Cycles in Oil Prices

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RayTomes's picture
RayTomes
Status: Bronze Member (Offline)
Joined: May 20 2009
Posts: 67
Cycles in Oil Prices

Before the last oil price peak, the following analysis of oil price cycles was made http://www.cyclesresearchinstitute.org/journal/CRI200511-oilprices.pdf

There have been past analysis of oil cycles that generally reported 5 to 6 year cycles. I found a 5.54 year average cycle and predicted a high for January 2008 which was a few months out. The next cycle should peak about mid 2013 or a little after. That will be the one that hits the really high prices because it is also a 30 year cycle peak.

In the referenced report the 30 year cycle was only speculated on because of too short a time period. However a much longer data base subsequently found shows that the 30 year cycle can be traced back hundreds of years. The USA has been engaged in expensive major wars every 30 years ... 1910s, 1940s, 1970s, 2000s. Of course the USA has been engaged in new wars almost continuously and is by far the most agressive nation on Earth, but I am just talking about the really expensive ones here.

 

signalfire's picture
signalfire
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Posts: 34
Re: Cycles in Oil Prices

Cycles????  Ever heard of Peak Oil? We're past peak, we're heading on the very slippery slope downward now. Last quote I heard was over 9% less oil a year, every year.

RayTomes's picture
RayTomes
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Joined: May 20 2009
Posts: 67
Re: Cycles in Oil Prices
signalfire wrote:

Cycles????  Ever heard of Peak Oil? We're past peak, we're heading on the very slippery slope downward now. Last quote I heard was over 9% less oil a year, every year.

The existence of a phenomenon called peak oil does not alter the fact that cycles continue to occur.

If you were right that cycles were not relevant, then why has the price of oil dropped so much from the peak? I am telling you that it will likely go to a new high in late 2013. My guess is $300/b vicinity.

 

pleaseremoveme's picture
pleaseremoveme
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Joined: Jan 24 2009
Posts: 115
Re: Cycles in Oil Prices

Reminds me of bible codes: secret messages hidden in the bible, if you look at letter written many symbols appart.

RayTomes's picture
RayTomes
Status: Bronze Member (Offline)
Joined: May 20 2009
Posts: 67
Re: Cycles in Oil Prices
woupiestek wrote:

Reminds me of bible codes: secret messages hidden in the bible, if you look at letter written many symbols appart.

What an uninformed comment.

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