Gold, Silver, the CFTC and conspiracy therories

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Gold, Silver, the CFTC and conspiracy therories

Not being much of a conspiracy theorist, last week’s hearing by the CFTC (Commodities Futures Trading Commission) on futures market trading for metals was a subject of some interest to me, but the news flow since that time has been rather remarkable – if for no other reason that none of the news seems to be flowing in the mainstream media.
In fact, a search at the Wall Street Journal on “Gensler” (CFTC Chairman Gary Gensler would surely be included in any report) produces only this one item from before the hearing.

You’d think that, if a news organization that normally finds time to report on the most arcane of financial market goings-on saw fit to publish a story before the hearing was held, they’d also figure it was worthwhile to let their readers know what happened at the hearing.
Apparently not.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/196794-gold-silver-the-cftc-and-conspira...

 

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Re: Gold, Silver, the CFTC and conspiracy therories

 

The silence is absolutely deafening... in fact it's speaking volumes. "The shot that wasn't heard around the world.. "

No comment from JPM ..  No denials.. ?

 

 

 I'm a total nOOb when it comes to trading, but.. I have a simple observation...

 Imagine trying to shop for a kilo of carrots in a marketplace, you see plenty of stalls saying carrots  20c, 21c ,24c, .. after a while you choose the cheapest, only to realise he has no actual carrots. he simply takes bets on their price, nor have most of the other stalls..

 finally you find a stall that does.. and to stay "competitive" he's also selling them at the "market rate" 20c..

 To me it sounds an awful lot like a "false market" a huge tail wagging a tiny dog.. a farmer with an actual product competing with.. bookmakers.. to gain the attention of some genuine buyers, and lots of gamblers.. 

 Why are real contracts to deliver mixed with (and outnumbered by) simple bets on price ? Why not have completely separate contractual delivery markets, and pure leveraged gambling markets.. ? A  "Glass Steagal" act for futures ?

 If you want to buy or sell future deliveries of carrots, go to a farmers market, if you want to bet on the future price of carrots, go to a bookmaker. (after visiting the farmers market to check the action perhaps..)

 

  If an estate agents was filled with fictitious homes at huge prices, or very depressed ones... , what would it do to apparent house values in your area ? To expectations of buyers, and sellers..

 When is a market not a market. ?

 When is a cheese shop not a cheese shop.. ? When it's a bucket shop.

 http://fofoa.blogspot.com/2010/03/sprott-attempts-gold-buy-video.html

 

 IMHO the current futures markets are intrinsically fraudulent... especially the PM markets..

 the emperor has no cheese.

 or.. All hat no cattle as they say in Texas..

 

 

 

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Re: Gold, Silver, the CFTC and conspiracy therories

 

 And now a clip from a film that has haunted me for ten years... (caution - language rated 18+)

 

 The separation of money and state.

 The separation of commerce from speculation.

 The separation of deposit banking and investment (interest bearing)  banking.. (credit is an investment, trusting repayments is a gamble..).

 The separation of principal and interest.. (compound interest aka usury is right out.)

 The separation of lies and truth...

 

 all the above are (IMO) bad marriages...

 and after the separations.. the marriages can begin...

 truth with beauty with man with nature  with infinity...

 All truth is supportive.. connected.. all lies are competitive until they destroy each other.. maybe goldman is doing God's work.. and helping destroy JPM.. and vice versa..

 (uhoh.. homebrew post.. better stop now..)

 

 

 

 

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Re: Gold, Silver, the CFTC and conspiracy therories

back to sensible mode....

 

 Mike Maloney on PM's esp silver.. huge stuff monetary wise.. small stuff reality wise.. take everything with a pinch of salt... and humour...

 don't go "all in" on anything unless you're certain.. 10% will do fine.. me I like seeds, truth and silver.. YMMV.

 

 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a9-bOinwh9Y

 Well, I dreamed I saw the knights in armor coming
Sayin' something about a queen
There were peasants singin' and drummers drumming
And the archer split the tree
There was a fanfare blowin' to the sun
That floated on the breeze
Look at mother nature on the run in the nineteen seventies
Look at mother nature on the run in the nineteen seventies

I was lyin' in a burned out basement
With a full moon in my eyes
I was hopin' for a replacement
When the sun burst through the skies
There was a band playin' in my head
And I felt like getting high
Thinkin' about what a friend had said,
I was hopin' it was a lie
Thinkin' about what a friend had said,
I was hopin' it was a lie

Well, I dreamed I saw the silver spaceships flying
In the yellow haze of the sun
There were children crying and colors flying
All around the chosen ones
All in a dream, all in a dream
The loading had begun
Flyin' mother nature's silver seed
To a new home in the sun
Flyin' mother nature's silver seed
To a new home in the sun

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Re: Gold, Silver, the CFTC and conspiracy therories

don't go "all in" on anything unless you're certain..

woops.. (oh well its only silver)

ppplato i found the vid excellent.. Sort of confirms my own sense of anticipation that's been building for me since June 09..

Seen Mike Maloney on vid before.. He actually states he is 100% invested (was a vid with the Japanese guy on it).. Sounds like he is certain then.. He sort of made the case of what other asset groups are there that cant be taxed to death or potentially deflated... ? Good point i suppose.. One asset group comes to mind.. Tinned food???

I went for a ride today.. Got a motorcross bike.. Was thinking as i daydreamed through the mountains.. This Silver story is going to break.. We can all feel the excitement building.. So i said to myself.. Which MSM outlet is going to let the cat out of the bag first?? Because the more pieces of the puzzle that come together the harder it will be to NOT join the dots and report (cause thats their job damn it).. And when the floodgates burst it will be huge! Like the vid said when the public join the bull market inc Russia China Asia in general its gonna go mental.. (apologies if ur a mental)

WSJ is crap.

