The Independent Reports Arab States Planning to Move Away from the Dollar

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Lemonyellowschwin's picture
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The Independent Reports Arab States Planning to Move Away from the Dollar

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/the-demise-of-the-dollar-1798175.html

Credible?  I don't know.

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Re: The Independent Reports Arab States Planning to Move ...

I just read this also.

This is big news, is it not?

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Re: The Independent Reports Arab States Planning to Move ...

Saw it on zerohedge right now. The USD is holding up for the most part. Interesting development. If true, here are the implications based on the present fundamentals:

world oil demand: 80 million barrels a day. US demand: 19 million.

80-19= 61 million barrels a day

61 X 365 = 22.2 BILLION barrels a year

22.2 billion barrels X $70 a barrel = $1.540 trillion

So currently, $1.54 trillion are used to purchase oil worldwide. Were oil to be bought with a basket of currencies, assuming the US$ makes up at least 50% of the basket, only $775 billion in US$ will be neccessary. These dollars will go on the open market.

 

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Re: The Independent Reports Arab States Planning to Move ...

It's not exactly the same but the Arab states have been talking about a gold dinar, to be used in place of the dollar, for years.

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Re: The Independent Reports Arab States Planning to Move ...

Thanks for the tip on The Independent article, LYS!  I am very curious about what's going on with potential replacements for the dollar as the reserve currency.  It will be interesting to see what else we can find out about this!

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Re: The Independent Reports Arab States Planning to Move ...

Lemonyellowschwin - great dig, thanks. 

If this is true, we are heading into a new world very quickly.  I haven't had a chance to verify it, when I saw your post, I dashed off to call some family.

Look forward to the contributions of others to this thread.

Thanks again!

Larry

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Re: The Independent Reports Arab States Planning to Move ...

I know he's probably working hard on the latest report...but we need a Chris fix!

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Ridiculous Hype Over Secret Oil Meetings

 

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2009/10/ridiculous-hype-over-secret-oil.html

 

Ridiculous Hype Over Secret Oil Meetings

Once again everyone is hyperventilating over "secret" moves to trade oil in currencies other than the US dollar. Please consider The demise of the dollar by Robert Fisk.

 

 

In the most profound financial change in recent Middle East history, Gulf Arabs are planning – along with China, Russia, Japan and France – to end dollar dealings for oil, moving instead to a basket of currencies including the Japanese yen and Chinese yuan, the euro, gold and a new, unified currency planned for nations in the Gulf Co-operation Council, including Saudi Arabia, Abu Dhabi, Kuwait and Qatar.

Secret meetings have already been held by finance ministers and central bank governors in Russia, China, Japan and Brazil to work on the scheme, which will mean that oil will no longer be priced in dollars.

The Americans, who are aware the meetings have taken place – although they have not discovered the details – are sure to fight this international cabal which will include hitherto loyal allies Japan and the Gulf Arabs. Against the background to these currency meetings, Sun Bigan, China's former special envoy to the Middle East, has warned there is a risk of deepening divisions between China and the US over influence and oil in the Middle East. "Bilateral quarrels and clashes are unavoidable," he told the Asia and Africa Review. "We cannot lower vigilance against hostility in the Middle East over energy interests and security."

 

 

 

Supposedly Robert Fisk knows the plans but "Americans have not discovered the details".

Such "secret" talks surface about once a year and nothing ever happens. Yet, even if these talks led to actual actions, they are irrelevant for the simple reason it does not matter one iota what oil is priced in.

I discussed this concept in Oil Pricing Unit Red Herring on November 18, 2007. At the time everyone was going gaga because Venezuela and Iran would supposedly not take dollars for oil.

