Fuel price predictions for the next 10 years?

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switters's picture
switters
Status: Platinum Member (Offline)
Joined: Jul 19 2008
Posts: 744
Fuel price predictions for the next 10 years?

I'm in the market for a new (used) car and it's got me thinking about what's likely to happen with fuel prices over the next 10 years.  Peak cheap oil is upon us, of course, but the decline in supply and increase in prices isn't going to be linear.  I'd expect prices to surge to new highs, then crash when the recession such surges would create sets in, then rise again when supply is constricted d/t decreased exploration and production.

With this in mind, my sense is that fuel prices might average 30-40% higher in today's dollars over the next decade... but this is a total guess on my part.  I'm curious to know what you think.

Nichoman's picture
Nichoman
Status: Gold Member (Offline)
Joined: Nov 1 2008
Posts: 422
Fossil Fuels Largely Replaced In Next 10-20 Years?

Switters...

Short term:

  • (next 3 to 5 years)...I share a similar view as yours.

Long Term:

  • Disagree.  
  • Some long termers may recall in previous posts my position over the past 2 plus years that fossil fuels probably will be replaced sooner versus later than most consensus positions.
  • Maintain this view (several promising things happening).   I've held this similar (a bit more optimistic w/r/t energy?) for many years and maintain it.

Please consider...

Our Science and mathmatics, as I've stated previously...my position is incomplete and unbalanced.  

We must move away from seeing things in an inertial and gravitational framework (horizontal and vertical) and more into the E-M forces and Nuclear forces that are ~36-38 ORDERS OF MAGNITUDE more powerful than gravitational forces.  Plus, E-M forces weaken slower than gravitational as distance increases.    Yes, this impacts Einstein, Schrodenger, Heisenberg, Plank, Bohr etc.

My exchanges with several pioneers from prior lives in these areas continue to be encouraging.  Example: Andrea Rossi E-Cat invention.  His behaviour has been even more encouraging than the demonstrations in ongoing conversations and questions.   Military leadership training suggests he is sincere.

Hint:  The media and world leaders (yes, Obama, etc.) I'm told are aware of this phenomena from conversations.   No media because fear "too good to be true" assertions to layperson and concern of being conned and impact their credibility.  This is reasonable position(s).  Folks I respect and have seen the phenomena and made key measurements are encouraged this is real.  The data are in some ways similar to caliometry data saw in the past. Time will tell in next 5 months with October factory openings in Greece and Florida.      

There's lots going on...including other areas. 

Its all in observations, data and reproducability.  Opinions are always tertiary...hence longer term a bit more sanguine

Keep the big picture.

Hope this is of some utility.

Nichoman 

JAG's picture
JAG
Status: Diamond Member (Offline)
Joined: Oct 26 2008
Posts: 2492
Hey Old Buddy...

Hey Switters,

Its great to hear from you again....How have you been? 

To me, the price of fuel is has more to do with wall street "scalping" than anything else, which is why I devised a simple strategy to hedge against rising gasoline prices. I figure we have one more great wall street fleecing in the fuel markets coming before there is enough outrage to force traders to move on to the next game.

So what is my guess for fuel prices over the next decade: an average price of $2-3/gallon, with the occasional spike to $17/gallon. Surprised

On a semi-related topic, does anyone have any experience with CNG conversion kits for trucks. as I doubt we are going to see an a good electric hybrid design for a truck in the next decade? I remember reading that one of the big-wigs at Chesapeake Energy had a natural gas compressor set-up at his home, and used it to fill up his CNG/Gasoline hybrid SUV over night. I figure with the recent explosion in hydro-fracking that NG will be relatively cheap over the next decade.

joemanc's picture
joemanc
Status: Martenson Brigade Member (Offline)
Joined: Aug 16 2008
Posts: 834
More Up and Less Down

Switters,

I think your on the right track. I picture the future price of fuel as w's...wwwwwwwww....where each w has higher high's and higher low's than the previous w. At some point, and I don't know where, there has to be a breaking point for people and the economy where the scramble to alternatives takes place. It's too bad that "scramble" is not happening now while it can be more orderly.

switters's picture
switters
Status: Platinum Member (Offline)
Joined: Jul 19 2008
Posts: 744
Great to hear from you JAG

Hey Jeff,

Been a while!  I've been well.  Focusing on vocation, community building, preparation of all sorts.  Not much time to participate online these days.

Ingenious strategy for hedging gas prices.  I like it.

And yes, I agree there will be tremendous volatility in the energy markets in the years to come.  

switters's picture
switters
Status: Platinum Member (Offline)
Joined: Jul 19 2008
Posts: 744
Great to hear from you JAG

Hey Jeff,

Been a while!  I've been well.  Focusing on vocation, community building, preparation of all sorts.  Not much time to participate online these days.

Ingenious strategy for hedging gas prices.  I like it.

And yes, I agree there will be tremendous volatility in the energy markets in the years to come.  

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