I don't know, maybe we should not be as worried

37 posts / 0 new
Last post
etsan's picture
etsan
Status: Bronze Member (Offline)
Joined: Apr 22 2009
Posts: 57
I don't know, maybe we should not be as worried

Hello,

I haven't posted in here for the longest time. However, I recently went over The Crash Course and I'm not sure about the validity of some of the data. Chris mentions so much about exponential growth and compound growth all heading toward certain limits and restrictions and that we are fast reaching to that limited point. For example the world population chart. The chart shows a hockey stick showing the the population is multiplying like crazy. But when I look at the population chart from typing "world population" in google, it doesn't look like that at all. I know that the years Chris charts out is many centuries. But if that is the case, I don't know if we need to be so worried to the point that we are expecting complete collapse in the next 15 years? (Chris says its going to be VERY DIFFERENT in the next 20 years and CC has been around a few years now?). Maybe the data Chris is presented is way on the extreme side.

This is just one example that I'm questioning some of the data presented in the CC. Let me be clear. I am in no way close to the research scientist that Chris is. Heck I barely understand most of the threads in here because they are so deep, some I don't even understand at all. However, I think it is good if we had some threads that really dig deep and question some of the data that is presented in the CC before we get all panicky about the future and alll this doom upon us. This will help us strengthen the facts or belief that most of us have about the dire future if any disputes on the data are completely shot down with logic and better data. I wish there are some smart people here that can question the data presented by Chris because it can make for a different perspective on things as we move into the future. Maybe its not that bad but yet people are moving out of the country like Erik T and I keep seeing threads about "Last dance before its over.." etc.

One more thing in regards to peak oil, since every country hides their data on oil reserves because of political reasons, no one knows for sure how much we have left in the world. So if no one knows, why should we be afraid that its running out. For all we know, there may be reserves enough to last another 1000 years.

deggleton's picture
deggleton
Status: Gold Member (Offline)
Joined: Mar 18 2008
Posts: 250
Re: I don't know, maybe we should not be as worried

CM does not have to be 100% correct for me to see that my community, like so many, has been taken for a ride to a dead end.  My community relies too little on itself and should strive for a better balance.  Whatever the status of natural resources and so-called wealth in the world, we can value more highly what and who is at hand, with benefits for people and places, near and far.

Davos's picture
Davos
Status: Diamond Member (Offline)
Joined: Sep 17 2008
Posts: 3620
Re: I don't know, maybe we should not be as worried

I'm sure there are at least 1,000 years of reserves. Maybe much, much more. I mean why else would there be an oil spill? Why else would they have gone after such impossible to get oil? Had to be the fun and the challenge of it all! And why else would we be going from 1 barrel of oil to get 100 barrels of oil to using so many barrels of oil that one day soon we can be down to game over for when you use 1 to get 1 why bother?

Just how many flipping dinosaur and flipping ferns do you think there were?

OPEC producers get to pump based on what their "proven" reserves are stated. They never go down, oil taken out of the ground is never subtracted from the "tank". Enron math!

I'm not going to waste my time commenting on the rest of it.

I'd suggest you go watch Dennis Kneale and Maria I can't stand your voice Bartawhatever and Cramer the Clown on CNBS.

I'm always interested in listening to valid merits that can shatter my beliefs - but when you have oil companies demonstrating fear by going after impossible to get oil that should tell you something. And let me be a Richard: If it doesn't I don't think listening to the CC 1,000 times will help you.

Lately I'm seeing a lot of posts like this - so much so I'm going to take a break from posting. Hate to do that because there are a lot of folks who want Madoff (want to believe in Santa, the Tooth Ferry & the Easter Bunny) but my blood pressure isn't worth trying to stop this BS. You know, if people want to believe that the USA is in great shape then I'm not going to stop them from buying Treasuries by explaining we are Enron right before people woke up and listened to the minority who said Enron was bust.

It is absolutely maddening to argue that the sun does not rise in the west.

Second to Bernanke, Romer, Rubin, Greenspan, Paulson & Summers I have never seen such utter moronic [email protected] 

land2341's picture
land2341
Status: Gold Member (Offline)
Joined: Aug 20 2009
Posts: 402
Re: I don't know, maybe we should not be as worried

OK Davos,  let's try really hard not to be rally mean to the new guy.  Etsan is entitled to his opinion.  

Having said that,  I understand completely the desire to stick my head back in the sand and say it is all going to be OK because it always has been before.   The problem with that is that it conveniently forgets things like the ice cutters and ice marketers before the invention of the refrigerator.  That was a great business to get into!  Then the joy of getting into the Boilermakers union!  Wow!  You were set for life.  In those cases it was considered a positive innovation that made the change,  sweeping and altering society,  but more people won than lost so we all thought it was acceptable.

