Definancialisation Deglobalisation Relocalisation - Orlov

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pir8don's picture
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Definancialisation Deglobalisation Relocalisation - Orlov

Dmitry has posted the content of his presentation in Ireland earlier this month.
It is an excellent read as always and pertains to much of our discussion here. I won't post it all because its very long.

Heres the link http://cluborlov.blogspot.com/ 

Don

___________________________________________________

Acquiescence by the many to their own inability to comprehend

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Re: Definancialisation Deglobalisation Relocalisation - ...

OK so what happened to all the Orlov fans? This is 31 pages when I printed it and full of insight way beyond almost anyone elses (Yes IMO). Here is what Ran Prier http://www.ranprieur.com/ has to say about it:

Ran wrote:

June 18. Impressive new Dmitry Orlov piece, from a talk and slideshow he gave in Dublin: Definancialisation, Deglobalisation, Relocalisation. If he's right, you can forget yesterday's post, because involuntary energy decline will slash carbon emissions beyond Al Gore's wildest dreams.

Specifically, Orlov argues that when 25% of the global GDP has to be spent on oil, the industrial economy stalls. Right now that comes out to $150 a barrel, which is why we got the collapse last fall. But here's the kicker: every time we get a little collapse, the GDP shrinks, which means the 25% figure shrinks, which means the amount we can spend on oil, without causing another collapse, also shrinks. So we're going to see a series of recoveries and collapses at lower and lower levels, until the industrial economy is not big enough to maintain its own infrastructure.

It's long talk and there's lots of other good stuff in it. I like the bit about how a dieoff can happen with nobody noticing except the workers who process the dead bodies. This must be because most of the deaths are people without friends or family to take care of them. Also I like the stuff in section 18, about how collapse happens one person at a time, and is always mistaken for personal failure. Even if you get out of the collapsing system and thrive, you will be seen as an eccentric loser by people who are still in it.

Its well worth the read, puts almost everything into perspective. I've read the argument (on oil drum?) that the high oil prices killed other(discretionary?) spending and led to this present crisis. Dmitry takes this one step futher and puts it into the context of revolving crisis over time. Brilliant thinking!

Don

 

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Re: Definancialisation Deglobalisation Relocalisation - ...

Come on - what happened to 'inquiring minds'? No video - didums. Wakie wakie. Battle fatigue. Its not even a book. Get with the program. When the going gets tuff the ........

Come out and play

Don

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Re: Definancialisation Deglobalisation Relocalisation - ...

Thanks for the post Don.  I'm crazy busy with work right now, but will read the whole thing when I get a chance (ah, a little light-hearted vacation reading).  But, just from the summary you posted: intuitively, this makes sense to me. 

becky

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Re: Definancialisation Deglobalisation Relocalisation - ...

Thanks thanks thanks Becky. I'm overjoyed. I got a bite. I'll stop slathering now and try to calm down.

Don

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Re: Definancialisation Deglobalisation Relocalisation - ...

DH and I read this the other day -- I found it through Sharon Astyk's blog and she raved over it as well, quite humorously, actually.

DH was quite struck by it (and I'm always happy when he's willing to read these viewpoints, we're not entirely on the same page about the imminence or magnitude of the breakdown heading our way).

I struggle with a sense of hopelessness reading such dire predictions, which makes me want to argue it away, and I recognize that urge. That said, I'm not sure it's accurate to say that the financial crisis we're in was triggered primarily by the skyrocketing price of oil. From all I've read here and elsewhere, there were incredibly complex financial risk and debt-related reasons for this collapse. He didn't begin to address that, besides alluding that we needed to go into debt to afford more expensive oil.

His voice is priceless, and his dismissal of hoarding gold and stockpiling survival needs was bitingly funny as always, but I'm still inclined to find value in doing a bit of both, myself.

I toggle back and forth between a sense of temporary complacency (brought on by noticing that life seems to be going on as always around me, and my husband's pointing out of same) and somewhat frantic urges to take more dramatic steps to prepare. Orlov's piece leaves me in the latter frame of mind, and I suppose it's good to have a fire lit under oneself every little while....

 

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Re: Definancialisation Deglobalisation Relocalisation - ...

Hey Don-

   Sorry not to respond sooner; I was unable to get on the PeakProsperity.com  website earlier this afternoon/evening.  Did it crash for a while, or was I the only one experiencing the problem?

   Anyhow, I thought the Orlov article was a great read, and wanted to thank you for posting the link to it. I printed out and read the whole thing; it is well worth it!  

   I really enjoy Orlov's writing; he's very insightful, and I find it very interesting to read his thoughts on what may be in our future.   I also find it very interesting how similar his line of thought is with Chris's; both seem to come to the conclusion that our current way of life has a limited shelf-life (future), and that we need to work towards a less complex, more sustainable, community-oriented way of life.  And they both bring more than one dimension into their thinking on our current situation: not just the economy, but also peak oil and resource shortages.  I like how Orlov also expresses concern for preservation of species (including our own) and the larger environment.

   Orlov also makes some great observations about the power of societal group-think (he calls it something else) and the types of personalities that tend to prepare vs those who don't.  I think this would resonate with a lot of the folks here!!

   Thanks for sharing, Don!

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Re: Definancialisation Deglobalisation Relocalisation - ...

