Collapse scenario(s)?

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pir8don's picture
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Collapse scenario(s)?

http://grunes.wordpress.com/2007/03/07/joki-jarmo-lampela-2001/ is a Finnish film called Joki (the river) available with English subtitles. I watched this film earlier this year and have been haunted by it since. Normally I would not wish to impose my distress on others but this film resonated for me with one collapse scenario. The scenario is that portrayed by Dmitry Orlov http://cluborlov.blogspot.com/.

On our CM site there have been a number of discussions centered on collapse and timing. Our understanding of collapse progress and process are very varied and it is clear that no single event may characterise the collapse and that collapse may be, or is, much more personal than public for the majority of us.

The link to the film above gives the best review in English that I have been able to find. What is depicted is a small Finnish town whose inhabitants are to varying degrees in dire circumstances. It follows a variety of characters who are linked although not strongly. This variety gives us a good feel for living in this place. As in Dmitry's depiction we have the only workers those providing alcohol, entertainment or fast food. We find the men in stages of alcoholism increasing with age. Mature women struggle to maintain the processes of living but are often thwarted by alcoholism. Social isolation is prevalent. A young mother is forced to attempt suicide by circumstances and the lack of concern of those around her.   

What the film best depicts for me is the lack of real community and selfish hopelessness that pervades the town. Each person struggles alone or at best with very few others to deal with the realities of their lives in collapse. A nice backdrop to the film is the locally ignored but explosive sound of fighter jets overflying the town as they break the sound barrier. We get the feeling of a distant government spending heaps on military hardware with just enough social welfare to keep its people from starvation or death by disease or injury.

Why I draw attention to the film and its sad message is the obvious alternative of cooperation that is not at all obvious to those living the collapse. For the suicidal mother there are only two social interactions during the days leading to her ultimate act. One person delivers a paper through her letterbox and another acquantance promises to visit sometime but doesn't. She lives in a small unfurnished apartment and people are everywhere around her. Relationships have degenerated to something very close to begging for human interaction. At some time in the past there may have been  charity but its long gone. From the homes we can see that there has been affluence but in its passing has been exposed  a raw, soul destroying paucity of humanity. Everyone knows but no one cares. A culture of selfish greed has pervaded peoples lives during good times and allows of no alternative in the bad.

We may be powerless to influence the financial and political forces surrounding us but we have the power to cooperate within our communities or localities. Are we destined to walk the narrow path to oblivion so clearly marked out for us?

Don

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Re: Collapse scenario(s)?

Hey Don, I think I saw that film at Festival... sounds really familiar in any case.

Being my usual uncheery and slightly pessimistic self, I don't think this scenario will be the only thing that happens. I think there will be people who thrive and blossom in the isolation. I think there will be communities who pull together and take care of each other. But, yes, I do think that a large proportion of our population are probably going to end up in this particular handbasket to Hell.  I actually don't think these percentages are really all that new... at least not post-Industrial Era new. Seems like the underpinnings of true community started to deteriorate when we all moved to the cities to work with machines. I think the only people who are truly going to be able to survive and thrive post-TSHTF are the rare few who can adapt to radical change - either through self-sufficiency or pulling together as a community. 

The remaining 50-75% will spiral down into denial, depression and desperation, ultimately death by one means or another. We really have to realize that we have no power to make those people buck up and thrive... no matter how much we try to include them in our communities. All we can do is join up with those who want to adapt and survive and leave those without the will to pass by the wayside.Ironically, the loss of that percentage would put the human population right around the "sustainable" figures most of the scientists agree on. It's a harsh and cold reality, but one we can't afford to ignore if we want to get our energy, efforts and resources working to the best advantage.

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Re: Collapse scenario(s)?

Hi PlicketyCat

I suppose you are right and certainly about movement of people to cities. It seems such a waste as all that is really required is a glimmer of comprehension to seed cooperative behavior.  I used to think our past experience of cooperation would someday return to reclaim our lives but it seems that this cooperation may have been very unwillingly learnt and then abandoned at the first opportunity http://www.theoildrum.com/node/4240.

