Informal Poll: I'm curious, what number would you select?

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Informal Poll: I'm curious, what number would you select?

Informal Poll: I'm curious, what number would you select?

  1. Total Collapse, Depression, Loss of Freedom/Republic (Commonly referred to as Democracy), Martial Law
  2. Depression, Devalued Dollar, Recovery Within 10 Years, Limited Martial Law, Democracy/Republic Continues
  3. Depression, Devalued Dollar, Quick Recovery, Limited Martial Law, Democracy/Republic Continues
  4. Depression averted by something new to manufacture which brings U.S. from  a -12%manufacturer  back to 25%+ manufacturer
  5. Recession lags on for another year or two
  6. Recession is over, recovery will be another year or two
  7. Other:

Inflation/Deflation

     A. Inflation

     B. Deflation

 

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Re: Informal Poll: I'm curious, what number would you ...

3 and A for me

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Re: Informal Poll: I'm curious, what number would you ...

Well, with what we "know" about the exponential function in regards to the 3 E's, I just can't see anything but 3 or possibly 4, or- yikes!- something worse.  I'm guessing "A" but my guess is as good as any body's, I guess...Is there something between 3 and 5 that doesn't involve manufacturing?  Is 4 just a wishful thinking magic bullet??  I guess I'd hope for a massive personal and community decoupling from the "system" with some sort of paradigm-busting solution, which would probably bring about its own problems (or is that whats happening now??).  I'm anxious to see Dr. M's response!  Aloha, Steve.

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Re: Informal Poll: I'm curious, what number would you ...

I Would choose "7" and A+B.  First I would fix the principles in which our monetary system functions but in order to do that we would have to understand the consequences of it and also understand what the problem is with our monetary system.  The A+B is that I would inflate the money supply(actually put final payment into the system)(we currently have no money in our system as all we use 100% of the time is credit) and then I would make a debt based money a thing of the past by deflating and then eliminating all credit and interest in the system.

This next blog really hits it off quite well, plus he's a friend of mine!

Taken from www.moneyaswealth.blogspot.com

 

The Creation of Money

 
 
It's clear, if money exists, it had to be created. It was not in Eden nor is it a product of evolution. It's man made.
 
Once it's created, it has to move into our economy.
 
 
Consider this: There are only 3 ways to get money into the economy.
  1. Gift it in
  2. Loan it in
  3. Spend it in
Each method has its own set of consequences.
 
 
GIFT
FIRST, suppose that money is gifted in.
Gifting money into the economy would mean that they print up a bunch of money and hand it out. Perhaps a wagon load of money is parked on every street corner. You go pick up a handful when you need it. Or they give you money, maybe by check or electronic deposit. But that money does not need to be paid back - it's a gift.

If you did not produce anything in order to facilitate the new money creation, in a very short time, there would be more money than there is stuff to buy. Some economists say, that would cause inflation (later, we will discuss the bigger cause of inflation).

Additionally, many people would chose not to work - why work when all I have to do is walk down to the corner and grab a handful of money? As people stopped working, soon, there would be shortages in food - and everything else too! Lots of money with no production is a disastrous way to run an economy.

CONSEQUENCES: 1. An unmotivated work force. 2. Lack of innovation. 3. Social decay. 4. Severe drop in production. 5. Economic collapse.

That's gifting the money into the economy.
 
 
 
LOAN
SECOND, new money is currently loaned into the economy.
New money is created each time a loan is made.
New money!

When you get a loan to buy a car or a house, the bank creates new money and loans it to you, putting it into your account, so that you can make your purchase. When you buy a new pair of shoes on your credit card, the bank creates new money and you pay the shoe store. None of that money comes from any one's savings account. They never loan out a person's savings account for a house mortgage - your savings would then be unavailable for 30 years! It's not done that way. Instead, what you get is newly created money when the loan is made.

QUESTION: When you borrow that money for the house, car or shoes, does the bank also create the money that you own for interest? Banks are the only place that new money comes from - do they create the interest they want back on the loans that they make?

ANSWER: Never. That money comes from loans taken out by someone else.

That's the glitch. Money to pay interest is never created. Therefore, we can never get out of debt. What we owe is always more than what has been created.

Oh, we can personally shift the debt off of ourselves and onto another. Or, we can get money to pay interest that exists in our economy through massive bankruptcies, identity theft and fraud, but we cannot pay the loans plus the interest due on the loans - with only the loans.

CONSEQUENCES: 1. Ever increasing debt. 2. Financial hardship for everyone. 3. The debt-money system institutionalizes corruption. 4. Boom-bust-bailout cycles that end in economic collapse.
 
 
 
SPEND
THIRD, we can create the money, debt free, interest free, tax free and inflation free and spend the new money into the economy to pay for our infrastructure needs.

That's right. We could create the new money that we need to pay for our needed infrastructure rebuild. How? The same way it's done now, except for one thing - it wouldn't be done as a loan!

