Don't Let Reality Ruin Your Day

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Davos's picture
Davos
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Don't Let Reality Ruin Your Day

Don't Let Reality Ruin Your Day

In 2008 Eric Sprott and David Franklin calculated that $2,041,000,000,000.00 of debt would have to be issued to "balance" the fiscal 2009 "budget".

2.041 trillion.

Three times the debt issuance of 2008 or, as they put it: A 200% increase by each group purchasing treasuries. 
No liability column gushes over with 2 TRILLION DOLLARS worth of red ink. It becomes blatantly apparent that any governmental servent referring to this ledger as a "budget" is absent of mind and scribbling in the ledger's column of the insane. 

Gone is any and all grips with reality. 

Add in the word "balanced" to this "budget" and without any doubt you have a very unbalanced politician.
Sprott and Franklin, like a handful of super financial bloggers, sliced up the debt that was issued in 2009 and categorized the buyers by group:

"So who bought all the new Treasury securities to finance the massive increase in expenditures? According to the same report, there were three distinct groups that bought more than they did in 2008. The first was “Foreign and International Buyers”, who purchased $697.5 billion worth of Treasury securities in fiscal 2009 – representing about 23% more than their respective purchases in fiscal 2008. The second group was the Federal Reserve itself. According to its published balance sheet, it increased its treasury holdings by $286 billion in 2009, representing a 60% increase year-over-year.

So who was the third large buyer? Drum roll please,... it was “Other Investors”. After purchasing $90 billion in 2008, this group has purchased $510.1 billion of freshly minted treasury securities so far in the first three quarters of fiscal 2009. If you annualize this rate of purchase, they are on pace to buy $680 billion of US treasuries this year - or more than seven times what they purchased in 2008."

And who the buyers weren't:

"So to answer the question - who is the Household Sector? They are a PHANTOM. They don’t exist. They merely serve to balance the ledger in the Federal Reserve’s Flow of Funds report."

The Simple Math Formula: Foreigners 698 billion + (Federal Reserve "financed" 286 billion + a Phantom "purchase" of roughly 704 billion) ='s The Federal Reserve "financed" about a trillion dollars. 

Under the ledger column labeled "sane" there would be one entry for the foreign financed purchases. Personally, I'd question their motive of saving their investment by tossing good money after bad, but nonetheless it was indeed a purchase. Of course, let's not be terribly surprised should we see Alan Grayson questioning Ben Bernake a few months from now. 

The exchange would go something like this, Grayson (heated and playing the part of his old attorney persona): "This entry for half a trillion given to foreigners, can you explain it?" Bernake (voice cracking but scoffing like his past persona, that of condescending professor): "Foreign governments were having difficulties of their own. Reduced demand would have put pressure on treasuries, so we,,, loaned,,,(yeah that's the word), the foreign central banks funds so they could purchase securities". Grayson: "Which countries did you give three quarters of a trillion to?" Bernake: Shrugs then states, "Central banks". He isn't intimidated by Grayson's "I'm going to strip your bark off" tone. Grayson after all is taking trillions of Bernake's funny money to fund his beloved Health Care Reform.
Another oxymoron.

So lets not mince words here: When it comes to Federal Reserve appearing in conjunction with the words "finance" and "phantom purchase" the scribble in the column of the insane becomes a Rorschach doodle of some nightmarish Steven King character.

Quantitative Easing is neither finance or purchase. Quantitative Easing is counterfeiting. Counterfeiting is the only crime listed in the Constitution other than treason. Bernake and every member of Congress (read: just about everybody but Ron Paul) who allow this atrocity to continue should be tried for both.

We are on a absolute charted course to becoming the United States of Zimbabwe.

2010 will be a pivotal year: David Reilly over at Bloomberg did a good piece on Barney "I don't know what (my boyfriends) Marijuana plants look like" Frank's latest bill. I've seen roadkill decimated by eighteen wheelers that look prettier. It affords bankers another 4 trillion bucks the next time TSHTF. This guy must have aides look both ways before he crosses streets. One can only assume this is Geithner's 'Plan C' for when the 3.5 trillion dollar CRE meteor traveling 30,000 mph impacts planet earth and blows up what is left of the "economy".

"Instead, it supports the biggest banks. It authorizes Federal Reserve banks to provide as much as $4 trillion in emergency funding the next time Wall Street crashes. So much for “no-more-bailouts” talk. That is more than twice what the Fed pumped into markets this time around. The size of the fund makes the bribes in the Senate’s health-care bill look minuscule. 

Oh, hold on, the Federal Reserve and Treasury Secretary can’t authorize these funds unless “there is at least a 99 percent likelihood that all funds and interest will be paid back.” Too bad the same models used to foresee the housing meltdown probably will be used to predict this likelihood as well. 

