G'day everyone - Question

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gbmitch's picture
gbmitch
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G'day everyone - Question

G'day Everyone

As my first post i feel in introducion is in order, My name is James Mitchell. I am a 23 yr Old Sailor in the Royal Australian Navy.

I am not new to how our econemy works and the effects of peak oil etc etc as i was quite interested in it in early 2009, since then the issue has been put onto the the back burner in my mind as i blissfully continued with my life largly because i was ridiculed at work when i tried to explain the situation to my work mates, making me second guess my own findings.

 I have only recently started researching it again and am now really quite worried about the future, as chris says in his videos series while being a tad terrified of the unknown i am also excited.

 

Now to my question...

actually before my question i should give a little background on my financial position.

I reside in Victoria, Australia. I have an investment property in Western Australia in which i owe $215k~ but besides that i have no debts. I own a $20k car which i owe nothing on and have about 30 - 40k in personal assets $3k of which is savings. I also earn about 65k a year in the Navy.

My partner is also like minded and while she dosnt have a full time job she works as a temp working 1 - 4 days a week @ $15 p/hr cash in hand.

 Now back to the question.

I want to be prepared even if nothing "hits the fan", my partner and i have been wanting a little farmlet to live of the land long before we even knew what Peak Oil was. I feel that we are in  a perfect position due to our liqiudity and lack of debt. My main issue i can see is the house back in W.A. i would like to know peoples thoughts (particularly Australians) on selling up and living on the land.

 I feel i can do this in 1 - 2 yrs by selling the house and putting the 50 - 60k profit  in gold and silver and Saving until we have enough for a block of land which i envision taking about a year with no debts. and in the next year look at placing a kit home and preparing etc etc.

Is this timeframe unachievable and what are peoples timeframes... mainly DO I HAVE ENOUGH TIME TO PREPARE. i can borrow but i would love to be debt free...

 

Thanks in advance

 

"Mitch"  

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guardia
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Re: G'day everyone - Question

Hello there and welcome!

Can't help you with the savings and everything. I am too young and since I could not pinpoint a good career until recently, I had decided to live on scholarships in academia (hopefully I will successfully manage my way out of this hole) to have much of anything saved... (well, at least I don't have any debts)

Anyway, there is one thing I can say. The only thing we can know for sure is that we don't know how much time we have to do whatever we need/want to do. As Chris said a few times on his posts here and there, the trick is all about dealing with the fact that we don't know when everything falls apart. It might be in two minutes (gold is making new records at this very moment, how appropriate), or it might be in ten years (or after, but probabilities go way down after ten years... peak oil and all the associated badness is sure to have arrived). In my case, the hardest part is psychological, but others surely have different experiences.

I hope that helps you a bit :)

Samuel

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TG
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Re: G'day everyone - Question

Hi Mitch

I live in Victoria Australia too. Laughing

You sound like you are in a pretty good situation financially. That means you can weigh up the pros and cons and pretty much do what you decide on. As for selling up and living off the land, personally I would starve, but if you are young enough and strong enough I say good for you. My aim is to get debt free as soon as I can. My family and I live in a suburb of Melbourne which is close to everything. And we have been here a long time so we know a lot of people and have friends and family nearby. I don't think you can put too much value on community. I'm new to this survival sort of thinking and I'm still learning. So far I have seen the importance of getting out of debt, making sure I have a really strong network of family and friends, being close to things if we can't afford petrol or if there is none. And I'm toying with the idea of buying "stuff" instead of saving money which could become worthless. Stuff that would help us get by if the "system" broke down.

It's great that people other than Americans are members of this site. By that I mean the bad times haven't really hit Aussies like they have our American friends and yet we are still listening to the message from people like Chris. And if people whose country hasn't been affected as badly financially as others can see the truth in what is being said then that shows that the message is very powerful and factual.

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gunbustrmitch
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Re: G'day everyone - Question
TG wrote:

 

It's great that people other than Americans are members of this site. By that I mean the bad times haven't really hit Aussies like they have our American friends and yet we are still listening to the message from people like Chris. And if people whose country hasn't been affected as badly financially as others can see the truth in what is being said then that shows that the message is very powerful and factual.