West

 

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Re: Gold, Silver, the CFTC and conspiracy therories

dated April 2nd. I realize the majority of this is in another language, but when Marc Faber speaks it's in english. I am posting this for the simple reason he talks about metals and what may happen if you don't have it in your hand.

http://marcfaber.tk/

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Re: Gold, Silver, the CFTC and conspiracy therories
plato1965 wrote:

The silence is absolutely deafening... in fact it's speaking volumes. "The shot that wasn't heard around the world.. "

I've found one report in the financial media, the Financial Times of London, but even that report is muted by no mention of Andrew Mcguire.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/0228bb5a-3865-11df-aabd-00144feabdc0.html

 

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Re: Gold, Silver, the CFTC and conspiracy therories

The biggest short sqeeze in the history of commodities (My girfriend believes there is no other kind).. Nothing new but this publication made reference to the MSM blackout.. Based on the info in this thread the claim of a naked short may be a point of contention.. However none the less the outcome is manipulative..

What Mr. Christian fails to realize is, most investors around the world holding paper gold/silver believe they own physical gold/silver. There will come a time when these investors don't want cash settlements in U.S. dollars, but they will want the physical precious metals themselves. When investors around the globe eventually call for physical delivery of their precious metals, NIA believes it will result in the biggest short squeeze in the history of all commodities.

The physical silver market is now more tight than ever before. In the first quarter of 2010, the U.S. mint sold 9,023,500 American Silver Eagles, the most since the coin debuted in 1986 and up from 8,299,000 sold in the fourth quarter of 2009. All U.S. silver mines combined are currently producing only 40 million ounces of silver annually. This means the U.S. needs to use almost all of its silver production just to keep up with the demand for American Silver Eagle coins.

Silver closed this week at a 10-week high of $17.89 per ounce and a major short squeeze to the upside could be imminent. With the spotlight now on JP Morgan, NIA believes they will be less likely to naked short silver at these levels and manipulate the price down like in February. With the mainstream media blackout, it is important for NIA members to work harder than ever to spread the word and help expose what could be the largest fraud in the history of the world

http://www.thestreet.com/story/10717313/1/silver-short-squeeze-could-be-imminent.html

Cool

West

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Re: Gold, Silver, the CFTC and conspiracy therories

Or maybe they were smoking something else??? CFTC basement caught on fire.. Oh no we may have lost all our documents.. Oh no all this paper and computers got wet.. Sorry bout that.. This is an excerpt wmarsden posted in the DD today.. Relavant for this thread also..

Maguire added: “What’s going to happen, if you’re an Asian trader, or a non-Western trader, who has no loyalty, or doesn’t care about homeland security or anything else, who says, now wait a minute, if I can establish in my mind that there is 100 ounces of paper gold, paper silver for example, for each ounce of real silver, than I have a naked short situation here that I can squeeze and they can go on the spot market which is basically a foreign exchange transaction, short dollar, long silver to any amount they want – billions, trillions — whatever they want, and they can take this market, squeeze this market, and blow it up…”

In other words, the problem isn’t just that criminal naked short sellers manipulate the metals market downwards. It is that they have created a condition where a foreign entity can merely demand delivery of real metal to induce a massive “squeeze” that sends the price of metals skyrocketing, putting huge downward pressure on the dollar. Meanwhile, says Maguire, with prices rising, “for 100 customers who show up there is only one guy who is going to get his gold or silver and there’s 99 who will be disappointed, so without any new money coming into the market, just asking for that gold and silver will create a default.”

“There are no prisoners taken in this kind of environment,” Maguire added. “All they need to establish is that it is naked, and by the admission of [former Goldman staffer] Christian at the meeting…we have a definition of physical actually being paper…They get that in their heads and its locked, it’s a done deal, then we don’t have to wait…there is a profit to be made here, and there is nothing [anybody] can do about it because it’s a foreign exchange transaction, and there are no limits on a foreign exchange transaction, and obviously foreign exchange transactions are coming to light, there [is talk] of manipulation…”

Indeed, Maguire says that he has received phone calls from wealthy individuals in Asia looking for the go ahead to exploit the naked short position. “The only question they have in their mind is can we establish that this is a naked short position, that’s the only thing they had to clarify, it’s become clear, it is now clear [that the naked short position is massive], and no doubt they do their own due diligence, but basically [the naked short position] has been admitted at the only metals meeting [the CFTC hearing] that we’ve ever had…”

Maguire says that the naked short selling scam is in the trillions of dollars, making it by far the biggest financial fraud in history. He calls it “financial terrorism” and accuses the naked short sellers of “treason” for putting national security at risk. It might be hard to believe that foreign entities are plotting to crush the U.S. economy, and perhaps they are not, but there is no doubt that loopholes in the clearing and settlement system – not just for metals, but also stocks, bonds, Treasuries, and derivatives – could quite easily be exploited by any foreign entity desiring to do harm to the U.S. economy. The only dispute is whether such a desire exists.

Maguire and Adrian Douglas of GATA, an organization that lobbies against manipulation of the metals market, took their concerns to the mainstream media and had a number interviews scheduled. However, every one of those interviews were suddenly cancelled. This is not surprising. The mainstream media has consistently shied away from stories about illegal naked short selling and market manipulation, partly because the media outlets are captured by the powers that be on Wall Street, and partly because investigative journalism is now viewed as an anachronism – a time-consuming effort that might have been suited to Woodward and Bernstein back in the 70s, but not to the downsized news rooms tasked with churning out tepid and meaningless “he said, she said” mimeographs for a population of readers who (so it is said) want their “news” fast, and don’t care a whit for in-depth reporting.

Meanwhile, just as the stock manipulators have engaged in a coordinated effort – deploying threats, ruthless smear campaigns, and slick lobbying – to keep their crimes out of the spotlight, so too will the gold and silver manipulators. Adrian Douglas of GATA notes that at the precise moment that his GATA colleague Bill Murphy began to speak at the CFTC meeting, the video camera recording the event experienced “technical problems” – problems that were fixed at the precise moment when Murphy stopped talking. Douglas concedes that this might have been a coincidence, but when this sort of thing happens often enough, a little healthy paranoia is probably a good thing. That said, everyone loves an optimist, so I’ll say the camera really went kaput.