CONSEQUENCES: 1. Decreased bank default rate and increased liquidity. 2. Stabilized economy and jobs created. 3. Decreased taxes, increased savings and balanced budgets. 4. Lower fuel costs 5. Increase in overall spending power. 6. Safer, cleaner roads and bridges. 7. Energy independence.
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Re: Informal Poll: I'm curious, what number would you ...

 Gift, Loan, and Spend are certainly three options.  There is a fourth option, which has been chosen by people in at least 19 out of 20 centuries and probably more:  Produce the money - i.e., let people choose, out of all the products made in their society, which one contains the best money-qualities, and then use it.  Why is this option not mentioned?

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Re: Informal Poll: I'm curious, what number would you ...

Patrick,

All money is produced, as money is just a man-made concept of the mind, but there are only three ways you can move that money into circulation.  Gift, loan, and spend.  Right now what we use for money clearly, is what the people have freely chosen, as there is NO LAW that states that book entry bank credit is money, but it is what is actually the true money in our system.  The banks always pump that stuff out, and I know we've all been told free market money is the only way to go, but the sinister reality is the banks fear the people regulating our money system back to a system that benifits the people.  Just as gold and silver did under the free coinage act, except there never was nor will be enough gold/silver to make a monetary system out of it.  BUT we could apply those principles to what we use for money right now, today, and begin to see our prosperity, liberty, and everything else return to whom it rightfully belongs.  You and I.

History has proven time and time again the people always choose the easiest, most convienent form of money, unfortunatly then have never understood the principles under which money functions.

Clearly the people have chosen to use our current form of money(book entry) over all other forms of money, and in my opinion we probably use the greatest form of money ever invented.  The problem is that our money has been debauched.  It has been switched from an evidence of wealth to an evidence of indebtiness.  It wouldn't matter what we use for money (gold, silver, paper notes, book-keeping bank entry, ect) if it operated under debt based principles, it would, in time transfer all of the producers property over to the non-producers.

If we had an honest money system(wealth based or SPENT in not LENT into circulation) the producers would receive the benifit of their production and would also own the money (right now the banking system OWNS 100% of the money, all the time, while we mearly get to borrow it, at interest of course.

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Re: Informal Poll: I'm curious, what number would you ...

I say 2 and ultimately A. This is certainly what I will prepare for in the near term. BTW, Robert Chilmers had a nice piece in the Washington Post about "Where the Crisis Came From". It was in our Austin opinion page today and written well enough that some of us blockheads can get the picture.

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Re: Informal Poll: I'm curious, what number would you ...

First my apologies to Davos, for being an accomplice on what is now a full-fledged hi-jacking of his innocent polling questionnaire thread.

Now on to money.  Thomas, I do not agree with your characterization that,

All money is produced, as money is just a man-made concept of the mind.

We need to look back to the origins of money to understand what it truly is.  In a nutshell, money is the form that excess production takes when converted into an easily tradable commodity. 

In essence, any kind of excess production could be used as money.  It could be the extra omelets I made at breakfast, or it could be the extra grain I produced this season, or it could be the extra furniture I made this winter.  Anything that is valued by our society could be used as money, and many things have.  I'm sure I do not have to give you the myriad of examples that I'm sure you know have been used as money throughout history.  The point is, anything of value could be traded for anything else of value.  All free societies eventually come to value one of their commodities or finished goods above all others with respect to their money qualities, and that is what we historically mean by money.

None of these things that have been used as money are "man-made concepts of the mind".  They are real, tangible, and useful goods with intrinsic value.  Unless you are going to value paper or electronic book entries for their value in BTUs, I can hardly see any intrinsic value in them at all, and even if I did, I cannot see why printing a "100" on one note makes it 100X more valuable than one with a "1" on it.   A man-made concept of the mind is what fiat money is and any other so-called money that does not have any intrinsic value at its core.  

I have yet to see how you propose to spend money into existence without running into massive inflation, corruption by the money-controllers, and the inability to arrive at market-determined (rather than government enforced) interest rates.

Back to Davos:  1, then more deflation followed by  inflation, then massive collapse, then the 4th turning.  I think that's E (may as well make it E, in honor of the 3E's)  ;)  

 

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Re: Informal Poll: I'm curious, what number would you ...

I'd say #7 and a powerful B followed by a game-ending A unless citizens force a change.

I don't see how any of the options is possible except 1 and 7.  We don't have a republic...we simply don't unless/until the Wall St/DC empire stands down and Congress and states claim their power and do their jobs again and the only way to do that is for 350,000,000 citizens to wakeup and start doing THEIR jobs again.  I know people are thinking "he's nuts!"  Look at the facts...extremely powerful interests responsible for crashing our economy, bankrupting all the states (can't have a republic without strong states), killing small towns, sucking up small banks, etc. just told our DC government to steal trillions and give it to them.  Does anyone think those interests have democracy/republic in mind?  Those interests also pushed Clinton into NAFTA and Bush toward NAU.  They're taking us down a decidedly different path. And those interests own DC...those are the facts we see playing out daily in front of our eyes.