On the subject of seeds and movement to cities; I see that the world according to Monsanto

is becoming a significant force to herd even more of us into cities. Leaving only sterile mechanics to run the factory farms.

I had kind of accepted the probable future prognosis intellectually but am now having more trouble with it emotionally as the real horror is revealed. Strange that I regarded myself as mostly into acceptance.

I'll go back to the humour thread then and see if I can pick myself up.

Don

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Re: Collapse scenario(s)?

My intuition is telling me that we will be surprised by our fellow humans in all ways.  Hardship and adversity seems to bring out the very best and the very worst in humanity simultaneously, and I think we'll be truly amazed over the next decade and beyond to see how high some will rise to the challenge, and how incredibly low some will fall.  So I think we will see that unfortunate scenario above play out in various places, but I think we'll also see many other places that come together in all the ways many of us here are thinking about.  We just need to keep our resolve to not let our communities slide downhill.  I've got a 5-month old boy that I'm determined to have grow up in the kind of community that most of us are working towards, and I guarantee that anyone who stands in my path won't ever know what hit them

- Nickbert

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Re: Collapse scenario(s)?

Thanks nickbert

I would feel more comfortable if I knew some stories from places where community had bloomed in the face of economic collapse; perhaps I'm watching the wrong films or reading the wrong books but I see no evidence. Dmitry tells stories of individuals thriving but not of communities. Where individuals seem to thrive it seems often to be on the backs of those in greater adversity around them. One of the characters in the film was able to borrow money from family and friends ('suckers') to feed his alcohol habit and was successful and resourcefully inventive in finding new ways to do this. Individuals ahead of the 'game' are able to buy in items of anticipated value and sell at a profit when these items are no longer generally available.

The only good example I can find is of very transitory tribal behaviour in the french quarter during katrina. Does anyone know of others?

Don

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Re: Collapse scenario(s)?

Some other positive examples: Greensburg KS after the 2007 tornado; NYC after the 9/11 bombings; San Francisco after the 1989 earthquake; Valdez AK after the Good Friday earthquake in 1964.  In my own experiences with several tornados in Texas, forest fires in Colorado, and hurricanes in the Carolinas there has always been a community pull-together to survive the event and then clean up afterwards.

During these events some thrive through self-sufficiency or cooperation, others buckle or abandon, and some do thrive through manipulation on the backs of others. As Nickbert says, adversity brings out the very best and worst in people. Unfortunately, I don't think that a person's basic nature will change much when the TSHTF... only get stronger and more evident. If you're a "good" or "strong" person, you'll become more helpful, more useful, more cooperative. If you're a "bad" person, you'll become less scrupulous, more manipulative, and more conniving. If you're a "weak" person, you'll become more despondent, less motivated, less useful. The only people I can really foresee having an obvious change are those people whose characters are currently undetermined... they'll either rise to the challenge (positively or negatively) or they will fall before it. Adversity in that case will only manifest their strongest trait and illuminate the depth of their will and character... not necessarily turn them into "good" cooperative humans (although I'm sure the expected percentage will).

Much as I'd like to live in a world without greed, avarice, deceit, envy, manipulation, exploitation, and lack of conscience I really don't see that happening in our lifetime (if ever). There will always be Machiavellian people who behave unscrupulously for their own personal gain. I'm an Idealist at heart, and learning to accept this fact on an emotional level is very painful... but it does keep me from having too high an expectation and thus becoming completely disheartened. Once I accepted that there are those sort of people in the world and we can't get rid of them and they won't change on their own, I could then focus on positively affecting what I could and helping those who wanted my help and were looking for positive change.

