Back to basics

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ljones0's picture
ljones0
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Back to basics

Hello all,

 

I've been reading the information on this site on and off for a few months' now, and I have watched (eventually!) the whole crash course series of videos. But over time I have been thinking one thing. I come onto this site, and I read this thread or this post. And I see graph after graph after graph, I read about stress tests and tea parties and the FED (which I guess only is really relevent to the USA, I'm from the UK) and I can't help but think -- what does half of this stuff mean?!

 

Graphs are all very intresting and saying website X or Y or person Z thinks 20% of this or that will be gone by this time or that time. But surely statstics can fall both ways? If you are clever, you can make a graph say almost anything -- you could make it look like everything's getting better year on year, or the world is about to end. And what about the information on all those sites out there -- are their figures verified? Or is it just someones' opinion or a guesstimation?

 

I must admit this site is one of the better ones, though I do tend to avoid sites with 'information' on them. I have found a lot of them in the past to contain a few webpages of information (if that) and then you find out it is all just one big *advert* for a book. Yep, sad to say many sites out there are just out so "squeeze a book", so to speak. Maybe the only ones to make money as a recession occurs are writers of a books called "there's going to be a recession"?

 

I'm just wondering how much of what we see is useful information and how much is just plain twaddle. I mean (for example) if oil has hit its peak and (as the crash course says) it gets slowly but surely more expensive to get the oil out of the ground why don't we see this in the price of oil. I mean oil barons aren't gonna give the stuff away! And why all the comparisons (even if you live in the USA) to the 1920s and 1930s? Yes I know there was the great depression, but the world has changed in the 80 odd years since! We do not live in the world of the '20s and the '30s. It isn't like all of technology just vanishes if there's a serious problem surely?

 

I'm sorry for my cynasisim but ....either there is something I'm not understanding or prehaps the noise to signal ratio of information out there is maybe a bit higher than everyone thinks. Back to basics prehaps?

 

ljones

SamLinder's picture
SamLinder
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Re: Back to basics

ljones,

The reason we in the U.S. constantly refer back to the Great Depression years is because we see unfortunate parallels to that same time period in spite of the intervening 80 years. See Dr. Martenson's blog today (In Their Own Words - Economic Quotes) for a prime example of that.

Re the price of oil. Simple economics - demand drives the price. After the price of oil skyrocketed last summer, demand for oil dropped off dramatically. So much so that oil is being kept in storage tanks and huge oil tankers all over the world as companies wait for better pricing. When demand picks back up, so will the price. Even now we are seeing the price of oil slowly creep back up.

One thing you have probably noticed about this site is that Dr. Martenson's Crash Course was designed to educate you with hard facts without politicizing or selling anything. Also, he has made, and continues to make, great efforts to link back to any information he presents so that you can go to the source and check the facts for yourself. In fact, one of the posting rules is that you, and the rest of us, are expected to provide traceback links with all postings to avoid "opinions and guesstimations".

As for the graphs, some of them are incomprehensible to me as well. So, you can always do what I do. Simply ask the person who posted the graph to explain what it means. Folks on this site are pretty friendly, for the most part, and are always willing to explain and help you understand.

I hope I answered some of your questions. If not, please continue to post and ask further questions. There are a lot brighter minds on this site than mine!

Vanityfox451's picture
Vanityfox451
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Posts: 1636
Re: Back to basics

Hi Jones,

I'm from the UK too, though I've escaped to Europe back in early October last year......

I hear where you're coming from yet, I'm feeling very much that we're sitting in the eye of the storm right now. Here's Gail The Actuaries take from back in late March that more than raised a few eyebrows :-

The Oil Drum - March 25th

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/5230

Then there's a piece that DamnTheMatrix (Mike) put up on a thread earlier today that needs more merit for the American audience to gain a perspective from :-

Matt Simmons - A Glut Of Bum Data (Very Candid)

http://www.worldenergysource.com/wes/stores/1/A-Glut-of-Bum-Data-P1278C109.aspx

With the unemployment statistics raging toward 2.2 million in the UK and house prices crashing below 2003 prices, there are a great many things that should be front-line news instead of Peter Andre's break up with Jordan (Uk topical only !!), the so called Swine Flu 'Pandemic' or Clare Short being dragged across the political coals taking centre stage. Much could be taken into account with the undisclosed amount of 'printed from thin air' money that the Bank Of England is achieving within the 'Best Interests' of the general Public(sic!).

Proven declines in the North Sea oil fields have been mapped since the turn of this century as being in irreparable decline. Much of the imported gas is coming via pipeline from Europe, with the vast majority of gas for Europe coming from Russia, who are not only now in registered and not speculative decline, but with their oil it looks as though they'll be unable to export any by 2017 so as to keep their economy rolling, with gas exports following within the following decade.