But…ack…another coincidence: The day after Maguire gave his radio interview, he was the victim of a hit and run collision. Somebody sped out of a side alley at top speed, smashed into Maguire’s car, and then tried to escape. A high-speed chase ensued, and the perpetrator was caught by police. The British press has reported that this might have been an assassination attempt, or a threat, but as yet there has been no word from the police. Maguire was injured, but not seriously. Let’s be optimistic, and say this was an accident – assassinations and threats only happen in the movies.

But…ack…another coincidence: Shortly before somebody crashed into Maguire’s car, the CFTC caught on fire. This fire happened to be located in the one small basement room where gold and silver trading data and other pertinent documents were kept. The CFTC claims that its investigation of metals manipulation, for what it was, did not burn.  So maybe it was just an accident. Maybe some eager CFTC regulators were down there smoking cigarettes. Maybe it was stress. Maybe they’ll keep investigating. Maybe they’ll bust the criminals.

Maybe, just maybe…yes, everyone loves an optimist, so let me make this clear – the horror show that is our regulatory system is going to have a happy ending. There will be no massacre. The financial system will be just fine…really…maybe… or maybe not

http://www.deepcapture.com/manipulating-gold-and-silver-a-criminal-naked-short-position-that-could-wreck-the-economy/

Still no MSM

West

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Re: Gold, Silver, the CFTC and conspiracy therories

This nonsense has escalated to the point that I feel inspired to write an article debunking all the nonsensical claims that are being made about "illegal naked shorts", 100:1, Jeff Christian taken out of context, "fraud", and all the rest of the hogwash circulating in the blogosphere. Perhaps I'll submit it to ZeroHedge and see if they run it.

Does anyone have the full transcripts of both the Maguire and GATA interviews from KWN? It would be much easier to debunk all this nonsense if I had it in written form.

I'll save my energy for the article rather than elaborating here, but as a teaser I'll share my tentative conclusion: I think Maguire knows exactly what he's doing, and I think he's playing GATA for the fools they truly are. I think Maguire's comments about rich asians supposedly calling him "waiting for the green light to squeeze the silver shorts" is actually a ploy by Maguire to find as many suckers as possible to entrust him to execute that trade for them. Think of it as the biggest pump & dump job in history, with Maguire as the perpetrator. If the mechanics of how and why this seems to be occurring aren't clear, stand by for my forthcoming article... If I can get my girlfriend to entertain our houseguests for a couple of days, that is... :-)

Erik

 

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Re: Gold, Silver, the CFTC and conspiracy therories
Erik T. wrote:

This nonsense has escalated to the point that I feel inspired to write an article debunking all the nonsensical claims that are being made about "illegal naked shorts", 100:1, Jeff Christian taken out of context, "fraud", and all the rest of the hogwash circulating in the blogosphere. Perhaps I'll submit it to ZeroHedge and see if they run it.

Does anyone have the full transcripts of both the Maguire and GATA interviews from KWN? It would be much easier to debunk all this nonsense if I had it in written form.

I'll save my energy for the article rather than elaborating here, but as a teaser I'll share my tentative conclusion: I think Maguire knows exactly what he's doing, and I think he's playing GATA for the fools they truly are. I think Maguire's comments about rich asians supposedly calling him "waiting for the green light to squeeze the silver shorts" is actually a ploy by Maguire to find as many suckers as possible to entrust him to execute that trade for them. Think of it as the biggest pump & dump job in history, with Maguire as the perpetrator. If the mechanics of how and why this seems to be occurring aren't clear, stand by for my forthcoming article... If I can get my girlfriend to entertain our houseguests for a couple of days, that is... :-)

Erik

 

I've thought about this as a possibility. A very cleverly hyped sucker's play. But, the one thing that doesn't jibe with this hypothesis is the testimony of Christian at the CFTC meeting. I watched the meetings several times. Perhaps you can demo how the 100:1 comment was taken out of context. I'm all ears. I try not to get "stuck" on certain theories, particularly when you can lose your hide if your theory is wrong. 

Look forward to reading it. 

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Re: Gold, Silver, the CFTC and conspiracy therories

HaHaHa Wow sounds like the idea of "conspiracy theories" has gotten hillarious.. I fear Alex Jones will want to try and steal this stuff..

I think Maguire knows exactly what he's doing, and I think he's playing GATA for the fools they truly are. I think Maguire's comments about rich asians supposedly calling him "waiting for the green light to squeeze the silver shorts" is actually a ploy by Maguire to find as many suckers as possible to entrust him to execute that trade for them. Think of it as the biggest pump & dump job in history, with Maguire as the perpetrator. If the mechanics of how and why this seems to be occurring aren't clear, stand by for my forthcoming article...

Fairdinkum Erik.. In your article apart from addressing the 100:1 comment, if Maguire is possibly now the bad guy dont you think to achieve the "biggest pump and dump job in history" you would want the MSM to break the story?? Just wondering .. Because a buying frenzy from the general public would be required.. (At least in terms of stocks thats how it works..) But how does it work for the physical silver market when there is a finite supply?? A very small supply whilst during that "buying frenzy" the physical supply may become scarce..(via the exchanges ie)... Because the thing that has changed since this story has emerged is the fact that from here on in its ALL ABOUT TAKING PHYSICAL DELIVERY... All of the PM commentary are saying it.. Sure they may not understand the futures market and get their defintions wrong and call a naked short illegal when its not.. etc.. But the fact remains that the outcome is manipulative.. And only legal because Gov/fed want it that way to protect the perceived value of their FIAT iou nothing currency..

West

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Re: Gold, Silver, the CFTC and conspiracy therories

West,

As I've already said several times, I do believe that a manipulation is being perpetrated by JPM. I'm just wondering whether another manipulation is being perpetrated in parallel. The spot market is "ALL ABOUT TAKING PHYSICAL DELIVERY", but the futures market isn't. That's the rub.