I stick by my original numbers: roughly 25% will survive and thrive "positively" either alone or in a community; roughly 50-75% will perish from lack of will... but there's that fuzzy bit where up to 25% may survive and thrive negatively either alone or in a community (either as a band of thugs or blending into a community to take advantage). Psychologists estimate that 1% of the population are full-blown psychopaths/sociopaths, and many argue that up to 20% of the population show distinct borderline sociopathic behaviors.

So, in the end after the dust settles, all that may remain are a "good" tribe and a "bad" tribe of roughly equal numbers. HOWEVER, the "bad" tribe won't be very good at taking care of each other, so there is liable to be many losses internally even though there is strength in numbers. The "good" tribe will ultimately prosper as long as they are strong enough to resist predation or manipulation by the "bad" tribe. In that case, it would be to the "good" tribe's advantage to have a few members of thier community who are "morally vague"... those who are loyal and will do the "right" thing for the group, but aren't necessarily opposed to acheiving "success" through "questionable" means.

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Re: Collapse scenario(s)?

I dont know that I will be able to add much to this conversation. I'm glad you brought up Greensburg Plickety, I thought that was a good example.

I think things will be slow, maybe marked by a few large events. The thought of the lady alone in her apartment, bottle in hand and military jets breaking the sound barrier above doest seem a too far off reality. You would not believe how large the DOD budget is. Its trillions a year. I still think it will be a gradual collapse though. Industry leaves, people forced to rely on government for everything, mafia mentality returns, infrastructure in a state of despair. I think the Russians provided a good model of things to come.

I agree with the large city argument, but offer some counter perspective. I think large cities could be considered a community within themselves. The problem as I see it is things become so large and diverse there is a disconnect between the people. You have your circle of friends, and no longer care as much about your neighbors around you. I think large cities could change to provide their own resources, become more of a true community, but I'm not sure if that would ever happen.

That 25% negative is what is the scary part. Some people will do whatever they have to in order to survive, even at the expense of others.

I would love to purchase a large piece of land, and be self sufficient. A small community with family and friends. For now I'm stuck in a city where they just legalized gambling and increased the amount of police to provide more revenue for the city. I guess I'm just along for the ride.

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Re: Collapse scenario(s)?

This is a huge subject and collapse can be different things to different communities and people.

From my view there are different things that could be considered a collapse and different possibilities for them:

1) Bank Holiday for 3 weeks plus

Issues:

a) people typically keep 1 to 3 weeks food in there house, and without money to get more food, than there can be trouble. (have nots go after the haves, death, etc.)

b) people typically do not have cash on hand for gasoline, if any is available at all, to get to work.  Work places shut down especially in long distance commuter areas.

c) Utilities can not run properly due to workers not being able to get there ((this will be another numbered concern set)).

2) Main utility lose (natural gas, electricity, water) 

a) Natural gas - In regions that get cold, not too much of an effect in summer except the people that only cook with gas and you will be taking alot of cold showers but in winter you can freeze (death), water pipes bursting, etc.  In warmer regions, this should not have much of an effect.

b) Electricity - Lose of communications, cooking if you have electric ovens, furnaces will not work well (lose of blowers), work places close down, not able to get money from banks or ATM's, food will not stay in freezers/fridges, gasoline will need to be hand pumped, basically modern society stops.

c) Water - people do not keep much water storage in their household (after 3 days without water you die).

3) Federal government steps over the line (declares martial law, etc.) and states start to enact sovereignty laws.  Now we have civil war potential.

4) Hyper inflation - can not afford anything. 

5) Complete dollar failure (Zimbabwe scenario) - we only have so much gold on hand to use as currency

6) Major draught, major reduction in cheap food and food supply.

I think these 6 items couls cause a collapse or more likely combinations of them. 

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Re: Collapse scenario(s)?
pir8don wrote:

Thanks nickbert

I would feel more comfortable if I knew some stories from places where community had bloomed in the face of economic collapse; perhaps I'm watching the wrong films or reading the wrong books but I see no evidence.

