Anyone fancy a gamble?

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barrt's picture
barrt
Status: Silver Member (Offline)
Joined: Aug 25 2008
Posts: 171
Anyone fancy a gamble?

HIya

I thought some of you might be the gambling type. so i thought i would share an idea, one where you can lose or win a lot of money in the face of whats happening in the US (perhaps theres not much to lose in a monetary sense but thats another story) and remember this is only for gamblers, its not investment advice ok?

1 Options trading.
These guys are making a killing trading options (where you profit when the share price goes down, different to short selling), you can sign up for the service and get up to the second buy and sell instructions, they are currently doubling their readers money nearly every day on trades, no joke - i have been a subscriber for months and have struggled to get a options trading account going in the country where i live (difficult!) while watching all the juicy trades go by! - http://www.angelpub.com/pubs/otp 

Here is their record, i have frustratingly watched the last 20 or so go by and so i at least, know for sure they are legit ;-)

Company Symbol Exchange Buy Date Sell Date Bought Sold Gain/Loss
American Express January 2009 17.50 put -- exited half AXPMQ.x option 2008-11-12 2008-11-13 $2.50 $4.25 70.00%
American International Group January 2009 5 call - exited half AILAA.x option 2008-09-17 2008-10-06 $0.60 $1.20 100.00%
American International Group January 2009 5 call - exited half AILAA.x option 2008-09-17 2008-10-02 $0.60 $1.35 125.00%
Coca Cola Enterprises November 20 put - From Options Blog CCEWD.x option 2008-05-28 2008-07-21 $1.05 $3.80 261.90%
CurrencyShares British Pound Sterling December 2008 177 put -- exited half FFKXU.x option 2008-09-03 2008-09-11 $4.70 $5.90 25.53%
CurrencyShares British Pound Sterling December 2008 177 put -- exited half FFKXU.x option 2008-09-03 2008-09-12 $4.70 $3.70 -21.28%
Expedia Inc. October 22.50 put - From Options Blog UEDVX.x option 2008-05-28 2008-07-21 $1.80 $5.10 183.33%
Fannie Mae December 2008 9 put - From Options Blog NJWXH.x option 2008-07-14 2008-08-21 $3.80 $5.55 46.05%
Financial Select Sector SPDR (XLF) January 2009 13 put -- exited half XJZMM.x option 2008-11-11 2008-11-13 $1.48 $2.40 62.16%
Freddie Mac January 2009 6 put - From Options Blog FREMQ.x option 2008-07-14 2008-08-21 $2.50 $3.60 44.00%
JA Solar September 15 call - From Options Blog QJPIC.x option 2008-08-11 2008-08-21 $1.60 $3.40 112.50%
Lehman Brothers January 2009 10 put - reiterated buy -- exited half NJSMB.x option 2008-09-09 2008-09-11 $4.20 $6.25 48.81%
Lehman Brothers January 2009 10 put - reiterated buy -- exited half NJSMB.x option 2008-09-09 2008-09-15 $4.20 $9.85 134.52%
Lehman Brothers January 2009 10 put -- exited half NJSMB.x option 2008-09-09 2008-09-15 $3.20 $9.85 207.81%
Lehman Brothers January 2009 10 put -- exited half NJSMB.x option 2008-09-09 2008-09-11 $3.20 $6.25 95.31%
Lehman Brothers October 20 put - From Options Blog LYHVE.x option 2008-06-02 2008-07-21 $3.00 $8.65 188.33%
Masco Corporation October 20 put - From Options Blog MASVD.x option 2008-06-02 2008-07-21 $3.00 $4.80 60.00%
Merrill Lynch January 2009 17.50 put MOJMW.x option 2008-09-11 2008-09-15 $3.10 $2.80 -9.68%
MetLife January 2009 50 call METAJ.x option 2008-10-03 2008-10-23 $6.10 $0.35 -94.26%
Morgan Stanley January 2009 25 put - exited half MSME.x option 2008-09-15 2008-09-18 $6.20 $7.00 12.90%
Morgan Stanley January 2009 25 put - exited half MSME.x option 2008-09-16 2008-09-17 $6.20 $10.60 70.97%
Murphy Oil October 2008 70 put MURVN.x option 2008-09-03 2008-09-09 $3.30 $5.35 62.12%
Overstock.com January 2009 10 put -- exited half QKTMB.x option 2008-11-05 2008-11-10 $1.75 $2.40 37.14%
Overstock.com January 2009 10 put -- exited half QKTMB.x option 2008-11-05 2008-11-12 $1.75 $2.60 48.57%
PowerShares QQQ January 2009 30 put -- exited half QAVMD.x option 2008-11-06 2008-11-12 $2.35 $3.35 42.55%
UBS AG September 2008 22.50 put - From Options Blog UJWUX.x option 2008-06-10 2008-07-21 $1.30 $1.85 42.31%
iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index December 2008 32 put - exited half EEMXB.x option 2008-09-29 2008-10-10 $3.80 $9.75 156.58%
iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index January 2009 26 call EEMAX.x option 2008-10-14 2008-10-23 $5.00 $1.80 -64.00%
iShares Russell 2000 Index December 2008 45 put IQXXS.x option 2008-10-23 2008-10-31 $3.85 $2.40 -37.66%

