The Crash Course

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Plasybryn's picture
Plasybryn
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Joined: Jan 22 2012
Posts: 1
The Crash Course

Just finished reading the book. Excellant read. Not totally convinced about the timing of  "Peak Oil". Seems there is still a lot out there. New finds now in Somalia and that doesn't include overshore fields yet. (See Range Resources)

Twenty years ago I read "Beyond the limits" by Donella Meadows, Dennis Meadows & Jorgen Randers (sequel to the famous "The limits of growth")

I wish I knew if the work on the computer model, involving the MIT and The Club of Rome was ever carried forward. The Crash Course seems like a sequel, but the elements discussed haven't been input to an updated computer model as far as I know to predict current critical limit points.

grondeau's picture
grondeau
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Joined: Nov 10 2008
Posts: 35
Dynamic models

 Plasybryn,  

You might find the commentary on Limits to Growth that happened a couple of years ago on The Oil Drum of interest. http://www.theoildrum.com/node/3551  -  Read the comments as well...  Lots of good stuff there.

These days, one of the more interesting applications to dynamic modeling is Steve Keen's economic models.  Also worth your time. http://www.debtdeflation.com/blogs/

In general, dynamic models should not be taken as "predictions" but rather as attempts to understand the underlying dynamics.  Exactly when peak oil is due, or when serious debt deflation begins, is almsot impossible to predict becuase there are so many interacting factors that will change the trajectory of the coarse of events, but that such events will happen, given present trends, can be illustrated with such models.  Just because we had twenty years of low oil prices and seemingly unendding prosperity following the publisihng of Limits to Growth did not make it's conclusions any less true!

 

 

Damnthematrix's picture
Damnthematrix
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Joined: Aug 10 2008
Posts: 3998
Start Topic The word "sustainable" is insustainable
A webcomic of romance,sarcasm, math, and language.
 
Sustainable

Sustainable

Permanent link to this comic: http://xkcd.com/1007/

 

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