There's one strong example.  It is Cuba from 1990 onward their so-called "special period" that occurred exceptionally suddenly when their oil from Russia stopped arriving.

There's a longer movie on this, but here's a ~10 minute version: 

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Re: Collapse scenario(s)?

Chris,

Thanks for posting the link. Everyone needs to see just what it means to have to create a sustainable society with sharply decreased energy supplies. We are fortunate to have adequate electrical power in place without it relying on imported fuel, but reclaiming our soil for organic agriculture will be a huge challenge.

 

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Re: Collapse scenario(s)?

I think the wild card in this is what will happen when people loose their vices, there are a lot of people who fall into Plickety Cat's 50% who are weak, often they are manipulated by the "bad tribe".  My primary thought here is drugs, what happens when dealers can no longer supply, do they loose their power will this black market continue to function.  In a fast collapse such as Katrina there is no time for adjustment but what about a slow collapse, will black market organizations gain strength?

In the circles I travel in I can say with confidence that well over 50% of the people fall into the good camp and the percent soundly in the bad group is small as it stands today.  I see that California is talking about letting 38,000 people out of state lockup, that could change the picture quite a bit.  Plickety Cat mentioned people who are "morally vague" being an asset to the the good tribe but I believe there are plenty of people with "a strong sense of justice" who by nature are proactive and willing to take care of business.  In the above post (nickbret) did not leave much room for doubt that this is his sentiment as well.  I guess what you have to offer will determine what kind of place you can find for yourself in a new world.  It seems to me that things are moving slow enough to let people prepare themselves, the trouble I am having is determining what degree of collapse we may see.

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Re: Collapse scenario(s)?

Thanks everyone for your positive examples that have lifted my spirit. I had heard of Cuba but not seen detail of what was done so that is particually encouraging thanks Chris. So many examples of community pulling together seem to have a pivot point, a recognised event that precipitates a creative cooperative response.

Until the current 'economic crisis' I had held the view that the worst scenario was that we continue as we were. More people with lower expectations, all resources increasingly threatened but not extinguished. Then I started to think we would see a recognisable event such as a banking holiday. Maybe some or one of the others identified by mpelchat above.

I don't know much of the history of life in Finnland but I see a film that depicts a very unpleasant reality but I see no identified crisis. Here at CM, many of us seem to be waiting for some identifiable crisis (TSHTF). I am not in the US but much of the information coming to this site is about the US and very little of it is good. The numbers of unemployed, those who no longer live in their homes and all the other numbers that often represent various degrees of human misery. Peoples expectations forced lower by family level circumstances.

Leon (SPM) adds his voice to those that feel we may not see a TSHTF event or may see a number of them but they may not attract the significance of TSHTF. Already you have seen the values on which your/ our society was built destroyed almost overnight by those with power. I wonder if there are already places like that depicted by the Finnish film presently forming all over the US. They might/ must already be increasing at a concerning rate. What if they slowly become the accepted and expected new way of life.

Has TSHTF already and because there is no public perception of a single event to tie it to, there has been little or no boost to community?

Don

 

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Re: Collapse scenario(s)?

Here is a video I found entertaining Don. Mostly because of the guy, though I'm not sure if he is finnish or not, could be. Whats the name of the video you are referring too?

 

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Re: Collapse scenario(s)?

I prefer the term "moral flexibility" myself (how's that for a weasely euphemism?)

Really though, it's much more a matter of determining where your priorities lie more than changing or suspending one's moral values. We all at various times suffer from cognitive dissonance by holding to two or more moral values that happen to conflict with each other in special situations, so we have to set priorities (even though we sometimes don't realize that we're doing it). For example one of my personal rules to live by is to not harm others mentally, emotionally, or physically.... but a number of other things can take priority over that, such as defense of self or of others. So when I hear morally "vague" or "flexible" in the context of some percentage of people within a good community, I tend to think more of people who are mentally prepared and/or willing to make tough choices, know how to manage their emotions so they don't interfere with making quick or hard decisions, and/or are comfortable listening to and acting on their instincts when threatened. I have no illusions of being any kind of bad-ass, but I know what's important to me and I've found on rare occasions a bit of ruthlessness and cold logic become very useful.

