Collapse - Implications for other countries besides America.

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Amanda V's picture
Amanda V
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Collapse - Implications for other countries besides America.

I think most CM readers are in agreement that collapse is imminent (or TSHTF) - the only point of debate is the time frame and order of events leading up to it.

I have read most forums on this site and gain a lot from the discussions on how to prepare.

But a lot of readers, like me, are not from America.  I get confused a bit about what is likely to happen in America and whether that necessarily means it is likely to happen here, in New Zealand.  Mostly, I have very little understanding of economics and finance (although lately it is not for lack of trying).

So for instance, when the share markets plumets even more - how dependent are other international stocks on that ?  If your stocks crash, does our country pour further in to recession ?

When the USD goes much further down in value - are other currencies likely to ?  Or will that just affect our imports or export market ? 

New Zealanders have always said, when America catches a cold, we sneeze.  Which is why I know we are so dependent on the American economy.  But if America does collapse, will we as a country also collapse ???  And if we do, so will the rest of the world I suppose ?

Anybody with any knowledge on economics or how this all ties together, I would be very grateful if I could have your opinion please.

 

 

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Re: Collapse - Implications for other countries besides ...

Economically yes when the US market collapses the entire world market (except the most insular locales which aren't playing this game, like indigenous tribal lands) will as well because the entire world has been playing the US game of debt and the $, and it's that system which is collapsing.  

That does not mean that the rest of the world will collapse politically/socially when the US does.  Much of the world has stronger community than the US.  The economic forces could draw communities/nations more together, whereas in the US we will be pitted against each other and torn apart.  The US has no core anymore except an oppressive IRS, reserve bank, military/police force and a manipulative media to dumb us down and create the illusion of community together, but those forces are the very things that hollowed out our communities...the real ability to remain together.  Many other places around the world still have their core, their raisson d'etre, their tangible desire to be together.  

The economic power of the world will now be shifting to Asia.  Asia will suffer badly in this collapse like all of us, but they have the wealth and the means to readjust.  They own most of the capital in the world now.  They do most of the world's production (the key to real wealth and growth as opposed to the fake nominal growth the US has driven for so many years). Countries who realize this and go along with that shift will eventually prosper in the next great cycle of economic evolution. 

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Re: Collapse - Implications for other countries besides ...

Thanks Strabes.  To clarify, are you saying that the entire world market is likely to collapse simply because it is doing the same thing as America - rather than because of its dependence on the American economy ?

So although New Zealand is dependent on the US economy, we should not feel too much effect when the US market collapses because our debt per person - or relative to GDP - so so much less ?

As for community, it is hard to gauge how ours differs as I have never spent more than a couple of days in the US, as a tourist (and was far too busy skiing to notice whether the people had any sense of community or not!).  All the Americans I have ever met have been absolutely lovely people and I could not imagine that they would have LESS community in their neighbourhood than we do.  So in that sense, we are in roughly the same boat, so to speak.

Thanks again for your comment.  I would feel better if I lived in Asia !

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Re: Collapse - Implications for other countries besides ...

It's not so much the dependence on the US per se as much as it is dependence on the global financial system run by the many Fed Reserve banks and denominated in the US $.  It just so happens the US is at the top of that pyramid because it's based on the $.  So it's both...dependence and because it's doing the same thing...I haven't seen their balance sheets, but I'm sure NZ banks are vulnerable to derivatives, mortgages, securitized debt just like the rest of the banks around the world. 

If NZ per capita debt is lower, it doesn't necessarily mean it won't suffer.  For example, China is a net creditor nation, but it will suffer massively because it's just on the other side of the debt/credit system that is crashing.  But on an individual level, if your debt-to-equity is lower, then you'll be better off.  

Some parts of Asia won't be a good place to be in the short-term.  It's going to suffer very badly, and it's home to the most evil, tyrannical government in the world (China) which engages in eugenics, organ harvesting, and other types of oppression which will probably get uglier as its economy collapses.  But in the long run, Asia will emerge from the collapse as the economic engine of the world.

Personally, given that we can't live on Mars, I think NZ is a great option.  I wish I could get my family and friends to move there because I'd be there in a heartbeat.  

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Re: Collapse - Implications for other countries besides ...

Strabes.  How can I help you ?  I will help in any way I can get you to NZ if you want.  Is it your family and friends not wanting to come that is holding you back?   Let me know if there is anything I can do. 