Ten Simple Facts

1) Oil is priced in dollars.
2) Oil trades in Dollars and Euros right now in spite of the pricing unit being dollars. OPEC has recently admitted this fact.
3) Clearly oil does not have to be priced in Euros to trade in Euros, or for that matter priced in Yen to trade in Yen. The same applies to any major currency.
4) Neither Venezuela or Iran hold any dollar reserves. To the extent that either is taking trades in dollars, there is clearly nothing forcing them to hold dollars. By extension there is nothing forcing any OPEC country to hold dollars if it doesn't want to.
5) It takes less than a second for Forex trades to take place. 24 hours a day, 7 days a week, one can sell any currency they want and buy any other currency.
6) The above logic applies to any currency and any commodity.
7) Nothing is stopping anyone at any time anywhere from selling dollars for whatever currency they want to hold. Nor is anything stopping anyone anywhere at any time from selling any major currency for U.S. Dollars.
8) Because currency conversion is instantaneous no one has to hold U.S. dollars to buy oil, copper, gold, iron, lead, wheat, soybeans, or anything else.
9) Dollars are held (or not held) for reasons totally unrelated to pricing unit. Some of those reasons are political, some are based on sentiment, some on trade patterns and trade relationships, and some to suppress the value of local currencies to improve exports.
10) Currencies float and so do the price of oil and commodities. Pricing oil (or any other commodity) in Euros will not cause a price change in dollars. Look at gold which is simultaneously priced in everything as proof.

War Over Pricing Unit?

Fisk concludes with "Iran announced late last month that its foreign currency reserves would henceforth be held in euros rather than dollars. Bankers remember, of course, what happened to the last Middle East oil producer to sell its oil in euros rather than dollars. A few months after Saddam Hussein trumpeted his decision, the Americans and British invaded Iraq."

Iran has virtually no trade with the US, nor is there US foreign direct investment in Iran. Pray tell what does Iran need to hold dollar reserves for? Iran's statements amount to political hot air and nothing more. It announced something the world already knew, they already held no dollar reserves. Who should care?

Note that it takes less than a second for Forex trades to take place, and 24 hours a day, 7 days a week, one can sell any currency they want and buy any other currency. Logically, it makes no difference if US dollars are converted into Euros one second before a purchase or one second after the a purchase.

Given that it is irrelevant what oil is priced in outside of something illiquid like Yap Island stones, the logical conclusion is the US did not go to war over oil being priced in Euros.

Currencies Are Fungible

Let's put the horse in front of the cart where it belongs.

You can get a price of oil in any major currency you want today because all major currencies are fungible. However, pricing oil in a basket of currencies would do nothing but cause confusion. The idea is ridiculous.

Saudi Arabia, China, Japan, and any other country can hold whatever reserves they want in whatever currencies they want regardless of the pricing unit of oil. Reserves are based on trade relationships not pricing units!

Pricing oil in Euros (or even sillier - a basket of currencies) will not cause anything to happen. If pricing unit changes do happen, they will be a result of sentiment changes in regards to existing dollar hegemony and not the other way around.

Dollar Armageddon is not coming over a pricing unit, nor did the US invade Iraq for that reason. The story is nothing meaningless hype.

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Re: The Independent Reports Arab States Planning to Move ...

Thanks FB, the cyclical nature of hype on this site is tiresome at times.

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Re: The Independent Reports Arab States Planning to Move ...

JAG,

This "shocking" news "whipped" the dollar down a whopping 30 cents overnight, which is not an unusual move for the $ in overnight trading, so the effect so far is pretty much nil.  That just further solidifies my opinion that the dollar has completely bottomed.  I mean, if news like this can't pull more than 30 cents out from under Uncle Buck, there aint much fluff left under it.  As always, I accept I could be wrong, but that's my take on this so far.

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Crescendo

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Re: The Independent Reports Arab States Planning to Move ...

Farmer Brown,

I'm glad Mish is not managing my portfolio.  If the story is accurate, he has has totally missed the geopolitical ramifications of such an event.  The impact on our economy could be huge...while I agree that we should not over-react to the story as it has been denied by many in the supposed "secret" group, Mish is dead wrong if he thinks this doesn't matter.

Coincidence that gold has set a new record at $1040 today, up over $20?

Larry

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Re: The Independent Reports Arab States Planning to Move ...

Larry,

I can't speak for Mish.  I agree this would have a huge effect on the dollar - if it actually happened, but even the "secret sources" don't plan to implement this for nine years.  I remember for how long the Euro was only "5 years away"  and it took forever (and that wasn't a "secret ploy" - it was wide out in the open).

I have no doubt the dollar is doomed long term, but I think the Schiff camp is way ahead of the curve.  He'd been predicting the bubble collapse since the early 2000's.  How many years ahead of the mark is he and that line of reasoning premature on the dollar?  Of course, no one knows. 

I just tend to discount everything that's heralded as "huge news", especially when this new currency talk has been going on for years, and especially when the dollar is already close to its all-time lows.