Getting away from that tangent, though, I think there will be enough good communities out there (even in the cities!) that most people will at least have a CHANCE at a fulfilling life. It may require moving elsewhere in one's state or country (maybe outside of one's country in extreme cases) and may not be as easy in some ways as it once was, but that doesn't mean it'll be a bad life. That reference to 90's Cuba that Chris made is an excellent example. There's no reason we won't see a lot of that kind of community transition, and even some of the places that start out as dismally as in the Finnish film portrays will find the will to change into better communities. There will be predators and leeches and some psychopaths to be sure (I could include government on that list but I would be repeating myself...), but as Plickety mentioned there's seldom any kind of long-term cooperation between those people, and close-knit communities will be tough nuts for those people to crack. So to everyone who's worried about where we're all heading, just do your best to find or create that kind of community and realize that in itself will make all the problems and worries smaller and more manageable

- Nickbert

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Re: Collapse scenario(s)?
SPM wrote:

Here is a video I found entertaining Don. Mostly because of the guy, though I'm not sure if he is finnish or not, could be. Whats the name of the video you are referring too?

 

 

The guy in the video is Norwegian, not Finnish... (same diff). The video link is actually a repost of this video: 

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Re: Collapse scenario(s)?

Thanks Leon (SPM)

I got a really good laugh from your video but felt a bit uncomfortable toward the end. Because many of us are on the same path to oblivion even though we don't live in the US. If monsanto have their way they won't need fema or any other mechanism to drastically reduce population. 

The Finnish film is called Joki which is translated to English as 'the river' it was made in 2001 by Jamo Lampela.

Good observations and advice Nickbert. In the film one child character was portrayed as a hero in his concern and dedication to address the attempted suicide. The trouble was that I was left with the suspicion that he would grow to be just like almost every other adult in his environment and that worse still, suicide was the best choice for the desperate mother.

Don

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Re: Collapse scenario(s)?

Cuba is a fascinating example. They did have a few things working in their favor, e.g. a fairly lush, tropical climate facilitating year-round food production, as well as a very high standard of education and research (within fields relevant for food production). More temperate zones need to worry about solutions for food security and shelter/heating during winter months, but options are available. 

For example, I think permaculture (which is mentioned in the video) offers hope for most areas. Studies indicate there is considerable potential for increasing productivity per acre by adopting permaculture principles (e.g. so-called "forest gardens", using companion planting of mutually beneficial species, perennial plants, flowers to attract pollinators and fight pests, closed loop systems to minimize waste and return yields to the system as compost, etc.). We need to stop defining "productivity" in terms of output per person working the land, and instead think of output per acre. We also have to value long-term continued sustainability as opposed to short-term yields. We have a shortage of quality topsoil and fossil fuel based fertilizers, not of quality workers. With more people on the land working according to sound principles, we can restore soil quality, increase yield and move in the direction of more sustainable food production.

For anyone unfamiliar with, but curious about, permaculture, look up David Holmgren, Bill Mollison or Geoff Lawton. In Australia, but also elsewhere, there are groups hosting so-called permablitzes, where they transform someone's backyard to a a permaculture garden. A designer will come to your house and make an initial plan, and then a few weeks later, a group of volunteers will provide the workforce and in one day do all the initial work getting the garden started. They'll also host permaculture workshops during the day. To qualify for a visit to your house, you first have to participate as a volunteer in three permablitzes at someone else's place. (Look up http://www.permablitz.net for an example. Kind of cool.)

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Re: Collapse scenario(s)?

erm... I see now there's a separate thread devoted entirely to agriculture and permaculture. I guess I should have looked around a little bit more before posting :)

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Re: Collapse scenario(s)?

