As if Things Weren't Bad Enough, Russian Professor Predicts End of U.S.

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As if Things Weren't Bad Enough, Russian Professor Predicts End of U.S.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123051100709638419.html

DECEMBER 29, 2008

As if Things Weren't Bad Enough, Russian Professor Predicts End of U.S.

In Moscow, Igor Panarin's Forecasts Are All the Rage; America 'Disintegrates' in 2010

 By ANDREW OSBORN

MOSCOW -- For a decade, Russian academic Igor Panarin has been predicting the U.S. will fall apart in 2010. For most of that time, he admits, few took his argument -- that an economic and moral collapse will trigger a civil war and the eventual breakup of the U.S. -- very seriously. Now he's found an eager audience: Russian state media. 

 

 

 

 

 

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Re: As if Things Weren't Bad Enough, Russian Professor ...

It might be noted that during the Cold War, just about every Russian professor predicted the end of the U.S. (and many other nations as well), and Russian state media had no trouble finding them. 

Since that time, the number of professors predicting doom for America has dropped significantly.  Indeed, if now Russian state media is only able to produce one Russian professor who thinks America's end is nigh, their numbers must have dropped quite precipitously indeed!  So, statistically, based on the total number over time of Russian professors who think America is going to fail, I'd say we're doing quite well :-)

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Re: As if Things Weren't Bad Enough, Russian Professor ...

Quite well indeed:

"I’m sure it will be a total state of chaos. I mean we’ve never been here. I think the analogy of the Soviet Unionis probably the closest; we could break up into a series of little fiefdoms." 

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1230447960.php

 

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Re: As if Things Weren't Bad Enough, Russian Professor ...

Somebody else posted a link (sorry forgot where on this site) to an article involving the same professor back in late November

http://en.rian.ru/world/20081124/118512713.html

Interesting to see his predictions about how the US would be divided has changed so much since then.

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Re: As if Things Weren't Bad Enough, Russian Professor ...

I'd be more worried about things 20 years from now if we don't collapse.

The longer you artificially sustain exsistance, the more dilapidated the organism becomes and the lower the quality of the exsistance. We're singing our national swan song. We aught to resign control with some dignity and allow states to take control for themselves.

Makes more sense than heading towards a totalitarian government trying to roll us in with Canada and Mexico.

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Re: As if Things Weren't Bad Enough, Russian Professor ...

Of course there's always the possibility that he'll be correct.  But my sense is that we won't see that level of disintegration in a short period of time.  A strong argument could be made that we'll see it over the long term, though.

I'm more persuaded by John Michael Greer's "long descent" hypothesis, where modern civilization gradually dinsintegrates over a period of 150-300 years in a staircase-like fashion.  This is consistent with the historical fall of every large civilization.

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Re: As if Things Weren't Bad Enough, Russian Professor ...

Yes, I agree with Chris. While I don't completely discount the (relatively slim) possibility of a catostrophic and acute crash, I believe that we will decompose slowly over a period of decades. I would hesitate to predict it would take many Centuries, since our country has only taken a little over two Centuries to get to where it is now.

I would also make the point that many others, and indeed I myself, have failed to recognize the very strong push to maintain the status quo. I am regularly impressed to see how resiliant our system seems to be and how deeply entrenched the status quo is. Perhaps this is just a reflection of the historical evidence that the public tends to favor order over freedom or performance when it comes to finance and government.

I also agree with Aaron in the sense that things are unstable enough right now and if we don't start deflating our entire system, it could balloon more and more in the next few years to the point where a civil unwar or violent revolution becomes nearly inevitable. As obvious as it is to me that the Central Government should re-empower the states, that is the exact opposite of the trend. There is never a true recession in Government - it just seizes the opportunity to get bigger and more powerful, generally at the expense of honest, hardworking people around the nation.