But, other societies have suffered catastrophic resource failures in the past.  In most cases eventually the people found new places to live and created a new society.  Humanity soldiered on.  But, it sucked for those people stuck in the changeover.  Those people who invested their entire being in the status quo were blindsided and destroyed.  Those who were prepared to shift gears and move in different directions survived to thrive again.  What is happening is a changeover.  None of us really know what that will look like,  but we all do know we need to be on the nimble side to survive it.

britinbe's picture
britinbe
Status: Gold Member (Offline)
Joined: Dec 28 2008
Posts: 381
Re: I don't know, maybe we should not be as worried
etsan wrote:

Hello,

I haven't posted in here for the longest time. However, I recently went over The Crash Course and I'm not sure about the validity of some of the data. Chris mentions so much about exponential growth and compound growth all heading toward certain limits and restrictions and that we are fast reaching to that limited point. For example the world population chart. The chart shows a hockey stick showing the the population is multiplying like crazy. But when I look at the population chart from typing "world population" in google, it doesn't look like that at all. I know that the years Chris charts out is many centuries. But if that is the case, I don't know if we need to be so worried to the point that we are expecting complete collapse in the next 15 years? (Chris says its going to be VERY DIFFERENT in the next 20 years and CC has been around a few years now?). Maybe the data Chris is presented is way on the extreme side.

This is just one example that I'm questioning some of the data presented in the CC. Let me be clear. I am in no way close to the research scientist that Chris is. Heck I barely understand most of the threads in here because they are so deep, some I don't even understand at all. However, I think it is good if we had some threads that really dig deep and question some of the data that is presented in the CC before we get all panicky about the future and alll this doom upon us. This will help us strengthen the facts or belief that most of us have about the dire future if any disputes on the data are completely shot down with logic and better data. I wish there are some smart people here that can question the data presented by Chris because it can make for a different perspective on things as we move into the future. Maybe its not that bad but yet people are moving out of the country like Erik T and I keep seeing threads about "Last dance before its over.." etc.

One more thing in regards to peak oil, since every country hides their data on oil reserves because of political reasons, no one knows for sure how much we have left in the world. So if no one knows, why should we be afraid that its running out. For all we know, there may be reserves enough to last another 1000 years.

Hi Etsan,

I don't know your age oryour circumstances, but if you had kids, would you consider life insurance as a saftey net for them or make a will?  Would that mean that you are going to die tomorrow?

As as been pointed out by Chris and many others, the age of cheap and easy oil is over (unless you live in Louisiana where you can just walk down to the beach!), and no country wants to rock the boat too much as they know what it will mean and so this game of deceit and manipulation continues.......................

 

Davos's picture
Davos
Status: Diamond Member (Offline)
Joined: Sep 17 2008
Posts: 3620
Re: I don't know, maybe we should not be as worried
land2341 wrote:

OK Davos,  let's try really hard not to be rally mean to the new guy.  Etsan is entitled to his opinion.  

Mean? Maybe if so many morons didn't believe in the Santa, the Easter Bunny & the Tooth Ferry we'd have a sustainable society instead of the mess we are about to enter into. You want to see what mean is just wait, or Google Argentina +Currency Crisis +Starvation.

Moronic thinking is what is mean, it causes tremendous pain and suffering. Mean people s*ck - don't ever call me mean!

land2341's picture
land2341
Status: Gold Member (Offline)
Joined: Aug 20 2009
Posts: 402
Re: I don't know, maybe we should not be as worried

So Davos,  have you popped over to the thread about dealing with your anger??

 

 

Morpheus's picture
Morpheus
Status: Diamond Member (Offline)
Joined: Dec 27 2008
Posts: 1200
Re: I don't know, maybe we should not be as worried

Estan. Welcome to the site. Listen, debate is good. Doubt is good. Maybe you don't have all the information. Maybe you saw a flaw in the course. Truth stands on it's own merits. Don't be afraid to ask questions. It's welcome here. 

Davos's picture
Davos
Status: Diamond Member (Offline)
Joined: Sep 17 2008
Posts: 3620
Re: I don't know, maybe we should not be as worried
land2341 wrote:

So Davos,  have you popped over to the thread about dealing with your anger??

Anger & stupidity are two different things. If there is a thread you can't fix stupid let me know.

Erik T.'s picture
Erik T.
Status: Diamond Member (Offline)
Joined: Aug 5 2008
Posts: 1234
Re: I don't know, maybe we should not be as worried

Welcome back, Estan.

As Morpheus said, it's healthy to respectfully ask questions. What got us so far down the path to being so screwed as a society was all the sheeple who just believe whatever is told to them without questioning it. So I say, GOOD FOR YOU to question that which doesn't make sense to you!

Having said that, I'd like to respectfully say that I think your objections not supported by the facts. The truth about oil reserves is that producing countries have a huge financial incentive to overstate their reserves. Sure, it could be that we really have a thousand years plus of supply in the middle-east, and they're just holding back. It could also be that Goldman Sachs had the opportunity to profit twice as much as they did last year, but they decided not to because they didn't want to seem greedy. The odds of both scenarios are about equal.

