Housing stats

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Subprime JD's picture
Subprime JD
Status: Platinum Member (Offline)
Joined: Feb 17 2009
Posts: 562
Housing stats

129 million housing units in US

75.3 million owner occupied

37.7 million renter occupied

Of the 75.3 million owner occupied homes, 51 million of them have mortgages.

Delinquentcy rate historical view

Housing demographics:

So we have demand for 1.9mil - 1.1 mill - 500k = 300,000 of inventory a year. Add in the foreclosures and we see how long a recovery will take. Considering 51 million mortgages with a 10% default rate we are looking at a potential of 5 million more units of supply. GREAT TIME TO BUY?? It depends on the market, lower end yes, upper to middle NO.

http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/the-comprehensive-state-of-the-u-s-housing-market-learning-to-love-the-housing-data-and-forgetting-the-economic-facts-everything-you-wanted-to-know-about-u-s-housing-trends/

 

Nichoman's picture
Nichoman
Status: Gold Member (Offline)
Joined: Nov 1 2008
Posts: 422
Re: Housing stats

Excellent Post and food for thought.

Thanks,

 

Nichoman

earthwise's picture
earthwise
Status: Platinum Member (Offline)
Joined: Aug 10 2009
Posts: 848
Re: Housing stats

Great post, really brings things into focus. Makes me wonder how high the foreclosure rate can go. If now at a 9+% foreclosure rate the banksters are hiding their shadow inventory and are slow to serve new NODs, what happens at 12% or 15%. Would that clog the foreclosure pipeline? What about 20%? Is there a "floor" on foreclosures? Now that the Government (Freddie/Fannie) owns most of the mortgages, can these crass politicians claim no responsibilty as the masses are thrown out into the street by the banks which are now in effect government agencies? At what point do the PTB feel the heat from the torches and the points of the pitchforks?

docmims's picture
docmims
Status: Platinum Member (Offline)
Joined: Jun 17 2009
Posts: 644
Re: Housing stats

I really don't think the courts can move fast enough to process this many forclosures, if they are contested.

Subprime JD's picture
Subprime JD
Status: Platinum Member (Offline)
Joined: Feb 17 2009
Posts: 562
Re: Housing stats

The determining factor with regards to foreclosures will be unemployment. And as we CM bloggers know all to well, the official stats leave ALOT of people out of the numbers. So if we factor in all the small business owners that went bankrupt in ADDITION to the U-6 measure we can see the default numbers potentially hitting as high as 12-15%. 15% of 51 million is 7.6 million new supply. Take into account all the boomers that want to sell in the next 10 yrs, plus the social security payments getting cut, plus pension payments getting cut, the supply is going to be there for a loooong time.

Subprime JD's picture
Subprime JD
Status: Platinum Member (Offline)
Joined: Feb 17 2009
Posts: 562
Re: Housing stats

The determining factor with regards to foreclosures will be unemployment. And as we CM bloggers know all to well, the official stats leave ALOT of people out of the numbers. So if we factor in all the small business owners that went bankrupt in ADDITION to the U-6 measure we can see the default numbers potentially hitting as high as 12-15%. 15% of 51 million is 7.6 million new supply. Take into account all the boomers that want to sell in the next 10 yrs, plus the social security payments getting cut, plus pension payments getting cut, the supply is going to be there for a loooong time.

Subprime JD's picture
Subprime JD
Status: Platinum Member (Offline)
Joined: Feb 17 2009
Posts: 562
Re: Housing stats

The determining factor with regards to foreclosures will be unemployment. And as we CM bloggers know all to well, the official stats leave ALOT of people out of the numbers. So if we factor in all the small business owners that went bankrupt in ADDITION to the U-6 measure we can see the default numbers potentially hitting as high as 12-15%. 15% of 51 million is 7.6 million new supply. Take into account all the boomers that want to sell in the next 10 yrs, plus the social security payments getting cut, plus pension payments getting cut, the supply is going to be there for a loooong time.

earthwise's picture
earthwise
Status: Platinum Member (Offline)
Joined: Aug 10 2009
Posts: 848
Re: Housing stats

 

bearmarkettrader writes:

 

The determining factor with regards to foreclosures will be unemployment. And as we CM bloggers know all to well, the official stats leave ALOT of people out of the numbers. So if we factor in all the small business owners that went bankrupt in ADDITION to the U-6 measure we can see the default numbers potentially hitting as high as 12-15%. 15% of 51 million is 7.6 million new supply.

Does anybody else think that might just start to wake people up as to what's being done to our economy? Here at CM.com there are threads about ending the FED, about people in your life who don't heed the warnings, about running Dr. M for Senate, and a myriad of other topics that all touch upon the apathy in society as to what's happening. How many people must be thrown out of a job and/or out of their house before there is a tipping point?

Ooo,... uh excuse me. EmbarassedDid I just write that? Sorry I got carried away. EmbarassedPardon me while I get down off my soapbox.

 

docmims's picture
docmims
Status: Platinum Member (Offline)
Joined: Jun 17 2009
Posts: 644
Re: Housing stats

2010 midterm elections is probably the last chance, but I am not optomistic.  The US monetary system has collapsed 4 times in history.  We will survive this collapse also, but life will suck for a while.

Ed Archer's picture
Ed Archer
Status: Martenson Brigade Member (Offline)
Joined: Oct 12 2008
Posts: 225
Re: Housing stats

Yeah you'll probably survive the the possible collapse of the financial system, its the social chaos that worries me and what people might do to try and take advantage of it.

Besides, why buy now? Wait a while and I'm sure the number of ones available free for the taking will skyrocket.

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