many times and Buffet is making the mistakes Livermore made.

It's a fascinating book. http://www.nowandfutures.com/large/Reminiscences_of_a_Stock_Operator_Jesse_Livermore.pdf

KKPSTEIN's picture
KKPSTEIN
Status: Silver Member (Offline)
Joined: Oct 20 2008
Posts: 120
Re: Interview with Ted Butler - Silver Could Explode
Hi, I'm new on here.  Love the site and the comments so far.There's no doubt that sliver is about to make its spectacular move, it is just a matter of when.  When experts like Butler advize to make your move with no delay, I listen.  It is very vogue right now among purists to sell up (including your house), buy silver as much silver as possible, then ride out the storm and then when property is at an all time low, sweep in and make a mint.  Is this wise?  Is this a crazy, fear driven or greed stunt that is way too risky?  Or will this be the last opportunity that the middle class will have to protect their savings through confiscation by inflation and be positioned to gain more in the long run?   Butler also mentioned recently that we will see a great wealth transfer in our lifetime and the asset that will help get us there is tangible silver and ultimately gold.

I’m in the gold business and know that silver is the one to watch right now.

Thanks.
Kirsty



 

KKPSTEIN's picture
KKPSTEIN
Status: Silver Member (Offline)
Joined: Oct 20 2008
Posts: 120
Re: Interview with Ted Butler - Silver Could Explode

John, I agree with you.  It is so cheap right now and I wish I had a wack of money just to buy more of it at this price and while it is still available to the masses.

john50's picture
john50
Status: Bronze Member (Offline)
Joined: Sep 2 2008
Posts: 74
Re: Interview with Ted Butler - Silver Could Explode

hewittr - are you a trader? Were you in silver during the 1970s? Or what do you do that makes you an silver expert, apart from buying some in 2001?

Can you share your silver charts showing where price is going? Is silver going up? When, and to how high? Smile

 

switters's picture
switters
Status: Platinum Member (Offline)
Joined: Jul 19 2008
Posts: 744
Re: Interview with Ted Butler - Silver Could Explode

There's no question that, at present, silver trades like a commodity.  However, there is some question about how long this will continue if the dollar weakens and inflation wins out over deflation.  Silver has certainly functioned as money for the majority of human history, and has recently (in the past 40 years) lost that role.  It does not seem like a leap of faith to assume that silver might regain its monetary status in the current economic climate.

I do believe that silver prices may fall in the short-term if deflation persists.  But for those who currently own silver, that needn't be a concern unless they are planning to sell it during that time frame.  I don't know why anyone would do such a thing, unless they absolutely need the cash and there's no other way to get it.

For those that do not currently own silver, waiting for the price to bottom out during deflation before buying any certainly seems like a good idea in practice.  But what if there's no physical silver available to buy when that time comes?  Already supply of physical silver is extremely tight.  Why should that improve at all if the price continues to drop?  People who own physical silver now would be nuts to sell with the falling price.  Mines are not going to be able to keep producing silver at a profit if the price falls to $7/oz, from what I've read.  The above ground supply of silver is already very limited.  So where would the extra supply come from?

That's why I think now is not a bad time to acquire silver if you can.  And certainly, if you already own it, it's not a bad idea to hang onto it.

JMCSwan's picture
JMCSwan
Status: Bronze Member (Offline)
Joined: Oct 19 2008
Posts: 40
Re: Interview with Ted Butler - Silver Could Explode

hewitt (Mon, 10/20/2008 - 13:04)

Great info on AG!!! ... Thanks! Sounds like common sense, and as a very wise banker recently said something to the effect of, I DON'T INVEST IN ANYTHING I DON'T UNDERSTAND.

I already invested my life and love into the darling of my life, whom requires more UNDERSTANDING than I would wish to bore you with...

So when it comes to other things, I prefer to keep it simple! Simple common sense and I'll invest in you; but I wouldn't invest a penny onto the two-faced sheister stock market, if you put a gun to my head, not even if you put a nuclear red button to my head!