Options Trading Pit - Current Open Positions

Company Symbol Exchange Buy Date Status Price Current Gain/Loss
AMAG Pharmaceuticals December 2008 30 put AVMXF.x option 2008-11-19 Buy $3.00 $4.30 43.33%
American Express January 2009 17.50 put -- exited half AXPMQ.x option 2008-11-12 Hold $2.50 $4.00 60.00%
Financial Select Sector SPDR (XLF) January 2009 13 put -- exited half XJZMM.x option 2008-11-12 Hold $1.48 $3.80 156.76%
PowerShares QQQ January 2009 30 put -- exited half QAVMD.x option 2009-11-06 Buy $2.35 $4.83 105.53%

They give some reasonable help to the begginer (me) and if you have a good trading acccount you will get help from them trading options too. Dont be put off just because of the seeming complexity at first

Perhaps if you have a few bucks in a wobbly old bank somewhere you may as well have a gamble with it no? a few thousand dollars split over a small amount of trades could quickly snowball. Over the next few weeks its almost certain that there will be lots more compainies going into digfficulties and this service can help you exploit that, take some money back from Wall St too yeah!

then;

1. Buy Gold/ Other currencies

With this site - www.bullionvault.com you can buy gold with your ill gotten gains from the above, then (perhaps) as the dollar looks like its topping out you can sell it into either euros or pounds (sadly none of the better currencies) or of course stay in gold, from within the same account. They say the dont report to the UK taxman and they bank with Lloyds Bank, a UK bank thats part goverment owned now so hopefully fairly solid. You can opt to allocate the gold, in your name, in vaults in either the UK, US or switzerland too so you could possibly get your winnings from the options trading out of the system and out of the country too - I know its not phsical gold in your possession but thats another story too

anyway, thats what im doing once i get this f(**7ng trading account open!

DISCLAIMER
Please remeber; 1 That i am a noobie at this stuff and i dont know what im doing. Im also pissed. and 2 That you should take investmetn advice from a professional before ....blah blah blah....

 Oh and please, I know that you 'But you must have phsical gold' and 'what good is gold in Switzerland if they confiscate?' and 'you shouldnt profit from others demise Bart!' and 'what good is that if its all going to sh*t anyway?' and 'thats very irresponsible of you Bart; but thats all another story eh?

Good luck amigos and remember..... its only a fu**ing bubble, life goes on. Laughing

Bart

 

barrt's picture
barrt
Status: Silver Member (Offline)
Joined: Aug 25 2008
Posts: 171
Re: Anyone fancy a gamble?

this is all tongue in cheek right guys......?

.... I would like to add to this points 3, 4 and 5; (presuming of course that stage 1 & 2 above was wildly successful and you now have tons of gold but now living in a bleak world)

3 Buy some land in paradise (timing perfectly your gold sales, currency moves and the local housing slump bottom) Costa rica: www.visitcostarica.com Or Costa del Sol, Spain: www.miparcela.com Or Austrailia (See Damthematrix for directions) Or New Zealand www.immigration.govt.nz

- All those are underpopulated, tiny goverment/ authority countries, still largely live off the land, undeveloped systems/ simple/ traditional, great weather (see Global Warming)  (See also; Various Other Countries With Positive Happy Futures.) Not too many guns etc etc.

4 Be wise with your new found wealth!
When all others loose there's, if you can only preserve yours (see Gold), then you my son, are wealthy (by comparisson) - and so have moral and social obligations to do right with it) at some point in the future convert your gold into the local currency and invest nicely and positivley in the community, spread the wealth. Start a local currency even! http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Local_currency -

-your chance to have a large, postitive influence perhaps? (assuming of course you made squillions with points 1 & 2 above)  The possibilities are endless if you look past the disaster. Problems are oportunities dont forget

5 Get to know people and help out.
Do what you can for you neighbour as it always comes back in threes. knock down your fence dont put one up. Parties not problems. Gifts not guns

6 Get a satellite connection and solar power
Life support in paradise, enough to run the family food freezer, laptops for communications and errr... other stuff... expand the new technology locally. Encourage and build up the energy/ info/ communication needs of the local community.