I think that some cities will actually support thriving communities. New York is a good example of this already - each borough has it's own character and fierce loyalties. I think this is likely to continue when things deteriorate. It's just important to remember that the population of a large city is too big to create and manage as a single community, so it's likely to break up into smaller villages that are loosely federated. Hopefully, this doesn't result in territorial battles and skirmishes over dwindling resources. That's what would concern me most about trying to ride all this out in the middle of a large city. Visions of "Escape from New York" and "Escape from LA" keep going through my mind. Of course, Snake Plissken (the main character) is a pretty good example of a "morally vague" individual working for the "greater good". There are two television series that I think portray a reasonably believable post-TSHTF life -- "Jeremiah" and "Jericho".

Maybe I'm a little reluctant to trust other's sense of moral justice because I've seen it go very very wrong. I just feel safer trusting people who aren't as emotionally attached when it comes to making ethical decisions. I don't think that someone necessarily has to be moral in order to be "good" or be a force of good... it's all a matter of how they chose to act and behave. I've known plenty of moral people who thought they were good, and fit every textbook definition of an upstanding person, but their actions and behaviors were definitely questionable. That's one thing all of us in our transitioned communities are going to have to keep in mind... don't become judgmental and self-righteous or else we'll end up right back in the land of vendetta and Jihad. While I have no problem dropping an immediate threat where it stands, I have to strongly convinced that it is a threat before I take action. If someone shows up on my farm and aggressively tries to take something by force, then they are a threat; but if someone sneaks onto my property to steal some potatoes to feed his family, he's not a threat... he's someone who needs help and I'll work with him to solve the problem. It's in those gray areas where I find social justice fails us and where we need to be very careful in the future.

I'm in the camp that believes that TSHTF will be an incremental collapse punctuated with several major events... which we might not be able to indentify except in retrospect. For this reason, I do believe that the shit is alreading hitting the fan, but it's still occuring at a reasonably controllable rate so many people are not aware exactly how far down the rabiit hole we really are. Sooner or later, we're going to have a big event that accelerates things and makes it all perfectly obvious, and then things will cool down for awhile until the next big thing happens. The "fits and starts" nature should give many of us early folks time to get our preparations in order, and the lulls in between should allow us to pick up stragglers or help others form communities of their own. But, it will also provide the more unsavory elements (drug dealers and black marketeers) ample time to prepare as well. I would be really surprised if there aren't people stockpiling things already specifically to black market post-TSHTF. I also think that we'll start seeing more thefts at pharmacies and hospitals as criminals and profiteers attempt to secure all the medications... especially those that can get you high. Those of us with the will to survive will likely find ourselves without any painkillers in the future because the others have taken them to numb out during the transition.

But really, I am not all gloom and doom, and I don't think it's going to be Hell on Earth post-TSHTF... I'm just preparing for things to be really, really different and I'm not counting on the milk of human kindness to show up in the majority of the people I meet.

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Re: Collapse scenario(s)?

I'll watch your video today Don. Yea I agree, I think the ending of that movie killed it. If someone could edit that out and repost just the guy talking, it would make for good comedy.

 

Pratimoksha - In the states, those natural pollinators are dissapearing very fast. It's sad, but I have linked a few articles to it.

http://ezinearticles.com/?Disappearing-Bees,-Dying-Bats,-And-Endangered-Polar-Bears&id=1205155

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2006/07/060721200158.htm

http://hubpages.com/hub/Frogs--Bats-and-Bees

http://www.newser.com/archive-headline-news/1G1-162587043/why-are-the-bees-disappearing-honeybees-have-gone-missing-from-their-hives-and-the-reason-has.html

 

I agree, I think TSHTF already. I think the ball has already started rolling.

I neglected stockpiling anything considered a vice. I'm sure some people will make money off that stuff, but I needed room for food and tools. I don't need cases of alcohol, cartons of cigarettes or a bunch of pill bottles for that matter, or even ammo.