Chris never said world population would go critical in 15 years, but the arguments he does make are quite valid. We'll get into economic disaster from debt and energy problems before the population problems hit us. But the point ofthe crash course is that all of these things are coming, and any ONE of them is cause for serious concern.

A lot of the stuff you bring up has already been discussed many times over in these forums. While I agree with Morpeus that there's nothing wrong with respectfully questioning arguments you don't find to be fully persuasive, I think you'll also find that many of us who have been at this for a while are tired of going over the basics, and unfortunately some are so tired of it that they come across as being intolerant even though they're really good guys underneath it all.

So having addressed some of your questions, I will now respectfully point out that by using the search box and going through some old forum discussions, you can probably find answers to more of your questions and avoid getting pushback from members of this community who have been studying this so long that they sometimes forget to cut the new guy a little slack. Please know this is a really great community. This is hard material to come to terms with, and in defense of my friend Davos, when you've been on this site for a couple years and another newbie comes along every other week asking the same old questions, it's possible to loose your cool and blow a gasket on them.

Best,

Erik

Davos's picture
Davos
Status: Diamond Member (Offline)
Joined: Sep 17 2008
Posts: 3620
Re: I don't know, maybe we should not be as worried
Erik T. wrote:

... when you've been on this site for a couple years and another newbie comes along every other week asking the same old questions, ....

With all respect I didn't look at it as the same old question. We have an unprecedented oil spill in the Gulf. This wasn't the usual tanker or hurricane hitting the pipe to or from the refinery. There are 2 types of oil: Easy to get which is in decline and the hard to get. Hard to get in this case became possibly impossible to get.

Questions about PO I welcome with open arms.

But even a hermit living under a rock has heard about this "spill". This was, boiled down, a question of absolute stupidity and zero common sense. Obviously if there were 1,000 years of oil reserves we wouldn't be drilling a mile down to get, what right now is impossible to get oil.

Bashing 4 years of work is one thing. Applying "logic" like this when there is an economic, ecological, and energy crisis before ones eye goes light years beyond another newbie coming along every week and asking the same old question.

If you are this _ _ _ _ _ then turn on CNBS and pull the USB chord to the keyboard so you don't screw up someone else who wants to believe what is akin to Easter Bunny logic. Saying the threads are too deep to understand is an understatement. Hell, Cramer might be too hard to understand if you can't see what just happened in the gulf and at the very least ask yourself "Why did they drill for such hard to get oil when there are 1,000 years of oil reserves?"

Logic like this (clearly demonstrating no logic at all) indicates one has lost their ability to think, let alone think for themselves. It is why society is where it is today, it is the absolute underpinning of all our problems: war, energy, and economic issues. What this demonstrates to me is that we have a number of people in society that can't think and need to be told what to think. I can deal with that.

Most days.

When people who demonstrate they can't think decide to come here and bash a thinker - THAT I WON'T deal with.

 

etsan's picture
etsan
Status: Bronze Member (Offline)
Joined: Apr 22 2009
Posts: 57
Re: I don't know, maybe we should not be as worried

Wow I didn't know this thread would make some of you (Davos) so angry. Sorry if it did, that is not my intention at all. Also, I don't mind that some of you may call me whatever, no offense taken at all. My whole point for this thread was not to say that the information is BS or absolutely no use. It was just so that we can get healthy discussions and debates about data presented whether its from CC or from Chris himself. Of course for this to happen we need smart people on both sides of the discussion. Like I've said, if there are arguments/data that are to the contrary of The Crash Course and they are quickly being shot down by better arguments/data, it will only strengthen our knowledge of the future.

I myself believe that a great change is coming after viewing the CC a few times already ever since last year. So I'm not completely new. By the way, I've already watched the Argentina crisis videos. I've also watched Collapse my Mike Ruppert, zeitgest, and research 911 more carefully. In addition, I've already read the The Creature From Jekyll Island. I've completely withdrew my IRA already and also have been preaching this sort of stuff to friends and famiy of mines. All who think that I'm a little insance or some sort of lunatic. So what I'm saying is that, I too am a believer. I have a family of my own and am trying to prepare them for the future. That is why I have stuck around for a year now every since being introduced to this site. But like I said, I'm not as smart as you guys in terms of investments, economics, and everything related on this site. If there was a way to view my previous posts, you would see that yes I'm am new, very new. In fact all of my questions are newbie questions in my previous posts. But I ask those questions because I'm trying to learn. So if you guys can just bear with me in my beginning steps, I would really appreciate it. Thanks!

Subprime JD's picture
Subprime JD
Status: Platinum Member (Offline)
Joined: Feb 17 2009
Posts: 562
Re: I don't know, maybe we should not be as worried

"On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero"

Tyler Durden

idoctor's picture
idoctor
Status: Diamond Member (Offline)
Joined: Oct 4 2008
Posts: 1731
Re: I don't know, maybe we should not be as worried

Estan I appreciate your post. I waffle around on some of this at times. Sometimes I am like Davos (who I enjoy his posts) & see we are 100% screwed but other days I think it will not be this bad that fast anyway. None of us know for sure how this is going to unravel. What does collapse really mean anyway...the sky has fallen.....the end of the world LOL....I think not.