 

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Re: The Independent Reports Arab States Planning to Move ...

Likewise, I think this article falls into the rumor camp for now, but it has apparently been able to move the markets quite strongly when coupled with yet another UN statement that the dollar must be replaced as reserve currency. If the markets do indeed discount the future, it will not matter if such a gold-oil scheme is implemented in 5 or 10 years. If the market perceives that it is coming, prices will change to reflect that in the present and it is quite possible that today's surge is an emotional reaction in that vein.

There are many reasons to believe the dollar is bottoming, and indeed it might be getting close. But if the markets perceive today's news as having teeth, I would venture to guess that PM and perhaps oil prices will hold up better than equities in a dollar-strengthening wave.

It can sometimes be difficult to discern what causes the markets to move, but I've heard a lot of pro-gold rumors in the past  year and I can't recall any specific rumor that moved the markets as decisively as gold moved today. The broader term technical and funadamental pictures for gold seems to be very positive to me, contrary to the situation in the stock or bond markets right now. When rumors confirm the charts which confirm the fundamentals, it seems worth taking note.

Although this story might fall into the rumor bucket for now it is absolutely worth following. If there were more indications given that it could be a reality (even if it was years away) I believe that we would be seeing some massive changes in our financial and commodities markets and then our standard of living.

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Re: The Independent Reports Arab States Planning to Move ...

This even hit the big MSM

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/8292736.stm

I like how they said the article "later denied"... WTF?

Seriously why the hell wouldn't they? Overnight, I don't think so but definitely long term.

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Re: The Independent Reports Arab States Planning to Move ...
DrKrbyLuv wrote:

Farmer Brown,

I'm glad Mish is not managing my portfolio.  If the story is accurate, he has has totally missed the geopolitical ramifications of such an event.  The impact on our economy could be huge...while I agree that we should not over-react to the story as it has been denied by many in the supposed "secret" group, Mish is dead wrong if he thinks this doesn't matter.

Coincidence that gold has set a new record at $1040 today, up over $20?

Larry

Mish is managing (a financial advisor to) my portfolio and its up quite nicely today despite being prudently hedged for what awaits us down the road, thank you. I prefer Mish over the National Enquirer for my portfolio management, but thats just me.

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Re: The Independent Reports Arab States Planning to Move ...

Relax everybody.....Bloomberg just had Roger Altman (who ever he is) and he says "no changes any time soon".

I guess his spliff orwhat ever he was smoking was left just off cameraWink

Britinbe

P.S. Does the average guy in the street have a clue as to what the dollar's current reserve status really means??

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Re: The Independent Reports Arab States Planning to Move ...

Relax everybody.....Bloomberg just had Roger Altman (who ever he is) and he says "no changes any time soon".

I guess his spliff orwhat ever he was smoking was left just off cameraWink

Britinbe

P.S. Does the average guy in the street have a clue as to what the dollar's current reserve status really means??

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Re: The Independent Reports Arab States Planning to Move ...

Relax everybody.....Bloomberg just had Roger Altman (who ever he is) and he says "no changes any time soon".

I guess his spliff orwhat ever he was smoking was left just off cameraWink

I should add that not 10 seconds before, they interviewed someone who said the stock market rise and the gold increase was bcause of the US monetising debt.......and they expect no one to connect the dots

Britinbe

 

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Re: The Independent Reports Arab States Planning to Move ...

I guess my question in this is a bit broader. If we assume that this absolutely won't happen, then I would ask a hypothetical: What do the other countries (China, Russia, Arab Gulf) countries want to happen?

When I look at it that way, it does seem somewhat of a weak argument to say: it's too difficult to change, this is the way it's always been, or we don't absolutely need to change now...Just looking down the road a few years (5-10) why wouldn't China want to have a greater influence in reserve currency status, why wouldn't the Arab states desire payment in gold, why wouldn't Russia desire to consolidate its power as (now) the world's greatest oil producer? Every bit as much as this is about money and finance, this is about global power.

