END OF EASY OIL?

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DEUS X MACHINA's picture
DEUS X MACHINA
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KugsCheese
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I just read this article

I just read this article myself.   Based on the article's information daily world use is ~100M Barrels per day.   The Wafra steam field can produce with this technique ~6B barrels of oil.   The cost over 10 years will be $10B.   All this for 60 days of supply at current daily world use?   And I don't understand the cost at a field price of $10B/6B = $1.67 per barrrel (in the field) when oil is now trading at ~ $100 per barrel.   What are other field prices?  Thx.

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KugsCheese
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DEUS X MACHINA

 

You can read the article for free by accessing via a Google Search which is here http://xrl.us/bkpnq3 (link to Google)

 

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plato1965
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America in serious sh-trouble.

 

 

 Nice semi-slip of the tongue... Laughing

 

 On the subject of speculators - and sh-loads of profit.

 

 http://www.zerohedge.com/article/cftc-charges-traders-controlled-worlds-largest-tanker-company-oil-price-manipulation-after-m

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Peak oil by Chief Economist of the International Energy Agency

This is a recent post about peak oil in 2006.

Admitted by Rr. Fatih Birol, Chief Economist of the International Energy Agency.

http://www.the9billion.com/2011/05/24/peak-oil-was-in-2006-international-energy-agency-chief-says-video/

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Good video
dimitros wrote:

This is a recent post about peak oil in 2006.

Admitted by Rr. Fatih Birol, Chief Economist of the International Energy Agency.

http://www.the9billion.com/2011/05/24/peak-oil-was-in-2006-international-energy-agency-chief-says-video/

Dimitros

Welcome to the forums.  That is a good video.  It is surprising to get a top person from the IEA to clearly say on tape that we have reached peak conventional oil, and he is not confident about alternate sources.

Travlin 

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jumblies
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What surprised me is that

What surprised me is that the task force sponsored by the royal society (around 5:45 in the video) are suggesting the collapse could happen in 2014, if not 2013. Do others here think that timeline is credible? And what would the nature of this oil crunch be? Would it be a spike in fuel prices? Would the spike be sustained?

 

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Frontrunners of catastrophe

Thank youTravlin.

Across the Atlantic you are still debating because, as the video mentions, you are under “ risk habituation”.

We are the frontrunners of catastrophe here in Greece. Cassandras are present in the news on a daily basis without hope of something optimistic.

I joined your group but I could join any other in Chris’ web site. All groups indirectly and directly are reflecting in my country’s agony for survival.  

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jumblies wrote: What
jumblies wrote:

What surprised me is that the task force sponsored by the royal society (around 5:45 in the video) are suggesting the collapse could happen in 2014, if not 2013. Do others here think that timeline is credible? And what would the nature of this oil crunch be? Would it be a spike in fuel prices? Would the spike be sustained?

 

The Task Force report, available here http://peakoiltaskforce.net/download-the-report/2010-peak-oil-report/

doesn't say collapse will happen; it says that world demands will begin to exceed the production rate as it peaks out around 2014-2015.  There is an extensive discussion of future oil prices.  Basically they will be higher and more volatile.

A similar timeline for peak production is in other recent reports, like the JOE report described here.

http://energybulletin.net/node/52029

The exact timeline is not as important as accepting that it will happen in the next few years and certainly in our lifetimes, so start preparing!

Tom

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Travlin
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A suggestion
dimitros wrote:

We are the frontrunners of catastrophe here in Greece. Cassandras are present in the news on a daily basis without hope of something optimistic.

Dimitros

I feel bad about what people are going through in Greece.  I’m sure you will have many troubles to deal with.  “ … the frontrunners of catastrophe … “ is a very good description.  If you are willing, I’m sure many of us here would be very interested in hearing ongoing reports about how this is affecting your people.  What are the day to day things you have to deal with?  What actions are helpful or harmful?  How do people react emotionally or psychologically?  Anything you can tell us about your experience would be appreciated by us, and writing about it could reduce the stress for you.  We might even have some helpful suggestions for you.  You could start a thread on this topic and update it occasionally.  This could be your chance to become the FerFAL of Europe!  Wink

http://www.peakprosperity.com/blog/preparing-economic-collapse/57744

Good luck.

Travlin 

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jumblies
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Woodman - The commentary at

Woodman - The commentary at 5:56 mark says:

Dr Jeremy Leggett: The oil crunch is when global supply fails to meet demand and starts to drop, and arguably we fear starts to drop so fast you could almost call it a collapse.

Chris Skrebowski: All the calculations tell us that it's going to be no later than 2014, and it could be as early as 2013.

The segment continues with the reporter asking how soon before she can't really afford to fly from Australia and ChrisS responds by suggesting she get her flying in fairly quickly.

The task force report you linked to is dated Feb 2010 and I wonder whether their calculations took into account Saudi Arabia overstating their reserves by 40%. If not then this would bring the timeline closer as would events like the impact of the BP Horizon spill in April 2010 any increased consumption and reduced output due to war. So I wonder if the [small] discrepency between the dates suggested in the interview and those in the report are just minor variations or whether they reflect new information.

Unfortunately part of my preparations are dependent on a number of factors so a year or 2 makes a big difference to me. Still, we started last year (late to the party as ever) and should be in good shape by the end of this.

 

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Travlin wrote: dimitros
Travlin wrote:
dimitros wrote:

We are the frontrunners of catastrophe here in Greece. Cassandras are present in the news on a daily basis without hope of something optimistic.

Dimitros

I feel bad about what people are going through in Greece.  I’m sure you will have many troubles to deal with.  “ … the frontrunners of catastrophe … “ is a very good description.  If you are willing, I’m sure many of us here would be very interested in hearing ongoing reports about how this is affecting your people.  What are the day to day things you have to deal with?  What actions are helpful or harmful?  How do people react emotionally or psychologically?  Anything you can tell us about your experience would be appreciated by us, and writing about it could reduce the stress for you.  We might even have some helpful suggestions for you.  You could start a thread on this topic and update it occasionally.  This could be your chance to become the FerFAL of Europe!  Wink

http://www.peakprosperity.com/blog/preparing-economic-collapse/57744

Good luck.

Travlin 

Yes! Could you do that?

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SteveW
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Gasoline in Greece

I'm in Greece right now having just left Crete for Santorini. Gasoline is 1.78 Euros a litre or about US$9.75 a gallon. Food prices in tourist restaurants are fairly inexpensive by US standards. One can eat an evening meal for $10-15.

Not understanding Greek I cannot report on what the media is saying but one of our hosts on Crete got quite empassioned about the Greeks being screwed by the Germans who "borrow money at 1% and lend it to the Greeks at 10%".

Agricultural practices will be forced to change, like most places, as transportation costs rise. Santorini relies on tourism, wine production and fishing with very little in the way of market garden crops. The Ionian islands are not far from each other though and an entrepeneur with foresight should be into making good sailing vessels. Crete has tremendous surplus olive production and likely sufficient in sheep, goats and chicken.

The question that always occurs to me is "what is the carrying capacity of the land without fossil fuels".

 One hopeful sign is that practically everyone has a pair of maybe 3 X 6 foot panels providing solar water heating with a small tank mounted on top that I suspect contains the heat exchanging fluid (raher than water) but I may be wrong.

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