It's interesting that in your options you've assumed the US as a given--assuming the status quo idea of a nation-state that will continue indefinitely.  There are serious efforts by serious people to end that, to evolve us to regional government and global government...nations-states are so inefficient ya know.  :)  That is the likely option unless the 350,000,000 stand up soon.  And so this is the #7 I think is coming...a long way off maybe...but it's the general direction we've been heading for a long time.

 

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Re: Informal Poll: I'm curious, what number would you ...

Hi Davos,

Its good to see you posting outside the Digest.

Can I answer 8C (all the above)?

A deflationary depression followed by a semi-hyperinflationary depression, with some "goldilocks" in the transition period.

No martial law or collapse of the US.

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Re: Informal Poll: I'm curious, what number would you ...

B and A.

7

We already have depression, we already have limited martial law, we no longer have a democracy or republic in the true sense, recovery will take 10 to 20 years but we will have declined while China will rise.  And quite frankly, I think the geopolitical scenario prophesied in the Book of Revelation is highly probable.

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Re: Informal Poll: I'm curious, what number would you ...

Patrick,

Can you please address how you would have money put into circulation?

Also

If you want to use your production as money, what is stopping you from overproducing whatever you make right now and using it for money?  Wouldn't that be a barter system?  Can you please put into detail exactly how your plan would work?

Also, what would the service sector use for money since they only provide services (secretaries, security guards, ect.) and do not produce anything?

What would you do with all the current outstanding debt?

What would you do for the retirement community who has spent decades saving for their retirements to be told they now have to produce in order to live.

What about people who are disabled, or to old to work?

 

Thanking you for your answers in advance

Thomas Hedin

 

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Re: Informal Poll: I'm curious, what number would you ...

I agree, Davos, good to see you out here.

For me it all hinges on oil -- what peak oil scenario plays out. If we're able to maintain oil supplies in a plateau-like fashion for some time, then I probably agree with you, Davos, 3A. Though how illusory is money, if we have oil can we prop things up for decades more?

If the more dire (yet seemingly the most data-driven) scenarios play out, then I think we could be in for 1A.

But do you know the beauty of all this, guys, we don't have to wait long. The day of reckoning is within five years, and we'll all look like foolish, secular rapturists or the smartest guys in the room.

My five year time table is in reference to peak oil. If five years from now the data looks like it does today, and we're still saying how bad things will be in another five -- that that's when things will really get bad -- then we'll know that we we're playing with bad data today. But if things proceed as they "should" -- I think most here would have read Chris' oil reports of a few months back and the scary projected shortfalls he demonstrated in just a couple of years -- then we'll know we were "right."

Tired now. Night fellas.

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Re: Informal Poll: I'm curious, what number would you ...

 Thomas,

I will be happy to answer your questions even though you have not answered a single one of mine, either on this or any other thread.  I cannot in fact find a money-related question you have answered from anyone on any thread.  Just what kind of "talk" show do you host?  Sounds more like "20 Questions, No Answers".

Can you please address how you would have money put into circulation?

The government cannot produce money anymore than it can produce anything else.  Governments only exist via the excess production of others, whose production is taxed in order for the government to pay for services.  Therefore, money should arise locally, based on the goods produced by each jurisdiction, and "voted" upon capitalistically, with the market choosing the medium of exchange best suited for the jurisdiction, or geographic area in question.  

There is no need then, to "put money into circulation".  In an economy with excess production, money will arise naturally, based upon what is produced.  Government-enforced notes, or fiat money, is not produced.  It is merely fabricated and is used to defraud producers.  

It follows that government cannot exist until there is excess production on part of the people in order for the costs of government to be afforded.  That is why government is a local proposition.  Its purpose, its costs, and its uses are best controlled, funded and appreciated at the most local of levels.  As you move beyond that level, it loses its purpose, oversteps its bounds, and becomes an instrument of tyranny rather than a tool for justice and prosperity.  

If you want to use your production as money, what is stopping you from overproducing whatever you make right now and using it for money?  Wouldn't that be a barter system?  Can you please put into detail exactly how your plan would work?

Nothing is stopping me, Thomas.  I routinely convert my excess production into things I can use, eat, or save.  The saving part is a bit tricky in a paper-money world, but there are ways.

Also, what would the service sector use for money since they only provide services (secretaries, security guards, ect.) and do not produce anything?

Service sectors rest upon an over-productive sector which makes the existence of the service sector possible.  All societies with any level of complexity beyond agriculture and mining require excess productivity at those levels in order to support all other specialties.  Why do you think it is necessary for service-providers to use anything but the same money their productive-sector is using?  Money comes from the ground up, figuratively and literally.  The service sector services the producing sector and would therefore arise from the payment of monies from the producing sector to the service sector.

