Crisis Simulation - Day= -1

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Crisis Simulation - Day= -1

Hi Everyone, is anyone interested in participating in this mental exercise?

Objective:

The objective of this thread is to simulate an unfolding crisis, as a means of brainstorming (identifying) the prudent actions we should all take as individuals if such a crisis should occur. In my experience (hurricanes), its very important to be one step ahead of the crowd when a crisis unfolds. But it can be difficult in the middle of a panic to think clearly, so I thought it might be prudent to give this some thought now and make a check-list of personal priorities that we could simply execute if needed at some point in the future. 

Methodology:

The simulation will be broken down into Days, beginning with this thread representing the day before a crisis occurs (Day= -1). Each day will be represented by a new thread (Crisis Simulation Day=#) and each new thread will provide the following information:

  • Simulated News: This represents the news that you might see on TV, hear on the radio, or hear via word of mouth.
  • Simulated Circumstances and Events: This represents something that might occur on that particular day in your personal life (including family circle) or in your community, or at national level.

Your mission (should you choose to except it Laughing) is to process this information and provide feedback as to what you would or should do in this situation. Our objective should be to define a set of priorities for each day of the simulation, and establish a blue-print or check list of actions to take. 

If this mental exercise proves fruitful, I will then convert each thread into a PDF, so that each person can download it from my server, print it out, and have it as a reference if such a crisis were to occur in their life. I hope everyone will participate.

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                                                                                                Crisis Simulation - Day= -1

Simulated News:

  • The price of gold and silver just spiked 18% higher this morning and overnight. Silver is up 10%.
  • The stock market is volatile, with large swings up and down on high volume.
  • A friend of yours tells you that her husband, an officer in the Army, was called to the local base unexpectedly.
  • Chris Martenson sends out an alert that "something is not right", but he is not sure what it is yet.

Simulated Circumstances and Events:

  • Nothing unusual, just a typical day in your life.
  • You have made some general preparations: you have over a month's supply of food, some cash at home, some cash and PM's in a safe deposit box at your local bank, and you have $40 in your wallet/purse.

Based on this information, what should you do? What actions do you take, if any? What is the most important action, what is the least important action (prioritize)?

Thanks for your input, and sorry for the long post....Jeff

 

 

 

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Re: Crisis Simulation - Day= -1

Based on this information, I would hope to do the following:

  1. Go to the bank, withdraw some funds, and withdraw my cash and PM's from my safe deposit box and anything else I might value. I would them bring the contents straight home and secure them, maybe making a few trips if the contents were quite valuable to minimize the risks of "carrying all my (nest) eggs in one basket".
  2. Fill up the vehicles with gasoline.
  3. Take a quick inventory of my pantry, and make (or update) a list of needed items.
  4. Go to the grocery store and do my normal shopping, maybe buy a few things for the pantry if they are on sale.
  5. Take a few minutes to check the vehicles, and perhaps the generator, and perform any needed maintenance.
  6. Spend a little time online to see what is "going on".

Given this particular (rather everyday) scenario, what am I missing or overlooking? 

Thanks for your input....Jeff

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Re: Crisis Simulation - Day= -1

4Gs

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Re: Crisis Simulation - Day= -1
Davos wrote:

4Gs

Oh yes, and pray.

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Re: Crisis Simulation - Day= -1

Or stock up.Cool

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Re: Crisis Simulation - Day= -1

Jeff:

Consider "fracturing" of our government.

Example:  Last night, had an extended, productive personal face-to-face conversation with our State Auditor.  Lets just say many in the government know we will go bankrupt.   Its a given...but not enough are able, willing to do anything both at federal level and state.   Watch actions, chaos.

Another...the Federal Reserve is coming to visit Eastern Iowa.   This is a first anyone can remember.  Why?  (I'm attending).

Here's a third, were having an emergency town hall meeting next week.

A fourth, this past week, involved in discussions with many of the most reputable Climate Change scientists .  Counted 7 explanations (!) in just one dialog.  That's a record in my 30+ yr recall by scientists.   Also...not good.

Dovetail this with post earlier of...

Observation

Consider a section described "Societal Environment" to frame two sections.

In combat days and 2 natural disasters...this was primary modular to decisions taken...successes were those who understood and accounted for this.

Hope this helps.