Mike 

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Re: As if Things Weren't Bad Enough, Russian Professor ...
Mike Pilat wrote:

As obvious as it is to me that the Central Government should re-empower the states, that is the exact opposite of the trend.

Hear, hear.

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Re: As if Things Weren't Bad Enough, Russian Professor ...
Mike Pilat wrote:

I also agree with Aaron in the sense that things are unstable enough right now and if we don't start deflating our entire system, it could balloon more and more in the next few years to the point where a civil unwar or violent revolution becomes nearly inevitable. As obvious as it is to me that the Central Government should re-empower the states, that is the exact opposite of the trend. There is never a true recession in Government - it just seizes the opportunity to get bigger and more powerful, generally at the expense of honest, hardworking people around the nation.

 

I agree with much of your last paragraph Mike.

However, while "deflating our entire system" might be in the works, I suspect that the outcome you prescribe ("...civil unwar or violent revolution...") is a scenario which has already comtemplated by government hegemonists.  

Unfortunately, the solutions presented thus far (de facto), i.e., home land security, federal emergency , etc, for a continuation of "orderly" society, have been unconstitutional and likely dangerous to our continued freedoms.

As an alternative, and as, since we still do live as citizens of "these United States", I recommend a review of what Dr. Edwin Vieira, a constitutional lawyer who has successfully won 3 cases before the US Supreme Court, has recently proposed, to allow for the continued prosperity and freedom of our nation, in the event of a future crisis, including an economic collapse.

His solution, points to the deficiency of our local, state and federal government(s), in supporting the 2nd Amendment, with regards to a "well regulated militia".     In particular, he sees as the only constitutional and legal, as well as practical solution to preventing national chaos (in the event of say, an economic collapse...), is the rebirth of the constitutional requirement for "a well regulated militia", of and by the people.

First, because it is composed of citizen/sovereigns.  Second, because it represents the optimum "local" approach to "securing a free state", rather than a distant bureaucracy imposing an ill-fitting iron will on communities.   Third, it removes the possibility of imposition by an omnipotent government for managing crisis within our own country.

I think his points and plan, are a worthwhile read:

 

http://www.newswithviews.com/Vieira/edwin187.htm

 

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Re: As if Things Weren't Bad Enough, Russian Professor ...

I rarely disagree with you Chris, but this time I'm not so sure you are correct....

In the past, when civilisations failed, it was very much at a local scale.  Even the Roman Empire could be classified as localised, the Meditteranean Sea is hardly global.  Plus, today's system is waaaay more complex than at any other time in history, and the more complex a system, the more fragile it is, and more prone to total failure.  I like to use the immobilisation of a car as an example of a complex system:  snip just one wire, the correct wire, and the car becomes a totally useless lump of junk. 

The other big difference is that there are unimaginably more people, and unimaginably more weapons, some being of WMD types.  Also, in the past, most people were skilled at survival, they could build things, grow food, ride horses, manage cows and goats etc.....

It's the gragility of modern civilisation that concerns me most..

Mike 

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Re: As if Things Weren't Bad Enough, Russian Professor ...

I would like believe that the US will not collapse as Russian academic Igor Panarin has proposed.  Another Russian, Dmitry Orlov, has spoken often about the similarities and differences between the Soviet Union and the US.  A short excerpt below.  With the link to the remainer of the indepth article is linked below.

Post-Soviet Lessons for a Post-American Century

By Dmitry Orlov

A
decade and a half ago the world went from bipolar to unipolar, because
one of the poles fell apart: The S.U. is no more. The other pole –
symmetrically named the U.S. – has not fallen apart – yet, but there
are ominous rumblings on the horizon. The collapse of the United States
seems about as unlikely now as the collapse of the Soviet Union seemed
in 1985. The experience of the first collapse may be instructive to
those who wish to survive the second.

Reasonable people would never argue that that the two poles were
exactly symmetrical; along with significant similarities, there were
equally significant differences, both of which are valuable in
predicting how the second half of the clay-footed superpower giant that
once bestrode the planet will fare once it too falls apart.