What would you do with all the current outstanding debt?

If you are referring to the debt we owe the world, we have no choice but to produce our way out of it.  Well, that's not true.  That would be the only fair choice.  We could be unfair and simply cheat them out of it, go to war, or have a change in government whereby the victors claim old debts are void.  I prefer the fair way.  

What would you do for the retirement community who has spent decades saving for their retirements to be told they now have to produce in order to live.  What about people who are disabled, or to old to work?

It is not a return to sound money that would take away their retirements.  Their retirements are about to be taken way due to the collapse of our existing currency.  You are asking me how to rescue a generation that is the victim of another money-system's fraud.  There is only one way retirees or anyone else in need is going to have a chance, and that is by the rest of us becoming much more productive while at the same time desiring to help those in need.    A new money system may not be able to save the victims of the fraud we've been enduring.  All a new system can do is prevent a repeat of what we've already done.

 

Once again, I will try to get answers to my previous questions:  How would your system avoid run-away inflation, corruption by the money-controllers, and how would it provide market-driven interest rates rather than government-mandated ones?

 

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Re: Informal Poll: I'm curious, what number would you ...

Davos,

I consider 1 or possibly 7 with B for the next 6 months to a year and then A.

Our freedom has allready been usurped by the private banking interests and depression is really allready here if you remove the fuzzy numbers so the last leg to bring about #1 is the collapse and martial law part. Collapse is underway as the currency continues to devalue and our surplus production dwindles which removes support for more and more service sector/government job categories. The martial law will come about to deal with people who finally realize they have nothing more to lose and resort to getting even with TPTB in whatever form that may take.

I work towards a #7 which involves local resiliance in small communities which have been able to organize and lead the way toward surviving in a future with dwindling oil supplies and resources. I think #1 is underway but perhaps less noticeable to those expecting an "event". The Titanic turns almost imperceptably but it turns nonetheless albiet not in time. It's time to get the lifejackets on and man the lifeboats because this ship will sink despite what we have been told.

Patrick,

I think your hijack is very clearly stated. The surplus production is a really good way to explain how a currency comes into being.

Coop

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Re: Informal Poll: I'm curious, what number would you ...

I think the closest would be 2, with a short but severe B followed by a near-hyperinflationary A.  To be more specific, I would figure a partial collapse situation mostly in terms of loss of some federal and state services.  Probably no official dissolution or breakup of the union, but more an involuntary loss of federal control (due to eventual inability to pay to provide services) with states asserting more of their independence in the face of federal funding to states drying up.  Perhaps some regional groups of states form partnerships on certain economic, trade, and possibly even monetary issues.  Long term (5 or more years from now) I think it's likely we will see a social renaissance leading to a less centralized more democratic nation, but between now and then I expect a number of additional infringements to personal freedoms.  It's those infringements and the eventual inability of the federal and state governments to improve the peoples' worsening situation that I see spurring said social renaissance and revolution.  With any luck it'll be largely peaceful, but that's not something I can predict.

- Nickbert

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Re: Informal Poll: I'm curious, what number would you ...

I'm currently subscribe to the "The Long Descent" concept as described by Greer in his book of that name, so number 3 works temporarily and the slide begins again in something less than 10 years. Some horrible inflation (A) is soon to begin (year or so) and our economic system will see some major change including the way we play with money.

Jim

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Re: Informal Poll: I'm curious, what number would you ...

Thomas,

I will be happy to answer your questions even though you have not answered a single one of mine, either on this or any other thread.  I cannot in fact find a money-related question you have answered from anyone on any thread.  Just what kind of "talk" show do you host?  Sounds more like "20 Questions, No Answers".

 

I'm currently in the beginning stages of a TV show production and I will be returning to radio in a short time.  Again, this all takes time, and this Friday and Saturday I am at a convention 400 miles away from home way down in Kansas City, MI.

For some reason it's hard to fight the money power when they have unlimited money and I have to operate on a budget.

I ask you questions because I know that I don't have all the answers, and I like to ask lots of questions because I know I can always learn something new, because as much as I would like to know everything, I know that I do not.

Can you please address how you would have money put into circulation?

The government cannot produce money anymore than it can produce anything else.  Governments only exist via the excess production of others, whose production is taxed in order for the government to pay for services.  Therefore, money should arise locally, based on the goods produced by each jurisdiction, and "voted" upon capitalistically, with the market choosing the medium of exchange best suited for the jurisdiction, or geographic area in question.  

There is no need then, to "put money into circulation".  In an economy with excess production, money will arise naturally, based upon what is produced.  Government-enforced notes, or fiat money, is not produced.  It is merely fabricated and is used to defraud producers.  