It means an adjustment to me....one that I hope to readily adapt to & maybe even out front of. Everything is relative to what is around us. As long as we don't "flip out" & maintain our composure we should be ok IMHO. One thing for sure no matter how this unfolds we are much better off than previous generations. We have far more developed & out of the ground at our finger tips to regroup with. 

ericg's picture
ericg
Status: Silver Member (Offline)
Joined: Mar 23 2010
Posts: 101
Re: I don't know, maybe we should not be as worried

Santa's not real.... or the Easter Bunny....?Yell

deggleton's picture
deggleton
Status: Gold Member (Offline)
Joined: Mar 18 2008
Posts: 250
Re: I don't know, maybe we should not be as worried
idoctor wrote:

One thing for sure no matter how this unfolds we are much better off than previous generations. We have far more developed & out of the ground at our finger tips to regroup with. 

Elaborate, please.  Is it oil that's developed & out of the ground?

I've tended to think we are much softer and much less skilled, in general, than previous generations, so you surprised me.

Arthur Vibert's picture
Arthur Vibert
Status: Silver Member (Offline)
Joined: May 16 2008
Posts: 116
Re: I don't know, maybe we should not be as worried

But when I look at the population chart from typing "world population" in google, it doesn't look like that at all.

I just looked at that chart. It doesn't look like a hockey stick - that's true. It's a chart that only covers the population growth from 1960 - 2008, a period of 48 years. It is interesting to note that during that time the world population grew from approximately 3 billion people to almost 7 billion - more than doubling. Taken out of context this tells us little about what to expect going forward; however if we examine the historical figures we see the familiar hockey stick. You can find out lots more about this by going to:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_population

It is important also to note that charts and graphs must be read carefully. Depending on how the x and y axes on the chart we're discussing (http://www.google.com/publicdata?ds=wb-wdi&met=sp_pop_totl&tdim=true&dl=...) are incremented, the line could look virtually flat or shoot almost straight up. So you must look at the actual numbers, not just at the picture.

While it is always good to question, it is frustrating when the question is not well-considered. Doing a little more research than just looking at the first chart you see on Google would have enlightened you and helped you understand the thinking that got the Crash Course to where it is.

Arthur

Subprime JD's picture
Subprime JD
Status: Platinum Member (Offline)
Joined: Feb 17 2009
Posts: 562
Re: I don't know, maybe we should not be as worried

The way I see it, the sheeple have got one thing right, and that is that they cant change anything, so why worry. It is true to an extent. We can read all the articles we want, and learn all this stuff, but in the end the system will do what it does. Where we differ from the sheeple is that we will be better prepared (hopefully). So what can we do? Buy some PM's, some food, maybe cropland if we are wealthy enough. And what if your not wealthy enough to buy crop land? Then you make friends with someone who DOES own some land.

We can waste all this time and energy determining WHEN, WHAT, HOW, this crisis unfolds, step by step, day by day, OR we can casually observe the situation the way Chris does. Im glad hes not all over the market movements everyday otherwise he would go nuts.

Enjoy the few more hours we have until the stupid little digits that represent "markets" open in Asia.

 

Peace

 

SteveW's picture
SteveW
Status: Gold Member (Offline)
Joined: Jan 21 2010
Posts: 490
Re: I don't know, maybe we should not be as worried

Hi etsan, thanks for asking the question. There's a lot of stuff in the CC and the brilliance of CM is that he has brought these disparate areas together and fashioned a coherent, understandable, whole.

His emphasis on exponential growth is critical as it is the underpinning of the CC and he points out that the human mind is not really capable of easily understanding this kind of growth. I will address only exponential growth. A critical feature of exponential growth is the doubling time, that is the amount of time required to double the previous amount of whatever. For example at 5% interest it takes around 14 years for your money to double. Sounds like its no big deal but I got a shock when I read and calculated it to be true that a penny invested at 5% when Christ was born would now have a value that would be worth the weight of the Earth in gold a sufficient number of times that millions of gold Earths could be placed end to end extending between 3 and 4 light years!

Of course that's impossible just as its impossible to ever pay off the interest debt on the debt money we've been using for 100-300 years. The debt money system as designed will collapse (as CM recently said at some point debt service will be 100% of the productive economy) and it seems that we are living in the final stages of this system.

Exponential growth is always unsustainable. Eventually you run out of some critical input. The same is true of human population growth, it is unsustainable. Not only unsustainable but there is good evidence that we have overshot Earth's carrying capacity so that even if our population stayed around 6 billion we are rapidly exhausting the energy and minerals needed to run our society and rapidly converting all the remaining natural ecosystems to human maintained plantations.

