HOW might TSHTF?

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Ed Archer's picture
Ed Archer
Status: Martenson Brigade Member (Offline)
Joined: Oct 12 2008
Posts: 225
HOW might TSHTF?

Hi all,

Assuming, and lets hope we are all wrong, that it gets really bad. Lets say oil goes up to $200 a barrel and the oil feilds are drying up quickly. The American dollar collapses.

What I am interested is how people will think a collapse begin? I don't think everything will go to hell all over the world at once and perhaps never. But the thrid world will get hit harder than the west, to begin with anyway as they are more vulnerable to supply chain breakdowns.

Does anyone else have any thoughts on this?

Ed

mpelchat's picture
mpelchat
Status: Silver Member (Offline)
Joined: Sep 10 2008
Posts: 214
Re: HOW might TSHTF?

This is an interesting question and one that has been discussed in part in many threads.

I think it will truly start with one of the following actions happen:

1) Bank holiday for more than 3 weeks.  Most people I know only hold about 2 weeks of food in there house at any time.  If rationed this may increase to 3 or 4 weeks.  After that, people will be looking for food and hungry people do desperate things.  The scenario worsens if major utilities are lost during that time ((water, electric and/or gas)).  This scenario could lead to martial law.  Than states start leaving the union.  Where that goes, we do not know but it will not be pretty

2) Riots.  If we the people go beyond peaceful assembly.  This could very well enact Martial Law.  Than states start leaving the union.  Where that goes, we do not know but it will not be pretty.

3) Hyper-inflation.  If prices of base goods ans services increases 100% in a short period of time.  Currently basic items like beans, rice, canned veggies and the like are up 50% in a year or you get less for more and people are not too angry about it but we saw milk and bread go up 100% during the "crisis" and around here people where pissed.  All of a sudden, prices went back on those items. 

4) Airborne Flu.  Very unlikely but an airborne flu that actually starts killing the population at a fast rate.

5) Major food shortage.  This may work with #3) above, people not having access to all the food or types of food they want as well as not having enough for the needy.  People will be looking for food and hungry people do desperate things.  The scenario worsens if major utilities are lost during that time ((water, electric and/or gas)).  This scenario could lead to martial law.  Than states start leaving the union.  Where that goes, we do not know but it will not be pretty.

6) Loss of electricity over a wide spread area for a long period of time.  If we do not have electricity or not enough of it to keep us happy.  This would cripple the way we work and play.  As well as food storage would be an issue, travel and staying comfortable.

7) Collapse of your national currency.  We are back to #3) again.

Basically, any event that will change our way of living in a radical manor most of which ending in martial law. 

There may not be a trigger or event it may be a slow change that brings balance back to our world.  I am not so sure but preparation  and being self reliant is all I can do to be ready for tomorrow so that is what I will do.  Focus most of your energy there and you will not lose.

 

 

pleaseremoveme's picture
pleaseremoveme
Status: Silver Member (Offline)
Joined: Jan 24 2009
Posts: 115
Re: HOW might TSHTF?

TS is supposed THTF because of peak oil. Most likely start inside the US is an oil rationing program by the government.

edwin's picture
edwin
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Joined: Apr 21 2009
Posts: 5
Re: HOW might TSHTF?

I think TS will HTF rather slowly and without much upheaval. It could be years before most people understand what happened/happens.

We've seen 147 dollar oil without to many disturbances in everyday life. We've seen the biggest economies of the world deteriorate at the fastest pace in decades. We've seen a huge decline in almost every investment class. Fast growing numbers of unemployed people.

As long as people watch tv and absorb the spin of governments and the majority is not hit to hard, not much will happen.

This economic downturn now lasts for around 6 months (in the big media) and still most of my friends and collegues have no real interest in what's going on. Not even when it affects them directly (laid off, wage cuts). The general consensus still seems to be: it will be over soon and we can go back to where we've left of.

It might be so that by 2020 people look back and only then realise what has been going on. (probably wishful thinking)

Kind regards

Edwin

Ed Archer's picture
Ed Archer
Status: Martenson Brigade Member (Offline)
Joined: Oct 12 2008
Posts: 225
Re: HOW might TSHTF?

Thanks for your responses guys, I am starting to think that it has already begun in part and that things will become slowly worse without another major upswing. But them I'm a cynic and pessimist. :)

FireJack's picture
FireJack
Status: Silver Member (Offline)
Joined: Feb 8 2009
Posts: 156
Re: HOW might TSHTF?

I'm guessing that right now a lot of banks are on the edge and as things keep getting worse there might be sudden disturbances. When the alt-a option arm defaults start coming in I doubt the US government can take another 2 trillion in debt and when they are forced to stop giving these institutions money their going to fall fast and then it's over.

 

The only reason we haven't seen a TSHTF scenario is because the US government took all the debt of these institutions (they said it themselves even) but I think it's going to be too much. My prediction is that sometime in august/sept they are going to be forced to let a bank go, or Freddie Fannie, because they just can't lend them another 300 billion to keep them afloat. Things probably are going to unwind real fast then. There is also the pension, social assistance, and the rapidly dropping tax revenue. To me it looks like all they've done is built a dam that can't hold and it's all going to come out at once.

 

 

Nichoman's picture
Nichoman
Status: Gold Member (Offline)
Joined: Nov 1 2008
Posts: 422
Re: HOW might TSHTF?

Credibility.  When the public realizes our leaders and so called "experts" have mislead them...and/or conclude they are a major part of the problem.    That in history is a key compenent.  

 

Nichoman

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