inflation VS deflation analysis

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hanlin's picture
hanlin
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SagerXX's picture
SagerXX
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Re: inflation VS deflation analysis

With all due respect to the inflation vs. deflation arguments (and I mean that sincerely), finer minds than mine have been gnawing on this bone of contention for half a year now and nobody's produced a smoking gun or knockout punch, IMO.  At this point I've thrown up my hands and am in the stance of "It's gonna be bad one way or t'other, and my physical preps (i.e., non-financial) are the same either way."  As for financial prep, I'm short the DOW, invested in PMs, and a reasonable stash of cash is outside the banking system.  Considering our fairly limited financial resources, and barring a sudden unexpected infusion of money, we're as prepped as we'll ever be for de-or-in-flation.  

FWIW, I guess I'm in the camp of "we kind of have both deflation and inflation going on right now, depending on where you look."

Viva -- Sager

hanlin's picture
hanlin
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Re: inflation VS deflation analysis

You are correct that both force exist at different front, inflation was happening on commodity, and deflation is on consumer goods. When liquidation sale somes with bankruptcy, everything goes down together. This is all analyzed in the 4 posts.

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hucklejohn
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Re: inflation VS deflation analysis

I say we can set aside the inflation & deflation arguments.  I think the major threat is a failure of the U. S. dollar as fewer countries are receptive to taking dollars in exchange for goods and services.  Also, as Chris has  pointed out, among other things, there is a risk at some point that a Treasury auction may fail because no one is interested.  It is likely to be fairly sudden in my opinion but the timing is very uncertain.       

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Farmer Brown
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Re: inflation VS deflation analysis
hucklejohn wrote:

 I think the major threat is a failure of the U. S. dollar as fewer countries are receptive to taking dollars in exchange for goods and services. 

Hucklejohn,

Do you have any evidence of any country not accepting dollars?

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JAG
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Re: inflation VS deflation analysis

daveweng,

Welcome to the community and thanks for the post. There is an ongoing discussion of this subject matter in the The Definitive Inflation vs Deflation Debate and What to do About It Thread. (The dreaded deflationists in this community tend to gather here, where they are ignored by the majority) Sealed

Jeff

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wcvarones
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Re: inflation VS deflation analysis

How exactly can a Treasury auction "fail" when the Fed is there to buy up as much as Treasury needs to issue?

And don't believe that $300bn and done BS.  They'll have the primary dealers buy the Treasuries as fronts, and the Fed will arrange to purchase/repo/swap them later or otherwise guarantee them against losses.  Zero Hedge already caught them pulling a stunt like this a couple months ago.

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