atishoo, atishoo, we all fall down

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scepticus's picture
Status: Silver Member (Offline)
Joined: Jan 16 2009
Posts: 129
atishoo, atishoo, we all fall down

This stuff scares me way more than hyperinflation or deflation etc >>>>


"CAIRO, April 8 (Reuters) - The World Health Organisation is concerned
some Egyptians may carry the highly pathogenic bird flu virus without
showing symptoms, which could give it more of a chance to mutate to a
strain that spreads easily among humans.


Jabbour said the rise in infections in children without similar cases
among adults had triggered questions as to whether adults were being
infected with the virus but not falling ill.

"There is
something strange happening in Egypt. Why in children now and not in
adults?" he said. "We need to see if there are sub clinical cases in
the community."

Avian flu pandemic, rather than financial collapse is what really motivates me to keep that 3 month supply up to date...


bluestone's picture
Status: Gold Member (Offline)
Joined: Dec 29 2008
Posts: 263
Re: atishoo, atishoo, we all fall down



This is an interesting topic.  I agree that avian flu is a good thing to be aware of.  I listened to a medical review on avian flu a couple of years ago.  Of those infected, the mortality rate is >50%.  Most people dying are young (average age 19) and healthy.


Avian flu apparently is genetically similar to the influenza strain of 1918.  Estimates are anywhere from 20-100 million succombing to the influenza virus.  Researchers dug up frozen corpses from Alaska and isolated the virus.  Interestingly, many of the people who died from the influenza pandemic were young (average age 25) and healthy.    Not your garden variety influenza.


So far the virus has had a short incubation period and symptoms manifest quickly, making it relatively easy to quarantine those affected.  If the virus mutates so that it has a long incubation period (as your post suggests) and is of equal pathogenicity, we may very well see a pandemic.


(sorry, I don’t have references, will try to look those up)


BTW, there is a great read, called “The Last Town on Earth” by Thomas Mullen.  It is a fictional novel that takes place in a logging town in the Cascade mtns during the influenza pandemic.  The “last” town is the only town in the area not affected by the pandemic.  The town members institute a reverse quarantine and decide to shoot anybody that tries to ender their town.  Eventually they do succomb.   



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