Continuing Claims - The FUZZIEST number

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malpert
Status: Member (Offline)
Joined: Oct 9 2008
Posts: 18
Continuing Claims - The FUZZIEST number

 FUZZY NUMBER - Perhaps the fuzziest of them all.

Continuing Jobless Claims. Wow.  

The Bottom line:  Continuing Claims only includes claims under Regular State programs (approx. 6 months of coverage).  Continuing Claims (as reported by the media) excludes all claims filed under Federal Programs and extended state programs.

After Regular State claims expire, the jobless then roll into the federal program (EUC 2008 passed in July 2008 by GW Bush and expanded in February by the Obama stimulus package).  The federal coverage now lasts for approximately another 6 months.  After the federal benefits expire, individuals may be available for additional weeks of extended state benefits.  Neither of these categories are included in the 6.2 million continuing claims reported last week.

How many claims are excluded from the data?

Federal EUC:  2,632,361

Extended State Programs: 359,986

These categories are both reported weekly by the Department of Labor in the same report as the Regular State program, however, the DOL didn't take the next step of adding them all up!

Well, this week a member of the AP took that step.

The AP reported last week  that the total claims (NSA) is 9.1MM

http://www.philly.com/philly/wires/ap/business/economic_figures/20090723_ap_weakrecoverytoprovidelittlereliefforjobless.html

I've been tracking claims data each week, but had made an assumption that these programs were included in the report, not additive to it.  After all, an elephant this large couldn't be sitting right there in front of me?  Is it even possible???

Well, since there were ZERO claims under federal programs until July 2008 (it didn't exist prior) and ZERO extended state benefits until June 2008, it is possible.

I did a quick chart of total claims vs regular state-funded claims using the Department of Labor reports.  

Of course, while the "green shoot" reported claims have leveled off, total claims, as it turns out, are steadily rising.

malpert's picture
malpert
Status: Member (Offline)
Joined: Oct 9 2008
Posts: 18
Re: Continuing Claims - The FUZZIEST number

Mish posted on this July 10th

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2009/07/unemployment-claims-how-bad-are-real.html

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