The Fibonacci Thread

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Morpheus's picture
Morpheus
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The Fibonacci Thread

I've been studying Elliot Wave Theory the past year, and lately I have read, and I am now re-reading The Master Swing Trader, among other resources.

Fibonacci retracements are now something that I am starting to use as an adjunct to entering and exiting market positions.

My trading strategy is simple. Use the markets to harvest cash. Then skim cash off the profits on a consistent basis to purchase physical gold, silver, and platinum. In other words, I use market volatility to generate paper profits, which in turn are converted to hard assets.

Eventually I believe that the markets will go up in smoke as there are no fundamentals backing it. But I'll ride the trend up for gold and silver, and ride the crash down for $CAD.

That said, does anyone have any other good resources on ELT, Fibonacci retracements in particular?

Investing minds want to know!

Thanks.

Pete

 

 

 

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Morpheus
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Re: The Fibonacci Thread

Edit: ELT is "EWT". And mods, I hope this is the right place for this topic. If not then feel free to place it where you think it is a best fit. Thanks.

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Dogs_In_A_Pile
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Re: The Fibonacci Thread

Hey Pete -

Cat and I don't do anything with EWT or looking for Fibonacci retracement patterns - for where we are and what we do, it would be polishing a cannonball and not give us any more exploitable information wrt a trade entry/exit point, but...........

We do use fibonacci intervals on our time charts for technical indicator assessment to match up with market awareness and upcoming events for the particular equity or ETF we evaluating.  My sense is the fibonacci interval gives you a precursor peek at the price candle trend but I would be hard pressed to come up with a quantifiable summary that proves that.  While we pay close attention to all chart intervals, the 233 minute chart is really nice.

 

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Re: The Fibonacci Thread

Pete,

I occasionally will read Robert McHugh's EW analysis. So far, he has been pretty acurate with his wave count of the current rally, but we will have to see if he nails the top this time around.

Do Not Be Fooled, Another Major Economic Collapse Could Be Coming Sooner Than Many Think (Aug 09)

How We Called the Stock Market Crash of 2008 To the Day (Oct 08)

SafeHaven Archive of McHugh Commentary

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Morpheus
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Re: The Fibonacci Thread
Dogs_In_A_Pile wrote:

Hey Pete -

Cat and I don't do anything with EWT or looking for Fibonacci retracement patterns - for where we are and what we do, it would be polishing a cannonball and not give us any more exploitable information wrt a trade entry/exit point, but...........

We do use fibonacci intervals on our time charts for technical indicator assessment to match up with market awareness and upcoming events for the particular equity or ETF we evaluating.  My sense is the fibonacci interval gives you a precursor peek at the price candle trend but I would be hard pressed to come up with a quantifiable summary that proves that.  While we pay close attention to all chart intervals, the 233 minute chart is really nice.

 

I use the retracement points for potential trade setups, then use candlestick patterns as the primary trigger, folllowed by other indicators (Williams %R, RSI, MACD, yada yada...) to confirm.

I have to say, it's added an edge to my trades.

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Re: The Fibonacci Thread
JAG wrote:

Pete,

I occasionally will read Robert McHugh's EW analysis. So far, he has been pretty acurate with his wave count of the current rally, but we will have to see if he nails the top this time around.

Do Not Be Fooled, Another Major Economic Collapse Could Be Coming Sooner Than Many Think (Aug 09)

How We Called the Stock Market Crash of 2008 To the Day (Oct 08)

SafeHaven Archive of McHugh Commentary

Nice links, Thanks.

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JAG
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Re: The Fibonacci Thread

Morph,

You can read McHugh's report from last weekend here.

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Re: The Fibonacci Thread
JAG wrote:

Morph,

You can read McHugh's report from last weekend here.

 

Bookmarked. Thanks!

Tell me Jeff, the question is actually rhetorical (or you wouldn't have linked him, LOL). How accurate has this guy been?

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JAG
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Re: The Fibonacci Thread

Morph,

All EW analysis is pretty subjective for my taste. When 5 different EW analysts can label a chart in five different ways using the same methodology, that is pretty subjective analysis in my opinion.

I actually learned of McHugh via Nates Economic Edge blog. Nate cites his work quite often. So far, he is calling for the current rally to continue to the DOW 10,500 range, so in that respect, he has been more accurate than most market commentators that I follow. Will he nail the top of this rally? I have know idea.

But personally, I don't give McHugh much weight in my own trading, as I see most of his public market commentary as marketing for his subscription service. The weekend report that I linked to above is something that I personally posted using the dropbox, so there is no need to bookmark it. I signed up for a 30 day free trial of his service and I thought I would share some of it here.

All the best...Jeff

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Morpheus
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Re: The Fibonacci Thread
JAG wrote:

Morph,

All EW analysis is pretty subjective for my taste. When 5 different EW analysts can label a chart in five different ways using the same methodology, that is pretty subjective analysis in my opinion.

I actually learned of McHugh via Nates Economic Edge blog. Nate cites his work quite often. So far, he is calling for the current rally to continue to the DOW 10,500 range, so in that respect, he has been more accurate than most market commentators that I follow. Will he nail the top of this rally? I have know idea.

But personally, I don't give McHugh much weight in my own trading, as I see most of his public market commentary as marketing for his subscription service. The weekend report that I linked to above is something that I personally posted using the dropbox, so there is no need to bookmark it. I signed up for a 30 day free trial of his service and I thought I would share some of it here.

All the best...Jeff

Jeff. I use Stockcharts.com and their tools. I think they are among the best, IMHO and have a really easy Fib tool in their kit. But, one of the issues that I have with EW is where to draw the base of the FIB retracements.

That's why I don't rely on them as an indicator. Just a tool to find potential setups. I'll see a pattern, and then see if the FIBs fit for that pattern. Trust me, I've seen them fail too. That's what limit orders are for, right? Wink

Swallow your pride, lick your wounds, and walk away 3% poorer on my position because I have "seen something" that wasn't there. Well, I have learned to use EW to confirm a setup, not to find them. 

Happened today actually. MOT blew right through a fine fib retracement pattern with a spinning top ending yesterday and all indicators stating OVERSOLD, OVERSOLD! Blamo, waited for the open, it fell, short order... ha ha! I'm in the money!

Nope, blew up on me. At noon the FIB, and indicators failed as MOT went vertical (again) and blew right through my stop in minutes. Cry  Too bad. Was on a 2 week roll. But, I make money by limiting my losses and taking what's given to me, not by getting greedy. I got greedy today AND saw something that wasn't there. Still did very nicely over two weeks but that's what happens when greed makes you see too much into something. Again, this time the retracements proved worthless.

Regards,

Pete

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Danerics Blog

Another good source of Eliiott Wave analysis:

http://danericselliottwaves.blogspot.com/

Morpheus's picture
Morpheus
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Re: The Fibonacci Thread

I was LATE in my timing. Crap! Yell

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