Are We Headed for a Commercial Property Catastrophe?

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investorzzo's picture
investorzzo
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investorzzo's picture
investorzzo
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ccpetersmd's picture
ccpetersmd
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Re: Are We Headed for a Commercial Property Catastrophe?

Yes, I believe the commercial real estate market is one of the next dominoes to fall.

Until about six months ago, I had planned to build a professional office building, for my business, and extra space to lease or condo. I even had land picked out (but not purchased), a contractor, and an architect. I dropped out when things started to look especially bleak, and after getting through the Crash Course. I am so thankful that I did so.

In Iowa, as in much of the non-industrial midwest, we have been relatively unscathed by the residential housing market bubble burst (which was not much of a bubble, truth be told), but we are beginning to see the signs of the overall economic slowdown in terms of the commercial real estate market.

In short, if it can happen here, and it is, it will be a major phenomenon elsewhere in the country. 

plantguy90's picture
plantguy90
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Re: Are We Headed for a Commercial Property Catastrophe?

It looks like an Ayn Rand novel here in my neck of the woods, with so many shops closed in the nearby towns.   

A. M.'s picture
A. M.
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Re: Are We Headed for a Commercial Property Catastrophe?

Plantguy,

Same around here. There is a "For Sale" sign hanging above every 3rd or 4th house.

It's amazing. Where are these people trying to go?
They can't afford to stay, and they can't afford to move.

Strange world. All the problems are man-made.

Ready's picture
Ready
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Re: Are We Headed for a Commercial Property Catastrophe?
Aaron Moyer wrote:

Strange world. All the problems are man-made.

True. Too bad we have gone too far now to un-make them.

I believe we have reached a tipping point - a point of no return where even if another no other action was taken by the Fed or USGov, we would still be carried into a crash by our inertia alone. I simply cannot, try as I might, find a plan that allows us to undo what we have done. I hope I am being cynical and someone smarter than me can figure it out!

Best?

Rog

A. M.'s picture
A. M.
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Re: Are We Headed for a Commercial Property Catastrophe?

Rog,

I think you're right. Not to sound like a doom-sayer or a panic button pusher, because I think it's absolutely necessary to re-route the human race onto a path that doesn't include completely destroying what little we've got left on our way out.

This may well be looked on historically as the beginning of the modern dark ages.

But better it happen on our watch than our grandchildren, who'd be even farther removed from the skills needed to survive.

Cheers!

Aaron

mpelchat's picture
mpelchat
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Re: Are We Headed for a Commercial Property Catastrophe?

Rog,

There is a plan, it is a basic plan.

1) let what is not solvent fail, that is what bankruptcy is intended.

2) Change the USA monetary system, (get off the fiat system) to another USA monetary system.

3) Live within our means, this may take some time to find our what is within our means with regard to jobs changing deflation of some commodities and inflation of other.  The rule of "Supply and Demand" will fix this is short time given a true free-market ((little government intervention, with intelligent stable regulation)).

4) change society to one that is sustainable (renewable energy, organic farming, community)

Sounds great, however can this happen.

1) the insolvent are the ones that own the government officials ((lobbyists and campaign funds))

2) Without fiat how can the bankers keep on printing cash at will, hard to see this change

3) Government intervention and programs are all set for spending not being responsible.  So we must take the path less traveled and focus on simplifying our lives.  ((it is a rocky one at times))

4) This one is more under our control, so I say we continue to work on this aspect of a plan.  If we can dislodge ourselves from the "Machine".  The less it can control us. 

We can not control money and we can not control government ((all be it we can put pressure, have not given up hope on this but it is hard at times)).  Seems to me our focus is clear, being self-reliant and responsible is all we can do with some pressure.

Interesting:  being self-reliant and responsible, aren't these the things that made the USA great from the revolution till WWII.  Guess it is just getting back to basic ideals is what we need to do.

Thanks for reading my ramblings.

  

joe2baba's picture
joe2baba
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Re: Are We Headed for a Commercial Property Catastrophe?

depending where you are. there is already a commercial property catastrophe here

SPM's picture
SPM
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Re: Are We Headed for a Commercial Property Catastrophe?

Same here Joe.

I live in a cheaper part of Los Angeles County. When the housing market really took off many people moved out this way. The average cost of a home in LA, Ventura County was $500K to $1M. For the last 5 years they have been adding homes, strip malls, you name it. Now they all sit half finished, or with one shop occupied, and the rest with For Lease signs in the windows. Construction here has halted. There are home forclosure auctions every day.  

I am also a believe of some of what Gerald Celente predicts. It kind of seems like common sense, to me. I think people are already starting to focus on spending money only on whats the most important for them. I think a market built on excess, is already on the way out. For me, and I could be wrong, but I just do not see things going back to the way they were.

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