It follows that government cannot exist until there is excess production on part of the people in order for the costs of government to be afforded.  That is why government is a local proposition.  Its purpose, its costs, and its uses are best controlled, funded and appreciated at the most local of levels.  As you move beyond that level, it loses its purpose, oversteps its bounds, and becomes an instrument of tyranny rather than a tool for justice and prosperity.  

The government can produce money and it should, but the fact remains that our government does NOT create any money.  Only private commerical banks create money, and they do it every time someone takes out a mortgage on their property.

If there is so much excess production to go around, and so much extra, why would people care if the government took some away from them?  Who would even want that excess if everyone already had to much?

I agree with you that money should arise locally, but I believe we should have a uniform money system across the country.  It's true the people should be able to control how much money is in circulation, but that is not the case as of right now.  The banking system absolutely, without question controls how much money is in circulation.  If they stop making loans, and people continue to pay on their principle, the money supply will dry up as that priniciple part of the loan is destroyed.  Again, the true money in our system is interest bearing bank credit(debt) not government enforced privately issued bank non redemable bank notes.

If there is no need to have money put into circulation they why are we having an economic crisis?  Who created the crisis and why did they create it?

I still can't figure out why you so many people are hung up on "fiat money".  At best, only 3% of what is in circulation can be called Fiat Money(FRN's, Government issued coins) the real true money(bank credit) is not in any sense of the word fiat money at all.  Matter of fact, there is no law calling it money, nor could it be called money in any sense of the word.  It's just a promise to pay you money which isn't court enforceable.

 

May I ask you a question, would a government for the people, and by the people allow private commericial banks to issue and control the money and then levy oppresive taxes on the people to pay the bankers their massive profits,

or

would a govenment for the people create it's own money and spend it into circulation for the benifit of the people?

 

I absolutely agree with you that the local people should control how much money they need to conduct their business, which is why I'm confused as to why you aren't shouting out for the Minnesota Transportation Act.

Here is a three part video I put together with Byron, and from the sounds of it, it is exactly what you've been looking for!

 part 1

 part 2

 part 3

 

If you want to use your production as money, what is stopping you from overproducing whatever you make right now and using it for money?  Wouldn't that be a barter system?  Can you please put into detail exactly how your plan would work?

Nothing is stopping me, Thomas.  I routinely convert my excess production into things I can use, eat, or save.  The saving part is a bit tricky in a paper-money world, but there are ways.

But if you're bartering the things you produce for other things how is paper robbing you?  We don't use paper for money, we use bank credit.  Can you tell me what the difference is between a 1 dollar bill and a 20 dollar bill?  Is there any difference in the quality of the paper or the ink used on it?  Is there more paper in one bill or another?  What is the only difference between the two bills that determains it's worth?

 

Also, what would the service sector use for money since they only provide services (secretaries, security guards, ect.) and do not produce anything?

Service sectors rest upon an over-productive sector which makes the existence of the service sector possible.  All societies with any level of complexity beyond agriculture and mining require excess productivity at those levels in order to support all other specialties.  Why do you think it is necessary for service-providers to use anything but the same money their productive-sector is using?  Money comes from the ground up, figuratively and literally.  The service sector services the producing sector and would therefore arise from the payment of monies from the producing sector to the service sector.

What would the non-producers pay the producers with?  From my understanding earlier you said get rid of money and only use your production?  Wouldn't it make more sense to have your money represent your production instead of representing how much you owe at the bank?

Money does not come from the ground up.  Currently money only comes into exsistance through an interest bearing loan.  There is no money until somebody borrows it.  Remember that money is created when loans are issued and debts incurred.  There are no exceptions.  Another way of saying it is the only way we are prosperios for us to go collectively massively deeper into dept to inject lots more money into the system.  I think we both know and understand that having that type of money system simpley isn't sustainable to the producing public, but is very sustainable to the banking system.

 

What would you do with all the current outstanding debt?

If you are referring to the debt we owe the world, we have no choice but to produce our way out of it.  Well, that's not true.  That would be the only fair choice.  We could be unfair and simply cheat them out of it, go to war, or have a change in government whereby the victors claim old debts are void.  I prefer the fair way.  

I am referring to the total debt(federal governmen, state, local, county, business, private, ect) which 100% of that came into exsistance in the form of an interest bearing debt owed to a privately owned and controlled banking system, that operates under the economic laws of destruction.

How could we produce our way out of a monetary debt?  When is the last time you did any form of production and had it turn into money (and not capture someone else's borrowed money).

How would going to war pay off a monetary debt?

How would a change in government whereby the victors(i'm confused are you suggesting to overthrow the government when the government creates no money, only private banks do).  claim old debts are void work?  If you destroy the debt, you also destroy the money.  Also if you destroyed the debt on social security, what are you going to do with all them people since they will have no income?

I'm a firm believer that we have the greatest form of government ever invented, it's just the people running it need to be replaced.