In my opinion -- comparing integrity and professionalism of institutions:

Stock Exchanges of the world: integrity, honour and professionalism: ZERO %

No honour, no integrity, no professionalism -- it's a massive, massive rip-off slavery exchange,by a bunch of lying, thieves in suits with fancy little pieces of paper on thievery from Yale and Harvard.

Las Vegas World Series of Poker or related tournaments: integrity, honour and professionalism: 99%

Las Vegas doesn't promise more than what it is; and the bankers don't run the show they impartially take a small percentage for their professionalism, and treat all tournament players equally. And furthermore, Las Vegas no DISASTER CAPITALISM INVOLVED... just PLAIN POKER. WHAT YOU SEE IS WHAT YOU GET. 

Not sure why John50's got his kittens in a knot about your opinions about silver....

Perhaps he just forgot how to tie a bowline, or drank too much port on starboard! ;-) Maybe he's on a submarine and got a bit of the bends..... ;-)

Xflies's picture
Xflies
Status: Silver Member (Offline)
Joined: Aug 19 2008
Posts: 157
Update on physical gold and silver supply
Hi guys/gals, sorry I haven't posted updates, it's not as if I have changed my opinion at all that this whole shortage of physical gold/silver is just hype, it's that I have been waiting for my Scotiabank representative to get back to me.  I was hoping I would have some good news for all you Americans and that I could give you the name of a person who can help you start accounts and buy your physical bullion but unfortunately, Scotiabank does not have any US branches.  It is difficult to buy bullion with cash because of money laundering rules so visiting the main downtown branch of Scotiabank in Toronto is also out of the question.  I would strongly suggest that if you have close friends or family that you can trust, for you to buy your physical gold/silver through them now.  I have no problems in buying hundreds of thousands of dollars worth of bullion in physical form so just because it's not available to Americans because of money laundering rules or access to accounts, doesn't mean there's a conspiracy and that the physical markets are so tight.  I still believe this all to be hype and only wish I could have given everyone here a good way to buy... but it's not because it's not available.  When you buy junk silver or coins, you still end up paying a hefty premium for what the commodity is really worth.  When I buy my bullion from Scotiabank, they are calling me a nice tight 2 way market considering how volatile the commodity is.
KKPSTEIN's picture
KKPSTEIN
Status: Silver Member (Offline)
Joined: Oct 20 2008
Posts: 120
Re: Update on physical gold and silver supply

Re: Bullion Accounts

Have you ever considered private, off-shore bullion accounts with a reputable private bullion bank?

Xflies's picture
Xflies
Status: Silver Member (Offline)
Joined: Aug 19 2008
Posts: 157
Re: Update on physical gold and silver supply
There have been some posts about that but the concern was always how accessible that was to receive physical bullion if the need came to be.
KKPSTEIN's picture
KKPSTEIN
Status: Silver Member (Offline)
Joined: Oct 20 2008
Posts: 120
Re: Update on physical gold and silver supply

Off shore physical bullion accounts are more reliable than an average bank when you are ready to sell.  Physical, small denonimational PM are good to have as a money for money last resort, if that is the direction you are going.  And it is more practicle to store your wealth in tangible, vaulted, gold bullion via a bullion account.  Are you thinking that the banking sytem will collapse and the offshore bank will not be able to wire the money to you?  The thing about private banks is that you develop a relationship with them, unlike the regular banking system.  Gold has always been about long term relationships and trust.  When the time comes, you'll be able to get your gold/silver.

Ray Hewitt's picture
Ray Hewitt
Status: Gold Member (Offline)
Joined: Apr 5 2008
Posts: 458
Re: Interview with Ted Butler - Silver Could Explode

Yes John I was in silver in the 70s. At that time when I was young and inexperienced, I saw conditions were ripe for a rise in PM, but I took the fatal step of buying on margin. Silver went from $5 to $50 and I lost $15,000. That's why to this day, I buy on long term fundamentals. I read charts, but in context to the fundamentals. Silver was at $5 since about 1980 while consumer prices must have tripled by that time. In 2001 when stocks nosedived, silver and gold started showing signs of life. At $7, I was sure it had come back to life. Downside risk is so low, this is a no-brainer.