7 Organise with like minded people, influence the future in positive ways, help local people set up business with your Wall St era plunders and tales of yonder fair maiden, love and loss.

All this from your measly $2000 little startup fund in Step 1 above! I rest my case.

PS remember the finacial disclaimer above ok? i have no clue about any of this "investing" stuff and talk of treasure.

Bart

barrt's picture
barrt
Status: Silver Member (Offline)
Joined: Aug 25 2008
Posts: 171
Re: Anyone fancy a gamble?

folks im bumping this thread cos it didnt get a single comment (ok i was drunk but wasnt it a great fantasy?)

if its crap just say so, just gimme a comment! please!

the way i see it is that the sand castles we're all standing on are crumbling and the above is a way to scoop up some of that sand and save it for a rainy day before all the sand turns to piss, no?

i mean, call me a romantic, call me a fool, but make a coment people!

(and by the way those last 4 trades all closed with huge gains, ill post them if your interested)

the world is changing, why not take advantage? it doesnt have to be in a senesless, greedy way. think of it as salvage why not?

come on, lets take over the world!!

Damnthematrix's picture
Damnthematrix
Status: Diamond Member (Offline)
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Posts: 3998
Re: Anyone fancy a gamble?

you must be kidding barrt....

barrt's picture
barrt
Status: Silver Member (Offline)
Joined: Aug 25 2008
Posts: 171
Re: Anyone fancy a gamble?

im not dtm i swear, im starting to see the idea as some sort of noble robin hood type opportunity. im still trying to go for it but living in the wilderness with no local bank account etc....

(im a beach bum in a hammock with a laptop incase you were wondering, no city tyoe ok dude? Cool )

jutto's picture
jutto
Status: Member (Offline)
Joined: Nov 24 2008
Posts: 2
Re: Anyone fancy a gamble?

well ill give it a shot. i got an account with optionsxpress.com with a couple hundred bucks. how do you want to work this?

Ray Hewitt's picture
Ray Hewitt
Status: Gold Member (Offline)
Joined: Apr 5 2008
Posts: 458
Re: Anyone fancy a gamble?

the world is changing, why not take advantage? it doesnt have to be in a senesless, greedy way. think of it as salvage why not?

After taking Chris's course i see why there are so many neo-Malthusians on this site. What they see as the world economy running out of energy and resources, I see as an incredible opportunity for investing in energy, resource and mining stocks. It's too early now, but a time will come when this correction will have completed its course.

ckessel's picture
ckessel
Status: Martenson Brigade Member (Offline)
Joined: Nov 12 2008
Posts: 483
Re: Anyone fancy a gamble?
hewittr wrote:

After taking Chris's course i see why there are so many neo-Malthusians on this site. What they see as the world economy running out of energy and resources, I see as an incredible opportunity for investing in energy, resource and mining stocks. It's too early now, but a time will come when this correction will have completed its course.

So does that mean that you are cashing in your gold and buying energy, mining and resource stocks?

barrt's picture
barrt
Status: Silver Member (Offline)
Joined: Aug 25 2008
Posts: 171
Re: Anyone fancy a gamble?

well this is my plan anyway, ive already moved to one of those wonderful countries, ive started buying some gold and im currently buying the recommendations of the Options Trading Pit guys, they are on fire, those 4 open trades above were all closed out for over 60% gains, (ill posdt details if you want) in under a week! they have since closed another 6 or so, one loss and the rest, over 60% in a week, some over 100%

i dont get why everone isnt doing it, "Problems are Opportunities" is a great motto to keep in front of you, makes you kind of indestructable. Boy am i having fun!!

and before you start, making money doesnt have to be evil, it isnt with me, im no saint but i love helping people when i can and if i get rich it will be spread around and used for good, ive several projects in the pipeline at the moment, one for cheap, afforable, reasonably green buildings which is up and running and the other for cheap, affordable solar power, which is at prototype testing stage. It wont change the world but it might just make my little community in the sunshine a nicer place to live.

You can always be positive no matter how negative it gets if you want to.

..... ahhemmm...Sorry about that, i was beggining to feel a bit guilty about making money and wanted to pre-empt any talk of greed or "thats what got us into this mess" type talk ok guys?

all the best

barrt

ckessel's picture
ckessel
Status: Martenson Brigade Member (Offline)
Joined: Nov 12 2008
Posts: 483
Re: Anyone fancy a gamble?
barrt wrote:

You can always be positive no matter how negative it gets if you want to.

..... ahhemmm...Sorry about that, i was beggining to feel a bit guilty about making money and wanted to pre-empt any talk of greed or "thats what got us into this mess" type talk ok guys?

all the best

barrt

Hey Barrt,

You don't need to feel bad about taking money that you worked so hard for. On the positive side, you could open up a bank and start doing some fractional reserve lending to those of us trying to get our farms started!  Just joking with you!