I have wanted to write this article for almost a decade now. Until
recently, however, few people would have taken it seriously. After all,
who could have doubted that the world economic powerhouse that is the
United States, having recently won the Cold War and the Gulf War, would
continue, triumphantly, into the bright future of superhighways,
supersonic jets, and interplanetary colonies?

But more recently the number of doubters has started to climb steadily.
The U.S. is desperately dependent on the availability of cheap,
plentiful oil and natural gas, and addicted to economic growth. Once
oil and gas become expensive (as they already have) and in ever-shorter
supply (a matter of one or two years at most), economic growth will
stop, and the U.S. economy will collapse.

Many may still scoff at this cheerless prognosis, but this article
should find a few readers anyway. In October 2004, when I started
working on it, an Internet search for "peak oil" and "economic
collapse" yielded about 16,300 documents; by April of 2005 that number
climbed to 4,220,000. This is a dramatic change in public opinion only,
because what is known on the subject now is more or less what was known
a decade or so ago, when there was exactly one Web site devoted to the
subject: Jay Hanson's Dieoff.org. This sea change in public opinion is
not restricted to the Internet, but is visible in the mainstream and
the specialist press as well. Thus, the lack of attention paid to the
subject over the decades resulted not from ignorance, but from denial:
although the basic theory that is used to model and predict resource
depletion has been well understood since the 1960s, most people prefer
to remain in denial.

http://docs.google.com/View?docid=dtxqwqr_20dc52sm

 

 

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Re: As if Things Weren't Bad Enough, Russian Professor ...
Damnthematrix wrote:

I rarely disagree with you Chris, but this time I'm not so sure you are correct....

I'm not sure I'm correct either!  It's just an opinion/prediction, and I'll be the first to admit I could be wrong.

Quote:

In the past, when civilisations failed, it was very much at a local scale.  Even the Roman Empire could be classified as localised, the Meditteranean Sea is hardly global.  Plus, today's system is waaaay more complex than at any other time in history, and the more complex a system, the more fragile it is, and more prone to total failure.  I like to use the immobilisation of a car as an example of a complex system:  snip just one wire, the correct wire, and the car becomes a totally useless lump of junk.

These are all great points, and I agree that increased complexity and interconnection raises the chance of total systemic failure.  On the other hand, I have been repeatedly surprised over the years by the resiliency of modern civilization and it's valiant (if misguided) efforts to persist in the face of seemingly insurmountable challenges.  I know Chris M. and others have also been surprised by this.

Quote:

The other big difference is that there are unimaginably more people, and unimaginably more weapons, some being of WMD types.

These are all what I would call "wildcards".  Impossible to predict and difficult to factor into any equation of what the future may hold.  If some lunatic government or terrorist group pulls that card, I agree that all bets are off.  

Quote:

Also, in the past, most people were skilled at survival, they could build things, grow food, ride horses, manage cows and goats etc.....

It's the gragility of modern civilisation that concerns me most..

Another great point.  We're woefully unprepared in so many ways.

Nevertheless, in spite of all these potentially catastrophic variables I have the feeling that it will be a more protracted collapse than a sudden one.  That doesn't mean we won't have sudden downturns and crises like what we've already had this year, and worse, but that they won't bring civilization to its knees in one fell swoop.

Just my 2 cents, for whatever they're worth (less and less, as time goes on I'd imagine :)!)

Mike 

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Re: As if Things Weren't Bad Enough, Russian Professor ...
Mike Pilat wrote:

 As obvious as it is to me that the Central Government should re-empower the states, that is the exact opposite of the trend. There is never a true recession in Government - it just seizes the opportunity to get bigger and more powerful, generally at the expense of honest, hardworking people around the nation.

Mike 

FBI goes on a hiring binge.  No money?  Don't worry, we can print all we want.

 

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20090105/us_nm/us_usa_fbi

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