Thomas Malthus first pointed out this population problem in the 18th century when he stated that an unchecked population increases in a geometrical ratio (i.e. exponentially). More recently Paul and Anne Ehrlich wrote "The Population Bomb" in 1968 and the sequel "The Population Explosion" in 1990. 

ericg's picture
ericg
Status: Silver Member (Offline)
Joined: Mar 23 2010
Posts: 101
Re: I don't know, maybe we should not be as worried

On the serious side... I'm pretty much convinced we've hit peak oil. Mostly what I've seen over my life time can only be explained by exponential growth (at least I feel that way) I am 47 years old. I started working when I was 15 years old. I consistantly made higher wages year over year. yet I am still struggling from paycheck to paycheck. I own my car out-right, my mortgage is less than $700, my bills are less than $500, Im not a druggy, or practicing alcoholic. My company provides me with excellent healthcare insurance and I am in pretty good health besides. My children have moved out and are pretty much on their own (do they ever really become "on their own"). I just feel like it should be easier than this. Granted I'm not making $100,000 a year, but damn ! I guess you could expect a little inflation, or some things to rise in price for various reasons, but everything... all at the same pace...? So, even though I've had higher wages year over year since I started working I feel I have been forced to live at or near poverty level from the beginning.... I think that may say alot. Anybody have an answer to that ?

JAG's picture
JAG
Status: Diamond Member (Offline)
Joined: Oct 26 2008
Posts: 2492
The Davos Intervention

Everybody meet at Casa Davos, its time for an intervention.

Davos, what is the deal with all the frustration lately? Obviously blogging suffers from a lack of body language context, but your writing is coming across to me as from someone who is extremely angry, bitter, and frustrated. Why is someone as well prepared as you, in such a seemingly negative place? You seem to be jumping from one conversation to another picking fights. I know I don't know you personally, but I've been around here long enough to recognize that this is out of character for you.

Who cares if we have different ideas on how things might unfold, we are a family bound by one important objective; survival. As you are my brother here in this community, I'm rightly concerned with your welfare. Is there anything that I can do to help?

Best...Jeff

xraymike79's picture
xraymike79
Status: Diamond Member (Offline)
Joined: Aug 24 2008
Posts: 2040
Re: I don't know, maybe we should not be as worried
ericg wrote:

On the serious side... I'm pretty much convinced we've hit peak oil. Mostly what I've seen over my life time can only be explained by exponential growth (at least I feel that way) I am 47 years old. I started working when I was 15 years old. I consistantly made higher wages year over year. yet I am still struggling from paycheck to paycheck. I own my car out-right, my mortgage is less than $700, my bills are less than $500, Im not a druggy, or practicing alcoholic. My company provides me with excellent healthcare insurance and I am in pretty good health besides. My children have moved out and are pretty much on their own (do they ever really become "on their own"). I just feel like it should be easier than this. Granted I'm not making $100,000 a year, but damn ! I guess you could expect a little inflation, or some things to rise in price for various reasons, but everything... all at the same pace...? So, even though I've had higher wages year over year since I started working I feel I have been forced to live at or near poverty level from the beginning.... I think that may say alot. Anybody have an answer to that ?

You're running on the treadmill of a debt-based fiat money system. In tandem with that, the world is experiencing a shrinking resource base, sucked up by a growing population of people emulating the American "way-of-life." Collapse is guaranteed in the present scenario. Downsize and try to live more sustainably is all you can do; otherwise you must work 2 and 3 other jobs which is not sustainable. You are captured and enslaved by our present system. It's good to turn to morality in these time and use the original teachings of the great religions in some of the everyday decisions you make.

SaturdaySun's picture
SaturdaySun
Status: Member (Offline)
Joined: Mar 6 2010
Posts: 14
Re: I don't know, maybe we should not be as worried

So far Hubbert's predictions have proven to be fairly accurate; I can't believe people would be questioning whether it is really worth concerning ourselves about the effects of oil depletion, particularly on this site of all places...

Optimistic estimations of peak production forecast the global decline will begin by 2020 or later, and assume major investments in alternatives will occur before a crisis, without requiring major changes in the lifestyle of heavily oil-consuming nations.

(from link in text above )

2020 is only 10 years away, how long do you think we require to prepare ourselves for a massive overhaul of our way of living as we currently know it? (Honestly would like to know what you think?)

Nacci's picture
Nacci
Status: Silver Member (Offline)
Joined: Apr 22 2009
Posts: 194
Re: I don't know, maybe we should not be as worried
land2341 wrote:

OK Davos,  let's try really hard not to be rally mean to the new guy.  Etsan is entitled to his opinion.  

Having said that,  I understand completely the desire to stick my head back in the sand and say it is all going to be OK because it always has been before.   The problem with that is that it conveniently forgets things like the ice cutters and ice marketers before the invention of the refrigerator.  That was a great business to get into!  Then the joy of getting into the Boilermakers union!  Wow!  You were set for life.  In those cases it was considered a positive innovation that made the change,  sweeping and altering society,  but more people won than lost so we all thought it was acceptable.