I can't help with the Mars option I am afraid.

Also, thanks for the clarification in your last post.

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Re: Collapse - Implications for other countries besides ...

I appreciate the offer.  click my email link and send your email address...I don't see an email link for you.

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Re: Collapse - Implications for other countries besides ...

One of the historical events that helped me understand how a US economic collapse could affect the rest of the world is The Great Depression of 1929. Take a look at what was happening to the economy in Europe after WWI. The US government and a few big corporations generously offered to help Germany rebuild and pay it's war debts/reparations. Then we suddenly had no money to help anyone. Everyone in Europe who were counting on Germany or US to pay them began to have financial difficulties. Germany was having serious financial difficulties, and the people became desperate. This made a perfect environment for someone like Hitler to slide into power and start slowly flexing his muscles (the mid 30's) and further led people to accept all sorts of bizarre things as good ideas... voila WWII. 

So, it took roughly 2 years from the beginning of the Depression for the Nazi party to gain significant power in the Reichstag. Then less than 2 years after that for Hitler to be elected Chancellor. Two months later, he'd legislated himself into dictatorship, dissolving the democratic Reichstag.  So, overall, 4 years from US economic collapse, and the rise of a fascist dictator, and then 5 more until the Blitzkreig.  A little less than 10 years... and it would probably have been faster if there had were money floating around. That's completely oversimplifying things, and somewhat independent of the global monetary system, but I'm a history gal not a financial guru.

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Re: Collapse - Implications for other countries besides ...

PlicketyCat,

The rise in power of Hitlers et al is one of the things that worries me the most.  I do not fear a poor economy, having to plant my own food, and becoming overall much more self-reliant.  Any of those things can be overcome with planning and work.  The rise of a facist dictator next door to you (or in your own country) does scare me.  It can only be defended with by feigned submission or outright confrontation.  Neither thrills me. 

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Re: Collapse - Implications for other countries besides ...
Amanda V wrote:

I think most CM readers are in agreement that collapse is imminent (or TSHTF) - the only point of debate is the time frame and order of events leading up to it.

"Collapse" and "imminent" seem pretty loose loose terms to me, so I think each reader needs to be careful about how they interpret what those mean. I see slowly (measured in months or a few years, but within our lifetimes) evolving and accelerating CHANGE to a future different than today, but not a quick collapse unless something very sudden happens like our biggest sources of oil imports suddenly shut us off or a major war is declared. Certainly, as CM notes, the next 20 years will be very different than the last 20 years simply because last 20 years are mathematically unsustainable.

I believe the stock markets reflect the percieved economy more than they drive it, so a stock market downturn or collapse doesn't cause the economy to collapse but indicates investors' feelings about the economy's condition or future prospects (and note sometimes markets can be wrong too!).

If the US dollar goes down relative to your currency, it will be cheaper for your country to buy US exports and more expensive for the US to buy your exports. Right now the dollar strength is high (and gold) apparently only because other world currencies are perceived in even weaker condition. CM put out some good info on this in the latest podcast (readers questions) that is worth listening to.

I don't know much about the relationship between the US economy and New Zealand, but if your country is overdependent on the US then in the long run your country might benifit from getting off that dependency, however painful the transition.

Hope to visit your country someday.
good luck!
Tom

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Re: Collapse - Implications for other countries besides ...

Amanda,

 

It seems like you and your family are preparing pretty well.

All I can add, and I have only been able to follow this advice to a small degree (spouse not onboard) is that gold has appreciated against all major currencies in the last eight years. If you just peg it to the dollar (may be you as NZ don't), it doesn't look as good as it really did. We are entering the next few months when gold "traditonally" puts in its lows. Who know what will happen this era but I am looking to buy a bit more.

GLTA.

SG

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Re: Collapse - Implications for other countries besides ...

My wife and I are also interested in NZ as a possibility, Amanda. Any tips you could provide via my email link would be appreciated. We have some what of a handicap in that we are 49 & 52. My wife does have her Masters in Scoial Work and Marriage and Fasmily Therapy and I think I have read before that this is an occupation desired in NZ. I have several well recognized certifications in Auditing, Informaiton Systems Auditing  and Information Securtiy and am working on a Masters in Public Health, so those may be attributes thatr the NZ gov deems desirable. We are both in very good health, etc. Still, I think we may have some hurdles to jump to get NZ to allow us to move there. Thoughts?