So does anyone know where to find the interview transcripts online? West, you seemed to be quoting them... Or perhaps you just typed that in from the audio?

Thanks,

Erik

 

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Re: Gold, Silver, the CFTC and conspiracy therories
Erik T. wrote:

West,

As I've already said several times, I do believe that a manipulation is being perpetrated by JPM. I'm just wondering whether another manipulation is being perpetrated in parallel. The spot market is "ALL ABOUT TAKING PHYSICAL DELIVERY", but the futures market isn't. That's the rub.

So does anyone know where to find the interview transcripts online? West, you seemed to be quoting them... Or perhaps you just typed that in from the audio?

Thanks,

Erik

 

Erik. To be fair most commodities eventually have an end-user and thus must be delivered. You don't trade copper-backed paper ad-infinitum without an eventual delivery. Or, more to the point, corn, wheat, pork beliies (they spoil. :) ). 

Perhaps that wording required more exactness, but in most cases commodities eventually find a home.

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Re: Gold, Silver, the CFTC and conspiracy therories

Sorry Erik, I'm with Morpheus and West on this one, and especially like West's comment, 'if it was another scam to get us all long into the market MSM would be all over it.'

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Re: Gold, Silver, the CFTC and conspiracy therories

Hi Erik those quotes were from the article that accompanied that post..I cant seem to find the full transcript but ill look out for it..

I think we are entering a phase in the metals market where a lot of information may be questionable.. There will be a spectrum of denial concerning silver ranging up to extreme cheerleading.. So obviously make sure your own research is credible and rational..

This next article falls into the category of cheerleading however there are some interesting points in regard to industrial applications of silver.. Iam including it here as the subject title is compatible to conspiracy theory.. But really funny who would have thought silver could become so entertaining.. I could just imagine someone like Max Keiser having some real fun with this... "Scandal" "Financial Terrorism" "Fraud" "JP Morgan is scum"..

Erik there may be some great ammunition here in terms of your debunking article also.. WARNING.. Do not read if you have better things to do.. Like eating chocolate or something..

http://news.silverseek.com/SilverSeek/1270405742.php

As an example, he says that the “Gold Award for Healthcare Fabrics” was recently given to a company that produced the first silver-impregnated upholstery for the healthcare industry, so that you, as the theoretical visitor to a hospital, can, for one thing, have a theoretically germ-free, infection-free, spore-free, mucus-free, mold-free, fungus-free, virus-free couch to lie down upon and rest your weary head, and not have to soon think about how something (sniff, sniff) smells funny, and you realize that your head is resting where other people have sat down on their nasty, germ-laden, sick butts or (I shudder to mention it) where they sat the butts of their sick, diapered babies.

This is, of course, separate from that whole issue about how people are standing around the waiting room with no place to sit while I am hogging the whole couch so that I can lie down and pick my toenails to pass the time until some quack doctor half my age gets around to testing me for the effects of mysterious rays being beamed into my brain, either from outer space or the CIA, which they ridicule, only proving that they are in on the conspiracy, as far as I am concerned.

I thought that a living testament to toenail care would be a valued instructional activity for the other patients in the waiting room, which I thought they would like better than me roaming the room, endlessly pacing, like a caged tiger, angrily telling the waiting room full of patients that “If you have a chance to die painlessly, do it now, because the Federal Reserve is creating So Freaking Much (SFM) money that you will not want to live through the suffering of a future where prices are so impossibly high that you cannot afford to eat, and you will die horribly while your children curse you for giving them birth, and spit on you, and steal your stuff and want to borrow money from you all the time, and even when they are grown up, they will want to come and live with you, and you will wail and wish, wish, wish that you had listened when I told you to buy gold, silver and oil to protect yourself against the raging inflation in consumer prices that necessarily must – must! – follow such massive inflation in the money supply. But you didn’t! You did not listen! Hahaha!

“So die now, or die later after a lot more suffering, as that is your choice, thanks to the irresponsibility and sheer idiocy of the Federal Reserve, and that thanks to being allowed to be that way by a corrupt, ignorant, and fiscally stupid Congress, made possible by the corrupt, traitorous Supreme Court in 1934 when they ruled that the dollar did not have to be made only of silver and gold like the Constitution of the United States says it must, and the dollar could be a mere fiat currency, a decision upheld by every Supreme Court ever since!”

I am not sure if it was the ugly reality of what I was saying, or perhaps a commentary on the hygienic qualities of my lesson in toenail care, or something else entirely, but for some reason Mr. Neilson says that he figures, as I figure, that “The potential usage in this one category of silver consumption is nothing short of mind-boggling”, which I can certainly corroborate as a guy who has spent an entire lifetime having his mind boggled by many things, including this mind-boggling increase in the use of silver, although nothing was quite so mind-boggling as when I eventually found out, as the newlywed husband, what “putting up with her crap every freaking day” really, really meant, and how few options I had if she just won’t shut up, shut up, shut up about me getting some kind of stupid job, or at least stop watching TV on the couch all day, or at least take a bath or shave once in awhile, or something, all the time something!

And then, after she got pregnant, it all got worse! So, you want mind-boggling? I’ll give you mind-boggling!

Well, as boggled as my mind was and is, I had enough non-boggled cranial neurons left to appreciate “The Case for Silver by Adrian Ash bullionvault.com, who corroborates all of this when he writes, “Excluding silver investing demand, London’s VM Group analysts now forecast an additional 350 million ounces of annual silver demand by 2020,” which is the result of increased use of RFID tags, ID cards, solar panels, wood preservatives, and “because silver, a biocide, inhibits bacteria”, there will be an increase of silver used in wound care, other medical uses, food hygiene, which is not to even mention the phenomenal growth in the aforementioned anti-odor/ anti-germ textiles!

Silver! I mean, it just doesn’t get easier to invest than that!