But, other societies have suffered catastrophic resource failures in the past.  In most cases eventually the people found new places to live and created a new society.  Humanity soldiered on.  But, it sucked for those people stuck in the changeover.  Those people who invested their entire being in the status quo were blindsided and destroyed.  Those who were prepared to shift gears and move in different directions survived to thrive again.  What is happening is a changeover.  None of us really know what that will look like,  but we all do know we need to be on the nimble side to survive it.

I am in agreement with Davos's positions the majority of the time and can easily understand his frustration.  Having said that I want to say that I feel that this reply from land2341 is one of the finest I've read in this forum.  Well said.

Davos's picture
Davos
Status: Diamond Member (Offline)
Joined: Sep 17 2008
Posts: 3620
Re: The Davos Intervention
JAG wrote:

Davos, what is the deal with all the frustration lately? Obviously blogging suffers from a lack of body language context, but your writing is coming across to me as from someone who is extremely angry, bitter, and frustrated. Why is someone as well prepared as you, in such a seemingly negative place? You seem to be jumping from one conversation to another picking fights. I know I don't know you personally, but I've been around here long enough to recognize that this is out of character for you.

I can clearly see how this is going to go down and it is NOT a pretty picture. There were only a few ways for this to have been played out, they chose the worst possible one. I have no doubt I'll get through this and for that matter come out better, but, sad won't even describe what reading the news will be like. 

Utter and absolute stupidity got us into this mess. I'm talking collective stupidity. Collective ignorance that permitted this to happen.

Anger: Yeah, I'm really po'd by what I read lately. I'm not talking new to the CC questions, I'm not talking about difference of merit and or a healthy debate on a difference of opinion. I'm talking total freaking denial.

The first step to any fix is admitting that there is a problem.

Collectively, we can't even do that right.

Don't worry about an intervention, I'm taking a long break from reading the comments of anyone I don't seriously enjoy learning from. I'm going to the read only mode for a while. Just for the record, the primary reason I was so vocal in the past was to prevent anyone from having a knee jerk Easter Bunny reaction and getting burnt by another too good to be true, want to believe the best, Madoff scheme.

Lately it is becoming too tiring to argue with someone that a 9 trillion dollar GAAP NPV deficit is anything but the US being in good sound financial shape. The oil spill in the Gulf has PO written all over it.

People want to believe the best. That is why Madoff did so well. Why pension funds and countries like Iceland bought trash. When people poo-hoo problems with statements like we have 1,000 years of reserves, or the USA is years away from insolvency and we can cut the unfunded liabilities and turn things around - other people put off what they should be doing and buy into this Madoff BS. IMO they do as much damage as Madoff, the rating agencies or those who concocted the pump and dump subprime scheme.

Take care.

 

Davos's picture
Davos
Status: Diamond Member (Offline)
Joined: Sep 17 2008
Posts: 3620
Re: I don't know, maybe we should not be as worried
Nacci wrote:
land2341 wrote:

OK Davos,  let's try really hard not to be rally mean to the new guy.  Etsan is entitled to his opinion.  

Having said that,  I understand completely the desire to stick my head back in the sand and say it is all going to be OK because it always has been before.   The problem with that is that it conveniently forgets things like the ice cutters and ice marketers before the invention of the refrigerator.  That was a great business to get into!  Then the joy of getting into the Boilermakers union!  Wow!  You were set for life.  In those cases it was considered a positive innovation that made the change,  sweeping and altering society,  but more people won than lost so we all thought it was acceptable.

But, other societies have suffered catastrophic resource failures in the past.  In most cases eventually the people found new places to live and created a new society.  Humanity soldiered on.  But, it sucked for those people stuck in the changeover.  Those people who invested their entire being in the status quo were blindsided and destroyed.  Those who were prepared to shift gears and move in different directions survived to thrive again.  What is happening is a changeover.  None of us really know what that will look like,  but we all do know we need to be on the nimble side to survive it.

I am in agreement with Davos's positions the majority of the time and can easily understand his frustration.  Having said that I want to say that I feel that this reply from land2341 is one of the finest I've read in this forum.  Well said.

Before I flip over to the read only mode: I'll respond to this in more detail than before.

A few weeks ago I was at a clients house. Super couple. I've had discussions about stuff I read on their pension fund and the state that runs it. I've mentioned PMs and the 5 gs to them before. Lately they were interested in PMs. It was at the time when GATA was getting a lot of press. Personally I don't believe GATA is right. What I do think that GATA bought to light for a LOT of people is that a lot of folks thought gold certificates and other paper with the LBMA or other institutions was really allocated gold. I think when people realize there is a reason the LBMA prospectus costs $300 bucks they will also conclude that they don't really hold allocated PMs. I think because of  this people will move to physical or move to funds like Sprotts or bullion vaults. When this occurs I see massive moves in PMs. Massive. When I tossed out a number that I thought was possible she wanted to buy.

That truly bothered me.

