Fuzzy Numbers

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ScottB's picture
ScottB
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Fuzzy Numbers

Chris, I believe your assertion about unemployment and discouraged workers is incorrect. When I researched this issue with BLS, I found the issue was that up through the early 1960s a small number of discouraged workers had been counted as unemployed (instead of "not in the labor force" and therefore not part of the unemployment measure) based on information they volunteered in the monthly household survey. The Gordon Commission recommended that a consistent approach be taken. The resulting change in the survey had no impact on the unemployment rate, so no backward revision was required.
Kevin Phillips appears to have assumed that all discouraged workers were being counted as unemployed before the new methodology was implemented. I think Phillips got his facts wrong here.
I don't know if you did any research to verify Phillips' assertions, or just accepted them wholesale. If you have not done the research, I invite you to contact BLS. If you have information that contradicts what I've writeen above, I'd love to hear it.

bleak's picture
bleak
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Fuzzy Numbers
Everything is planned, and is perfect.
jeanius2's picture
jeanius2
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Posts: 14
Chris check this out:
Chris check this out: http://seekingalpha.com/article/89684-the-great-american-economy-take-a-closer-look?source=side_bar_editors_picks it seems to be based on ‘Fuzzy Numbers’.
Liberator's picture
Liberator
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Posts: 22
Re: Fuzzy Numbers

Chris concludes that among the effects of the government's systematic under-reporting of the CPI is that Social Security pensions (adjusted each year by COLA) should be higher by 70%. This is dynamite.

At a rough guess, 50 million people are receiving around $15,000 a year instead of the $25,000 that is due. That's an annual current shortfall of $500 billion. The size of what is properly "owed" by way of past underpayments to these Seniors and to the estates of those who have died since the deception began in 1985 - with interest - is beyond my ability to calculate, but must be several trillion dollars; quite enough to make the entire Federal Government irretrievably bankrupt.

Does anyone know if the present AARP leadership is open to learn these facts and to take action upon them?

 

 

Majormoney's picture
Majormoney
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Re: Fuzzy Numbers

Liberator:

Excellent!  Dynamite indeed!! 

But I doubt that AARP will be the ones to blow the whistle on this.  If AARP has their wits about them (which admittedly is doubtful), they will figure that the present 60% of SOMETHING is better than 100% of NOTHING.  As you imply, exposing this scam would likely collapse the whole damn government, and with it the present 60% Ponzi scheme. The AARP membership would not be happy.

 

 

 

Ray Hewitt's picture
Ray Hewitt
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Re: Fuzzy Numbers
Does anyone know if the present AARP leadership is open to learn these facts and to take action upon them?
Pardon my laughter. The AARP is a willing accomplice. It's an open secret in Washington.
Liberator's picture
Liberator
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Re: Fuzzy Numbers

"Pardon my laughter. The AARP is a willing accomplice. It's an open secret in Washington."

If true, that is appalling. Are you suggesting that political action is a dead duck on this issue?

If so, do you extend that principle to everything else Chris has put in to this course, ie that his suggestion that the crises of the next 20 years can be overcome given only "the political will" is doomed to failure?

iameurope's picture
iameurope
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Posts: 7
David Cameron shot himself

David Cameron shot himself in the foot by quoting miselading figures about Oxford.

Quite embarassing for a PM...

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