Nichoman

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Re: Crisis Simulation - Day= -1

I would alert the people that will come to my house to be ready and or prepare to depart....

Btw I have also collected a lot of first aid items such as neosporin, band aids  of all sizes mostly large and hydrogen peroxide etc.  nk:)

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Re: Crisis Simulation - Day= -1

Here's some quick thoughts of what would be going through my mind upon Jeff's simulated events.

  1. I'd start with a "dam I should have been better prepared."  I've done much to prepare but I haven't done enough.
  2. Get anything valuable out of the safety deposit box (I don't store PMs there, but it was part of Jeff's simulation).
  3. While at the bank I would drain down my account in fear of a banking holiday.
  4. Do some last minute shopping for food, water and ammo.
  5. Convert some of the leftover money into PM coins. 
  6. Check my list of reliable news and analysis sources for more info.
  7. Warn relatives and close friends.
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Re: Crisis Simulation - Day= -1

I would also add the following couple of things.

Memorize my family's schedule for the next couple days and be prepared to cut out anything non essential.

Make sure I have lots of TP on hand (if not add that to the shopping list).  Might need to clean out my pants.

Stop by the liquor store and pick up some high proof booze if its not already in the house(for drinking, cleaning, disinfecting wounds, burning for heat or fuel, etc)

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Re: Crisis Simulation - Day= -1

Thanks everyone for the replies. I really believe this could be a great learning tool.

I do want to emphasize that your replies should be relative to the information provided. Right now, in this simulation, all we have is an inkling that something is up, but it could be nothing for all we know at this point.. 

Tomorrow, on Day 1 of this Crisis Simulation (today is "Day minus 1"), you will have more information that may justify some of the more extensive actions that have been suggested so far. I figure at the hint of trouble, what I really need is to understand what I might need to have (and to do) if this crisis materializes. 

DrKrbyLuv's responses:

1) I'd start with a "dam I should have been better prepared."  I've done much to prepare but I haven't done enough. (LOL...me too)

and

7) Warn relatives and close friends.

 

I think are relevant/prudent at this stage of the simulation, as well as bklement's 

Memorize my family's schedule for the next couple days and be prepared to cut out anything non essential.

Thanks....I hadn't thought of those.

Oh BTW, tomorrow this simulation gets a lot more interesting......stay tuned.

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Re: Crisis Simulation - Day= -1

I would add that if you require any prescription drugs, you should probably have those refilled, too.

Have your doctor write a prescription for a 3-month supply of the drug and order them from a prescription service.  It's usually cheaper, and it allows you to stock up a bit instead of getting them once a month, just in time.

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Re: Crisis Simulation - Day= -1

   Are we talking a week or two without  electricity and water ?  If so people with  families should make sure all the laundry is caught up .  Nothing fun about catching up  nor  doing it on a scrub board .

Paper plates etc. ,   also cards , books , games , puzzles . That much time  with no electricity ...... well leads to creative ways to stay entertained .

 When we are without power  that long in the winter  refrigeration is not a problem  but everyone is ready for bed by 8 .  In the summer we have the freezers to keep frozen  but can find work to keep busy .

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Re: Crisis Simulation - Day= -1
Full Moon wrote:

 Are we talking a week or two without  electricity and water ?  

We don't know yet.

But to get the laundry done seems like a reasonable suggestion at this stage. Maybe do a few extra loads.

Thanks

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Re: Crisis Simulation - Day= -1

We have had some semi day -1 scenarios already (except, so far as I know, the military part). So,  if gold spiked $150 in one day/overnight and the other stuff was happening? On day -1 I would get more $ out of the bank, fill up my several 55 gallon drums with fresh water, go to the grocery store for more supplies/food/TP, go ahead and buy several 5 gallon fuel containers and fill up with gas/diesel so we would have enough fuel to get well away, think about what should be in the vehicles, if that is the turns out to be thing to do, think about what else needs to be done around the house, if that is the thing to do. Give a heads up to friends, relatives, stay tuned to the news.

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Re: Crisis Simulation - Day= -1
propamanda wrote:

I would add that if you require any prescription drugs, you should probably have those refilled, too.

Excellent...Thanks.

Might be a good idea to make that doctors appointment if you do need to refill your prescription meds. It could take a few days to get the appointment and get the refill, so this seems appropriate.

