Golds direction?

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investorzzo's picture
investorzzo
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Golds direction?

Why is it important. The trend continues.

The sales are part of plans adopted last year to diversify the fund's sources of income and to increase low-cost lending to poor countries by up to $17 billion through 2014. The IMF fund has already sold 212 tons of gold to the Reserve Bank of India, the Bank of Mauritius and the central bank of Sri Lanka, all in November last year.

Gold Stalling, Carl Swenlin gives his chart view.

http://financialsense.com/contributors/carl-swenlin/gold-stallion

Another analysis

http://financialsense.com/contributors/chris-vermeulen/precious-metals-e...

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Doug
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Re: Golds direction?
investorzzo wrote:

Why is it important. The trend continues.

The sales are part of plans adopted last year to diversify the fund's sources of income and to increase low-cost lending to poor countries by up to $17 billion through 2014. The IMF fund has already sold 212 tons of gold to the Reserve Bank of India, the Bank of Mauritius and the central bank of Sri Lanka, all in November last year.

Gold Stalling, Carl Swenlin gives his chart view.

http://financialsense.com/contributors/carl-swenlin/gold-stallion

Another analysis

http://financialsense.com/contributors/chris-vermeulen/precious-metals-e...

Thanks Investorzzo, these tend to confirm my gut feeling.  I wonder how far down down will be.  $1,000 support appears to be a limit, but recently the predicted downs have not been reached before gold heads higher again.

I also wonder whether silver will act like a precious metal or commodity.

Doug

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investorzzo
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Re: Golds direction?

Some conversation on Gold/Silver. Shaking out the weak hands.

Sell Gold, buy silver?

http://www.kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast_Gold+/Entries/2010/...

http://treo.typepad.com/got_gold_report/

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agitating prop
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Re: Golds direction?

The IMF regularly scares individuals into selling gold with tales they're going to dump a quadrillion tons into the market. It's a big scary  "Boo" from the tricksters at the fund, and it's nowhere near Halloween! The international central banks seem to hoover up every oz of gold now, so I wouldn't worry too much about it. I wouldn't be surprised if Bernanke is backing up his truck in anxious anticipation of the event, as we type.

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Doug
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Re: Golds direction?
investorzzo wrote:

Sell Gold, buy silver?

I'm not selling either at this point, but I just sold my platinum and palladium, and want to put that money into au and ag.  Currently, money wise, I am approximately balanced between the two.  I'm tempted to put more into ag as it seems to have the biggest upside potential.

Doug

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investorzzo
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Re: Golds direction?
Doug wrote:
investorzzo wrote:

Sell Gold, buy silver?

I'm not selling either at this point, but I just sold my platinum and palladium, and want to put that money into au and ag.  Currently, money wise, I am approximately balanced between the two.  I'm tempted to put more into ag as it seems to have the biggest upside potential.

Doug

 I won't be selling either, why take the tax hit and risk trying to get back in. The most money is always made in a bull market by just sitting tight and enjoying the ride. Buy more on the dips. Jon

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yobob1
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Re: Golds direction?
investorzzo wrote:
Doug wrote:
investorzzo wrote:

Sell Gold, buy silver?

I'm not selling either at this point, but I just sold my platinum and palladium, and want to put that money into au and ag.  Currently, money wise, I am approximately balanced between the two.  I'm tempted to put more into ag as it seems to have the biggest upside potential.

Doug

 I won't be selling either, why take the tax hit and risk trying to get back in. The most money is always made in a bull market by just sitting tight and enjoying the ride. Buy more on the dips. Jon

It all depends on what you bought at.  The guy who bought silver at $4.25 and gold at $254 could have a different view than the guy who bought gold at $800 and silver at $12.  The guy who bought early should take some money off the table - say enough to cover the tax hit and recoup his total initial investment.  That would leave him a good majority of the metal left - all basically at a zero $ cost basis. 

So there - free lunch really does exist. Laughing

I still worry about all that so easy to hit the sell button metal sitting in the ETFs.  Of course now new and improved with extra margin. 

investorzzo's picture
investorzzo
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Re: Golds direction?

