Bradley model update

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investorzzo's picture
investorzzo
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Posts: 1182
investorzzo's picture
investorzzo
Status: Diamond Member (Offline)
Joined: Nov 7 2008
Posts: 1182
machinehead's picture
machinehead
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Joined: Mar 18 2008
Posts: 1077
Re: Bradley model update

In the 4-year presidential cycle, lows frequently have occurred between August and October of the second presidential year -- the one we're in now. A few examples include Aug. 1982, Oct. 1990, Oct. 1998, and Oct. 2002.

The Bradley model uses different inputs, so the Bradley model and presidential cycle happen to coincide this year.

Of course, if the market trend goes against the models, then the trend is the ultimate arbiter. I like to treat these cyclical models as 'biases,' rather than as decisive buy/sell signals on their own.

Bearish sentiment is becoming a positive for the market. A dip into autumn, if it happens, ought to provoke 'extraordinary measures' from the usual suspects, which would provide the rocket fuel for a fresh blast to the upside afterward.

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