The Economy Is even worse than you think

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investorzzo's picture
investorzzo
Status: Diamond Member (Offline)
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Posts: 1182
The Economy Is even worse than you think

I just heard from some radio analyst that they believe unemployment could hit another million jobs before the year is out!

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124753066246235811.html

Don't for get the comments......

rowmat's picture
rowmat
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Joined: Nov 15 2008
Posts: 358
Re: The Economy Is even worse than you think
investorzzo wrote:

I just heard from some radio analyst that they believe unemployment could hit another million jobs before the year is out!

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124753066246235811.html

Don't for get the comments......

At the current rate of around 500,000 losing their jobs per month (ignoring the "smoke 'n' mirrors" figures) I would say unemployment could hit another three million jobs before the year is out!

DrKrbyLuv's picture
DrKrbyLuv
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Joined: Aug 10 2008
Posts: 1995
Re: The Economy Is even worse than you think

According to John Williams' Shadow Government Statistics the
unemployment rate is much higher than we are being told.

The SGS Alternate Unemployment Rate reflects current unemployment reporting methodology adjusted for SGS-estimated "discouraged workers" defined away during the Clinton Administration
added to the existing BLS estimates of level U-6 unemployment.

Larry

VeganDB12's picture
VeganDB12
Status: Platinum Member (Offline)
Joined: Jul 18 2008
Posts: 757
Re: The Economy Is even worse than you think

On top of the SGS numbers Mish Shedlock thinks that for many if not most of my generation (the over 40 crowd)  recently laid off from high paying jobs....retraining is not ridiculous and the situation may be hopeless.  This is one of the scarier thoughts if you consider long term implications. He was referring to the new jobs retraining program put out by the feds.

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2009/07/will-obamas-job-retra...

 

I personally know several people over 40 whose unemployment benefits run out real soon, not clear what they are supposed to do but I am truly sad to read this kind of assessment. I guess learning to live on less will mean learning to live with no income except welfare (25-50 bucks a week?).

What is the alternative for the long term unemployed? I hope Mish is wrong.

Take care

D

 

 

cmartenson's picture
cmartenson
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Posts: 5972
Re: The Economy Is even worse than you think

Even the NYT is starting to note that the government numbers are masking things:

Part-Time Workers Mask Unemployment Woes

By DAVID LEONHARDT Published: July 14, 2009

In California and a handful of other states, one out of every five people who would like to be working full time is not now doing so.

After Richard Smith, 58, was laid off from jobs at two carmakers, he moved to Charlotte, N.C., and found only part-time work. He makes $9.50 an hour repairing clubs at a Golf Galaxy store.

It is a startling sign of the pain that the Great Recession is inflicting, and it is largely missed by the official, oft-repeated statistics on unemployment. The national unemployment rate has risen to 9.5 percent, the highest level in more than a quarter-century. Yet it still excludes all those who have given up looking for a job and those part-time workers who want to be working full time.

Include them — as the Labor Department does when calculating its broadest measure of the job market — and the rate reached 23.5 percent in Oregon this spring, according to a New York Times analysis of state-by-state data. It was 21.5 percent in both Michigan and Rhode Island and 20.3 percent in California. In Tennessee, Nevada and several other states that have relied heavily on manufacturing or housing, the rate was just under 20 percent this spring and may have since surpassed it.

Almost nobody believes that unemployment has finished rising, either. On Tuesday, President Obama said he expected it to “tick up for several months.”

The other relevant statistic here is that one out of six are employed by the government - state, federal or local.  This strikes me as too high (certainly I would council a company with such a ratio to trim it by nearly half) and is one ratio that I expect to decline as we maneuver towards a future filled with less.  Perhaps not right away, but eventually when there is not quite enough to go around the remaining productive workers will revolt in one fashion or another at the burdens imposed by being asked to carry too many government workers.  One expression of such revolt here in my neck of the woods is an unbroken string of tax overrides being put forth by the town but voted down by the residents.

To put it in perspective, imagine that you live on a street with six houses holding six families.  Five of those families go out to work every day but then come home and give enough of their daily earnings to allow the sixth family to live.  In all of history you will be hard pressed to find such a dramatic ratio.  It is my contention that our current ratio is merely an expression of the amount of surplus energy that petroleum has provided.  Without such an abundance of surplus it is highly doubtful to me that we'd see such a large proportion government workers.  At least in a supposedly free-market, capitalistic society I should state.

cannotaffordit's picture
cannotaffordit
Status: Gold Member (Offline)
Joined: Jun 12 2008
Posts: 273
Re: The Economy Is even worse than you think

 One out of every six work FOR the government.  

Among other frightening things, that really means that one person out of every six is producing at a far smaller level of output than the other five, (unless you think government workers are MORE productive than private workers.)

No wonder the cost of government is so high.  When you add this to the enormouis waste in government, its a miracle that the regular working class has been able to sustain it this long.

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