The bad news on unemployment is really good news?????

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Ken C's picture
Ken C
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The bad news on unemployment is really good news?????

I continue to be amazed how the MSM can take bad news and spin it to try to sound like good new.

The Labor Department reported Thursday that the number newly laid off workers applying for benefits dropped to 601,000 last week. That was far better than the rise to 635,000 claims that economists expected.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/New-US-jobless-claims-plunge-apf-15167376....

 

Ken

 

 

mpelchat's picture
mpelchat
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Re: The bad news on unemployment is really good news?????

Interesting, only a 5% change and the world is saved. 

 

Subprime JD's picture
Subprime JD
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Re: The bad news on unemployment is really good news?????

A few weeks ago jobless claims were in the range of 650,000 per week for several weeks. So with the moving average falling it is better then it rising is it not? This country has already lost over 5 million jobs and its going to lose another 5 million in the next 2 years. I feel for all these people including me who is graduating law school in 7 days and feel so discouraged about employment prospects.

that1guy's picture
that1guy
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Re: The bad news on unemployment is really good news?????

it will get adjusted the other way in a few weeks like EVERY other government number

mpelchat's picture
mpelchat
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Re: The bad news on unemployment is really good news?????
bearmarkettrader wrote:

A few weeks ago jobless claims were in the range of 650,000 per week for several weeks. So with the moving average falling it is better then it rising is it not? This country has already lost over 5 million jobs and its going to lose another 5 million in the next 2 years. I feel for all these people including me who is graduating law school in 7 days and feel so discouraged about employment prospects.

Bear,

I am sorry if I offended you in anyway.  I am not trying to say increase of unemployment is good or reductions are bad and it was not my point.  The point is a very small change for one period of time and the MSM is all over it saying we are on the road to recovery.  Heck 601,000 seems like a big number to me.

I could even see this if the trend was 5% reductions over a reasonable period of time (like 6 to 12 weeks), but only a very short time the media is grabbing at straws for hope.

 

 

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Subprime JD
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Re: The bad news on unemployment is really good news?????
mpelchat wrote:
bearmarkettrader wrote:

A few weeks ago jobless claims were in the range of 650,000 per week for several weeks. So with the moving average falling it is better then it rising is it not? This country has already lost over 5 million jobs and its going to lose another 5 million in the next 2 years. I feel for all these people including me who is graduating law school in 7 days and feel so discouraged about employment prospects.

Bear,

I am sorry if I offended you in anyway.  I am not trying to say increase of unemployment is good or reductions are bad and it was not my point.  The point is a very small change for one period of time and the MSM is all over it saying we are on the road to recovery.  Heck 601,000 seems like a big number to me.

I could even see this if the trend was 5% reductions over a reasonable period of time (like 6 to 12 weeks), but only a very short time the media is grabbing at straws for hope.

 

 

Oh no offense was taken!! I know that you were making the argument that the mainstream media is hyping up any piece of somewhat better data. I was just pointing out that 2 months ago the weekly claim hit 670,000 and now its been falling since then. I know about the revisions and how the revise the numbers to the upside. Perhaps the economy is done cliff diving for now? Thats what happens when big ben prints 12 trillion to back stop the credit markets from imploding.

With regards to my personal situation, i accept reality for what it is. I willingly entered into a profession without fully researching how saturated the job market would be. I assumed that the boomer lawyers would begin retiring en masse opening the market for new comers like me. Now with the stock market imploding and boomers drowning in debt it looks lke the lawyers will be practicing well into their 70s. Were i to have learned more about economics before the crash of bear stearns (thats when i began to learn that the US would implode) then i wouldnt have gone into law. I assume all responsibility for this decision.

Back to the initial jobless claims. This is starting to look like a 70s style double dip recession. Too many people on this site think were going to have a 1930s style cliff diving event. Remember, the status quo must be maintained because all the babies in the US and the world are unwilling to tolerate any pain and sufffering. We have to suffer the consequences for living above our means, but with all this money printing we will suffer far worse pain. In the mean time, dont be surprised to see job losses drop for the next several months.

 

 

 

 

Ken C's picture
Ken C
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Re: The bad news on unemployment is really good news?????
bearmarkettrader wrote:
mpelchat wrote:
bearmarkettrader wrote:

 

In the mean time, dont be surprised to see job losses drop for the next several months.

 

  

 

The point is that at 600,000 the number is still very large. Even if it continues to decline at the same rate a lot of people are still unemployed. I suspect even this number does not adequately reflect the poor employment situation.

 

Ken

 

mpelchat's picture
mpelchat
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Re: The bad news on unemployment is really good news?????

If we had a 5% reduction per month and the totals start at 600,000 unemplyment in a  month than we end up with 5.5 million people losing jobs in the next year.

I am hope the reduction percentage become a hockey stick pattern quickly like everything else happening in the world.

Subprime JD's picture
Subprime JD
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Re: The bad news on unemployment is really good news?????

Agree. Many small business owners that shut down and lose their primary source of income are not included in the data. From a traders perspective, the official data plays a big role in which way the market will move. Assuming that the official numbers continue to drop we could see this rally continue. Due to my strong bearish bias, im still waiting to open short positions. I played this move to the upside and dumped 3 weeks ago. From a moral perspective this depression is ruining people across the country and personal hardship is harsh and will continue to become more widespread. I am not of the believe that the US ecnomy will "collapse" but rather believe in the downward stair case scenario. US will get poorer and poorer as we lose more jobs and as the dollar continues its downward decline.

 

Based on the data the US should collapse economically but lets not forget about the 1000's of nuclear warships, stealth bombers, warships, aircraft carriers, sattelite weaponry and the 700 bases we have around the world. Rome didnt collapse in one day as its military was feared around the world. Just as rome's trading partners didnt want to see her crash and burn, neither do our arab and asian trading buddies want to see their biggest customer crash and burn overnight. I believe this will be a gradual process with several scary steps down on the way to our collective ruin.

 

The bear

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britinbe
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Posts: 381
Re: The bad news on unemployment is really good news?????

Quite simply, they are saying that "things are not as bad as we thought they were going to be, so therefore things must be getting better....."  Pure communication theory!!!!  They managed the bad news, its just that you guys have a talent to see through the words used and to see the subtext!!!

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