More Bailouts"

Another 4 trillion

John Williams of Shadow Statistics has updated his forecast for when we could have a currency crisis and enter into hyperinflation based on the deficits and GAAP (Generally Accepted Accounting Practices) he sees hyperinflation as a distinct possibility within the next 12 months. 

Reality: "Our biggest deficit is a leadership deficit", this according to David Walker.  

Delusion: Secretary of Treasury Geithner says the recession is over. 

 President Obama agrees.  

Upon receiving the Nobel Peace Prize he has focused on adding expenses to our two seven and eight year wars which are looking more and more like Vietnam every day. A good leader would have declared victory, and packed up. I admire the US military, but the bottom line is if Gangas Kahn, Napoleon and Russia couldn't win then a 98 pound dripping wet Commander-in-Chief with no military experience stands no chance at all.  

Bribing the Talaban with US tax dollars isn't going to tip the scales in our favor either.  

He also sees Health Care and Cap and Tax as the most important issues. Two more nails in the nations economic coffin and one giant blundering pallbearers step into the grave itself. 

Is David Walker wrong about the leadership deficit?  

No offense to the Honorable Walker, who I admire and respect a lot, but a statement and actions like these indicate - without a shadow of a doubt - that neither of these names are worthy of the the words "leadership" or "deficit". Well meaning, misguided economically afoul creatures following the Keynesian fairytale of how things worked before they reached critical mass and began imploding - maybe. Delusional - closer. Falling under the ledger column titled insane is probably closer to reality.   

Google "don't let a crisis go to waste" and .28 seconds later the top link out of 7.5 millon search results is White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel. I don't know if his name belongs scribbled in the column of the insane or if he should be nominated for the Nobel Prize of Missing the Biggest Crisis in History. 

Making good, out of a bad crisis, is a super and admirable trait. Of course, the trick is that one has to have the ability to RECOGNIZE a crisis first. When you miss the biggest crisis in the history of the world --- who cares what your crisis motto is. 

In Summary: Instead of assembling a team of the best and brightest (about 25 economic bloggers come to mind) to lead us out of this crisis our president has put together a team of proven failures. Failures with resumes littered with contributions of creating this economic nightmare. Ben Bernake who missed and disputed the biggest bubble in the history of the universe - the housing bubble. His donation of blowing money into that bubble was second only to Sir Alan Greenspan. Larry Summers, nuked Harvard's pension and endowment funds with a billion in derivatives and then jumped in and helped Robert Rubin and Alan Greenspan and Congress muzzle Bixley Born when she advocated derivative regulation. Recall that 1.5 trillion in derivatives blew up the economy in 2008. Remember that wave 2 (Alt-A's and Option Arms, another 1.5 trillion dollar wave is forecasted to reach shore in Q2 of 2010). 

We have 1.6 quadrillion in unregulated derivatives, at least 200 trillion of that resides at banks in the United States. As John Williams states. "You can take 100% of peoples' income and corporate profit and you'd still be in a deficit. There's no way you can raise enough money in taxes. Our total debt is over 12 trillion, we have 106 trillion of debt which is Enronesqly stashed off balance sheet (under the column "certifiably insane") for "unfunded" (read: looted and long since spent by Congress) liabilities. 

And we have "leaders" (read: unwitting financial terrorists) who are doing exactly what they did to blow up the economy. The only difference from before and now is that this time they are calling it a fix this time. 

No peaceful citizen relishes in the fact that they haven't elected the best and the brightest. Somehow I can't picture our forefathers grabbing teabags. When I ask myself what they would have done with these financial terrorist I see the vision of pitchforks and torches.  

But hey: Don't let reality ruin your day. 

Nichoman's picture
Nichoman
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Re: Don't Let Reality Ruin Your Day

Davos,

Your post is impeccable.  Well said.  IMO...as good as any ever made on this web site.

FWIW...as a combat veteran, plus other experiences over 30+ years...President Obama latest actions/inactions after the December 25 incident...added to a dozen others in the past 11 months...clearly demonstrate one critical thing. A person whose character is not capable of growing into, much less deal with, the tough challenges and choices ahead.

A person's character is everything...it defines everything they do.

To say he is over his head may be a huge understatement.

I keep concluding "reality" will replace "extend and pretend" in 2010.  Quite possibly in the form of a dam break. 

Add the questionable competence of the majority of our leaders...wow...disturbing to say the least.

2 cents.

 

Nichoman

pinecarr's picture
pinecarr
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Re: Don't Let Reality Ruin Your Day

Great post, Davos! 

Davos wrote:

    But hey: Don't let reality ruin your day. 

