Are you ready for the big one?

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investorzzo's picture
investorzzo
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Are you ready for the big one?

The Dow looks to be in the throes of a 420-point plunge, even if sellers were unable to deliver the haymaker yesterday that would have put bulls down for the count. At the final bell, the drop amounted to only 144 points, although it would have been closer to 200 points at the day’s lows.  If our prediction of a further 276-point fall over the very near-term pans out, pushing the blue chip average slightly below 10000, that would be just a very small downpayment on all of the plunging the Dow will still have to do to catch up with a U.S. and global economy that have begun to relapse into deep coma. Dow 5000, anybody?  Whatever happens, it seems clear already that the highs achieved by the broad averages earlier this month marked a last hurrah for the most recent bear-rally cycle, and that the major bear market begun from Dow 14198 in October of 2007 has resumed.

I bring this out, as more and more analysts are talking about a plunge of some kind in the next month. Hence, the comments about a bond buying of late. TIme to get cash ready for Gold, silver buying opp? Jon

http://www.rickackerman.com/2010/08/are-your-ready-for-the-big-one/

 

Diogenknees's picture
Diogenknees
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Posts: 109
Re: Are you ready for the big one?

Nobody knows. Charts, waves,  heads & shoulders. double dips, etc. all mean very little when the market is artificially propped up. The market hasn't been based on reality for the last ten years.

Subprime JD's picture
Subprime JD
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Posts: 562
Re: Are you ready for the big one?

The market hasn't been based on reality for the last ten years.

 

I respectfully disagree

From August to October of 2008 the market freaked out with the SPX dropping from 1300 to 750. In March of 2009 the market was melting down. Nothing the Treasury dept or the Fed could say at that point would change investors minds as confidence was shattered. It took exteme and unprecented measures from the monetery authorities to finally break investor fear. I clearly remember trading the march 09 lows betting long on expectation of some crazy gov intervention. I recall nasty 2% drops day after day, with the dow dropping from  9500 to 6500 in a matter of weeks. I remember Geithner fumbling the proposed PPIP bad asset program and the market bleeding red. CNBC shills were angry at Geithner and you could see the frustration in their eyes.

Finally, QE, a massive stimulis program, relaxing of wall street accounting rules and a pledge of free money to the gamblers unleashed the animal spirits and thus began the 80% bull market. Look what the country had to do in order to reverse the market collapse; we saved the stock market for a few years at the expense of the viability and reputation of our currency. There will be hell to pay for these actions down the road.

They can manipulate the market here and there. On low volume days they can pump it up. But when  Greek spreads hit 22% and the parliament building was almost overrun  in Athens with Fox Business News, CNBC, and Bloomberg all showing the scene on their screens and a -450 dow print in the corner, there is not much the fed or the algos can do to manipulate the market.

 

Peace

Diogenknees's picture
Diogenknees
Status: Silver Member (Offline)
Joined: Jun 25 2010
Posts: 109
Re: Are you ready for the big one?
bearmarkettrader wrote:

The market hasn't been based on reality for the last ten years.

 

I respectfully disagree

From August to October of 2008 the market freaked out with the SPX dropping from 1300 to 750. In March of 2009 the market was melting down. Nothing the Treasury dept or the Fed could say at that point would change investors minds as confidence was shattered. It took exteme and unprecented measures from the monetery authorities to finally break investor fear. I clearly remember trading the march 09 lows betting long on expectation of some crazy gov intervention. I recall nasty 2% drops day after day, with the dow dropping from  9500 to 6500 in a matter of weeks. I remember Geithner fumbling the proposed PPIP bad asset program and the market bleeding red. CNBC shills were angry at Geithner and you could see the frustration in their eyes.

Finally, QE, a massive stimulis program, relaxing of wall street accounting rules and a pledge of free money to the gamblers unleashed the animal spirits and thus began the 80% bull market. Look what the country had to do in order to reverse the market collapse; we saved the stock market for a few years at the expense of the viability and reputation of our currency. There will be hell to pay for these actions down the road.

They can manipulate the market here and there. On low volume days they can pump it up. But when  Greek spreads hit 22% and the parliament building was almost overrun  in Athens with Fox Business News, CNBC, and Bloomberg all showing the scene on their screens and a -450 dow print in the corner, there is not much the fed or the algos can do to manipulate the market.

 

Peace

 

The point is it has not been a free market for ten years, it's been a series of manipulated bubbles. Since the housing market collapse there has been no good news that should result in a Dow of over 10,000, nothing has changed since March 2009 that wasn't the result of massive intervention by the Fed and the Treasury.

ao's picture
ao
Status: Diamond Member (Offline)
Joined: Feb 4 2009
Posts: 2220
Re: Are you ready for the big one?
Diogenknees wrote:

The point is it has not been a free market for ten years, it's been a series of manipulated bubbles. Since the housing market collapse there has been no good news that should result in a Dow of over 10,000, nothing has changed since March 2009 that wasn't the result of massive intervention by the Fed and the Treasury.

The point is, it's probably never been a free market.  Recall the article by Matt Taibbi about GS, the great American bubble machine and how they've been doing this since at least 1929.  Recall Daniel Drew and his historical market manipulations.  Recall the Rothschilds and their market manipulations.  Think of the book, This Time is Different.  I'm sure you realize it's not a coincidence that one of the most successful groups of investors in the country are U.S. Senators.

There's nothing new under the sun in this area.   

 

 

Diogenknees's picture
Diogenknees
Status: Silver Member (Offline)
Joined: Jun 25 2010
Posts: 109
Re: Are you ready for the big one?
ao wrote:
Diogenknees wrote:

The point is it has not been a free market for ten years, it's been a series of manipulated bubbles. Since the housing market collapse there has been no good news that should result in a Dow of over 10,000, nothing has changed since March 2009 that wasn't the result of massive intervention by the Fed and the Treasury.

The point is, it's probably never been a free market.  Recall the article by Matt Taibbi about GS, the great American bubble machine and how they've been doing this since at least 1929.  Recall Daniel Drew and his historical market manipulations.  Recall the Rothschilds and their market manipulations.  Think of the book, This Time is Different.  I'm sure you realize it's not a coincidence that one of the most successful groups of investors in the country are U.S. Senators.

There's nothing new under the sun in this area.   

I can agree there has always been attempts at manipulation of the market,  but without the instantaneous communication and computer trading of the last ten years it wasn't on near the same scale as it is now . This is readily apparent when the market can drop 9.2% in minutes .

dshields's picture
dshields
Status: Platinum Member (Offline)
Joined: Oct 24 2009
Posts: 599
Re: Are you ready for the big one?

the fed moves into the markets as of late if it looks like there is going to be a bad one.  they use their minions to buy (or sell) to support prices.  the DOW for instance should be something like maybe 6000 right now and it is hanging out around 10000.  it does not make sense because it is not operating as a free market.  government intervention is distorting it.  all kinds of bad numbers today.  bad housing and bad durable goods.  it is making a trend.  all bad.  and yet, every time the equities market takes a dive somehow it just comes back up again.  it is busted and scary.  they can not keep doing that forever.

i just keep doing a very widely diversified dollar cost averaging gig and hope that it recovers before i get old and die.  it might not and i will not be any worse off than if dug a hole in the back yard and put the money in there.  pretty sad.

i work in inter-bank foreign exchange.  it looks like the BOJ is intervening in that market and selling yen and buying dollars to try to force the yen down lately.  no telling what the fed is up to there.  it is all secret.  they should have had the fed audit.  i would love to find out what the fed has really been up to.  no conspiracy theories, no guessing - just the real numbers.  i bet if we knew we would all be shocked speechless.

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