I don't think this rumor is something that should guide investments, but it's the sort of thing that certainly could influence trades. And I think the fact that this sort of thing has been the chatter for years now combined with the UN's recent statements in addition to the other big players, I think it's the sort of thing that we should pay attention to. If it doesn't signal an end to the petrodollar standard, then we need to ask ourselves: why not? If there are weak reasons supporting the 'why not,' then perhaps we should be nimble as Chris suggests. I agree with Chris's recent sentiments that systems can sometimes "step down" in defined moves, oftentimes unexpectedly. Preparing in advance is the only way to ensure survival. Likewise, I think there is a reasonable possibility that the petrodollar standard will be replaced somewhat abruptly.

As far as I can tell, the majority of the economic power in the world desires a reserve standard that is less dollar dependent. And why shouldn't it? Eventually, the dollar will lose its status as sole reserve currency. When and how is anyone's guess, but any talk to that end is another nail in the coffin of public support for the present system.

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Re: The Independent Reports Arab States Planning to Move ...

If this were to happen the US would have no other choice than to do what it should have done from the beginning, slap a huge tariff on oil imports. US revenues would skyrocket while energy gluttonous US consumers went through their withdrawal pangs. World energy consumption would plummet, driving the income of oil producing nations to the basement.

We need to set a tarriff benchmark to reach a goal of enegy independence for national security reasons. We are obviously vulnerable so a tariff is perfectly justified. Establish a benchmark of no more than 10% imported oil and maintain it. Domestically  prices would rise, as would profits spurring domestic production, but so too would goverment revenues. Conservation would increase and the revenues would stay in the country strengthening the dollar. Earmark the tariff money entirely for alternative energy production. Each tariff dollar contributes to renewable energy supplies driving oil prices down further. Eventually, the oil, tariff, dollar values come back into balance but it gets us in the direction of energy independence at foreigner's and gluttonous user's  expense, not the taxpayers.

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Re: The Independent Reports Arab States Planning to Move ...

Here's the thing, ya'll:

The article might be credible, and it might not.  What is clear, though, is that people around the world are growing increasingly nervous and wary of the long term value of the dollar.  Add to that the fact that there is a ton of chatter out there about moving away from the dollar.  That kind of chatter simply did not exist two years ago and would have been laughable as late as mid-2008. 

At some point, there is a risk that something, whatever it is, whether substantiated or purely rumor, sets off a run on the dollar.  Once that run gets set off, it might be very difficult to control.  As Chris and others have said before, the value of the dollar is based on nothing but faith.  It is a trademark.  What happens when the trademark is diluted in the mind of the world?  What happens when faith is lost?  What happens when someone whips out a 100 dollar bill and it does not provoke the same kind of awe and respect that it used to command?  Who wants to be the last one holding dollars?  It's like fashion.  No one wants to be the last one wearing Crocs.

If people lose their respect for the dollar, it has the potential to set off a run.  In that sense, it's no different than a bank run . . . it would be something fueled by a lack of confidence, a dimunition in respect, and a mass panic.  If and when the dollar crashes in a big way, it will probably be a psychological event as much as anything.

 

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Re: The Independent Reports Arab States Planning to Move ...

Lemonyellowschwin +1

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Re: The Independent Reports Arab States Planning to Move ...

Just curious about the possible ramifications. What if the dollar was pegged to oil the way the dollar used to be pegged to gold? What would that scenario look like for our economy?

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Re: The Independent Reports Arab States Planning to Move ...

JAG wrote:

Mish is managing (a financial advisor to) my portfolio and its up quite nicely today despite being prudently hedged for what awaits us down the road, thank you.

Sorry Jeff, if I said (and I implied it) that Mish wasn't great on investments.  Mish took on Peter Schiff on the inflation / deflation issue some months back, everyone sided with Schiff but Mish was right on the money as we now know.  It was like David against Goliath. 

Then more recently, Mish got into a similar thing with Karl Denninger about fractional reserve lending.  In this case too, Mish is right, IMHO.  

I really like Mish, sorry if I sold him short.

Larry

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Re: The Independent Reports Arab States Planning to Move ...
Lemonyellowschwin wrote:

At some point, there is a risk that something, whatever it is, whether substantiated or purely rumor, sets off a run on the dollar.  Once that run gets set off, it might be very difficult to control.

 

This is just a guess of what the "run" would look like. Unlike the old fashioned bank run where people line up to get their money, this one people line line up to get out of their money (the FRN). As more and more nations, corporations and individuals traded their FRNs for any tangible asset they could find those FRNs would all end up one place, here in the US (their point of origin). They're like a bunch of homing pidgeons that are now in cages in distant locations. As they are let loose they all come back. How deep would we be in FRNs if they all came back?

