dreams of recovery and inflation

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scepticus
Status: Silver Member (Offline)
Joined: Jan 16 2009
Posts: 129
dreams of recovery and inflation

Hi all,

In the FED thread, many advance the opinion that if the fed's machinations somehow kickstart a recovery then inflation returns with double digit force and it can't be prevented without killing the 'recovery' dead. With this I completely agree.

However implicit in the comments is that there is going to be some measure of recovery. I can't see where this can possibly come from, so I have started this thread to gather ideas of what form such an inflation driving recovery will be.

A weakening dollar can easily cause import prices to rise in the meantime, but in this sense the dollar is only returning to fair value against other currencies and giving up its reserve status, which has to happen anyway.

So what could drive recovery, 1, 2, 5 or 10 years down the line? I can't think of anything, but I can see that:

1) the whole of the last 30 years was about protecting western economies form wage arbitrage and technological unemployment, by inventing aphony economy based on credit. Now its gone wage arbitrage will be merciless.

2) demand has gone into reverse - an over consumption economy is morphing into a underconsumption economy.

3) within 20 years the age structure of the population will have shifted hugely towards the grey end of the scale.

Without recovery, demand resurgance and upward wage pressure where will inflation come from? Can someone help me out and tell me how bernakes 300 billion, or 600 billion or whatever of printing will compensate for 2.5 trillion in credit lines being withdrawn by the end of 2009 alone?

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