How much has GDP really fallen?

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Subprime JD's picture
Subprime JD
Status: Platinum Member (Offline)
Joined: Feb 17 2009
Posts: 562
How much has GDP really fallen?

Some data from 1st qtr 08 to 1st qtr 09

Car sales

2008

Jan  15.2

Feb  15.1

March 15.1   1ST QTR AVERAGE 15.13 MILLION ANNUALRATE

2009

Jan 9.6

Feb 9.1

March 9.8    1ST QTR AVERAGE 9.5 MILLION ANNUAL RATE

15.13- 9.5 = 5.63/ 15.15 = %37.21 DROP IN NEW AUTO SALES YOY.

Home sales

1st QTR 2008

Jan  New home sales  43,000  

Feb New home sales 47,000

March New home sales 50,000  total= 140,000

1ST QTR 2009

Jan   New home sales  22,000

Feb   New Home sales  28,000

March  New Home sales 30,000  total= 80,000   140-80= 60   60/140= 42% drop in new home sales

Existing home sales down 10% YOY from 1st qtr 08 to 1st QTR 09

Construction Spending

Residential

Jan 08 400 billion SAAR

Jan 09 290 billion SAAR

400-290= 110. 110/400= %27.5 drop YOY.

Imports/Exports

Exports

Jan 08 150 billion

Jan 09  125 billion  Exports down 16.6% YOY

Imports

Jan 08 $205 billion

Jan 09 $160 billion Imports down 21.9% YOY

So we have car sales, home sales new and existing, construction spending, imports and exports all down in the double digit range. And yet GDP only fell 5%??? I know this is regarding 1st qtr but it comes to show what a farce the government numbers are. I know government borrowed alot more in 1st qtr 09 then in tst qtr 08, but not in any way enough to offset the loss in the above data.

idoctor's picture
idoctor
Status: Diamond Member (Offline)
Joined: Oct 4 2008
Posts: 1731
Re: How much has GDP really fallen?

bearmarkettrader this is all the "old" style accounting LOL...you need to get your "new" math straight...LOL....this stuff isn't important anymore since it will be just swept under the White House Rug. Haven't you heard the recession is over.....blue skies are on the rise.

Just joking & nice post.

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