As a rule of thumb, it's been noted that some 50,000 old age pensioners died from hyporthermia related conditions due to the price of heating their homes in 2007\2008. That figure isn't bandied about too loudly either, but is surely a sign of things to come, even in such a wealthy western country as the UK.

No, we're not in the greatest place. Call this supposed quiet, "setting the stage for the main act", in, of and around mid 2010 at the very latest - speculation aside...

These are strange times Jones, I bet you couldn't disagree with me at all on that...

Best,

Paul

Gungnir's picture
Gungnir
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Re: Back to basics

Not to worry, wasn't Gordon Brown across in the US in April telling Obama how to save the world financial markets.

I'm a former Brit, living in the US, so I can see why you have some confusion as to why this applies. So first and foremost, the US Dollar is the underpinning currency of the world economy. So even though this doesn't on the surface seem to have any impact on Europe, or the UK it does. The Dollar is controlled more or less by the Federal Reserve bank.

Next Peak oil this impacts everyone, in particular non-oil producing nations I'm throwing the UK into that bucket because most North Sea Oil is not Light Sweet Crude, but Heavy Crude Oil, and most fuels are made out of light sweet crude oils not heavy crude. As Oil production falls, oil producing nations sell only their surplus, well at some point their surplus will be zero, even before that point the price of oil will skyrocket, making the peaks of last year look like small potatoes.

I don't know whether you're old enough to remember, but I know Paul is, 1975 UK inflation was running at about 25% there were strikes in pretty much all industries, for the next few years, it was a crazy time. As a kid I remember having to economize, quite a bit as much more of the family budget went into buying food rather than other non-essentials.

So adding together a complete dollar collapse, which is near imminent (the only thing preventing it right now is the US Government pumping trillions of dollars into the system by hocking our grand childrens family silver) the effects on the international trade markets will be huge, to the point that it's difficult to actually figure out how it will all come down. It won't be pretty though, we're heading into a global depression that might make the Great Depression look like a recession. This doesn't just include the US either, Sterling is tied very closely to the Dollar, as is the Euro. As the dollar collapses, then so will those currencies, or somehow get unentangled in short order. The price of imports rise, and the UK has a very small export market, except for financials, which is exactly where the collapse is happening.

So how will this hit the UK, inflation/deflation the like of which hasn't been seen since WW2, there's a good chance that imports will dry up, causing shortages of certain produce in stores. Not to mention electronics, cars, etc. If this happens, then there will be protests likely riots. The big hit happens when the price of fossil fuels increases beyond affordability especially as Natural Gas is probably the most common form of heating and cooking in the UK. Other forms of fuels in the UK for instance coal is now pretty low grade where iit's mined at all. Alternatives such as Hydro are used but not enough to power the national grid.

So this is how the whole deal is going to impact the UK

 

LogansRun's picture
LogansRun
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Re: Back to basics

Your Bank of England is in just as much controll of this crash as OUR FED!  BoE is just as demonic as our FED and is as much at fault in different ways.  ALL Central Banks are BAD!  Any independant entity that is printing a sovereigns money is BAD..... 

Keep reading, it will come to you and if you have questions on anything....just ask.

Gungnir's picture
Gungnir
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Re: Back to basics

Actually that's not entirely accurate.

Fractional reserve system was invented by Amsterdam goldsmiths not the BoE, the Fed also provides the international reserve currency, so are in a higher position of responsibility than the BoE, and the expectation of the world was that the Fed would be responsible, unfortunately they kind of forgot that. This was negotiated (to some people with the US in a position of unfair advantage) at the beginning of WW2 in the Bretton Woods system. Of course maybe when this system began to break down due to the US balance of payments problems then the international community should have seen that the writing was on the wall this was in 1968. So in 1971 the BoE free floated sterling, and soon the remaining currencies followed.

So yes the BoE is not a force for good, but somehow the Fed (who at the time had existed for 9 years in comparison to the BoE which was established in 1694) got control of the Keys to the Worlds safe, and subsequently plundered it for the next 69+ years. To draw an analogy on this, the BoE joining a Dollar based system run by the Fed is like budgeting your income and savings while giving your 4 year old all of your bank accounts, credit cards, and savings accounts for their personal use.

SamLinder's picture
SamLinder
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Re: Back to basics
Gungnir wrote:

Actually that's not entirely accurate.