 

I also noticed this. Its hard to really relate to the things said on this site due to the simple fact i personally have never been in a recession or experienced a "sub - Prime" Meltdown. I would love to discuss some issue with you further. I have pmmed you

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Damnthematrix
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Re: G'day everyone - Question

Hi guys.... I must be the oldest aussie doomster here....! I'm in QLD, and am fortunate to be older than you Mitch, not something. I normally say I just realised!

I really feel for you youngsters, can't figure out how you'll ever own property while this idiotic system is still going... I'd say AUS has ~ 2 years to go before the proverbial hits the fan. Could be less though, if PIIGS bring down Eurozone, the US goes down too, and nothing can save AUS when that happens.

Sooooo.... While you're still making good money, I'd be tempted to ride the WA boom a little longer, pay off as much off that debt as you can, and sell out to max out your profit..... timing will be of the essence, and I don't have a crystal ball unfortunately... but I think the WA bubble will last a bit longer.... another year? Pure guess....

Re living off the land, can't recommend it enough, though I'd be inclined to stay away from VIC, I think Climate Change is doing really weird stuff down there. I'd recommend TAS or even NZ... IF the fan's still going 'round by the time some family matters are settled here for us in QLD, we'll seriously consider moving to Nelson NZ. Otherwise we're staying put.

Can't recommend you doing a PDC (permaculture) enough, and occasionally Geoff Lawton and Bill Mollison run really good ones in Melbourne, keep your eyes peeled...

Good luck...

Mike

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Davos
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Re: G'day everyone - Question

A plotted course into the worst economic hurricane ever simply equates to insurance and preparation. Insurance is always cheaper before the insurance companies realize you live in a hurricane zone. Preparation is easiest before everyone runs out to do the same.

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Re: G'day everyone - Question

Gerald Celente: Crash of 2010 inevitable

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gbmitch
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Re: G'day everyone - Question
Damnthematrix wrote:

Hi guys.... I must be the oldest aussie doomster here....! I'm in QLD, and am fortunate to be older than you Mitch, not something. I normally say I just realised!

I really feel for you youngsters, can't figure out how you'll ever own property while this idiotic system is still going... I'd say AUS has ~ 2 years to go before the proverbial hits the fan. Could be less though, if PIIGS bring down Eurozone, the US goes down too, and nothing can save AUS when that happens.

Sooooo.... While you're still making good money, I'd be tempted to ride the WA boom a little longer, pay off as much off that debt as you can, and sell out to max out your profit..... timing will be of the essence, and I don't have a crystal ball unfortunately... but I think the WA bubble will last a bit longer.... another year? Pure guess....

Re living off the land, can't recommend it enough, though I'd be inclined to stay away from VIC, I think Climate Change is doing really weird stuff down there. I'd recommend TAS or even NZ... IF the fan's still going 'round by the time some family matters are settled here for us in QLD, we'll seriously consider moving to Nelson NZ. Otherwise we're staying put.

Can't recommend you doing a PDC (permaculture) enough, and occasionally Geoff Lawton and Bill Mollison run really good ones in Melbourne, keep your eyes peeled...

Good luck...

Mike

Thanks everyone for the great replys,

You have to play with your cards your dealt. my youth happens to be a double edge sword unfortunetly. On the positive side like TG said, i am able to do alot of the labour myself and quite frankly im quite strong (6'2" 200 lbs) which could work in my favor if SHTF on the other side of the sword not only do i lack experience i also lack time to prepare. I am just lucky that unlike the majority of Gen Y have  saved and been "money Smart" instead of going out every weekend to nightclubs and bars (which is EXTREMELY hard not to do in the military)

I have been reading your blog mike and love what you are doing with your home and permiculture, i am envious and am almost tempted to buy the block next door to you if it wasn't so expensive lol.  i have also your recommendation and have been looking into doing a PDC course, there happens to be one running in dec in my area for $1k, is that a good price http://www.southerncrosspermaculture.com.au/pdc-courses/ tell me your thoughts on this.

I have been also looking at blocks of land in tassie, there are some very nice properties for some good prices. I just hope the Fan keeps turning just a yr or 2 longer but that is looking less and less likely.

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silvervarg
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Re: G'day everyone - Question

I have been thinking quite a bit about the coming problems and there is a few conclusions I have drawn.