Too funny

West

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Re: Gold, Silver, the CFTC and conspiracy therories
John99 wrote:

Sorry Erik, I'm with Morpheus and West on this one, and especially like West's comment, 'if it was another scam to get us all long into the market MSM would be all over it.'

I disagree. The MSM wants all eyes off of the precious metals markets. There is manipulation going on they don't want it to see the light of day. 

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Re: Gold, Silver, the CFTC and conspiracy therories
Morpheus wrote:
John99 wrote:

Sorry Erik, I'm with Morpheus and West on this one, and especially like West's comment, 'if it was another scam to get us all long into the market MSM would be all over it.'

I disagree. The MSM wants all eyes off of the precious metals markets. There is manipulation going on they don't want it to see the light of day. 

Morpheus that was the original premise of this thread.. Eriks' post has now suggested that Maguire is setting up a pump and dump to doublecross wealthy Asians and put on this trade.. So the question remains.. What is the true agenda for MSM not reporting... ?

West

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Re: Gold, Silver, the CFTC and conspiracy therories
Morpheus wrote:

Erik. To be fair most commodities eventually have an end-user and thus must be delivered. You don't trade copper-backed paper ad-infinitum without an eventual delivery. Or, more to the point, corn, wheat, pork beliies (they spoil. :) ). 

Perhaps that wording required more exactness, but in most cases commodities eventually find a home.

Pete,

I have great respect for your wisdom on many subjects and always read your posts with a keen eye, often learning new insights from them. Phew - just had to get that on the table to assure we remain friends before I go on to point out that you're dead wrong and your statements are not only factually incorrect but also damaging in that they are adding to the confusion on this thread about how futures markets actually function.

For the record, you can so trade commodities including wheat, corn, copper and soybeans, without ever taking delivery, and I routinely do so personally. That is a regular and normal function of the futures market, and the problem with this whole story is that GATA appears to be confused about what the futures market is and how it works in exactly the same way that you are. But I'm not willing to believe that Maguire could possibly be so confused - based on his profession and level of experience as a metals trader, he simply has to know better.

I don't have statistics on how many copper contracts get delivered vs. how many are speculative - meaning they are derivative bets settled in cash without physical delivery. But I would guess the majority of the contracts traded are never delivered and are thus never really backed by any actual copper. It's ironic that you chose copper for your example because it's one of the most commonly traded contracts as the hedge component of a pair trade. In other words, a very common trade is long gold, short copper. The idea is that you know metals in general are going to go up and down with the economy, but you believe in the inflation hedge aspect of gold. So the short copper leg of the trade hedges out general market risk of everything going down with the economy, while the long gold component plays the upside of PMs in an inflationary environment. For that reason I'm pretty confident that most copper contracts traded are never delivered, but I don't have statistics at my disposal to say so decisively.

THIS IS HOW THE FUTURES MARKETS WORK, PEOPLE! It's not unique to precious metals. It's true in grains, base metals, and yes, even pork bellies. A lof of the contracts traded have nothing to do with anyone on either side of the trade buying or selling the physical commodity underlying the contract. This is not new, it's not a secret, and it's not a conspiracy. Its a perfectly natural aspect of a market that is used for multiple purposes, and which is popular with economic speculators.

If GATA wanted to say something intelligent about this, it would go like this: It's important for investors in "paper gold" derivative investments - particularly futures - to understand that there is not really enough physical gold to back all the contracts that are being traded. Many of the buyers are speculating on an upward price movement and never intend to take delivery of the metal, and similarly, many of the sellers are speculating on a downward price move, but don't actually have any metal to sell. These parties routinely close their contracts before they expire, settling any profit or loss in cash. In a normally functioning market there are enough sellers of real physical gold to satisfy the needs of all the buyers who choose to actually take delivery of physical gold. But if a sudden crisis were to arise where physical gold came into much higher demand, it is possible that there could be a shortage of sellers of physical metal, and the exchange would be forced to declare an emergency cash settlement. For that reason, gold buyers need to understand that when they buy "paper" derivatives such as futures contracts, there is always an element of counterparty risk. This is not in any way unique to the gold market but is also true of other futures contracts such as wheat and pork bellies.

Ok, I've gone on and on making the same points over and over again in this thread and the other one. I'm not going to continue. At some point, you either get it or you don't. Sadly, GATA appears firmly in the "don't get it" camp.

Erik

 

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Re: Gold, Silver, the CFTC and conspiracy therories

 

 A lof of the contracts traded have nothing to do with anyone on either side of the trade buying or selling the physical commodity underlying the contract. This is not new, it's not a secret, and it's not a conspiracy.

 

 Agreed... but I don't understand the need for genuine orders and bets on price to trade together (as if they were the same thing..), would you agree that it's possible to manipulate the price of the real market using the speculative part ? Or vice versa..

 I know you could argue that the bets give useful "information" ... but is the same sort of information as provided by a genuine buyer or seller ?

 I would say no...

 I think there's a qualitiative difference between a buyer or seller of real commodities and a buyer / seller of price movement bets..

 If merchants and customers are intermingled seamlessly with bookmakers and punters..at least until the time for delivery comes due, to me that seems a recipe for manipulation... especially if the speculative element forms the bulk of trading.

 You could either use delivery of $ to depress the price of the commodity (apparent glut), or manipulate the commodity itself (hoarding) to win the long bets.. 

 If I'm way off,  let me know.. I've never bought or sold a future in my life.. so I may have made myself look foolish.. no biggie.

 

 

 

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Erik T.
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Re: Gold, Silver, the CFTC and conspiracy therories
plato1965 wrote:

 A lof of the contracts traded have nothing to do with anyone on either side of the trade buying or selling the physical commodity underlying the contract. This is not new, it's not a secret, and it's not a conspiracy.

 Agreed... but I don't understand the need for genuine orders and bets on price to trade together (as if they were the same thing..)

That's an excellent point, plato. To understand the answer requires first breaking the issue down into the two separate questions of whether each component market really needs the other:

Does the speculative market really need to trade together with the physical delivery market?