My knowldege of economics comes from studying Austrian Theory (mises.org), from being a news junkie, love of history, and a student of crowd psychology. I'm reading the Jesse Livermore book now and it appears my experiences parallel his in many ways. I work a full time job and I don't have the time and experience to do depth analyses like Chris and others do. In this day of the internet, there is a lot of good information out there, well written so people like me can understand what these numbers all mean.

You ask:

Can you share your silver charts showing where price is going? Is silver going up? When, and to how high?

The short answer is that prices are going heights we can't imagine today. I can't give any precise timeline, because the extremes government authorities are going to to prevent the market from correcting itself is beyong anything I can imagine. Every time I think they came to the end of the line, they come up with something else. I bought silver on the grounds that the dollar is going to ground zero like every other fiat currency has in the past. Events of the past few months have confirmed my convictions, but the collapse is looking worse as the correction keeps being postoned.

I was talking to my broker today. He's out of gold and has a few bags of junk silver on hand. Even numistic coins are sold out. People are scared, but they don't know where to go for safety and they've been conditioned to be afraid of gold and silver. This is a worldwide problem with tons of money looking for a safe haven and so little gold and silver to satisfy worldwide demand. It's like being on the Titanic.

I read Ted Butler regularly, but my strategy wouldn't be any different if there were no Ted Butler. The Silver Institute has some good information. http://www.silverinstitute.org/index.php 

john50's picture
john50
Status: Bronze Member (Offline)
Joined: Sep 2 2008
Posts: 74
SILVER HAS GONE DOWN 50% FROM OVER $20 TO UNDER $10 TODAY

I agree with buying silver, I have bought bullion for over 30 years, and have rarely sold any, except  in 1979 and March 15 this year.

What I disagree with is amateurs who hype people into panic buying. The very title is typical boiler-room fear mongering -  "Silver Could Explode" = the train is leaving without you = fear of loss - speculation mistakes of buying for the wrong reason. Six months ago these 'cheerleaders' were screaming that gold is going to $3000/oz and silver back up to $50 in headlines and bullion dealer newsletters everwhere. At the time, gold was over $1000, and silver was over $2.

IN 2008 - SILVER HAS GONE DOWN 50% FROM OVER $20 TO UNDER $10 TODAY - IN SIX MONTHS. 

The point is not a question of buying bullion or not buying, it is buying at the right price  (taking into account supply issues - the supply issues do not concern me, but I know bullion dealers in America are short.) Purchase silver and gold now if you are afraid you cannot locate bullion. Personally, I will be patient and buy much more at a lower cost. I will continue to short COMEX silver futures for another couple weeks or longer, where I have banked more than double the account in 6 months, then will enter at below half price, to quadruple the bullion holdings. If you are happy to buy in the teens and hold to see it go to half price, waiting for a rise years down the road, go for it.

Livermore warned traders should not try to pick bottoms, which trumps the bravado of buying as a contrarian. It is said the market can be irrational longer than you can remain solvent. In other words - avoid the "catch a falling knife" - as a classic trader mistake. Wait until the bottom is in, confirmed, and the market proves it has forces to move price action higher. If you want to act like a prudent investor.

 silver-oct20.jpg

DavidC's picture
DavidC
Status: Silver Member (Offline)
Joined: Sep 29 2008
Posts: 243
Re: Update on physical gold and silver supply

Xflies,

I THINK I understand what you're saying, but can you just confirm, are you saying that you DO think there's a conspiracy and the physical markets ARE tight,or that you DON'T think there's a conspiracy and the markets AREN'T tight?

Once again, the market sold off about $10 today just after 2 p.m. London time, just in time for the US opening. Hmmm.

switters's picture
switters
Status: Platinum Member (Offline)
Joined: Jul 19 2008
Posts: 744
Re: SILVER HAS GONE DOWN 50% FROM OVER $20 TO UNDER $10 TODAY
[quote=john50]

If you are happy to buy in the teens and hold to see it go to half price, waiting for a rise years down the road, go for it.

[/quote]

John,

You seem very certain about what will happen with silver over the next several years.  I am not saying that what you suggest isn't possible (i.e. price of silver dropping, and then having to wait for "several years" for it to go back up), but I don't think that's set in stone either.

