Errors/questions on Oil - the coming supply crunch

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tommyguy's picture
Status: Bronze Member (Online)
Joined: Sep 30 2008
Posts: 32
Errors/questions on Oil - the coming supply crunch

I have a question about the table on page 9 of the Martenson Report Oil - the coming supply crunch.

 You say you are using a ratio of "oil-to-GDP" of 0.27% per 1% growth in GDP and then show a table of implied oil supply growth at various levels of GDP growth. But I can't make the numbers work past one year.

 Let's take an example: 5% GDP growth.

This should imply an oil growth rate of 0.27 x 5 = 1.35%

Starting at a level of 84mb/d, one year does yield 84 x 1.0135 = 85.134mb/d and you report 85.14. But in 5 years, it should be 84 x 1.0135^5 = 89.82mb/d but you report 102.84. This number would imply a growth rate of about 4% per year for oil production.

What am I missing?

Thanx, and keep up the good work.


cmartenson's picture
Status: Diamond Member (Offline)
Joined: Jun 7 2007
Posts: 6028
Re: Errors/questions on Oil - the coming supply crunch

Hi tommyGuy,

I made an error (dropped a $ sign in the old excel table) and missed it.  It was caught within minutes by another sharp eyed reader and has been fixed on the copy at the site.

I recommend that you print out the version located at the site, or simply read it there, if you want the fixed version.  Also, several other annoying copy-edit errors slipped by me as well for the newsletter version and are fixed.

In general, I will always find a fix a few minor things over the next few days after sending a newsletter out.

When the errors require, I will post an explanation at the site, as I did in this case.  Here's the text from that (posted to the very top of the Report itself):

Note: I missed an error that impacted the last two tables in this article. This version has been corrected. The newsletter contains two tables which overstate the oil supply shortfall. While I regret all errors and strive to make as few as possible, I am somewhat salved by the fact that the fundamental conclusions of this article were unaffected.

Thanks for your sharp eyes!


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