Financial Forecast For 2009: Considering Resource Limitations

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switters's picture
switters
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Financial Forecast For 2009: Considering Resource Limitations

Gail the Actuary, one of my favorite writers at The Oil Drum, recently published a Financial Forecast for 2009 with a review of how we got to where we are now.  It's one of the best synopses of our predicament that I've seen in a while.  Gail is one of those few who comprehends the relationship between economy, environment and energy.

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SteveS
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Re: Financial Forecast For 2009: (and compare to 2008)

Interesting article. I always like to check how well a forecaster did for the previous year. In this case http://www.theoildrum.com/node/3382. Probably the most accurate forecast of last year I have seen!

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scbissler
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Re: Financial Forecast For 2009: Considering Resource ...

I was also very impressed with her 2008 forecast.  I might have to print her  2008 and 2009 forecasts and show them to folks that I'm trying to persuade to take these issues seriously.

switters's picture
switters
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Re: Financial Forecast For 2009: Considering Resource ...
scbissler wrote:

I was also very impressed with her 2008 forecast.  I might have to print her  2008 and 2009 forecasts and show them to folks that I'm trying to persuade to take these issues seriously.

That's a great idea.

As I said in the original post, Gail is one of the few writers (Chris
M. is another) that comprehends the full scope of the challenges we're
facing and how they interrelate.  That explains her success so far with
predictions and, as you've both pointed out, gives us good cause to pay
attention to her predictions for 2009 and beyond.

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Ray Hewitt
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Re: Financial Forecast For 2009: Considering Resource ...

The chart on this link give a good visual indicator of how badly the major banks are insolvent.

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_nSTO-vZpSgc/SXoel6A1A-I/AAAAAAAAFfM/KhBs_vgFVes/s1600-h/bank-circles.png

I wouldn't be surprised if Obama calls a bank holiday or something like that in the next few months. It's that bad.

Ray Hewitt's picture
Ray Hewitt
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Re: Financial Forecast For 2009: Considering Resource ...

As I said in the original post, Gail is one of the few writers (Chris
M. is another) that comprehends the full scope of the challenges we're
facing and how they interrelate. 

Chris M. and a small army of Austrian Theorists like myself who saw this building up decades ago. Chris K. is probably not familiar with them.

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Nichoman
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Re: Financial Forecast For 2009: Considering Resource ...

Mentioned this article with some bottom line take home points w/r/t Gail's article in forums at the link below...

http://www.peakprosperity.com/forum/oil-drum-2009-economicenergy-forecast-gail-tverberg-aka-gail-actuary/11226

This past Thursday...Gerald Celente issued a "CODE RED Economy In Collapse - Drastic Actions To Be Taken" 

which can be read here...

http://thecomingdepression.blogspot.com/2009/01/code-red-economy-in-collapse-drastic.html

Does anyone know how often he ever has put out a CODE RED?

There is nothing I see in the global financial/economic trends that doesn't suggest we are in for accelerating bad times.

 

Nichoman  

 

 

 

 

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switters
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Re: Financial Forecast For 2009: Considering Resource ...
Ray Hewitt wrote:

As I said in the original post, Gail is one of the few writers (Chris
M. is another) that comprehends the full scope of the challenges we're
facing and how they interrelate. 

Chris M. and a small army of Austrian Theorists like myself who saw this building up decades ago. Chris K. is probably not familiar with them.

Actually, Ray, I'm talking about people who understand how environmental and energy issues are related to our economic problems. The Austrian theorists you refer to who comprehend the economics, but are clueless about energy and how energy drives economy, don't fit this category.

 

switters's picture
switters
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Re: Financial Forecast For 2009: Considering Resource ...
Nichoman wrote:

Mentioned this article with some bottom line take home points w/r/t Gail's article in forums at the link below...

http://www.peakprosperity.com/forum/oil-drum-2009-economicenergy-forecast-gail-tverberg-aka-gail-actuary/11226

This past Thursday...Gerald Celente issued a "CODE RED Economy In Collapse - Drastic Actions To Be Taken" 

which can be read here...

http://thecomingdepression.blogspot.com/2009/01/code-red-economy-in-collapse-drastic.html

Does anyone know how often he ever has put out a CODE RED?

There is nothing I see in the global financial/economic trends that doesn't suggest we are in for accelerating bad times.

 

Nichoman  

I don't know the answer to your question regarding Celente's CODE RED, but I do know that he's been wrong more often than he's been right.  That's not to say I disagree with all of his predictions (I don't), but that I find Gail's to be more credible and sound.

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Farmer Brown
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Re: Financial Forecast For 2009: Considering Resource ...

Chris K,

Thanks for the link/post.  

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Ray Hewitt
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Re: Financial Forecast For 2009: Considering Resource ...

Chris K.

Actually, Ray, I'm talking about people who understand how
environmental and energy issues are related to our economic problems.

You would be wrong.  Austrian Theory (and Libertarian Theory) embodies the concept of property rights. The environmental problems that concern you are a direct result of government usurpation of property rights, leaving owners with no recourse to take legal action against neighbors who pollute their property and their air. You should be directing your ire at the failure of government to maintain public land, a responsibilty to which they have proved ill equiped. I assure you that if you continue on the fascist model of urging the state to control private property, the problems to which you want to solve will only get worse.

I believe that somewhere about 1/3 of the land mass of the US is publicly owned. As matters go, when everybody owns something, nobody owns it. Public property is perceived as a dumping ground. Polluters have been deft at getting license from regulators.

Examples of trusting government to maintain public property: those major forest fires that we see so often are a direct result of the Forest Service's campaign to stamp out all fires, allowing dead wood to build up. I needn't remind you how our transportion infrastructure is falling into disrepair.

The Austrian theorists you refer to who comprehend the economics, but
are clueless about energy and how energy drives economy, don't fit this
category.

??? The two are interrelated.

If I am right about you thinking government is the cure, you fall into the trap of seeing government as some kind of genie who can satisfy your wishes. As the many genie jokes illustrate, be careful what you wish for.

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Ray Hewitt
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Re: Financial Forecast For 2009: Considering Resource ...

The standard MO for any president at the beginning of his term is to get the shock over at the beginning of his term to maximize the time he has to justify his power-grab. Expect it.

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