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Re: Collapse - Implications for other countries besides ...
Patrick Brown wrote:

PlicketyCat,

The rise in power of Hitlers et al is one of the things that worries me the most.  I do not fear a poor economy, having to plant my own food, and becoming overall much more self-reliant.  Any of those things can be overcome with planning and work.  The rise of a facist dictator next door to you (or in your own country) does scare me.  It can only be defended with by feigned submission or outright confrontation.  Neither thrills me. 

I understand! I grew up in Germany and the aftermath was still noticeable even 30 years later. Traveling through the DDR to Berlin was one of the most frightening experiences of my life. Like you, I'm not afraid of losing money, or having to be more self-reliant and self-sufficient... I'm worried about the possibility of war. Our reasons for getting away from populated areas is two-fold... they're targets for military invasion and terrorism, and they are hotspots for civil chaos and mob riots when resources disappear. It's not that we can't deal with the changes to come, but that the people who've been ignoring it all this time won't be able to. When that happens, all sorts of unscrupulous people and leaders are just waiting in the wings to make a power grab and the majority of people will go along with it because they are paniced and desperatre. Not a pleasant thought.

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Re: Collapse - Implications for other countries besides ...

Amanda -

Read "The Risk to Europe" section of the following:  http://www.peakprosperity.com/forum/while-rome-burns-john-mauldin/14057 for some great commentary and observations.

Looks to me like Europe will unwind faster than the US does - beyond me why Austria would whore out her banks the way she did.  70% of GDP loaned??????  In another currency?????  An order of magnitude more than what the US bailout packages totaled??  What a tangled web indeed.

Makes you wonder if served political appointees and disgraced captains of industry in America change their names and head off to screw up other countries too.

Makes me want to pack up and move to the South Island - I could be happy - any need for retired Nuclear Engineers in NZ?

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Re: Collapse - Implications for other countries besides ...

The rise of Hitler is definitely a sobering reality.  Today's sheep think "that guy was crazy, that would never happen here!!" Yeah right, tyrants have just become far more sophisticated and "professional" on TV.  They know how to manipulate like Orwell predicted.  This is really far more dangerous than the obvious psychopathology in Hitler.  And it's all been done surreptitiously through control of our monetary system rather than being just an obvious oppressive use of power.  We're already under a pseudo-fascist system and people don't even know it.  But I think the next step is the oppressive use of power.  It will be done under the guise of protecting us from "evil terrorists."

It's also a bigger threat today because of globalization and the nwo initiative.  If the US collapses and tyranny is imposed there will be no standing army to oppose it.  It will last way longer than Hitler lasted.

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Re: Collapse - Implications for other countries besides ...

Hi Dogs, 70% is ridiculous, but kind of conservative given today's hyper-leverage.  Most of our large institutions are leveraged at 1000%-3000% due to derivatives exposure.  So while I agree Austrian banks were irresponsible, it's nothing compared to Wall St.  But they're all just pawns in the BS system created by the Fed, BOE, ECB....

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Re: Collapse - Implications for other countries besides ...

strabes -

The banking derivatives exposure is largely internal to US borders and can be legislated away.  Not sure where you came up with a valuation of 1000%-3000% - the banks have no clue as to the value of what they hold so we certainly don't.

When a country is exposed ACROSS borders at 70% - that is the formula for complete disaster.  Austria is double whammied because most of the loan was in Swiss francs - I think that's why Chris sent his subscriber alert out last week.

Also - how do you define Wall Street?  Mrs. Dogs and I have been hitting the market pretty hard lately.  Do you consider an active trader part of the Wall Street Borg Collective?  As long as Wall Street keeps doing what it's doing, we're going to keep doing what we're doing and enjoying the result.

Just curious.

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Re: Collapse - Implications for other countries besides ...

I'm a cadet...I think you're a middie.  though our natural tendency would be to fight, I didn't mean to start one at all...we're on the same side!  let's both move to the South Island.  Laughing

I don't include you at all in the wall st disease.  I'm all for traders putting skin in the game as the big institutions play their game.  I'd play the game more if I had the trading skills.  my fight is with the institutions and the Fed. if anything, the pressure that you and other individual players like Jim Rogers put on the markets is a very good thing...you help the market be accountable and reveal the scams that institutions play.

