Australian Reserve Bank says we will miss the recession.

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straight's picture
straight
Status: Silver Member (Offline)
Joined: Aug 25 2008
Posts: 103
Australian Reserve Bank says we will miss the recession.

The RBA, Reserve Bank of Australia today stated that Australia is not going into a recession, we just missed it! [phew].

The RBA predicts growth for 2009 fiscal year at 0.25% [july 08 - june 09] . this is down from their prediction in sept 08 of 1.5% growth for the year, so we will not go into a recession. according to the RBA this is because the reserve bank cut rates aggressively, and will continue to do so [at a slower rate], and because of the stimulus package....

Housing will go up from here [still only about 7-10% off its all time highs] because occupancy rates are high and there is not much building atm.... never mind peoples ability to pay.

We are so screwed, these guys are clueless!

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/02/06/2484622.htm?section=business

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601080&sid=a7NWY8MjGcuw&refer=asia

jdownie's picture
jdownie
Status: Bronze Member (Offline)
Joined: Apr 7 2008
Posts: 58
Re: Australian Reserve Bank says we will miss the recession.

Not just clueless, they are lying through their teeth.

Australian Government deposits with the RBA are on collision course with zero. The Australian dollar is backed by nothing but worthless bankers paper. This is why the dollar crashed in 2008, the RBA had no assets to exchange for Australian dollars (its own liability) when the speculators began to sell. It was only a massive deposit by an 'overseas institution', read The Federal Reserve, that saved the day. Alas, the US dollar is also nothing but worthless bankers paper and will not save us.

I believe it is no coincidence that the State of NSW is bankrupt at the same time as the State of California.

I don't believe the Australian Navy shut down for several months just to give the sailors a break! More likely the navy blew its budget and the government purse is empty.

 

straight's picture
straight
Status: Silver Member (Offline)
Joined: Aug 25 2008
Posts: 103
Re: Australian Reserve Bank says we will miss the recession.

Im with you there jdownie... as soon as I read the post it thought, no thats not actually the case, they are not clueless... blind freddie can see whats happening OS, the last great depression didnt start in OZ, but it pretty much ended here, Australia was late coming out the other side. 

I actually think that all those clueless zombies buying houses using the '$20K First home buyers grant', might put forward a class action suit against the Govnt as the Govnt knows how bad it is going to get, yet it enticed those morons into the market with all this talk of us avoiding the global crash and free cash and first home buyers grants.

Rule one.  Dont trust Governments.

Rule two. See rule one.

straight's picture
straight
Status: Silver Member (Offline)
Joined: Aug 25 2008
Posts: 103
Re: Australian Reserve Bank says we will miss the recession.

 

Targa's picture
Targa
Status: Member (Offline)
Joined: Oct 11 2008
Posts: 6
Re: Australian Reserve Bank says we will miss the recession.

Yes the first home buyers grant for the better good of the wider economy is appaling. Remember China was suppossed to help us no end. Now there is no recession to worry about. Unemployment will detonate the housing bubble sooner or later. I thought they would try to stagnate the market to allow inflation to deflate the bubble over time. Fantasy in Oz is about to end.

 

Is there any evidence for the US Fed pumping the RBA? to help our exchange rate.

jdownie's picture
jdownie
Status: Bronze Member (Offline)
Joined: Apr 7 2008
Posts: 58
Re: Australian Reserve Bank says we will miss the recession.

Targa, go to www.rba.gov.au, Bulletin Statistical Tables, Liabilities & Assets-monthly.

If you have been following the situation, you'll remember at the end of 2008 the 'swap-lines' between the Fed and various central banks including the RBA, which by the way have just been extended until the end of 2009.

Look at what happens to the balance sheet of the RBA at that time.

Targa's picture
Targa
Status: Member (Offline)
Joined: Oct 11 2008
Posts: 6
Re: Australian Reserve Bank says we will miss the recession.

 

Gold and foreign exchange 1  

from RBA Statement of A & L for Feb 4 2009. Notice how gold is lumped with F/ex.

I don't have excel on my mac, otherwise  I'd list a June 08 for comparison, with the rise in the relevant liability.

$72 623

in $millions

 

 

 

wiking's picture
wiking
Status: Member (Offline)
Joined: Feb 9 2009
Posts: 5
Re: Australian Reserve Bank says we will miss the recession.

 

    The poor souls getting in hock for a house using the grant are lambs to the slaughter.

     Just more of the same, using credit to try to reinflate the bubble by suckering people into 

     loans to pump more demand into the housing market to forestall a crash.

 

    This is the rate trap in all its glory.  Rates are set low to entice more participants to borrow, that

     is to solve too much debt using guess what, more debt.   While penalising savers whose deposits

     at 5% will be eaten alive by inflation ( real rate ) of 10%.

 

       It stuns me how anyone would deposit cash in the bank when gold/silver will not be devalued by 

        inflation.   As for paper investments, they all seem extraordinarily risky.

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