Yes, it very definitely does. The reason is that if there is an option for physical delivery, the price of the speculative contracts stays tied to the physical commodity price. Suppose that wheat is trading for $5 a bushell in the physical delivery world. If the speculative trades were not in the same market system, a sleazy operator might manipulate the "paper market" up to $50 instead of the real price of $5. But so long as the speculative contracts are in the same system, if that ever happened (or started to), arbitrageurs (arbs for short) would show up and sell the paper contracts, and buy cheaper product on the spot market to deliver against them for a profit. So keeping the speculative and physical delivery trades in the same system is the only way to make sure the speculative system is grounded in the real-world price.

Of course that begs the second half of the question...

Does the phsyical market really need to trade together with the speculative market?

or put more strongly, Does having a speculative market at all even benefit the physical market?

This one goes more to opinion than undisputed fact. If you asked a hedge fund trader (speculator), he would tell you unconditionally that speculators play an essential role to price discovery, and that Farmer Jones benefits greatly from the presence of speculators in his marketplace.

The rationale goes something like this: Farmer Jones who grows wheat has a high school education and spends his days driving the tractor. He doesn't know much about trends in global finance and he lacks the sophistication to realistically gauge the factors that are likely to affect supply and demand on a global scale. So he's likely to just sell his wheat for "the going price", whatever that is. If certain factors in global commerce are about to come together to drive the price of wheat through the roof, Farmer Jones ought to be getting a higher price for his wheat, but he's not sophisticated enough to know that. So he would loose out of not for those friendly Wall Street guys being in the market helping out with "price discovery" to make sure Farmer Jones really gets all he deserves for his crop.

The subject of price discovery is pretty complex and there's more to it than this simple example, but that's the jist of it. And you can be certain that any Wall Street futures trader you might ever meet will assure you that speculators provide a critically important role in the marketplace that benefits buyers and sellers of physical stuff alike. But if you actually drive out to the farm and interview Farmer Jones, he's considerably less likely to agree that he's better off thanks to having Wall Street speculators in his marketplace!

plato1965 wrote:

would you agree that it's possible to manipulate the price of the real market using the speculative part ? Or vice versa..

 ...

If merchants and customers are intermingled seamlessly with bookmakers and punters..at least until the time for delivery comes due, to me that seems a recipe for manipulation... especially if the speculative element forms the bulk of trading.

 You could either use delivery of $ to depress the price of the commodity (apparent glut), or manipulate the commodity itself (hoarding) to win the long bets.. 

 If I'm way off,  let me know.. I've never bought or sold a future in my life.. so I may have made myself look foolish.. no biggie.

No, you're not way off at all. I'd say you're right on, in fact. I don't think it's even appropriate to use words like "possible". It absolutely is possible to manipulate the prices of real stuff by manipulating the futures markets, and I am convinced that it happens routinely. Many people believe that the run-up of crude oil to $147/bbl in 2008 was the result of excessive speculation by hedge funds, for example. Personally I think a the reality of peak oil had something to do with it too, but the point is that the big run-up in price and resultant adverse impace on the general economy could have been caused by massive hedge fund speculation in the market.

But it's important to recognize that you're right on about something that is well understood and that has been debated for decades. An entirely valid question to ask is, Would the world be better off if there were no speculation and the commodities markets consisted only of buyers and sellers of real stuff? That's an entirely valid question, but it's not a new question and its not a question that is in any way specific or unique to precious metals markets.

At first it might seem that getting the speculation out of the market would be a really good idea. But there are lots of legitimate counter-arguments that need to be considered, and I'm not equipped to list them all here. My point is that this is a question about how the commodity markets in general function, not about precious metals. All Jeff Christian's comments at the CFTC hearing really amounted to was to acknowledge that this is how futures markets function. It's not new information, and has been well known and understood by futures traders for decades.

One final comment intended for those prone to thinking that speculators and speculation are inherently evil... Let's go back to the run-up of crude oil to $147, and let's assume for sake of discussion that it happened entirely because of hedge funds speculating that peak oil would eventually cause prices to explode, and that they could profit by taking long positions in crude. (That's the usual anti-evil-speculator argument).

Now take a step back and really think about that. If it were true, I think it actually makes a pretty good case in favor of the value of speculators in the market. Our government and citizens are prone to the if it ain't broke don't fix it mentality, and have been categorically ignoring a growing mountain of evidence that peak oil is real for more than a decade. Left to their own devices, they would go on enjoying cheap oil and the lifestyle it affords right up to the day that the inevitable production decline forced the economy into a dramatic "sudden stop" situation. Speculators persauded by the peak oil evidence pushing the price up to the point that it had serious adverse affects on the general economy effectively provided an early warning function. The speculative price spike hit before the true production decline, serving as a wake up call to society and government that this issue of peak oil must be taken seriously. Whether government and society will take that wake up call to heart remains to be seen, but early signs suggest perhaps they finally are taking this seriously.

Erik

 

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Re: Gold, Silver, the CFTC and conspiracy therories

 

 A huge thank you for that detailed and informative response Eric!

 I was basing my hunch on something that happens in poker (where I am fairly experienced... )

 Collusion. A simple form would be where an accomplice stays in the hand when his friend has a sure fire winner.. driving up the betting, providing opportunities to sandwich the poor sucker in the middle. Signalling via a cough, or a shuffle of the feet... or some other "tell" ..

 - rather like Mr Maguire was doing thanks to the JPM traders boasts.. a mutually beneficial arrangement.. With the "tell" being a particular price signal in the asian market..

 The key point being that JPM aren't necessarily trying to make money in the metals market.. they're trying to muffle the "canary in the coalmine" or apply ice to the dollar/PM  "thermometer.."  presumably as service to the Fed / US Govt.

 

 

 

 

 

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Re: Gold, Silver, the CFTC and conspiracy therories

Erik. Sometimes one can be sufficiently brief so as to cause gross misinterpretation. Foot in mouth

Chock that up to laziness on my part. 

