Attempting to value gold

3 posts / 0 new
Last post
sundarb's picture
Status: Bronze Member (Offline)
Joined: Jan 10 2011
Posts: 72
Attempting to value gold


I found an interesting set of videos by the founder of Bullionvault, trying to put a fair value on gold.

It is a very tricky business, but I think he did a decent job navigating through it and he came up with a fair value around 3800$.

He uses probability of inflation % in baskets and tries to filter the probability of that really happening into the price of gold.

Another way to look at it may be using the Dow/gold ratio:

At 13,000 for Dow, then the price of gold to match a long-term ratio of 3 would be around $4000 an ounce.

I was wondering if you had any thoughts on this analysis?


nameofthegame's picture
Status: Member (Offline)
Joined: Sep 25 2012
Posts: 15
BullionVault is great but I

BullionVault is great but I think this is quite conservative a figure, even considering the article is over a year old when gold was around the $1,300 level if I remember right). And Peter Schiff and others have pointed out that the gold to Dow ratio would eventually get to nearer the 1:1 level before a correction does take place. Whether this means a Dow declining from 13,000 or whether gold and the Dow will meet somewhere beyond 13,000 is the mystery. I'd say above 13,000, but I might be thinking wishfully.

marktrading's picture
Status: Member (Offline)
Joined: Nov 12 2012
Posts: 1
Hi i am  gold and silver

Hi i am  gold and silver trader and new in this forum.

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.
Login or Register to post comments