30x leverage is what I've generally heard talked about among some ex-bond traders and market makers.  so I used that as the ceiling and made up my own spread of 10x-30x.  I figure the ballpark is in that range.  but as you say, I have no clue just like everybody else. 

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Re: Collapse - Implications for other countries besides ...

Strabes and Septimus

www.immigration.govt.nz

I cut and pasted this from the site regarding age: 

To apply under the Skilled Migrant Category, you must meet our requirements. You need to be aged from 20-55 (inclusive). You also have to meet our standards of health, character, and English language proficiency before you start the process.

Septimus you will be the right age, not sure how old you are Strabes.

There should be a list of skills NZ wants somewhere on the site.

But it appears you can also get in if you have some money and you are prepared to start up a business (??!!) 

I rekon if you are thinking of going down that track, set up a business selling self sufficient and sustainable gear.  You will clean up, and I will be your first customer!

Have a read of the site.  There are a lot of different ways for entry.

I have put my email thing up on my profile now too.  So either of you can ask me to find out more information if you want.  I could ring immigration and grill them about specific questions if you want etc.

Strabes I said in my email to you I would send you another link but can't  find it.  This site has so many on it now!  Will have another look later.

 

 

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Re: Collapse - Implications for other countries besides ...

Do they limit who can "retire" there? What do you need in assets if you're over 55?

 

 SG

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Re: Collapse - Implications for other countries besides ...

Hey! What about me! I am Buddhist and only own what I can carry in my backpack! Can I come?

 :^)

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Re: Collapse - Implications for other countries besides ...
strabes wrote:

The rise of Hitler is definitely a sobering reality.  Today's sheep think "that guy was crazy, that would never happen here!!" Yeah right, tyrants have just become far more sophisticated and "professional" on TV.  They know how to manipulate like Orwell predicted.  This is really far more dangerous than the obvious psychopathology in Hitler.  And it's all been done surreptitiously through control of our monetary system rather than being just an obvious oppressive use of power.  We're already under a pseudo-fascist system and people don't even know it.  But I think the next step is the oppressive use of power.  It will be done under the guise of protecting us from "evil terrorists."

It's also a bigger threat today because of globalization and the nwo initiative.  If the US collapses and tyranny is imposed there will be no standing army to oppose it.  It will last way longer than Hitler lasted.

I think there is a telling little indicator that no one wants to see in this country... one of the first things that Hitler did was remove the people's right to own and bear arms.  Hmmmm what has our gov't been trying to do lately?  The American people don't want to accept that any number of our own politicians could easily set up a similar regime... the government controls the military, if the people aren't armed then there is no fighting back. Just like the Germans faced with the Nazi Storm Troopers.  It's not a far leap from erosion of civil liberties to outright oppression.

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Re: Collapse - Implications for other countries besides ...

Cape survivor - I have no idea about retiring over here sorry.  I looked on www.immigration.govt.nz for you but found nothing.  You would need to send off an enquiry.  I suspect if you had enough money, the answer would always be yes.  Also thanks for your comment about Gold.  Will be actioning on Monday.

DHB273,  We do not exclude Buddhists or backpacks !!  I believe there is other criteria though so check out the immigration site !

Strabes, the NWO is very scary.  The only good thing is about the impending collapse, is that maybe it will collapse them too.

Plickety cat - welcome to the site.  If the US is removing arms, then you need to ALL move over to NZ now !

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Re: Collapse - Implications for other countries besides ...

Amanda -

Any idea on restrictions on retired military who want to become ex pats?  Last time I checked, New Zealand didn't have a large submarine force so that's out.  I couldn't find anything on your link.

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Re: Collapse - Implications for other countries besides ...
Amanda V wrote:

Plickety cat - welcome to the site.  If the US is removing arms, then you need to ALL move over to NZ now !

 

Amanda,

This country has been gun-happy since the days of the Wild West. If the U.S. government ever started trying to round up guns, well......... I don't think it would be very pretty.

Yell (From My Cold, Dead Hands!)  http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charlton_Heston

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Re: Collapse - Implications for other countries besides ...

Dogs In a Pile

My husband just said to me that if you have money it is a sure thing to get here.

Alternatively, he said to go to internet dating and find yourself a nice NZ wife (LOL - we met on internet dating!)