I realized then and there why there is this massive denial when I broach the Crash Course or the economy with people. They only want to believe the best. And if what I'm telling them won't make them an instant millionaire it isn't worth it. They don't want the truth. They want Bernie Madoff.

They don't want to risk a grand or 10 grand on PM insurance that could pay off their fixed debt in a hyperinflation, but they will gamble that much on the chance of winning the gold lottery.

Our society has been programmed to fail.

Nacci's reply is a good one - but saying this is a changeover doesn't go into the detail of pain, suffering and massive loss of life. Look, we can stick two horses in our garage and do like the Amish. Life will go on. But the way this is going to play out will not be a pretty transition.

ericg's picture
ericg
Status: Silver Member (Offline)
Joined: Mar 23 2010
Posts: 101
Re: I don't know, maybe we should not be as worried

I shoulda said does anybody have anything to add to that.... I'm already convinced of the collapse scenerio... I am pretty much prepared for the worst and hoping for the best. Thanks for the upbeat words tho :)

dgilmart's picture
dgilmart
Status: Bronze Member (Offline)
Joined: Aug 3 2009
Posts: 40
Re: I don't know, maybe we should not be as worried

Estan,

Good point and good thread - no sacred cows. My advice on how to approach it would be along the following:

- There is a constant stream of messages being bombarded at you and everyone who has any contact in the mainstream media - most everything you hear is "messaged" in some fashion to achieve an objective, be it a political party spinning to their side, or leadership trying to avoid panic or other behavior, etc. We have very few "friends" giving objective info, though many do intend to be that, they are often subject to "spin" from those they are getting info.

- The crash course is one giant questioning of that mainstream view and packaged message we get, and crash course vs what we hear in news conflicts at many points. You are absolutely correct you need to decide for yourself which is correct - and have an open mind as you demonstrate here in this thread while doing so. so pick a few points where there is massive disagreement between these 2 narratives, and dig in and see what you think the evidence supports.

- For example, you mention oil reserves. there's tons of info. it's a lot of work, but the issues here are sufficiently important it warrants it. Read "Twilight in the Desert" by Matthew Simmons and get into the details of the reserves and how they are developed. Read info from Exxon and CERA (the biggest "no problem here!") think tank. Test the crash course against the opposing views and see what you decide for yourself.

- Read a lot (this takes a lot of books) to undestand the economy, and who predicted the 2008 troubles or Real estate decline and what were they saying before that happened, and how sound was their logic. how did this compare to what the Fed and others were saying? Who is putting a more credible and detailed narrative for the path in front of us?

Otherwise, it'll just more opinions arguing and it's just noise. But i think your question is THE critical question. And we all need to get an answer we are comfortable with personally, as the implications are big on how to live our lives, and we shouldn't do it because Chris Martenson is a smart guy. there are lots of smart guys that say the opposite. i think you need to do an extended period of work, testing and comparing.

you are right - people have always pointed out potential disasters for a long long time, and things always seem to work out somehow. The system and world is more resilient than we think in many many places. But a blind assumption that somehow, someway, i'll just keep head in sand and assume what always kept happening will keep happening is a pretty big copout that self and loved ones deserve more. You're not going there I don't think - i'm just saying, the work to figure it out for ourselves is critical and non-replacable. And it is a lot of work, researching for yourself, instead of just searching for most eloquent argument. 

In any case - good thread to raise and hope you work it through in a way that makes you know and feel you've done what you yourself and your family deserve to neither panic needlessly, nor get caught with a disaster you could have greatly reduced personal suffering with greater foresight.

Doug

Montana Native's picture
Montana Native
Status: Silver Member (Offline)
Joined: Mar 17 2009
Posts: 162
Re: I don't know, maybe we should not be as worried

Etsan, try to think of the popuation growth on a larger timeline try 10,000 years

http://www.globalchange.umich.edu/globalchange2/current/lectures/human_pop/human_pop.html

Also keep in mind the eyedropper baseball stadium story, try to understand the exponential function.

Cheers, TJ

Morpheus's picture
Morpheus
Status: Diamond Member (Offline)
Joined: Dec 27 2008
Posts: 1200
Re: I don't know, maybe we should not be as worried

SCALE can affect how the same graphs looks. If you vary the scale of x and y, I can convince you that you're looking at two different sets of data. I know. My younger guys (engineers) at work always try that. The problem is that they're presenting data to engineers. We see it right away. 

rickets's picture
rickets
Status: Silver Member (Offline)
Joined: Jun 8 2009
Posts: 238
Re: I don't know, maybe we should not be as worried

Etsan,

Thanks for the thread.  Questioning ones core beliefs is critical for true understanding and faith in your own stance.  Playing devils advocate to the beliefs you hold steadfast makes you intelligent and shows you are willing to adapt and change. 

I like this site for lots of reasons.  I have learned a ton and prepared my family for a much different future.  My preparations might look quite different in many ways to others on this site, but regardless of what I have chosen to do vs others on this site I bet we are all way more prepared than the masses.  I feel comfortable, and I feel the path I have chosen is much more prepared, sustainable and healthy. 