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Re: Crisis Simulation - Day= -1

1.  Take about a grand outta the bank.

2.  Go to the supermarket & stock up on food, TP, etc..  (using debit card)

3.  Hit the health food co-op:  ditto, but for organic veggies, etc.  

4.  Top off the cars' gas tanks.  Also fill the several 5-gal jugs we have (usually for lawnmower/edger/chainsaw, but...).

5.  Go back to health food store, stock up on herbal remedies, etc.  (thanks to this exercise, I won't make 2 trips...Tongue out)

6.  Call my bro (who's a 4-hour drive away), catch up on news re the Eagles/Phillies, talk about his kids...and then at some point nonchalantly drop in "yeah, when the FIRE economy tanks you know ya'll really oughta just pack up the minivan and come stay with us".  He'll think I'm joking (in that way that gives him the squicks, but he loves me anyhoo cuz I'm his brother).  But when Crisis Day +4 arrives, he won't think twice (he's a GE exec...they're trained to evaluate data & then ACT...[why isn't he onboard already?  Denial is a potent force, ya'lls!])...

7.  Call my cousin (only other family within 1500 miles) and just tell her flat-out that if anything funky goes down she oughta figure out how to get to us (we're a 2-hour bus ride away).  She'll think I'm nuts, but I reckon she already thinks that...

8.  Also purchase:  candles, matches, batteries, vitamins, "green" powder supplements, battery-operated radio, some oil for chainsaw (both chain oil and the 2-stroke engine oil)...

Lord only knows there's probably more I'd think of.  But this'd keep me busy for the entire "-1" day...

Viva -- Sager

P.S.  JAG:  superlative thread idea.  I'm totally in awe, man.

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Re: Crisis Simulation - Day= -1

Most of these are from my own existing checklist BTW:

1- (Most Important) Halt all credit card use and pay the balance immediately (it's low since I haven't been using it much), and withdraw all money from the bank except for enough to cover the automatic debits and immediate expenses for the month, like my student loan and cellphone bills (in reality I've been doing this for months now, as my credit union has a high troubled asset ratio I'm not comfortable with).  Maybe paying off the credit card balance very early sounds counterintuitive, but I have plenty of cash saved up already and who knows what kind of nightmare confusion will reign in the credit card industry.

2- Take my belongings from the safety deposit box and lock them in the safe at home for the time being.

3- Set aside a certain amount of cash in a safe place to be used only in emergencies, leaving the rest for whatever shopping we deem reasonable (again, this is something in reality we've already done)

4- Ensure vehicle gas tanks are at least 3/4 full, and buy 2 extra 5 gallon gas cans.  10 gallons would be enough to get me home from my work location should gas become unavailable.

5- Go grocery shopping like usual, except buying a little extra of everything to fill up the freezer and fridge.  Also get some extra fruits and vegetables, ones that will keep for a little while (with some exceptions, most fresh fruits and veggies need to be imported to Alaska).

6- Stock up a little more on what ammo is available, and make a list of guns to buy if the situation escalates further.  Most likely to include an extra shotgun, handgun, and rifle of calibers I already use and have extra ammo for.  This is in part an investment, but mostly for backups for my own collection (if something breaks) or for close friends or family who later might have a need for a firearm but cannot get one (due to either unavailability or lack of funds).

7- Purchase and fill an extra 5 gal. propane tank for my indoor-safe propane heater (least important, as this is only a short term solution and we have other places to stay with wood-burning stoves).

8- Take some of the discretionary cash that is left and put into whatever PM's are available.

9- Review food and prep supplies inventory and make a list of anything we forgot that we could conceivably need for the next few months, to be bought if more warning signs show up in the next few weeks.

10- Spread the word to family and friends that something funny is happening, and to ensure they have enough cash and food on hand to get by for a little while.  Some will probably go, "yeah whatever", but hopefully some will take at least a few steps.

Basically, for me this stage is primarily a warning to get prepared for immediate action and watch for a worsening situation.  Most substantial actions involved at this point are financial.

- Nickbert

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Re: Crisis Simulation - Day= -1

Funny how being really prepared makes one's choices so different....

If I thought "the crisis" had finally arrived, I would drive to my supplier and buy a dozen bags of chicken feed. Then I would immediately plant at least one third of that so that by the time the remainder runs out I have a crop to feed them with and replant for later.

