Food Crisis

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On Our Own's picture
On Our Own
Status: Bronze Member (Offline)
Joined: Dec 28 2009
Posts: 72
Food Crisis

Most of you will probably have read this from the daily digest,  but I would like some ideas of how most of you feel about this.

http://www.marketskeptics.com/2009/12/2010-food-crisis-for-dummies.html  

 

The USDA numbers do NOT add up.  I have asked many others who farm and even some insiders at the USDA and no one can (or will) give me a clear answer as to why the numbers look so odd.  Farmers swear this was the year from hell and they had low production,  USDA numbers show bumper crops everywhere.  It is January and despite some upticks in prices and the occasional empty shelf,  I haven't seen any impact yet.  The price upticks haven't been as bad as I had expected.  Pretty soon we will be in another growing season.....  The numbers don't add up,  but if there was going to be a real serious crisis wouldn't it have started already??

Damnthematrix's picture
Damnthematrix
Status: Diamond Member (Offline)
Joined: Aug 10 2008
Posts: 3998
Re: Food Crisis

We were discussing this on another thread last year, and a farmer came on and posted that things were not as bad as described all over the USA.....  some places had above average crops apparently.  So this would compensate for bad news elewhere.

The other thing to remember is that there is a lot of food in storage all over the place, and it might take 3 months for stocks to deplete, and of course longer for as long as some of the depletion is topped up with whatever is coming in.  It's a bit like peak oil, some fields are depleting really fast, but lots of new smaller ones almost make up the difference, so that it produces a plateau.

We could be on a peak food plateau....

Mike

Saffron's picture
Saffron
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Joined: Aug 29 2009
Posts: 250
Re: Food Crisis

from the article:

Specifically, the USDA has declared half the counties in the Midwest to be primary disaster areas, including 274 counties in the last 30 days alone. These designations are based on the criteria of a minimum of 30 percent loss in the value of at least one crop in the county. The chart below shows counties declared primary disaster areas by the secretary of Agriculture and the president of the United States.

is it possible that some of the disasters were exaggerated for the federal monies that would come from it?

But, what am I thinking ... that would be unethical. 

Full Moon's picture
Full Moon
Status: Diamond Member (Offline)
Joined: Oct 14 2008
Posts: 1258
Re: Food Crisis

  I am not sure what to think ,  Our county is on the disaster  list and  from the county papers we have never had better yields .     I am usually a very trusting person  but this raises suspicions .     It does not however take away the fact that  those who have the power can raise the price as they see fit .     You notice a few months ago sweet potatoes at $.39 a #  and now $ 1.19  because they are supper food .

docmims's picture
docmims
Status: Platinum Member (Offline)
Joined: Jun 17 2009
Posts: 644
Re: Food Crisis

Perhaps the rising food prices being blamed on shortages due to weather might be politically more palatable than saying:  " we are printing tons of money and causing inflation"?

Oh never mind, forget that.  It's the 'greedy' middle men of course!

rickets's picture
rickets
Status: Silver Member (Offline)
Joined: Jun 8 2009
Posts: 238
Re: Food Crisis

The USDA just released its 2009 final crop report.  There is no shortage in overall food.  There are several sites with fear monger articles, but the facts are that at this point there is no shortage.  Here is a link to a couple summaries:

http://abcnews.go.com/Business/wirestory?id=9543190&page=1

http://www.cattlenetwork.com/USDA-s-Final-2009-Crop-Report--Facts-Behind...

One potential area of confusion is that acres used to plant wheat at are generational lows (if not much longer).  Also, the wheat crop has been quite poor.  However, net of all crops, the year was just fine.  The futures prices in corn and soy would confirm this.

On Our Own's picture
On Our Own
Status: Bronze Member (Offline)
Joined: Dec 28 2009
Posts: 72
Re: Food Crisis

I got this information here on Cm in the daily digest.    Does that mean there is fear mongering in the daily digest?  Gasp.

SagerXX's picture
SagerXX
Status: Diamond Member (Offline)
Joined: Feb 11 2009
Posts: 2219
Re: Food Crisis

So the US crop figures are okay.  What about the world?  There's a lot of funky weather about, especially in the southern hemisphere -- just ask DTM.

Viva -- Sager

plato1965's picture
plato1965
Status: Platinum Member (Offline)
Joined: Feb 18 2009
Posts: 615
Re: Food Crisis

 

DTM: "We could be on a peak food plateau...."

 

 I think we passed peak (quality) food a long time back... now we have substitution (cheap margarine for butter, aspartame for sugar) and hedonics... -  brightly packaged, convenient, processed **** ..

 

Full Moon's picture
Full Moon
Status: Diamond Member (Offline)
Joined: Oct 14 2008
Posts: 1258
Re: Food Crisis

 plato ...  so right , SO RIGHT .    Health issues will be showing it more and more  and check out what they are calling food in school lunches .    Well  we probably do not want to go down this trail .

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