Now would you change how money goes into circulation after uhmmm had your victors take over?  I think the biggest problem we face right now is that people who go into government are power mad, and it almost seems to me that if you had your way, nothing would change.

If you preffer the fair way, wouldn't the fair way be to let the people own the means of their production(the money)?

What would you do for the retirement community who has spent decades saving for their retirements to be told they now have to produce in order to live.  What about people who are disabled, or to old to work?

It is not a return to sound money that would take away their retirements.  Their retirements are about to be taken way due to the collapse of our existing currency.  You are asking me how to rescue a generation that is the victim of another money-system's fraud.  There is only one way retirees or anyone else in need is going to have a chance, and that is by the rest of us becoming much more productive while at the same time desiring to help those in need.    A new money system may not be able to save the victims of the fraud we've been enduring.  All a new system can do is prevent a repeat of what we've already done.

 Is a sound currency money that is owned by the people, free from debt, and free from interest?  Would it matter what the currency is made of if only the banking system lent it out at interest?

I'm not asking you to rescue a generation that is the victim of another money system fraud.  I'm not asking you to care about our generation, or the one before us.  I'm asking you what would you do to ensure that the next generation will not have to suffer through a money system that only benifits the banks and is designed at its core to transfer all the real wealth away from the producers into the hands of the non-producers(the bankers).

Once again, I will try to get answers to my previous questions:  How would your system avoid run-away inflation, corruption by the money-controllers, and how would it provide market-driven interest rates rather than government-mandated ones?

A return to a wealth based money system would avoid run away price inflation by addressing the root cause of the increase in the cost of doing business, INTEREST.  If we could ever get the people to understand that it matters less what we use for money, and matters only under the principles under which that money functions(honesty -vs fraud) (wealth money -vs- debt money).

Interest is the cost of doing business.  As long as people refuse to address the interest cost of doing business we will continue to have price inflation because as the debt grows so does the interest load (generally, though they could lower the interest down to zero for everyone which would lower the cost of doing business).  Currenly there is no interest free money in our system.  Every penny and every dollar came into exsistance as an interest bearing loan.  There is NO money until somebody borrows it.

I'm absolutely in favor of getting rid of interest all together, and it must be done, or the money powers will always use it to their advantage.  History has proven time and time again, any country that has allowed it's money to be debauched(switched from an evidence of wealth to an evidence of debtiness) has been completely destroyed in time, and few countries, if any, have ever returned to their former glory.

I would avoid corruption by the money controllers by revoking their ability to create money as loans, and outlawing the practice of interest all together.  Return honesty to our monetary system by returning our money to the principles of gold and silver(came into exsistance through the peoples production, as a wealth, not as a debt, there just isn't enough gold or silver in the world to have it work as a general meduim of exchange because if there would have ever been enough the goldsmith would have never got started lending out receipts at interest to increase the money supply).  Obviously the amount of gold didn't increase but the amount of paper interest bearing debt receipts did.  What the people didn't realize is that not only did the quantity of money change, but so did the quality(the money went from a representation of wealth to a representation of debt).  Again, honesty -vs- fraud.

Until one really studies the sinister nature of interest and the power of compounding interest they will never know or understand anything about money.

In short, if all money in exsistance was NOT owed to anyone and was just out there being traded around, if you were able to capture just 10% of the money supply and lend it out at 10% interest it would only take you 25 years to own all the money in the world, along with having all the power that would come with being the only source of money after that.

One final two part video, which I'm sure I've showed you before, and I appoligize if I haven't showed you this before.

Part 1

Part 2

What more could you want?  Lower taxes, a stabilized economy, increased wages(or at least steady ones) and a lower cost of doing business(lower cost of living).  I just don't understand what more people could want?

DJETH's picture
DJETH
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Re: Informal Poll: I'm curious, what number would you ...

Davos,

Plase post your findings so we can get an idea of the average, 

I believe in the we will progress in the near future into a 3A with the exception of the quick recovery. We will eventuall slip into a 1A.  Here are my thoughts:

A = Inflation:  To me inflation is How far my dollar goes to keep my lifestyle not how much money is in the system.  I work for a company that like most companies has a certain amount of overhead.  We must bring in a certain amount of gross profit to pay this overhead.  Due to the lack of work coming in, we have to cut our overhead and/or raise our prices.  From july of 2007 to July of 2008($147.00 barrel oil) our material cost went up over 90%.  Post July 2008 our material cost went down less than 20% however because of the lack of work coming in we have not lowered our prices.  If you go to a restraunt and look their prices are going up.  Granted there are some savings at the grocery stores like milk and eggs but the research I have done is the dairy farmers are getting below bottom dollar for their milk and the milk distributors are only passing on part of this savings to the grocery stores.  Everyone raised thier prices because of the cost of oil but few have lowered thier prices.  one other example:  ship a package with Fedex or UPS, they still have their fuel surcharge and the base price has not lowered to pre high oil.  I believe the government is covering the true inflation numbers just look around and you decide.

