Doubts over US-China-Japan talks

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cat233
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Doubts over US-China-Japan talks

From the Asian Times.  Goes to show nothing is every easy.

Doubts over US-China-Japan talks
By Jian Junbo

Jun 16, 2009

www.atimes.com/atimes/China/KF16Ad01.html

SHANGHAI - Senior officials from China, Japan and the United States are reportedly planning to hold their first-ever trilateral policy dialogue in Washington next month. But doubts over whether the talks will be able to address pressing security matters in Northeast Asia have already raised fears it will be little more than a talking shop.

The three countries have well-established bilateral channels. China has held seven rounds of Strategic Economic Dialogue with America since 2005, and the Sino-Japan Economic Dialogue started in 2007. Japan and the US have the "2+2" dialogue that is attended by their foreign and defense ministers.

Until now, there has been no formal or informal triangular dialogue between the world's three largest economies. The idea of holding a trilateral dialogue was first floated by China to the George W Bush administration, but it was shelved due to Washington's concerns that such a move would be not be well received by South Korea.

The US, Japan and China have become increasingly economically inter-dependent, especially amid the global financial crisis. Both the US and Japan are suffering, while China's economic situation is marginally better. Not only the US, but now Japan could be planning to seek China's economic help.

One of the major aims of US Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner's visit to China in early June was no doubt to persuade Beijing to buy more US bonds. Similarly, Japan may also hope that China could buy more Japanese goods. Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao announced at the 11th Sino-European Union summit in Prague last month that China would purchase more goods from European countries. As it needs to diversify its huge foreign reserves from US dollar assets, China could also seek closer economic ties with Japan.

At the dialogue session, Japan will be represented by Koro Bessho, deputy vice foreign minister and director general of the Foreign Ministry's Foreign Policy Bureau, and the United States by Anne-Marie Slaughter, the State Department's policy planning director. A Foreign Ministry official is expected to represent China, the Kyodo news agency reported on June 7.

A pressing issue of common concern is the growing challenge to security in Northeast Asia created by North Korea's recent series of missile launches and particularly its nuclear test on May 25. However, sources from the Obama administration told Kyodo that issues such as North Korea would, in principle, not be discussed at the talks - as Seoul will not be present.

How far security related issues will be addressed is uncertain, and the talks are likely to focus on the overall Asian situation and global issues such as climate change and energy, the source told the newspaper.

This represents an opportunity lost, as North Korea has said it will "never return" to the six-party talks on its nuclear program, and China, the US and Japan are the three major players in these talks.

However, the trilateral dialogue still has important implications for Northeast Asia. They will represent the first time that the US-Japan strategic alliance has discussed regional and global issues with its long-time adversary in the region - China.

But can this dialogue become a significant multilateral arrangement in Northeast Asia? Can it be said that it marks the beginning of an end to Cold War-like tensions in the region?

It is one thing for the countries to talk, it is quite another for them to agree on any solutions. The dialogue will be meaningless if it is just a platform for participants to respectively utter their different positions.

If the dialogue fails to become a formal mechanism similar to existing Sino-US, Sino-Japanese or US-Japanese dialogues, it then can hardly be expected to resolve major issues. The trilateral dialogue needs to be institutionalized for it to play an important role in tackling regional issues.

Another obstacle is the complex nature of contemporary Sino-Japan relations. There are long-running historical and territorial disputes between the nations, and it has been reported that Japan plans to purchase more advanced jet fighters from the US to keep China's military modernization in check. Such an arms race would surely undermine the future of the planned trilateral dialogue.

Whether the three-way talks mark the beginning of an end to the Cold War-like tensions in East and Northeast Asia depends on two factors - the future of US-Japan and US-South Korea ties and the North Korea nuclear issue.

If, on the one hand, the China-US-Japan dialogue continues annually but the US continues to strengthen its presence through these allies in the region, then the trilateral dialogue will just become a talk shop.

More specifically, if the dialogue is not aimed at ending the US-led military alliance in the region, it cannot lead to the end of tensions.

With its second nuclear test last month, North Korea reminded the international community that the Cold War is still alive in North Asia. Without the Cold War, there would be no 38th Parallel dividing South Korea and North Korea, and there would not be so many American soldiers and weapons defending the South. Without the 38th Parallel and the US's military presence on the Korean Peninsula, North Korea would have had no excuse to develop nuclear weapons.