This, as it turns out is exactly what my next major project is anyhow, and the only reason I haven't yet done so is because I'm hanging out for some rain...... the 1/4 inch we got yesterday just doesn't cut it!

Mike

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Re: Crisis Simulation - Day= -1

Put out several tons of hay for the beeves.

Check and maybe change locks on diesel storage tanks.

start a fire(stop burnin' fuel oil as tractors make better use)

mix a whiskey sour, put on a coat and watch the sun set.

check heifers at dark as they're calvin',7bull calves and 4 heifers so far this year with 49 to go.

 

Robie

close gate and turn guard dogs loose 

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Re: Crisis Simulation - Day= -1

Hmmm...not seeing a post I thought I put up earlier.

Seems like you all have put together a pretty good list.  Here are a couple more I thought of.

Replace the "borrowed" items in the barter stock: I've got wine, but think maybe hard liquor gives more bang for the buck.  Some other things I've thought of: aspirin and band-aids, reading glasses (can you tell my age?) and some novels; lipstick; toothpaste, can openers.For rererence, review "100 items to disappear first" and "From a Sarajevo War Survivor" (thanks Stpaulmercantile - http://www.peakprosperity.com/forum/interesting-article-what-some-people... - ).

Check supply of batteries, candles, matches, butane lighters with extra fluid.  The dark is no fun. Charcoal and lighter fluid;

For those going somewhere rather than staying: Double check the bug-out kits and replace the "borrowed" items. If you have kids, get those size two jammies changed out for the now-applicable size 4; place bags by the door. Make sure you include a copy of your financial info that Chris had us put together a few weeks ago.

Lori

 

 

 

 

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Day Minus 1 Summary and Checklist

Thanks again everyone for your input. I have summarized the Day Minus 1 checklist below:

  1. Go to the bank, withdraw some funds, and withdraw my cash and PM's from my safe deposit box and anything else I might value. I would them bring the contents straight home and secure them, maybe making a few trips if the contents were quite valuable to minimize the risks of "carrying all my (nest) eggs in one basket".
  2. Fill up the vehicles with gasoline and maybe a few extra gas containers.
  3. Take a quick inventory of my pantry, and make (or update) a list of needed items.
  4. Go to the grocery store and do my normal shopping, maybe buy a few things for the pantry if they are on sale.
  5. Top-off ammo supplies if you own guns.
  6. Take a few minutes to check the vehicles, and perhaps the generator, and perform any needed maintenance.
  7. If you or family take prescription medications, inquire about getting a 3 month supply or refill.
  8. Memorize my family's schedule for the next couple days and be prepared to cut out anything non essential.
  9. Contact family and friends and share your concerns with them. If appropriate make plans to meet up in advanced in case communications become difficult.
  10. Charge all batteries and battery powered equipment.
  11. Get the laundry done and other household chores that require electricity.
  12. Store some fresh water at home.
  13. If you have chickens or livestock, stock-up on feed if needed.
  14. Spend a little time online to see what is "going on".

You can download this checklist in PDF by clicking here and print it if you so desire.

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Re: Crisis Simulation - Day= -1

Sorry I didn't add anything.  Was a bit busy but I'm still waiting for Day 1.

Was wondering if there was any other "signs" that would be appropriate to look for on the day before a crash?  I think the first "signs" are as important to understand as what needs done when they're realized/seen.

Thanks!

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Re: Crisis Simulation - Day= -1

Great idea, Jeff.

 

Guess you finished "One Second  After", LOL.

 

I would charge all rechargeable batteries, cell phones, and laptop batteries, set out any solar items like flashlights to charge, and make sure you have lamp oil for those Aladdins . Get those hand crankself-powered items ready. Make a rendezvous plan with family.

 

Just off the top of my head. Undoubtedly more will occur.

 

SG

 

 

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Re: Crisis Simulation - Day= -1
capesurvivor wrote:

Guess you finished "One Second  After", LOL.

I was wondering when you would come across this thread. Holy cow what a great and awful story....Thanks for the reco...I think? LOL

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Re: Crisis Simulation - Day= -1

Firearms cleaned, checked, and loaded. That includes:

A sidearm, a shotgun, and a tactical rifle.

Check security around the homestead. Is the house secure? If you were an intruder, and knowing your dwelling as well as you do, where would YOU approach to gain access?