3= Depression, Devalued Dollar, Quick Recovery, Limited Martial Law, Democracy/Republic Continues:  I believe everything but the quick recovery.  The USA will be behind India and China on the recovery and because of this peak oil will be back in play.  If you devalue the dollar our imported goods cost goes up.  If India and China are using More oil that will cause a further increase in oil prices.  I will have to use more of my limited resources to cover the increase in prices from the rise in the cost of oil not to mention my increased tax burden.  My employer will not give me a cost of living raise just like they did not as prices increased in July 2008.  Because people have rarely done without this will cause rioting and Martial law.  The problem with martial law is once it is established it is hard to get rid of.  Take a look at how hard it is to pull out of the wars/Police Actions we have been in (Vietnam, Korea, Iraq, Afaganistan, Ect...).  Once a presence is established what event would cause a pull back?  You are pushing the middle class into the lower class and the greater the distance between upper and lower class and the greater the number of people in the lower class the more likely you are to push us into the #1 catagory.  Just think of your reaction to troops going down the streets in your neighborhood.  You do the math.

 

 

yoshhash's picture
yoshhash
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Re: Informal Poll: I'm curious, what number would you ...

2a

Ready's picture
Ready
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Re: Informal Poll: I'm curious, what number would you ...

I tend to agree with Mainecooncat, that energy will likely be the pivitol point in history.

Assuming demand stays low and the price of oil products stays low too (more on speculation below) we at least have a working infastructure to feed and house people. This, above all else, will have a predicitive power over where we are headed and how fast. If gas goes to $5 - $10 / gallon, we are in for a wild ride that will likely include far more anarchy than if we stay at a modest $2.50.

It would seem that those who blamed the speculators for the $147 oil last year will be vindicated very soon with an offical report. That said, what concerns me is that we don't even need a peak oil event to create an oil shock, this can be manipulated into being by those who desire to do so. Unsettling for sure.

If, by demand growth, production drops, or manipulation, oil goes to $150 - $200 range and stays there (or gets worse) we are looking at a lower number in Davos' poll. Without that, we have some time and the number increases.

Based on everything I know right now, I would predict 2.5 B and then A.

Best,

Rog

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TD
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Re: Informal Poll: I'm curious, what number would you ...

B-5 then A-2

But it's really tough to say, there are just so many variables, so much is controlled by men behind closed doors, and so much is out of control.

I think we are looking at B-5 for the next year to three years. We will continue down this path of deflation, of recession, of rising unemployment, of ever increasing deficits, of ever rising defaults, and printing presses creating dollars at an ever increasing rate. As gloomy as all this is, this period will be looked upon in future years as "the good old days"... when there were no shortages, and little inflation... just a depressing recession.

And then A-2 will arrive. Inflation like the US has never seen before... relentless, mindboggling inflation, that will last for years. The US will declare bankruptcy on all of it's debt. There will be a new currency created, a New Dollar with 100:1 ratio to the old one, and that one will fail within a year, replaced by the Gold-backed dollar with 100:1 ratio to the New Dollar.

It won't be pretty. Likely there will be a war or two pop up. China will invade Taiwan. Korea will do something stupid. Obesity here in the US will end, many will starve to death in Africa. But we will rebound to a brave New World... some semblence of normal life will return, with more government control and intrusion, and with much less consumerism.

TD

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JAG
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Re: Informal Poll: I'm curious, what number would you ...

Ready,

Thanks for the link about oil speculation in 08. I don't know how many times I heard Jim Puplava preach that $147/barrel oil was simply due to supply and demand and no speculation was involved. Peak Oil may be a reality, but you can't let your belief in it blind you to events in the markets. 

Nichoman's picture
Nichoman
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Re: Informal Poll: I'm curious, what number would you ...

This is dependent on 2 factors: 1.) Human Nature; 2.) Leadership

At this stage...take 7 and A (starting within 6-12 months).

  • Don't see any leadership, just entrenched dogma's...so eventually could be 1,2 or 3.
  • If we apply morals and sound principles in these challenging times...coupled with real leadership and shed our old science ideologies...could be 4.  

 

Nichoman

 

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joemanc
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Re: Informal Poll: I'm curious, what number would you ...

7: Other - Slow Collapse, No Recovery. Federal Government becomes irrelevant as some states begin to secede from the union and/or form their own regions of the country. Standard of living reduced.

Deflation, followed by inflation, followed by a return to living within our means.

bluebird's picture
bluebird
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Re: Informal Poll: I'm curious, what number would you ...