Only when this issue is addressed by a Sino-US-Japan dialogue can it be expected to end regional tensions. If the dialogue is to become an important and effective platform it must address security, as this is the most-pressing issue.

To achieve this, the three nations need to consider setting up a collective security mechanism. Sooner or later, they will need to discuss the North Korean nuclear issue and, in relation, the US-led military alliance in the region.

A collective security mechanism could replace the US-led alliance in East and Northeast Asia, and could include not only the US, Japan and South Korea, but also China, North Korea and even Russia. The trilateral dialogue should discuss how to change the role of the US-led military alliance, to solve the North Korean nuclear issue and build a collective security mechanism in the region.

Dr Jian Junbo is assistant professor of the Institute of International Studies at Fudan University, Shanghai, China.
 

Dogs_In_A_Pile's picture
Dogs_In_A_Pile
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Re: Doubts over US-China-Japan talks

I don't understand why these authors continue to lump North Korea in with the major nuclear powers.  Having a nuclear weapon doesn't make a nuclear power - especially if you only have a handful of tactical weapons and no ex theater ballistic missile delivery capability.  (Despite what the glossy-lipped bimbos on Fox and CNN try to convince you of, the North Koreans have yet to successfully launch a Taepo Dong II)

But to the article - would a collective security mechanism (Sino-Japan-US-Russo) put too much pressure on North Korea and force Kim Jong Il into an act of desparation?  Then what?  At least the arms race would be over and the loser would likely be North Korea.

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Re: Doubts over US-China-Japan talks

Dog,

You know where I stand on the NWO issue so.........

They keep lumping them in with the major Nuke powers so as to have an excuse to take them out at any time.  Bring fear into the american household concerning DPK and you will create a "reason" to start a war that in the long run is beneficial to tptb.

 

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Dogs_In_A_Pile
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Re: Doubts over US-China-Japan talks

Logan -

I hear ya, but the existence of the limitations of North Korea's strategic nuclear weapons capability are a lot easier to prove than the non-existence of WMDs.  MSM doesn't even have to do any homework on this one.

I guess my take is that if this "news" scares a particular population set in this country then they are stupid and deserve to be scared.  Besides, just start up another season of Dancing With The Stars or a shockumentary on the sex lives of Paris Hilton and Brittany Spears and the whole flock of morons will refocus on something reeeaaallllly important.

I'm pretty sure that if said PTB truly exist they could come up with something a little better than "NORTH KOREA!!!!  International Nuclear Terror and Threat to World Peace"

And I think we'd agree that if we took out the current leadership of North Korea, in the end it would be a whole lot better for the Koreans north and south of 38 degrees.

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LogansRun
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Re: Doubts over US-China-Japan talks

Well, it's now "North Korea" which has become demonized in the American Psych for years.  Same with Iran.  How much MSM time has the Iranian issue gotten in comparison to the issues that are taking place in say.....India (which just had an election as well).  Tptb, which I'm positive exist (See Fed taking over regulation of ALL FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS  in the US), have created two areas that they could use for WAR purposes.  And, due to the House of Rothschild being in control of Isreal as well as the US Gov't, all they have to do is set the tinder on the dry grass and "Wham!".  There goes the neighborhood!  As well as 40% of the world population as it wouldn't stop with just a few Nukes.

Both countries have been encoded into the American Minds as enemies of the state.  No matter what their capabilities may be, tptb will use this to their fullest advantage. 

 

Dogs_In_A_Pile's picture
Dogs_In_A_Pile
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Re: Doubts over US-China-Japan talks

The so called PTB can't even responsibly oversee money management of a single country much less pull the strings required to orchestrate wars of convenience.

And hey, a nuclear exchange would drawdown stockpiles everywhere, plus get the population back to levels better matched to what Earth's remaining resources can sustain.

We should probably agree to disagree and call it done because nothing you or I type or source is going to change the other's mind.

Let's get back in the garden?

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LogansRun
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Re: Doubts over US-China-Japan talks

Fair enough;-)  It's too bad, because I really want you to survive to coming slaughter of the sheeple by tptb, as I've come to like you.....haha.  I hope you come around soon

Yeah, the garden....too much water!!!!!  Driving me nuts!  I live in a neighborhood that it's AGAINST the HOA to have a raised garden!  The human race is being destroyed by gov't!  Damn NWO has infiltrated my HOA....;-)

 

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