Sue

I gave up reading Sharon cause it took too much time but you sent me off to read this time and its as good as you say. Very short though. Didn't trust herself to write more. Pity - could have been even more interesting. Something about the way Dmitry writes does this to people. It does it to me too. I'd have to unstraighten myself though to go where she is headed. Also has the other effect you mention of motivating. His fire does burn.

He says he is not into financials and neither am I really but I cling to the belief that the simplest explanation is the best and this ones fairly simple. Complexity has become a fudging tool used with great elaquity by controlling people or those that aspire to be. Engaging with it seems a short path to bewilderment and never-ending dissagreements. Just have to read the inflation-deflation threads to see that.

His time scale leaves room for contemplation but. A couple of decades of collapse. Eats some of the urgency.

Don

 

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Re: Definancialisation Deglobalisation Relocalisation - ...

Thanks Pinecarr.

I too got a bit of a fright a few hours ago when I first logged in. The site had rolled back to April. Left me hoping they hadn't lost more recent backups. All those important thoughts!

Yes its really stimulating to get a fresh perspective now and then especially one (like Chris's) that melds it all into a believable framework. Like Sue and Sharon I seem to get a real rush from such instight. Just at the needed time too when all the complexity is weaving its dark magic. 

Its nice to see ourselves outside the group think and be able to explain the prevalent dissbelief (in our reality) in terms that make it both more bearable and understandable. Knowledge is power. Is it really better to be a human dissatisfied than a pig satisfied though? 

Don

 

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Re: Definancialisation Deglobalisation Relocalisation - ...

You're welcome Don!  But, really thank you.

I also encountered some weirdness with this website today.  Seems to be fixed now.  Just a reminder of how important this site is to me.

I think that the risky financial situation  put this country and others in a vulnerable position and the rise in fuel costs last year pushed us over the edge, so to speak.  It's kind of like an individual household that's been less than smart with money.  If there is suddenly a major change (like an increase in medical expenses), all the other financial problems get bigger and sort of feed off one another.

I don't think anybody will ever convince me to cease stockpiling.  It's in my nature.  It would be easier to convince the squirrels to stop hoarding nuts.

becky

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Re: Definancialisation Deglobalisation Relocalisation - ...

Thanks Don for the Dmitry update. I originally became a fan of his when you posted a video of one of his speeches about 6 months back. Whether the collapse that he forecasts comes to pass or not, I find great value in his vision of the no-money, natural way of life. If you could be inspired by poverty, and the "riches" that it brings, Dimtry is the man to lead you there.

Thanks again for the update.

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Re: Definancialisation Deglobalisation Relocalisation - ...

Hi Becky-

   Yeah, I agree re the stockpiling!  It's at least something empowering that we can do, and I think there are a lot of scenarios where that could make a difference.  So I too will keep stockpiling, while continuing to take actions to move more and more towards sustainability. 

Don wrote:

Its nice to see ourselves outside the group think and be able to explain the prevalent dissbelief (in our reality) in terms that make it both more bearable and understandable. Knowledge is power. Is it really better to be a human dissatisfied than a pig satisfied though? 

Don, that's a big question!!  If things don't really fall apart for quite a while, we sweat out those months or years while others live happily along without the burden of these worries, or the time spent in actions in response to them.  I was actually quite happy to see Orlov come right out and speak to that, saying that the aware person has to actually choose to bring the pain on earlier (proactively).  The alternative is waiting until the pain hits in its own time, and then being forced to face it reactively, when so many of the opportunities still available to us now have been lost!  I thought that was well said. 

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Re: Definancialisation Deglobalisation Relocalisation - ...

Perhaps we have a worry quotient that will fill up anyhow. We can at least tell ourselves that we have the moral high ground because we are worrying the big issues.  Whats clear though is that once we 'believe' then we have little choice and that seems to include preparing. It probably has more psychological value than other.

What do I do with all this wheat that is now approaching five years old. We've used up almost all the coffee beans OK and that went really well. Cheap green beans will never be that cheap again. Can't afford to buy another five years supply though (50kg). Maybe max the credit card but my nature won't let me. Fortunately the wheat is cheap. As time gets on my definition of survival is almost constantly being rewritten closer to the floor.

Don

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Re: Definancialisation Deglobalisation Relocalisation - ...
pir8don wrote:

As time gets on my definition of survival is almost constantly being rewritten closer to the floor.

Don

The floor ain't so bad IMO.  Untold generations lived on it.  It'll do okay.  Though I'll miss the 'Net if it comes to that...

Viva -- Sager

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Re: Definancialisation Deglobalisation Relocalisation - ...

I'm a big fan or Orlov. I can't get enough of his writings and eagerly await new posts to show up on my RSS reader. He didn't disappoint with his latest presentation. I appreciate that he gives specifics on how to approach life given a future that will be so different from anything we currently know. He makes me feel OK about doing the bare minimum to hold onto my well paying, but ultimately pointless job while I spend my energies on preparing for a very different future. He certainly lights my fire :)

LMRL

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Re: Definancialisation Deglobalisation Relocalisation - ...

Dmitry has put up an errata. He had claimed that oil had to reach 25% of GDP. He meant energy and that translates to 6%. The argument is still the same just the figures change. I found his argument for crash cycles to be one of his most innovate pieces of his thinking.

Dmitry wrote:

economic recovery -> oil price spike -> economic crash. Repeat as often as it takes to learn the lesson: no more growth is possible.

It makes more sense of recent 'green shoots'. It also gives us a model to compare the future (and maybe the past) with.

Don

 

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