Watch uninformed neighbors and observe their behaviour. How are they acting? Are they agitated? The type that might panic?

What have you done to assure that your place does not stick out? Do you have a plan to seal off air circulation when cooking?

Mmmmmm, food! My daughters haven't eaten in days. I'd kill for a cup of beans right now.

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Re: Crisis Simulation - Day= -1

Funny --

60 Minutes did a story tonight about the vulnerability of the power grid (and other major infrastructure) to hackers and suchlike.  

Life rhymes (if you listen).

Viva -- Sager

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Re: Crisis Simulation - Day= -1

Saw that 60 min. and was going to post also.  It sounded like" when', not "if".

And they wouldn''t even need the 2 or 3 nukes for the EMP.

Electricity is a toughie; I'm trying to figure out a way to use solar to power the thermostat/trigger for my oil burner. I don't know how long oil would be available but why should lose use of my heating system if the electricity goes down? They should sell a simple kit to cover that eventuality.

Oh, don't forget to buy a solar shower, small black plastic bag  you let heat up and then use to shower. Probably could make with black plastic bag if necessary but why?

 

SG

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Re: Crisis Simulation - Day= -1

I don't see much written about involving kids, which of course all depends on their ages and how much they've been informed. One thing that occurred to me last night as I lay pondering these two threads, bemoaning the fact that we are in suburbia which seems to be the worst place to be living right now; is to use day -1 to remind my kids of something I taught them years ago to ensure I can get unquestioned cooperation in the event of an emergency.

To explain, we are homeschoolers and years ago in our state there was hint of trouble and arrests of homeschoolers and kids taken to foster homes. I made a plan with my kids, explaining that sometimes there are emergencies where I might need them to do something *without* them questioning or hesitating: I simply say Red Light. Everything after that is a command and they are to drop everything and anything and do what I ask immediately. When I say Green Light, emergency is over and they will get an explanation. (The plan was to send them via back door to a neighbor's if authorities showed up at the front.)

It's simple and can be taught without making it scary - we made it a game, taking walks and I would say Red Light and they'd have to follow my instructions till I relieved them with Green Light. It can be useful if we suddenly need them to pack a bag or help in some way without needing to explain why they have to get off the computer *now.*

Saffron

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Re: Crisis Simulation - Day= -1

 Saffron , Thank you for sharing this idea ,  it could come in handy in many situations .   I have really  let my guard down in the passed 25 years .  It  sure would not hurt  to do  a dry run several times .

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Re: Crisis Simulation - Day= -1
Saffron wrote:

I don't see much written about involving kids, which of course all depends on their ages and how much they've been informed. One thing that occurred to me last night as I lay pondering these two threads, bemoaning the fact that we are in suburbia which seems to be the worst place to be living right now; is to use day -1 to remind my kids of something I taught them years ago to ensure I can get unquestioned cooperation in the event of an emergency.

To explain, we are homeschoolers and years ago in our state there was hint of trouble and arrests of homeschoolers and kids taken to foster homes. I made a plan with my kids, explaining that sometimes there are emergencies where I might need them to do something *without* them questioning or hesitating: I simply say Red Light. Everything after that is a command and they are to drop everything and anything and do what I ask immediately. When I say Green Light, emergency is over and they will get an explanation. (The plan was to send them via back door to a neighbor's if authorities showed up at the front.)

It's simple and can be taught without making it scary - we made it a game, taking walks and I would say Red Light and they'd have to follow my instructions till I relieved them with Green Light. It can be useful if we suddenly need them to pack a bag or help in some way without needing to explain why they have to get off the computer *now.*

Saffron

My own rugrat isn't even old enough to walk yet, but in a couple years I will take this to heart and put it to use.  Great advice.... thank you.

- Nickbert

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Re: Crisis Simulation - Day= -1

Saffron,

Thanks for the post....I talked to my wife last night about your suggestion and we both agreed it was a good idea. My daughter is only two, but when she is old enough to understand we will definitely employ your suggestion. My wife also said that her parents used a "secret" word so that if anyone outside of the family ever asked them to go with them or do something, they were instructed not to do it if the other person didn't know the secret word. If the other person did say the secret word, then the kids knew that the parents knew what was going on and that it was ok to comply.

Thanks for your input...Jeff

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