Xflies - I never said anything about a conspiracy.  Only that supply was tight in the US and in Europe.  That's a fact.  I don't know about Canada and don't really care because I don't live there.

john50's picture
john50
Status: Bronze Member (Offline)
Joined: Sep 2 2008
Posts: 74
please show respect for others

Hewittr, I am sure you are a smart guy, and an asset here on the forum. I felt you have been harsh, judgemental, and belittling in several of your posts whenever someone has a different point of view or experience. Smile

[quote]I see too that you know next to nothing about silver. Silver was a monetary metal long before gold. It goes as far back as bibiblical days when gold was an ornamental metal. The shekel mentioned in the Bible was a unit of silver.[/quote]

I am an institutional trader, that began with bullion around 1975, and I trade full time. My background is Economics, History Financial Planning, and Law. My  expertise is in financial cycle history. I have owned a brokerage company and just sold my ownership of a bank. I have taught Biblical stewardship and financial history. I could go on, but the point is:  please show respect for others - and don't assume that everyone is less informed than you are.

***********************************

The Shekel - summary

Shekels were originally a measure of weight based on Hebrew barley storage receipt, not a silver coin. The earliest shekels were not money, but were an ancient Hebrew unit of weight equal to about 180 grains, used as other units of weight such as grams and troy ounces for trading before the advent of coins.

The first known usage is from Egypt and Mesopotamia around 3000 BC, as a form of receipting grain stored in temple granaries. One explanation is given for the origination of this word as to have originally applied to a specific mass of barley, and the first syllable of the word, 'she' was Akkadian for barley.

Two millenium later, a Shekel could be a gold or silver coin equal in weight to one of these units, especially the chief silver coin of the Hebrews, dating back to around 700 - 500 BC. Silver Tyrian shekels are thought to be the infamous "30 pieces of silver" paid to Judas in the New Testament.

Since 1980, the sheqel has been the currency of the modern state of Israel, first the Israeli sheqel, then (since 1985) the Israeli new sheqel.

KKPSTEIN's picture
KKPSTEIN
Status: Silver Member (Offline)
Joined: Oct 20 2008
Posts: 120
Re: Interview with Ted Butler - Silver Could Explode
I just wanted to comment also that the financially elite never trade gold.  They just constantly acquire it in their porfolio knowing that the tides and ebbs of the economy can always be ridden out. Even when it dips to the extreme lows like we saw in the mid-nineties, they don't panic or care.  Also, the flipping mentality in PM is a N. American one.  Most other cultures the world sit on their gold, rarely selling it. 
Ray Hewitt's picture
Ray Hewitt
Status: Gold Member (Offline)
Joined: Apr 5 2008
Posts: 458
Re: Interview with Ted Butler - Silver Could Explode

Hahaha. The joke's on me John50. You know more about silver than I gave  you credit for.

What you say is true for a trader. For a long term investor, the Comex prices are academic. They don't reflect physical market prices which have been increasing regardless of what the spot price does.Of course that is assuming you can find a broker with stock.

john50's picture
john50
Status: Bronze Member (Offline)
Joined: Sep 2 2008
Posts: 74
Re: SILVER HAS GONE DOWN 50% FROM OVER $20 TO UNDER $10 TODAY
[quote=switters]John, You seem very certain about what will happen with silver over the next several years.  I am not saying that what you suggest isn't possible (i.e. price of silver dropping, and then having to wait for "several years" for it to go back up), but I don't think that's set in stone either.[/quote]

Hi Switters, I have no crystal ball, and have too much experience to pontificate on what is going to happen. As a silver trader I have 2 key rules.