I think people that are self righteous and judgemental are everywhere, whether they broadcast it publicly or not. I definately do not trust other peoples sense of moral justice, not currently at least.

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Re: Collapse scenario(s)?

OK, I read the transcript, too bad its only a transcript. Sad story though, but sounds like a thought provoking film. Without watching it, its hard to say. I think we are up for a major paradigm shift here in the states. My opinion, but could be equivalent to Roman transition from polytheism to monotheism. Interesting, but also about the time the Roman empire collapsed.

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Re: Collapse scenario(s)?

pir8don said:

I got a really good laugh from your video but felt a bit uncomfortable toward the end. Because many of us are on the same path to oblivion even though we don't live in the US. If monsanto have their way they won't need fema or any other mechanism to drastically reduce population.

Don, from the little I know of you, I am certain that you did not come by this conclusion without being diligent and thorough in your research.  So, I respectfully ask...shouldn't we try to stop it? 

Sorry if this is an off-base assumption; my take from your thread was that we are powerless to stop the apocalypse that is heading our way.  

Larry

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Re: Collapse scenario(s)?

thefull length movie is excellent.

one major point already mentioned is the tropical location. no one to my knowledge froze to death due to the energy descent .

those of you in northern climes may wish to consider how much energy it takes to live where you do.

"head south young man, head south"

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pir8don
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Re: Collapse scenario(s)?

Hi DrKrbyLuv

Perhaps trying to stop something is a rather negative response. Railing against power is a fruitless occupation in my view and becomes only an affirmation of the power. The only successful strategy is to make the power irrelevant. I have seen so many people in our community burn out as they try to alter the course of even local political power within the boundaries and by the mechanisms imposed by that power.  In short; They make the rules and win the game. Voting is for me a prime example but I accept that many disagree with me, but maybe less now than before.

Having said all that; People here (NZ) have grappled with the issue of genetically modified organisms and government legislation has attempted to severely limit their introduction. GMO's pollute heirloom crops and seeds so it looks like there is a time coming  soon when these small efforts will be insufficient to maintain a viable heirloom seed store and heirloom crops.

My partner has a made a huge collection of heirloom seeds and we have a number of very prodigious gardens grown from these seeds. We have some seeds in sufficient quantity for a small local community. Similarly we have tools and useful things way beyond our personal needs. We have solar power for electricity and hot water. With 20 years in place we know most of our neighbours and discuss our food security with some of them.

I don't believe we are powerless as I commented of the movie in the first post. Cooperative behaviour has always been and remains a viable option to better the lives of us all. We don't need money to force us. My point at this time is to recognise that its 'needing time' may not just be after an agreed disaster but now or soon. I believe that our group size is too big and that we can only act effectively and positively, and with those, in our immediate environment.

Each to their own.

Don

 

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pir8don
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Re: Collapse scenario(s)?

Need to rant more so here goes

I didn't raise this thread to sink into a morass of despair. I raised it in my frustration at a very likely collapse scenario. That reported from some of the places where collapse might be considered to have already occurred. I see this scenario as being more of the same competitive bahaviour that some of our lives have or are become(ing).

In contrast I see cooperative behaviour. People getting together where they live to find creative responses to the situation they find themselves in. In the film a simple agreed signal might have brought other residents to the aid of one temporarily in need. Cooperative food growing might have provided a safety net. Violent people may have become less violent just from the presence of a few more people or may have felt uncomfortable enough to leave. In some situations everyone might have a CB radio to connect them with each other. People might gather either formally or informally to be still together and know each other better. Share resources and ideas, knowledge and influence. A working functional community has an identity and culture much greater than the sum of its parts. Its members might not need so much solace in bottles, pills or whatever.