-Unfortunately I think that is exactly the sentiment many others have adopted. And they probably won't acknowledge the reality of our situation until it shows up on their doorstep and bites them personally.  And even then, it may take that same thing happening to some tipping-point-mass of people  before the "group mind" becomes aware and conscious that what's happening to them is beyond the reaility they consider  "normal".  (Talk about a rude awakening!)

-pinecarr

Gungnir's picture
Gungnir
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Re: Don't Let Reality Ruin Your Day
Nichoman wrote:

To say he is over his head may be a huge understatement.

Like a broke gambler to the mafia, he's so far over his head. Bet those concrete boots are hard to walk in. Makes me wonder with the current ineptitude, and the previous ineptitude (which to a stunning surprise I thought couldn't be beaten, yet has been in a single year), whether there should be a "Presidency 101"  test.

Pinecarr, I'm not so sure, I agree on a collective perspective, (see California state workers vs. State of California). However on an individual perspective I've seen a lot of changes in the past six months. Many people who six months ago were saying things, like, it'll pass, it's just a blip, are now saying things like, we did this to get into this mess, so how is it going to get us out of it?

Unfortunately I do think that it's going to come to pitchforks and torches. There are a lot of disgruntled and disillusioned people, and the Federales (bank and government) might be gambling with more than just the countries life.

mooselick7's picture
mooselick7
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Re: Don't Let Reality Ruin Your Day

Davos:

 "(about 25 economic bloggers come to mind)"  Im always on the look out for good economic blogs.  I would like to read your list.

Vanityfox451's picture
Vanityfox451
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Re: Don't Let Reality Ruin Your Day

Hi Moose,

Happy New Year!!!

http://www.google.com/ig/sharetab?source=stb&stid=10941005223742326873311ec071c0adb7298632f22a86c377b32

... and thankyou so much for your inspiring work Davos ...

Best,

Paul

JAG's picture
JAG
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Re: Don't Let Reality Ruin Your Day

Another great post Davos!

To use your words, it was a "super read". 

 

utecity's picture
utecity
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Re: Don't Let Reality Ruin Your Day

Bravo Davos! Great post!

pinecarr's picture
pinecarr
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Re: Don't Let Reality Ruin Your Day
Gungnir wrote:

 Pinecarr, I'm not so sure, I agree on a collective perspective, (see California state workers vs. State of California). However on an individual perspective I've seen a lot of changes in the past six months. Many people who six months ago were saying things, like, it'll pass, it's just a blip, are now saying things like, we did this to get into this mess, so how is it going to get us out of it?  

Hi Gungnir-

   On reflecting on what you said, I realize that my observations were based on my own experiences locally, and (making it even a smaller subset) on my own personal situation.  I live in what was previously considered a depressed area.  So we didn't have a lot of bubbles, based on extravagant excesses, still around to pop.  Our area had already taken a number of such hits over time, prior to the current financial collapse. (Interesting to see, now, how that may have been a blessing in disguise!). 

   Most of the people I know, who had jobs before the financial crisis, still have jobs.  As a result, they have not personnally experienced the impact of the first leg(s) of this financial collapse to the degree that some others have.  So while their immediate worlds are feeling the pinch of the bad economy, they can still be perceived to be within the realm of "normal".  And I think until that changes -until they, or their family members or friends living in places harder hit, are more severely affected- they will hold on to their belief that that things are still normal.  

   But I do see the impacts of our economic troubles starting to invade even our local area.  One friend's husband was laid off as a part of a larger layoff at his company.  A couple of local car dealers have closed, and a chain grocery store.  Our state is in economic trouble... and the state employs a lot of locals around here.  I hear talk from those friends about hiring freezes, and their surprised observation of even some long-term employees' positions being cut.  So I am afraid it won't be too long before individuals I know, too, start to realize "something's wrong".

   best,

   pinecarr

DrKrbyLuv's picture
DrKrbyLuv
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Re: Don't Let Reality Ruin Your Day

Happy new year to all!

Nice article Davos though I would disagree with one part - 

Don't Let Reality Ruin Your Day

I am not referring to the fine people here when I say that I hope reality ruins the day for millions.  There is far too much apathy and ignorance amongst the general population. 

We are being robbed by the international bankers and their corporate buddies and no one seems to care.  They are taking our money and our freedom.  I hope people start to wake up and become informed and angry.  The only reason this is happening is because we allow it.

Larry

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Tserendash
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Re: Don't Let Reality Ruin Your Day

What is going to happen is going to happen.  So prepare for it so you can go on as best you can.

Thomas Hedin's picture
Thomas Hedin
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Re: Don't Let Reality Ruin Your Day

Larry,

Great posting.

 

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