  1. Do not trade against the trend.
  2. Do not try to pick bottoms (let the market prove them).

What I have is a view of history, decades of experience, and a team of indicators - that I can share with you. Look at the chart from the last American deflation in 1930. Silver and Gold ought to perform as it historically has performed. Historically, price corrections ending in a C wave have always ended in 5 waves (no know exception this century). I placed a box on the 1930's chart to show roughly where we are in the count right now, I can give a more accurate chart tonight when the trade desk is closed. Unless the market shows me different, I see no reason to imagine new behavior as the basis for trading.Is it guaranteed, NO. (never can be guaranteed). It is all about probabilities, and putting the odds in your favor by waiting for the down trend to end before going long (up).

depression-silver3.gif

I also have current technical, fundamental, and sentiment indicators as a trader, and they point down, along with deflation at this time.  I will buy silver after I see 5 waves down, and a small wave up, then enter on the small retracement. The next support level is $8.50, it will get tested soon, and likely broken. It is anticipated to see a 4th wave rally, that fools many like Ted Butler who are keen on any sign of a change in trend, but one more new low will be set after that rally falls, in the 5th wave.  

I agree with KKPStein, bullion is a long term hold for most institutional buyers. I just hate holding on for a couple decades of declining prices like the 1980-2000, from $50 to $4. My purpose is not to flip or speculate, it is to insure against inflation, (and it looks/feels so nice.) I just see prefer to re-allocate when the market looks to have peaked in the multi-decade view. 

The reason prices are going down is Hedge Funds and Banks are forced to sell assets, including bullion, to raise cash and improve their balance sheet. This is far more powerful a market force than the people preparing for financial Armageddon. 

JMCSwan's picture
JMCSwan
Status: Bronze Member (Offline)
Joined: Oct 19 2008
Posts: 40
Re: Interview with Ted Butler - Silver Could Explode

John, you say....

I am an institutional trader, that began with bullion around 1975, and I trade full time. My background is Economics, History Financial Planning, and Law. My  expertise is in financial cycle history. I have owned a brokerage company and just sold my ownership of a bank. I have taught Biblical stewardship and financial history. I could go on, but the point is:  please show respect for others - and don't assume that everyone is less informed than you are. (my emphasis)

John, would you be so kind as to respect us with your INFORMED analysis of the CIA and various CIA FRONT COMPANIES OPINIONS ON THE CURRENT MARKET 'CRISIS'????

JMCSwan

Ray Hewitt's picture
Ray Hewitt
Status: Gold Member (Offline)
Joined: Apr 5 2008
Posts: 458
Re: Interview with Ted Butler - Silver Could Explode

John

I'm curious. Are you a paper trader? I ask that because I see increased probabilities of a short squeeze in the months? ahead. How is that built into your calculations?

You might be too hard on Ted Butler. He's been consistent about a buy and hold strategy and he doesn't predict price movements. Two other writers, Jason Hummel and John Mauldin, approach silver from different directions and come to conclusions similar to Butler's. I look forward to your updates in the future too.

I've long wondered about silver's prices during those years. I remember a famous name in those days, Bernard Baruch, who is said to have made a killing by switching from stocks to silver before the crash.

It is anticipated to see a 4th wave rally, that fools many like Ted Butler who are keen on any sign of a change in trend, but one more new low will be set after that rally falls, in the 5th wave. 

Presumably with practice one can master Elliot Wave Analyses. I find I can't make any sense out of it because the points are too subjective. 

switters's picture
switters
Status: Platinum Member (Offline)
Joined: Jul 19 2008
Posts: 744
Re: SILVER HAS GONE DOWN 50% FROM OVER $20 TO UNDER $10 TODAY

John, 

I just bought silver about three weeks ago so I'm not in bad shape if silver performs like it did during the depression and we are where you believe we are on the chart you posted.  It looks like we're not far from the bottom, and I bought in pretty close to that.  

If the housing market bottoms out in five years, I'll probably want to trade some silver and gold for a piece of productive land with a house on it.  Hopefully the price of silver and gold have started moving in the other direction by then.

I'd be curious to know what your "medium-term" outlook (i.e. 4-8 years) is for silver.

 

 

Ray Hewitt's picture
Ray Hewitt
Status: Gold Member (Offline)
Joined: Apr 5 2008
Posts: 458
The Comex Fraud

This clip from Jason Hummel:

First, the biggest fraud is the COMEX.  90% to 99% of contracts don't result in delivery, but this market dominates the price.

 

http://www.cftc.gov/dea/options/deacmxsof.htm

 

With 142,578 contracts outstanding, for 5000 oz. each, that's 712 million ounces, which is more than all the world's silver mines produce each year, which is about 550 million ounces according to the CPM group.