And since no one wanted any more of them (since they  already have a hard enough time with the ones they have) then importing anything into this country without payment in some other manner would be near impossible. While in an old fashioned bank run the bank would run out of cash in this situation we would become neck deep in it.

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Is "End the Fed" Possible?

Larry,

This is slightly off topic, but do you think we have a chance at removing the Fed? I just finished Ron Paul's "End the Fed" book and I would love to believe that we as a nation could put an end to this dollar drama and the many, many negative ramifications inherit to the Fed's manipulation of the money supply. 

Is there a chance that this could happen or am I just dreaming?

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Re: The Independent Reports Arab States Planning to Move ...

Jeff:

The answer lies (partly) within you. Go to the the nationwide End The Fed Rally on November 22, 2009. More details will come out shortly, I am sure. The movement is gaining momentum with now 300 supporters of Ron Paul's bill (HR 1207) in the House.

Talk to friends and neighbors about the FED and the dollar. Plant seeds. If they don't listen to you now, it is very likely they will come back to you in the near future once reality confirms your understanding. This movement can and will only succeed at the grassroots level.

Lastly, you can call Congress: 202-224-3121. Just say the name of the Rep in the house or senate that you wish to speak to and leave a message. It really only takes 2 minutes. No hold time. If you don't have an impact on the politician, you very well could have an impact on the intern that answers.

The FED will fail, either in an orderly manner as a result of awareness resulting in policy changes (abolishing it) or as a result of a complete currency collapse where the market itself, in effect, ends the central bank.

Thanks for your interest in this most important issue.

Cheers,

Mike

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Re: The Independent Reports Arab States Planning to Move ...

Perhaps a bit off topic, but surely the only result for all holders of USD would be to loose?   Would we be looking at a chase of no winners, just those that loose less badly than the others?

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Re: The Independent Reports Arab States Planning to Move ...

I recently read on Jim Sinclair's site that the official denials of the "secret" meeting preceeded yesterday's gold price spike by many hours. Sinclair is indicating that this is even more ominous because it shows that either the gold markets completely disregard the official denials and believe the secret meeting is, in fact, reality or there are other reasons for gold's price rise. In his view, either one of these factors is not so good for the situation in America at all. Although he is admittedly an overly exuberant gold bug, he seems to say that the threat of hyperinflation is fast approaching and that when we see events like yesterday, we should view it in that context. Marc Faber and Jim Rogers also echo his belief that hyperinflation in America is inevitable, at least eventually.

Any thoughts or comments on this take? Anyone think that the denials of the secret meeting are disbelieved or were there other discernible reasons for the price action yesterday?

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When Reality Meets Fiction

When Reality Meets Fiction

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/must-read-when-reality-meets-fiction

excerpt:

Everyone who grew up watching James Bond must have had a kick reading the news last night or this morning, and finding out about secret meetings between China, Russia, Gulf countries, France, and Brazil, plotting to organize the demise of the US dollar. Unlike in Goldfinger, the villains this time weren't planning to plant a bomb in Fort Knox, but rather stop using the greenback, and instead price currencies against a basket of currencies composed of (drums please): the yuan, the ruble, a newly created Arab currency, the euro, the yen, and gold. I don't remember reading the Brazilian real but we could throw it in there so we don't hurt anybody's feelings.

Let's be serious. Russia was inches from begging the IMF for money last fall. The Yuan is not freely tradable and money supply in China is growing at twice the pace at which it is growing in the US, the UK, or Europe. The Chinese government actually believes the acronym GDP stands for printing money to buy commodities. The Euro has shown how using a single currency for a set of different economies is extremely difficult to manage. Spain and Ireland used the euro to fuel (or extend) bubbles before completely collapsing in near-depression. Setting appropriate rates is very difficult and there is little doubt that if more Eastern European countries get integrated the problem will be magnified, as these countries will jump on the opportunity to become centers of production, and this time they will be protected under the same exchange rate regime as the rest of the EU, unlike last fall where many of them almost went bankrupt. Then comes the Yen, it has been used as part of jokes involving gazillions in several Hollywood comedies over the past 20 years but other than that it has mainly fueled every carry trade before the USD joined it.

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