1 and B

We are beginning deflation now. At some point there will be some kind of an event that will signal to everyone that it is indeed deflation as they will not have much money nor use of credit. Things have started to collapse and will continue to collapse as deflation and depression drag on for many years. There will be no 'recovery' to what we have previously been accustomed to. We will learn to live and survive in a manner different than what we are living now. But life may not be all bad, just very different, for those who survive. There will probably be some kind of revolution because the people will realize they have been lied to by their government and politicians. Eventually, people will be more at peace and live in a small community with family and neighbors. All of this will take longer than my lifetime, maybe 30-40 years. Who knows what the future ultimately brings.

Edit: People need jobs for there to be a recovery and we continue to lose more jobs than are being created every month. Besides, most of the major factory jobs have been sent offshore. These jobs cannot be brought back because it takes energy to run the factories, and cheap energy will be in very short supply in the future. 

 

 

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Cloudfire
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Re: Informal Poll: I'm curious, what number would you ...

 

Hi, Davos;

I'd have to say "1", though none of the choices perfectly fits my view of the future.  Democracy is dead in the US, and we are already in the midst of a deepening depression, so half of those watermarks are met.  Whether there will be a total collapse and martial law will depend on how easily we roll over and hand over our remaining wealth and freedoms.

The inflation/deflation question is beyond my ability to judge with certainty, but, if pressed, I'd say deflation in the short term, inflation in the long term.  In the end, it may not matter, as it may come to pass that repaying the debt will be moot, as national governments and currencies will be replaced by global governance and currencies.

 

cannotaffordit's picture
cannotaffordit
Status: Gold Member (Offline)
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Posts: 273
Re: Informal Poll: I'm curious, what number would you ...

 Hi Davos,

TWO THINGS:   I wish folks would stick to the thread, or create their own, and stop hijacking other people's sincere attempt to gather information.  I like the writings of both the hijackers on this thread, and always enjoy what they have to say, but I just wish it would occur somewhere besides here.  (Maybe I'm just not smart enough to seriously consider two major topics at once.) 

SECONDLY:   I tend to agree with Coon and with some others.  I personally think we're gonna continue with the craziness for another 4 or 5 years, followed by an enormous collapse, continuing slowly at first then picking up speed like a runaway locomotive, of our currency and the entire economy.  I look for more of the militancy (martial law) than what we now have, and I think it will require 10 to 20 years for a new economy to evolve. When it does, I hope we (or the next generation) will have learned the fallacies of out-of-control capitalism, out-of-control personal spending and out-of-control government spending, as well as what Eisenhower "originally" called the military/industrial/congressional complex.  (Yep, his granddaughter says she has seen the original papers, and he was forced to take the "congressional" part out)  If these lessons are not learned, and corrected, me thinks the good ole U.S. of A. is doomed to the bottom of the heap of so-called "advanced" nations.

If it is convenient, please give us a summary of what everybody said.  Thanks.

Davos, thanks for giving an opportunity to say where we think it is all headed.  All I know for sure, at this point, is that my wife and I are out of the Wall Street Casinos for the rest of our lives.  Why should we put our money into a system that we know is controlled by greedy, unethical manipulators? 

propamanda's picture
propamanda
Status: Bronze Member (Offline)
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Re: Informal Poll: I'm curious, what number would you ...

Hi Davos.

Just a guess:

I think #3, followed a short period of false stability where everyone becomes more accustomed to lower living standards, followed shortly thereafter by #1.  And A for inflation.

 

Thanks.

Dogs_In_A_Pile's picture
Dogs_In_A_Pile
Status: Martenson Brigade Member (Online)
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Posts: 2606
Re: Informal Poll: I'm curious, what number would you ...

2.5 B, A

We are not going to "recover" back to where we were.  We are going to 'recover' to some new sustainable state like joemanc alluded to.

And Americans are too damn proud and stubborn to let the republic fail.  We might let the idiot professional politicians run Her into the ground and soil her colors, but at some point we will say enough is enough and take back the governance of our country.  I only hope to be witness to what follows this Fourth Turning.

RNcarl's picture
RNcarl
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Posts: 382
Re: Informal Poll: I'm curious, what number would you ...

Well,

My gut feel, it will be a stair stepping, as Chris says, by sharp shocks, some recovery then shock and recovery that takes longer and longer. so it looks like this:

 

3 - B with recovery that causes A -> then a 2 B ->then A  -> which may either cause a 1 or something else. (20 years out)

The biggest issue I see is that the shear size of the U.S. may make it a long, slow, painful "recovery". This in turn will cause Chris' time-line to be pushed out farther. Americans do buckle down when things get rough. Wild card here is the "welfare" state that was created by pols buying votes with entitlements.

Other wild cards are China and India. Thank god China is as paranoid as they are. If they ever get their act together.... it will be a #1 and A or B won't matter.

OR Chris is dead wrong, we have a 5 ending in a 4 that revives the engine of our economy and happy days are here again for another generation! The cycle is to repeat itself for "corrections" from time to time but all is well for many, many years.

 

Jefferson was right.

 

 

 

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