 

The COMEX warehouses only store 133 million ounces, and not all of that is registered for delivery against a contract, therefore, there is paper contract fraud selling going on, which manipulates the price down.

 

I understand that paper contracts can also allow the silver price to be manipulated higher than normal.  For example, if 85% of the positions of paper longs were concentrated and held by 2 traders who were short term gamblers who did not intend to take delivery, and if all of the sellers were only the mines who had every intention of delivering silver, prices would be manipulated higher as the paper long positions were purchased.

 

Likewise, if paper futures are sold, by entities such as banks who have no silver, and don't sell any silver, and don't have any intention of delivering any silver, then that would manipulate prices to the downside.

John.

It occurs to me that if it is true that Comex prices are a fraud, then that means they don't reflect real world prices. That, I submit, is a weakness in your reliance on short term movements. You think we haven't seen the bottom, yet physical prices are rising. Any thoughts?

This is a good read on frauds. http://www.24hgold.com/news-gold-silver-The-World-is-Filled-with-Silver-Fraud.aspx?langue=en&articleid=331570&contributor=Jason+Hommel&lastpublishingyear=2008&filter=latest

switters's picture
switters
Status: Platinum Member (Offline)
Joined: Jul 19 2008
Posts: 744
Re: SILVER HAS GONE DOWN 50% FROM OVER $20 TO UNDER $10 TODAY

[quote=john50]Silver and Gold ought to perform as it historically has performed
[/quote]

John,

Forgot to ask you about this.  What of those who say that gold and silver will perform differently this time around because silver is no longer considered as money (as it was in the 30s) and gold is no longer backing our currency? 

Xflies's picture
Xflies
Status: Silver Member (Offline)
Joined: Aug 19 2008
Posts: 157
Physical bullion conspiracy

Hi David, Switters is quite right... he never said anything about a conspiracy, but others have insinuated it... plus many of the articles referred to on this site, point to a possible conspiracy.  I found this board so much more useful when it wasn't being used as a hype machine for self-affirmation.  I really like the informed debates/banter from people that are truly objective.  I DON"T think there is any sort of conspiracy going on with physical gold... I am not sure why it is tight in the US but I've seen posts here that think that just because a market maker quotes a premium on the gold price that this was because there's this huge physical buying going on and that there could be a market develop for physical versus paper.  They ignore the fact that one of the reasons why ANY market maker would quote prices different than the financial is because their quote has to reflect the market volatility of the financial.  For example, a gold trader isn't going to hedge every time some retail guy wants a 1 oz bar so he might consolidate positions at the end of the day and then readjust his hedge.  The problem is that there has been a lot of volatlity so if he doesn't quote a wider market, he is more likely to lose money.  That being said, Scotiabank quoted me a nice $10 bid/ask spread which isn't bad at all.  For those that want to believe that there is run on physical gold happening and hope to profit from it, they definitely need to take a look at what's happening in places like Canada because eventually the gold will find itself coming down into the US and it also destroys anyone's theory that suggests there is a shortage beyond anything local.  Others have posted on buying junk silver or even coins but keep in mind, you pay a hefty premium for anything that's processed.

 I've offered to sell my gold at only a 30% premium to spot and no inquiries, not even from those who want to verify if this is a real offer or not... why?  Because they don't want to know the answer... some people just like to believe in things that aren't true.  If you want to purchase gold, I'll sell it to you and you can have a lawyer handle the transaction. 

 

john50's picture
john50
Status: Bronze Member (Offline)
Joined: Sep 2 2008
Posts: 74
Re: Interview with Ted Butler - Silver Could Explode
[quote]

John, would you be so kind as to respect us with your INFORMED analysis of the CIA and various CIA FRONT COMPANIES OPINIONS ON THE CURRENT MARKET 'CRISIS'????  - JMCSwan[/quote]

Yes, but not here in this thread, out of respect for staying on topic. Why don't you start a new thread, and I'll find it. 

I have a weakness for David Ike, Alex Jones, Ed Griffin, and the many other journalists that do a great job presenting alternative views. I enjoyed some of your posts this morning. 

 

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Login or Register to post comments