David Morgan, the second speaker in this interview says new silver buyer in the market. This is the second time I have heard this. Also, JPMorgan is off the short end. Premiums for silver are at a high. And not just for silver eagles.

http://www.financialsensenewshour.com/broadcast/fsn2010-0911-3.mp3

investorzzo's picture
investorzzo
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Re: Golds direction?

JPMorgan still at it, you decide?

Well, one of the first things I looked at after my computer was up and running yesterday morning was the September Bank Participation Report for positions held at the end of trading on Tuesday, September 7th.  Even without looking back to the August numbers, I could tell that there was big deterioration in both silver and gold.

In a nutshell... here it is for silver.  '3 or less' U.S. bullion banks increased their net short position in Comex silver by 5,637 contracts from the August report to the September report.  Without doubt, JPMorgan was the culprit.  The '8 or more' Non U.S. banks that hold Comex silver contracts were exactly market neutral... holding the same number of longs as shorts.  However, this is a deterioration from the August report... as that report showed that foreign banks were net long 1,015 Comex contracts.

In gold, four U.S. banks were net short 109,826 Comex contracts in the September report.  This is an increase in net short position of around 11,400 Comex contracts since the August report.  The thirteen Non U.S. banks were net short 20,586 Comex contracts.  This is also a big deterioration since the August report... as the August report showed that these same 13 Non U.S. banks were only net short 9,317 Comex contracts.

From the August report to the September report, these bullion banks [U.S. and foreign] have increased their total net Comex short positions by 6,652 contracts in silver and 29,903 contracts in gold.

And, without a doubt, a lot of the short position increase by the U.S. bullion banks was put on by JPMorgan.  This especially applies to silver where, without doubt, they put on the lion's share of the 5,637 Comex short position increase that was reported by the '3 or less' U.S. bullion banks.

In a report to private clients yesterday, Ted Butler had this to say... "Here's why I think JPMorgan shorted more, putting its head back into the lion's mouth, after closing out a bunch of silver short positions.  I don't think they thought they had any other choice.  On August 24th, the price of silver was around $18 the ounce.  Over the next couple of days it jumped sharply to $19... and then continued to move up from there.  The technical funds were buying aggressively and the Commercials [as a group] sold to them.  Without JPMorgan's additional 5,000 or 6,000 or more short contracts, the Commercials stood a good chance of being over run to the upside.  I'm sure JPMorgan was afraid of this and helped out their collusive commercial brother crooks.  I'm also sure that without JPMorgan's pile-on, the price of silver would have exploded upward."  If you wish to read more about this, you can check out Ted's subscription service here.

http://harveyorgan.blogspot.com/

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yobob1
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Posts: 132
Re: Golds direction?

The iShares Silver Trust /quotes/comstock/13*!slv/quotes/nls/slv (SLV 19.48, +0.06, +0.31%) , with assets of about $6 billion, recently broke through $19 a share and its year-to-date high. In afternoon trading Friday, the silver ETF was up 8.4% for the trailing month compared with a 3.5% gain for the roughly $50 billion SPDR Gold Shares

........"Silver ETFs are having an impact on silver prices," Raw said.

But these ETFs could be a double-edged sword in a correction.

"Physically backed metals ETFs are a source of demand in the marketplace now," she noted. "They could become a source of supply in the future."

Through the end of August, SPDR Gold Shares enjoyed the second-largest net inflow among ETFs for 2010, raking in $6.7 billion. Last year, more than $10 billion moved in the door, according to data from the National Stock Exchange.

Waverly Advisors in a Sept. 3 strategy note advised caution if gold prices rise to new highs and later show signs of weakness.

"There will be many trapped bulls, and with the public increasingly involved in this market through ETFs such as SPDR Gold Shares, there could be a dramatic stampede for the exits," the investment firm said..........

From the iShares Silver Trust prospectus: "Under current law, gains recognized by individuals from the sale of 'collectibles,' including silver, held for more than one year are taxed at a maximum rate of 28%, rather than the current 15% rate applicable to most other long-term capital gains."

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/silver-etf-rallies-to-close-near-record...

300 million ounces of silver and 1,300 + tons all at the beck and call of the sell button. I personally consider the ETFs as the "weakest" of all hands holding "physical".

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