Let me clarify. First, at face value interpretation of my comments, I have no issue with your rebuttal. When a barrel of oil is pumped, it certainly can, and is traded 10,20, 30 times or more from one actor to another with net profits (and losses) along the way until hopefully price discovery is adequately found and fair market value is established. 

That much we hope for, correct? 

But unlike gold, oil must find a home. There is an intrinsic demand for energy and productivity depends on the expenditure, or use of that barrel. Gold not so much. Wheat even more so (people need food, it's intrinsic to a market economy). Therefore, I postulate that it is theoretically possible to trade the same LGD bar ad inifinitum without every having that bar park itself in delivery to a new home, where with essential commodities, particularly perishables, that's not only unpractical, but uneconomical. You cannot trade wheat forever without the bulk of that wheat falling out for usage. (amount entering the market = amount leaving the market, equilibrium so to speak) True, we are talking about fungible commodities here, so it doesn't have to be a certain bushel of wheat, ,but there MUST be eventual delivery of the goods or the market for such a commodity would crash. 

Can the argument be made for gold? I don't know about that. Where nearly 100% of the wheat or oil that circulates in a market is consumed, the same cannot be said of gold. Gold in general is not consumed. So, like wheat or oil, it too is "passed among investors", but comparatively only a small quantity requires delivery, right? And if that is the case, then the mechanics are such that it is ripe for manipulation. By it's essence, fractional reserve trading is very possible. 

I still don't see how you can do the same to oil or wheat without eventually getting busted for it when buyers demand the goods. I'm all ears. Please help me with this one. 

Sorry about the confusion. I see where you could easily misinterpret my comments, particularly with the brevity that I used to put them forth. 

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Re: Gold, Silver, the CFTC and conspiracy therories

Ohh. I think I just answered my own question Erik. 

If the amount of perishable commodity entering a market is approximately equal to the amount leaving, then the APPARENT supply of such a commodity in the exchange markets would be in a static equilibrium and the actual dynamic is steady state. The pool of tradeable commodity remains essentially constant. So in reality, it doesn't matter if it is consumed or not since these commodities are by nature fungible and interchangeable. 

That would, correct me if I am wrong, make the dynamics of the gold market (where steady state is determined by rarity of supply) not unlike that of a commodity in constant demand for usage, such as wheat or oil. 

OK. I now see your point. Just had to work through the steady-state abstraction. :)

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Re: Gold, Silver, the CFTC and conspiracy therories

You got it now, Morph...

The key to understand is that wheat, oil and gold are not traded in the futures markets. What are traded in the futures markets are wheat contracts, oil contracts, and gold contracts. There are always more contracts in a given commodity than there is underlying commodity. The excess represents the speculative (non-delivery) component of the market on both sides, both long and short.

Imbalances can and do occur between number of longs who want delivery and number of shorts who want to deliver. In anything beginning to approximate a "normal" market, these imbalances are resolved through the price mechanism. A shortage of sellers able to deliver will result in a price increase toward the first notice date, which will either entice more longs to cash-settle or will be arbitraged out of the system as more sellers (of real product) are attracted by the higher prices.

It is certainly possible for a deadlock scenario to occur, where there is a huge surplus of buyers over sellers of physical. In that case, there is still no default as the warehouse mechanism is designed to solve the problem. So using gold as an example, if there are more buyers demanding delivery than sellers able to deliver, the buyers get inventory from the COMEX warehouse, which is hopefully replenished the next month with a surplus of sellers over buyers.

It's possible for this mechanism to fail also. If everyone were suddenly convinced that the fiat money system were about to collapse on a global scale, there would be more longs demanding delivery than the sellers and the COMEX inventory combined could satisfy. That has never happened to my knowledge, but it certainly could. If it did the longs would get cash settlement (like it or not), and if they knew what they were doing, they knew that was a risk when they bought the contract to start with.

Again, all this has been understood (and the problem that for all commodities, there is a risk of failure to deliver has been recognized) for decades. Nothing is new here, and nothing is unique to Gold or Silver.

On the other hand, the part about Maguire proving he had real knowledge of JPM's manipulations by furnishing SEC with advance notice of exactly what would happen and when was rock solid evidence of manipulation. GATA is tooting their horn about the wrong issue.

Ok, I keep promising myself to get back to being a good host and away from this thread. Gotta run now.

Erik

 

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Re: Gold, Silver, the CFTC and conspiracy therories

I just can't believe this nonsense.

ZeroHedge should be deeply ashamed to be publishing ignorant drivel from this Ron Kirby idiot. His ignorance of the actual operation of the futures market is truly shocking: http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/tungsten%20genesis.pdf

Erik

 

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Re: Gold, Silver, the CFTC and conspiracy therories

Eric Janszen just wrote an excellent piece debunking the nonsense articles on ZH alleging that the recent HIRE bill included "Capital Controls". Since EJ seems to be in a debunking mood, I posted the following in hopes of inspiring him to similarly debunk this GATA nonsense. I'm afraid I just don't have time to write an article about the subject this week.

Erik

---

DefaultEJ, Please ALSO DEBUNK THE RECENT GOLD HYPE!

Excellent article - I've been shocked by how many people who should know better followed Tyler Durden's lead and mis-reported this interesting legislation as being somehow related to "capital controls".

EJ, while you're at it, please do another piece to debunk the utter nonsense circulating in the blogosphere since the Eric King interviews with Andrew Maguire and the incompetent bufoons from GATA.