All of this has been written down before the urgent economic problems in southern europe the last week.

Trying to get a living that is to a large extent sustainable is great. Reading up on other peoples experience I think it is bad to start of with a piece of bare land. I know many think differently, so here is why.
1. We don't know how far away it is until the SHTF.
2. Beeing in the middle of building everything up when the SHTF is the worst place you can be.
3. Building from bare land with an optimistic timeplan takes 7 years. The timeplan and everything is on this site from people how had done this full journey allready..

So, if this you are aiming for a sustainable home you should either have started many years ago or you should look for a shorter version. For instance if you buy something with buildings completed and "only" need to fix the farmland then you have saved many years of work.

I don't think 100% self reliance will work out well in the long run, so you will want:
1. a community that can help each other.
2. live in a country where there is a very good chance for some kind if civilisation to be sustained.

Here are some factors I think will be important for a country to be a good choice (in random order):
1.  Low corruption (says a lot about the state of mind of the population and the likelyhood of some kind of civilisation on a higher level to be sustained).
2. Small number of people compared to land suitable for farming and trees.
3. A currency that has a chance to survive (even though it is seriously hurt by a global economic crash). Low debt/GDP ratio is also good to help currency survive. This will at least help the transition period a lot.
4. Plenty of fresh water available.

A few major countries are looking pretty bad accordning to the points above, so here is a list of countries I would try to leave within the next year if I was a citizen in them:
China, India, Iceland, United Kingdome, Greece, Italy, Japan, United States

Here is a list of good countries to move to according to me with comments on the drawbacks of each country:
New Zealand: No big problems. Perhaps volcanic or earthquake prone area should be put here.
Sweden: Part of country has long and cold winters.
Norway: A bit high debt/GDP ratio. Most of country has long and cold winters. On positive side: Has oil resources in North Sea.
Finland: Has Euro as currency (can fall if euro region falls). Most of country has long and cold winters.
Denmark: Rather high population density (need to import a lot of food). Currency connected to Euro (last step before full convertion to Euro).
Canada: Quite high debt/GDP ratio. Lots of trade with US (sensitive to US problems). Most of country has long and cold winters.
Australia: Severe problems with environment, ozon holes and lack of rain. Lots of water restrictions.

I am sure the list is not complete, but its a start.
It would be interesting to get comments on these thoughts.

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JAG
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Re: G'day everyone - Question

If Australia follows the US path, the only thing to invest in is the "too big to fail banks".

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strabes
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Re: G'day everyone - Question
davos wrote:

A plotted course into the worst economic hurricane ever simply equates to insurance and preparation. Insurance is always cheaper before the insurance companies realize you live in a hurricane zone. Preparation is easiest before everyone runs out to do the same.

excellent way to put it.  that analogy might actually help me get through to some friends.  thanks dave

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ashvinp
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Re: G'day everyone - Question

I would recommend Steve Keen's blog www.debtdeflation.com/blogs for anyone who wants to keep an eye on Australia's economy, specifically the housing bubble that will inevitably pop. It's sad but funny how the officials over there are trying to blame high home prices on under supply rather than a massive debt bubble.

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gbmitch
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Re: G'day everyone - Question

Hey all,

Thanks again for all the great replies. Its funny how people’s grand plans can go by the wayside. I just found today my place in W.A is worth pretty much what I paid for it... sigh I wish I knew what I knew now say 5-6 yrs ago, I would have been one smart 17 yr old.

I think I agree with the comments that say I have left it too late to try and live off the land, I am an optimist though and feel I am lucky enough to have been willing and able to get debt free (Barr mortgage) in the short time I have had in the workforce.

So, where does that leave me? Well like I said I am still in a  good position financially compared to a lot of my peers and fellow GEN Y's, I really think selling my place back in W.A is still a good idea, but I don't know selling it for breakeven is a good idea. 

Do you all think it will be a mistake on selling on my gut feeling? I believe I am an reasonably intelligent kid and really feel like we cannot sustain the way of life my parents have enjoyed but when 99% of the people you talk to on this global economics(uneducated on the subject) feel that the housing boom will go on forever or say that "oil companies will just switch to something else when the oil runs out" its really hard to not double guess yourself.....     

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