Fractional reserve system was invented by Amsterdam goldsmiths not the BoE, the Fed also provides the international reserve currency, so are in a higher position of responsibility than the BoE, and the expectation of the world was that the Fed would be responsible, unfortunately they kind of forgot that. This was negotiated (to some people with the US in a position of unfair advantage) at the beginning of WW2 in the Bretton Woods system. Of course maybe when this system began to break down due to the US balance of payments problems then the international community should have seen that the writing was on the wall this was in 1968. So in 1971 the BoE free floated sterling, and soon the remaining currencies followed.

So yes the BoE is not a force for good, but somehow the Fed (who at the time had existed for 9 years in comparison to the BoE which was established in 1694) got control of the Keys to the Worlds safe, and subsequently plundered it for the next 69+ years. To draw an analogy on this, the BoE joining a Dollar based system run by the Fed is like budgeting your income and savings while giving your 4 year old all of your bank accounts, credit cards, and savings accounts for their personal use.

Small correction: Bretton Woods Conference was held from 1 July to 22 July 1944. 

Gungnir's picture
Gungnir
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Re: Back to basics

Damn it...

I originally remembered end of the war then double guessed myself.

SamLinder's picture
SamLinder
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Re: Back to basics
Gungnir wrote:

Damn it...

I originally remembered end of the war then double guessed myself.

That's what I like about this site. There's always someone around to keep an eye on us.

I'm lucky if I remember what I had for breakfast some days, so I know that if I goof in one of my posts, someone will be sure to let me know it!

For example, I count on you and others in the "Firearms Thread" to keep me well informed so that I don't do something stupid!

LogansRun's picture
LogansRun
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Re: Back to basics

Look at the history of the BofE and who is in controll and who has been in control for over 200yrs and you'll see what I'm talking about.  Yes, the FED over the past 60+yrs has been the driving force (front guy) but the BofE and it's ruling class are right in the middle of this mess and will continue to be until people wake up and say NO MORE.

Gungnir's picture
Gungnir
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Posts: 643
Re: Back to basics
LogansRun wrote:

Look at the history of the BofE and who is in controll and who has been in control for over 200yrs and you'll see what I'm talking about.  Yes, the FED over the past 60+yrs has been the driving force (front guy) but the BofE and it's ruling class are right in the middle of this mess and will continue to be until people wake up and say NO MORE.

If you could tell me who has been in control of the BoE for the past 200 years it would help me enormously in formulating a response.

LogansRun's picture
LogansRun
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Posts: 1443
Re: Back to basics

There has been a Rothschild included within the BofE since the early 1800's.

Nathan Mayer Rothschild (1777-1836, who once said: "I care not what puppet is placed upon the throne of England to rule the Empire on which the sun never sets. The man who controls Britain's money supply controls the British Empire, and I control the British money supply.") was the head of the bank in London, England, which was known as N. M. Rothschild and Sons (and has occupied the same premises since 1809, at 2 New Court, St. Swithin's Lane in London, near the Bank of England and Stock Exchange).

 

http://www.thetruthseeker.co.uk/article.asp?ID=840

Just the beginning.  Keep seeking the truth and you'll be surprised. 

Gungnir's picture
Gungnir
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Posts: 643
Re: Back to basics

Indeed their has been a Rothschilds have been closely tied to the BoE and many European banks for a very long time, and I never claimed that the BoE did no evil. However I don't see a director who's a Rothschild, and the Directors are granted their positions by the Crown which makes it difficult for the Rothschilds to be running the show. Also the whole Rothschild thing is getting tired, it was originally argued by Ezra Pound US Citizen and Fascist Sympathizer tried for Treason by the US after WW2, the other major candidate for pushing Rothchilds conspiracies is Fritz Springmeyer (White Separatist and Illuminati freak, imprisoned for a bomb plot).

If you know anything about the financial center of London, everywhere is close by, it's in the City of London Square Mile, everything is right beside everything else. I used to walk  from Bank Tube Station to Farringdon Street in 15 minutes (including a 5 minute stop off for Starbucks on Ludgate Hill), going past St Pauls Cathedral. The Financial center of London is tiny, right in about 5 minutes walk is the BoE, Stock Exchange Tower, Lloyds of London, Credit Suisse, and on and on and on. Proximity is not meaningful in this instance since the Financial institutions there needed to be within walking distance as many have been there since the early 1800's.

However conspiracy theories aside. The question remains, since the Fed holds control of the International Reserve Currency and we've seen where they've taken us. At the time that they were given control, they were infants in the Banking world, and to a large Degree that infancy has been shown in our current situation, when it lost control of debt. The Fed at the time it was given control had only really weathered the Great Depression for which its in certain circles accused of creating in the first place (not a good track record to be starting off on).

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