Seriously though, I honestly don't know the answers other than looking on the immigration web site which I have given you.  I can't see a place on the site where you can enquire about your specific circumstances, so I will give them a call next week for you - and ask about retired military people who want to live here.

Cape survivor - I will ask how much money you need to get here if you are over 55.

Septimus - you should be able to get a lot of info from the web site but if you have specific questions please let me know and I will ask them too.

Strabes - same for you but let me know if there is any specific questions.

For all of you, it seems the best thing to do is the intention to set up a small business in NZ (that seems to be the biggie, especially in this economy).  That is regardless of your skills or training.  They want businesses.

Anyway.

We are thinking of buying 26 acres, or other land.  You can all stay in a caravan on the land while you settle in - or longer !

Glad you are all so keen to come over.  Will be lovely to have you.

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Re: Collapse - Implications for other countries besides ...

Here is another thread with some info about NZ

http://www.peakprosperity.com/forum/kiwi-overseas-looking-new-zealand-contacts/13004

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Re: Collapse - Implications for other countries besides ...
Amanda V wrote:

Dogs In a Pile

My husband just said to me that if you have money it is a sure thing to get here.

Alternatively, he said to go to internet dating and find yourself a nice NZ wife (LOL - we met on internet dating!)

Seriously though, I honestly don't know the answers other than looking on the immigration web site which I have given you.  I can't see a place on the site where you can enquire about your specific circumstances, so I will give them a call next week for you - and ask about retired military people who want to live here.

Cape survivor - I will ask how much money you need to get here if you are over 55.

Septimus - you should be able to get a lot of info from the web site but if you have specific questions please let me know and I will ask them too.

Strabes - same for you but let me know if there is any specific questions.

For all of you, it seems the best thing to do is the intention to set up a small business in NZ (that seems to be the biggie, especially in this economy).  That is regardless of your skills or training.  They want businesses.

Anyway.

We are thinking of buying 26 acres, or other land.  You can all stay in a caravan on the land while you settle in - or longer !

Glad you are all so keen to come over.  Will be lovely to have you.

 

With everybody moving to NZ, I think I'll just stay here. There won't be anyone around when TSHTF!  Wink

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Re: Collapse - Implications for other countries besides ...
Sam wrote:

With everybody moving to NZ, I think I'll just stay here. There won't be anyone around when TSHTF!  Wink

LOL  Laughing

Amanda, we could start quite a sustainable community on 26 acres! 

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Re: Collapse - Implications for other countries besides ...
Amanda V wrote:

Dogs In a Pile

My husband just said to me that if you have money it is a sure thing to get here.

Alternatively, he said to go to internet dating and find yourself a nice NZ wife (LOL - we met on internet dating!)

We are thinking of buying 26 acres, or other land.  You can all stay in a caravan on the land while you settle in - or longer !

Glad you are all so keen to come over.  Will be lovely to have you.

Amanda -

I'm thinking Mrs. Dogs (Cat233) would probably frown on me finding a Kiwi wife.

Maybe not - I'll ask when she gets back from her run.

Isn't there some rule about being able to have a spouse in each hemisphere or did I make that up? Cool

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Re: Collapse - Implications for other countries besides ...

Vis-a-vis moving to GodZone/NZ -- 

Hmmm...it's been 25 years since me and my exchange-student-year Kiwi girlfriend were together.  I wonder if I made that kind of lasting impression.  Oh, *right*...I'm married.  So much for Plan B.  

On to Plan C!

Sager 

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Re: Collapse - Implications for other countries besides ...
Dogs_In_A_Pile wrote:
Amanda V wrote:

Dogs In a Pile

My husband just said to me that if you have money it is a sure thing to get here.

Alternatively, he said to go to internet dating and find yourself a nice NZ wife (LOL - we met on internet dating!)

We are thinking of buying 26 acres, or other land.  You can all stay in a caravan on the land while you settle in - or longer !

Glad you are all so keen to come over.  Will be lovely to have you.

Amanda -

I'm thinking Mrs. Dogs (Cat233) would probably frown on me finding a Kiwi wife.

Maybe not - I'll ask when she gets back from her run.

Isn't there some rule about being able to have a spouse in each hemisphere or did I make that up? Cool

 

Whatever, I am flexible these days... Amanda, do you have a brother? Wink

Cat

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