There are a myriad of actions available to a human scale group not available to individuals or a family; especially those individuals and families locked into a tunnel of despair. Its our natural way to be. We don't need a new invention or more wealth, we just need to recover our humanity on a scale befitting our species. We need people to seed these communities and the people here seem like the right ones to me.

But its not just about community it is more about collapse and our recognition of it and response to it. We can postulate forever how our own collapse might unfold but to me it makes most sense to learn from those who have gone before or are there already.

Don

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DrKrbyLuv
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Posts: 1995
Re: Collapse scenario(s)?

Don,

Thanks for the response.  I learned a lot from your perspective and really admire the things you've accomplished in preparing to help build a community that prospers on its own.  Dam, I wish you lived in my neighborhood!

Larry

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pir8don
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Posts: 456
Re: Collapse scenario(s)?

Larry

I continue to be impressed at how well we build our own community here through such a narrow medium. Chris's writing and insight have bought disparate people together. I too would like to meet and know personally the others here but at such a distance there is little oportunity for me. It seems to happen anyway and in spite of the distance. Thanks

Don

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SPM
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Posts: 241
Re: Collapse scenario(s)?

I wish I lived in your neighborhood.  Buying a plot of land in Arizona or Colorado has been coming back and forth through my mind. I don't think anything good is coming from the major cities. My only concern would be the ability to have well water.

pir8don's picture
pir8don
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Posts: 456
Re: Collapse scenario(s)?

Joe

That would be north from here. Not a lot of food growing in my neighbourhood but an awful lot of trees. Electric chainsaw. Warm winter.

Don

Sean

It is possible that the cities will empty a lot faster than they filled and the time between now and then is another variable. Water security seems to be rapidly replacing oil as a major source of concern. We have a reliable river nearby but well water is a whole other game. As I understand it overuse lowers the water table and near the sea results in salination. All problems seem too big to fix unless constrained to a small locality and many times not even then.

Don

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SPM
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Posts: 241
Re: Collapse scenario(s)?

Even my own problems seem to big to fix sometimes. I'll explain my frustrations. I'm stuck in a city where I feel like things if they go down, are going to go down fast. I don't have money to buy a piece of land anywhere and be sustainable. For now, I am stuck in an apartment, where I feel like its one of the worst possible places to be. Not location necessarily, just that fact that its an apartment. I can't even put solar panels on the roof now if I wanted too. I don't have room to grow my own food, or anything like that. So my question becomes, do I continue with the 9 to 5, pay my bills and just wait for this all to play out? Wait for a collapse, and then figure things out? Or do I take some form of action, community building for a type of community you guys speak of is non existant here, no matter how much I want it to be. I feel like I have been as proactive as I can, but I'm just at a loss really for what to do.

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pinecarr
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Posts: 2237
Re: Collapse scenario(s)?

SPM, have you considered checking into working for an organization like Heifer International (if it would pay room and board)?  That way you'd accomplish both the goal of getting out of the city, plus you'd learn important skills about how to care for animals [and crops, I think] they give away to help people live better, more sustainable lives.  I don't know if they offer those types of positions, but it's a thought.  Another idea I've seen others on the site suggest is to offer yourself up for hire at a large farm or ranch.  Again, you could see if it is possible to exchange room and board (and learning valuable skills for living sustainably) for your labor.  It seems like such a plan would be a good transition step for someone in your situation.

You'd have to do the leg-work research-wise to ID and pursue potential opportunities of this nature.  Another example, get a job (any kind of job!) at a school/college that teaches agriculture (or other important knowledge/skills).  Even if you can't afford to buy land right now, it could get you out in an apartment or rented house out in a  rural area.  That would be a better place to be than in the city if things go bad (in my opinion).  Or enroll in such a college, if affordable.

Identify opportunities of that nature and assess if that gets you in a better area to weather things out.  Or identify areas that seem to have good communities, and then search them for opportunities.  You may even find job offers in local papers.

No guarantees, but at least this might give you some paths you could explore.

Good luck!

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