That said, I applaud you for questioning certain forecasts that are close to impossible to time or quantify.  Point is, there are so many moving parts now involved its really tough to forecast out much more than a year or two - and even that is quite difficult.  The bottom line is that volatility is here, and likely only going to get more dramatic (volatility in this case meaning change....change in energy prices, food supply, etc).  With increasing volatility comes and increased need for preparation and cushion.  Really, it makes no difference if any of these numbers on the CM site happen in a year or in 30 - - the point is any one of them occurring anytime soon leads to such volatility that change will occur quite quickly.  You dont have to stress on making accurate predictions.  Rather, I think  the only thing close to a certainty is giant increase in change in shorter and shorter periods of time.  So you have to get yourself in a situation to be flexible and adaptable and withstand much more stress than the average Joe.

I think the members of this community are the smartest group I have encountered anywhere online.  I passionately disagree with many of them in lots of areas - - but I sure have learned a ton and where I disagree I have personally become much more confident in my ideas.  Over the past year, I have done a 180 on several of my beliefs through the education I have received here...and am happy for it.

That said, with all the wisdom found here, there is an incredible lack of consideration given to adaptation, innovation, and positive habit changes.  While these are also an unknown, they are also a certainty.  So, with increased volatility, I also see increased adaptation/innovation (forced or not).  I think we will be living much differently in 20 years, but I dont see doom and gloom.  Rather, I see some rough times ahead where people are forced to live more simply and resource reduced lives.  That doesnt mean end times, nor does it mean massive starvation.  Here are a couple examples of things no one seems to think of when forecasting here (I am not going to go into detail, nor do I want a debate re the merits...just examples here to get the wheels turning):

Water scarcity:  In the US, the amount of wasted water that can be saved overnight with a few easy changes is greater than the amount needed to live off and farm with.  Lawn irrigation and small changes to shower and toilet plumbing (and water costs) can lead to dramatically reduced water usage. Will this solve the problem?  No, but it will kick the can way down the road.  It changes the possible timing of disaster.

Oil drilling:  When man learned to fly, look at all the failures and deaths it took to get us to the point where flying was safe.  This deep water drilling will have major disasters and death, but humans will learn and get better as they go through it many times.  Of course, the energy in vs energy out decreases....but, as we learn and get better these locations will still be worth it.  Now, that doesnt mean the oil crisis wont happen...it just might...might change when it will happen.  I encourage everyone to look at oil supplies in the US right now, and why they are so high.  Take a look at where some of the major surprises are re supply and how that is resulting in Cushing being almost entirely full and will likely be full within a month.  I ask you....are you aware of why this is occurring?  Again, not anything that will change peak oil or a crisis long term, but things that might change your estimated time frame.  Also, some interesting developments in technologies that have improved the energy in, energy out of these very recent supply sources.  Point is....dont let down your guard and keep doing research to make sure your time frames and preparations make sense.

Food:  As food becomes more scarce, meat is likely to cost way more and is likely to be taxed more to the point where people eat way less meat.  With way less meat comes way more food available for humans.  The amount of oil and crops wasted on growing meat is insane.  With a shift away from that, all the crops sent to cattle/pig farms/ranches could be diverted to people.  The net food situation would improve enough to kick the can down the road quite a bit.  Again, crisis not averted if the population continues its current path (either straight line or exponential from here)....but certainly changes the time frame.

Money - the US is in big trouble, and there is no way we could ever pay for all the liabilities we currently have.  Crisis is coming IF nothing changes.  When?  Consider a few things that could change that are part of the equation:  What if congress moves to reduce SS benefits at the clip of 1% per year for the next 20 years....so that in ten years the liabilities have been shaven by 10%.  What if a one time weath tax...or a yearly weath tax comes in that progressively taxes everyone with more than 2 million in assets.  A billionaire might be taxed at 5% of their net worth...which would bring in 50 million in taxes.  Those types of ideas are being discussed already.  Those type of ideas dramatically change the landscape.  Does it save us?  Not sure...maybe?  But, it would kick the can down the road.

All in, points are that innovation and adaptation give us time.  I am not saying that this current economic shock will not go ballistic this week (feels to me actually that it might).  I am not saying oil and food will not have serious impacts this year....they might.  I am just saying you are dead on in thinking the time lines are uncertain, and that small changes could lead to major changes in timeline.

Best to be fully prepared now....and if you have extra funds then play more aggressively with timing. 

Member who post a lot....like Davos - I hope you will start realizing many of my posts question what are likely this communities strongest beliefs with ideas that I hope will lead us to become more educated and keep us as close as possible to an accurate perception of what is going on.  None of my posts express opinions that I am unwilling to change.  I am trying to learn, and if I have information that might weaken someone elses arguement then I will toss it out.  It doesnt mean I dont think CM is right  or wrong - its all designed to see if we can get more proof....or information to back our thoughts and timelines.

All the best....

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Login or Register to post comments