I just read - Ultimate Depression Survival Guide by Weiss

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Kman's picture
Kman
Status: Bronze Member (Offline)
Joined: Jan 19 2009
Posts: 72
I just read - Ultimate Depression Survival Guide by Weiss

Hi all,

   I just read Weiss latest book, the Ultimate Deprssion Survival Guide.  It was a quick read and had some valuable insights.  Weiss is clearly anticipating a deflationary depression very similar to the Great Depression.  His views are very colored by the fact that since thats what happend the last time, it will be the same this time.  He had lots of reasons why deflation would be the rule, but few arguments why inflation would not be the rule.  His primary argument seems to be that the Bond Market will dictate to the US Government that fiscal responsibility is a must. 

   A few things he advocates:

  • Get out of the stock market- sell on the rallies
  • Sell Real Estate now
  • Put cash into Short Term Treasuries
  • Dont hold more than 5% of investments in Gold
  • Use inverse ETFs to profit from the market crash

    I agree with the getting out of the market and the selling of real estate.  Not so sure about the minimal Gold holdings.  The Inverse ETF's sound attractive, but I understand that they lock in gains and losses on a daily basis, so if there is a short term rally, could see losses accumulate faster than one would expect.

   One of the main reasons I purchased the book was to see what he recommend about how to handle preserving cash- keeping it safe.  His main advice was to get money out of weak banks as a banking holiday is a high probabilty, as are bank closures.  He published a list of strong and week banks (available via his website after registering).  I checked the list and it looks valuable- however he also recommends using the Street.com to validate banks as well--->  so that puts a bit of a damper on the credibiliy given how the Street.com is so closely tied to Cramer.  Anyone else here on CM have inputs into the validity of Weiss ranking of banks???

   As to the Treasuries- lots of interesting info- especially as to how one can set up a quasi treasury based checking account.  Would really like to get insights into what others here on CM think about the safety of short term treasuries (not bonds) in an inflationary market.

   Overall its worth a read.  Weiss is clearly in the same camp as Prechter.  One caveat is that his book is a huge marketing ploy to lure one into the rest of his services.  Once one registers on the Money and Markets website, you will be hit daily with mulitple emails- many of which trying to get you to sign up for services.

   I did find his reasoning on the delation vs inflation debate dissapointing,  Very little discussion on energy issues, entitlement programs, etc.

Would love to hear if anyone else read the book and what thoughts are.  Also interested to hear others thoughts on Weiss himself (the good, the bad, the ugly).

Kman

SagerXX's picture
SagerXX
Status: Diamond Member (Offline)
Joined: Feb 11 2009
Posts: 2252
Re: I just read - Ultimate Depression Survival Guide by ...
Kman wrote:

Once one registers on the Money and Markets website, you will be hit daily with mulitple emails- many of which trying to get you to sign up for services.

I did find his reasoning on the delation vs inflation debate dissapointing,  Very little discussion on energy issues, entitlement programs, etc.

FWIW, the multiple-spam come-ons would be a major turn off for me.  

And anybody who's saying no-inflation-is-a-dead-certainty is, in my book, not seeing straight.  It is at the very least an ominously looming possibility, IMO.  

And to leave out energy as a factor?  Hmmm...lunacy comes to mind, unless one is discussing only the very immediate short term IMO.

Viva -- Sager

Hotrod's picture
Hotrod
Status: Silver Member (Offline)
Joined: Apr 20 2009
Posts: 187
Re: I just read - Ultimate Depression Survival Guide by ...

 

Kman,

Thanks for asking about Martin Wiess' book.  I just picked up a copy Monday.  I honestly don't know what to think of his prediction of a deflationary depression.  A financial adviser for our company is very concerned about a hyper inflationary depression-the worst of all possible worlds.  What I want to know is how to protect myself from several different eventualities.  I have yet to read about any advice that I consider above average.

 

JL Lord's picture
JL Lord
Status: Bronze Member (Offline)
Joined: Feb 17 2009
Posts: 30
Re: I just read - Ultimate Depression Survival Guide by ...

kman

fwiw,  there is a newsletter that I am copied on where the author (a $ manager) continually
makes the argument that we're in for a market rise; a multi-year bull (obviously we will have
pullbacks along the way).  His rationale is that with the Fed (and the world's central banks)
putting so much $ into the system, it has to eventually go somewhere.  It will lead to inflation;
and it will find its way to stocks, as well as find its way into productivty enhancements (which ultimately
lifts the stocks of the recipient as well as the producer of that productivity enhancement).

JL Lord

 

belli's picture
belli
Status: Member (Offline)
Joined: Apr 19 2009
Posts: 10
Re: I just read - Ultimate Depression Survival Guide by ...

Inverse ETF are great if you are trading short term but can hurt you long term.  Read this before using:

time decay ETF  

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