I considered writing an article about this myself but have house guests for the next two weeks and really don't have time. With apologies for not having time to substantiate my arguments, here are the main points I would make if I were writing the piece:

  1. "Illegal naked short selling" is a phenomenon of the STOCK market, not the FUTURES market. Most contracts sold in the futures market are "naked" (seller doesn't own the underlying) and this is perfectly normal. It is the intended functioning of the market. There is nothing illegal going on, no conspiracy, and no fraud.
  2. Contrary to GATA's ludicrous allegations, Jeff Christian's testimony to CFTC was not an admission of anything. He merely stated several obvious, well known facts about the futures market. There is no fraud, no cover up, and no conspiracy revealed by his 100:1 comment.
  3. GATA's assertions about selling contracts without owning the underlying amounting to fraud or default are ludicrous and exhibit an extraordinary ignorance of how the market operates on the part of GATA principals. Contracts held past first notice date and THEN not delivered are a form of default, but that's not what's in question here. GATA is working for an entirely legitimate cause (ending the very real downward manipulation of silver and gold markets by JPM), but their leadership has demonstrated categorical incompetence beyond any doubt. GATA leadership should step down now and make room for competent people who actually understand commodities markets to take over and fight this very important cause.
  4. Andrew Maguire's motives should be scrutinized closely! The GATA people may just be ignorant, but someone with Maguire's experience in futures trading couldn't possibly be so incompetent as to have supported the statements made in the KWN interview. He says Rich asians are bugging him, waiting for the green light to squeeze the shorts in silver. I have to wonder whether he's actually trying to meet those rich asians for the first time to suck them into a massive pump & dump scheme. His boy scout whistleblower story is extremely compelling at first glance, but to anyone who actually trades futures for a living, a closer scrutiny quickly reveals that he's full of crap. The assasination thing is also highly suspect. JPM would only be adding credibility to his story by trying something so stupid. I have to wonder if he himself staged it as a way to generate media attention. His arguments sound great at first but just don't hold up to close scrutiny.
  5. Ron Kirby is a submoronic buffoon and wise investors will ignore 100% of everything he says or writes about any subject for the rest of eternity. His recent piece on ZH was an embarassment to ZH, and is full of factual inaccuracies. This guy just plain doesn't understand how futures markets function and prefers to flaunt his ignorance publicly rather than educate himself. It's shameful that he's getting so much coverage.
  6. The problem is not the "100:1" nonsense being trumped by the ignorant people at GATA. The real issue is the concentrated short and associated downside manipulation in silver. GATA has damning evidence in their posession but is trumping up the wrong issue because they are ignorant about how the futures market works. Their leadership should step down immediately! The organizations' cause is certainly legit but the individuals involved are retards. I predict their numerous idiotic statements in the KWN interview will be used to discredit them in a future public hearing.

Again, apologies for not substantiating these points - if I had time for that I'd write the article myself. Experienced futures traders should come to the same conclusions if you read the drivel Kirby just posted on ZH the other day. For those who don't understand the market well enough for this to be obvious, I hope EJ will write a piece debunking all this GATA/Maguire nonsense for the bunk it really is.

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DrKrbyLuv
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Re: Gold, Silver, the CFTC and conspiracy therories

The heavily hyped headlines and allegations seemed to be a "smoking gun" with an inside whistle-blower to boot.  The stories are growing and getting louder by the MSM silence.  But as I look over the info, there seems to be a lot more sizzle than steak.  More specifically, I have two questions that just don't square up with the allegations.

  1. Is 100:1 PM/contract ratio really a shocker?  It looks like the number of contracts that trade against physical oil, wheat, soybeans, etc., are also greater than the physical amount.  If it is common for this to occur, then is 100:1 ratio alone proof of any wrong doing?  Is there an historical precedent to refer to or ratio guidelines?
  2. No doubt JPM, GS and others are manipulating the PM and stock markets but is that illegal?  The "Plunge Protection Team" (actually it is the Working Group on Financial Markets) was created by Reagan's Executive Order to "enhance the integrity, efficiency, orderliness, and competitiveness of [United States] financial markets and maintaining investor confidence."

    The team implements it's policies through the all powerful New York Branch of the Federal Reserve; via it's owners/agents - the big Wall Street banks (JPM, GS, Chase, CitiGroup, HSBC, etc.).  It seems to me that this group exists to manipulate markets without breaking the law.

I'm not in favor of manipulating markets but instead of blaming the big banks, maybe we should be questioning the private Federal Reserve System as being a blatant conflict of interest that promotes monopoly capitalism (fascism).  The Fed is chartered to act independently and in secret.  I think this is the real problem and nothing short of ending the Fed will restore fair markets.  Our "free market" system is double-speak that allows those high in the money-power pyramid to freely manipulate for their own profit and power motives.

Larry

Tycer's picture
Tycer
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Re: Gold, Silver, the CFTC and conspiracy therories

In one short thread, I have gained unbelievable knowledge.

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SteveW
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Re: Gold, Silver, the CFTC and conspiracy therories
DrKrbyLuv wrote:
  1. Is 100:1 PM/contract ratio really a shocker?  

I was somewhat surprised that it is so large. If oil for example goes through 20-30 hands between the initial contract sale and delivery then that's a 3-5% rate of delivery compared to a 1% for gold.

One thing that McGuire said is that gold comprises a $5.4 trillion annual market. Annual gold production is under 2500 tons. Using these figures the futures market is about 50 times annual mine production. Of course all the gold ever mined still exists but the are considerable uncertainties regarding who controls these supplies.

DrKrbyLuv wrote:

 

  1. No doubt JPM, GS and others are manipulating the PM and stock markets but is that illegal? .

Larry

There is a historical precedent for silver manipulation. In the 1970's the Hunt brothers of Texas progressively bought and took delivery on large quantities of silver. As they cornered the market silver rose from $11 to $50 in late 1979. I remember it well as I suggested selling our wedding silver cutlery and my mother-in-law, who had provided the gift, was absolutely shocked. The CFTC then introduced position limits, silver collapsed and the Hunt's were bankrupted. Ultimately the CFTC imposed a fine and trading ban.

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DrKrbyLuv
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Re: Gold, Silver, the CFTC and conspiracy therories

SteveW - thanks for the great info.  I think Tycer summed up my thoughts better than I can:

Tycer wrote:

In one short thread, I have gained unbelievable knowledge.

Me too! 

Thanks Erik, Morpheus, plato1965 and others for sharing and refining your take on things...

Larry

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