Best of luck at the Casino!

Coop

Brainless's picture
Brainless
Status: Silver Member (Offline)
Joined: Dec 9 2008
Posts: 150
Re: Anyone fancy a gamble?

I bought some puts last april in a financial, handsome profit (1800% gain!!). Unfortunately completely gone with the losses on shares. Actually that is what a put option is good for, protecting against losses on your shares.

I was just lucky to have those few put options that were very cheap to buy as it saved my ass, cheap insurance in uncertain times..

Now those put options are rather expensive and the risk of loosing your investment is very real. In times like these rallies are common. Finding a bottom or top or even close to those is extremely difficult.

But if you find a put option for little money and with an expire date of at least 6 months it can be a moneymaker when there is another crash of the stockmarket within that timeframe.

Actually when you trade you can create your own personal bubble. This is extremely dangerous when you don't know what you are doing. As long as you go long (meaning you buy an option) the risk is what you paid for it. When you go short (selling an option) you have the risk a share goes to zero when you have written a put option and unlimeted risk when you wrote a call option. The banks need a margin when you go short. And there is exactly where the problem is and the cause of your personal bubble. If you sold put options expecting the market to move sideways or up everything is smooth and money is made, when it goes down and unfortunately going down is always faster. Compare it to climbing a mountain and skiing down.

When the market goes down the margins get higher and higher. For that reason alone you should keep a 100% margin for your own good. If you use the  margin the bank allows, sometimes as low as 5% then you are in deep doodoo when the margin percentages change or the stock go down a lot. I have seen margin percentages go from 5% to 100% in a few days. That would mean a margin of 1.000US$ can grow to 20.000 US$. Multiply that example with the number of option and you can see that you can easily get into hundreds of thousand of extra needed margin. reason for some to jump out of a window.

 

jutto's picture
jutto
Status: Member (Offline)
Joined: Nov 24 2008
Posts: 2
Re: Anyone fancy a gamble?

I guess thats why he calls it a gamble and not an investment. anyways it sounds like fun. im willing to play.

Brainless's picture
Brainless
Status: Silver Member (Offline)
Joined: Dec 9 2008
Posts: 150
Re: Anyone fancy a gamble?

I just try to clear up that it is not always a gamble (like in a casino). If you do it wrong you can loose a lot more than you put on the table.

 

cat233's picture
cat233
Status: Platinum Member (Offline)
Joined: Aug 20 2008
Posts: 575
Anyone fancy a gamble? CAUTION!!!!

Caution!!!  OptionsXpress has paper trading, I would suggest you do just that before using real money.  You will find how quickly one WILL lose money as well as make money.   Currently many options are inflated in price.  How would you know so if you haven’t had any experience trading???  I really send out a huge note of caution for others not to put a real dime into options until you have been educated in the proper manner to do so.  Options are not an investment, yes they can be insurance.... But if you are viewing options as a vehicle to quickly make money without the proper education,  you should consider yourself a fool.   You need to understand the rules of the market.

This isn’t a game, I trade options for living.  I have been doing so for seven years.  If you view options as a game, you are going to lose more than your shirt.   Daily I spend several hours studying the market and doing homework.  If you view this as gambling that is exactly what you will be doing. 

Cat

 From the Options Industry Council...What is an Option?An option is a contract to buy or sell a specific financial product officially known as the option's underlying instrument or underlying interest. For equity options, the underlying instrument is a stock, exchange-traded fund (ETF), or similar product. The contract itself is very precise. It establishes a specific price, called the strike price, at which the contract may be exercised, or acted on. And it has an expiration date. When an option expires, it no longer has value and no longer exists.Options come in two varieties, calls and puts, and you can buy or sell either type. You make those choices - whether to buy or sell and whether to choose a call or a put - based on what you want to achieve as an options investor. Buying and Selling If you buy a call, you have the right to buy the underlying instrument at the strike price on or before the expiration date. If you buy a put, you have the right to sell the underlying instrument on or before expiration. In either case, as the option holder, you also have the right to sell the option to another buyer during its term or to let it expire worthless.The situation is different if you write, or "sell to open", an option. Selling to open a short option position obligates you, the writer, to fulfill your side of the contract if the holder wishes to exercise. When you sell a call as an opening transaction, you're obligated to sell the underlying interest at the strike price, if you're assigned. When you sell a put as an opening transaction, you're obligated to buy the underlying interest, if assigned. As a writer, you have no control over whether or not a contract is exercised, and you need to recognize that exercise is always possible at any time until the expiration date. But just as the buyer can sell an option back into the market rather than exercising it, as a writer you can purchase an offsetting contract, provided you have not been assigned, and end your obligation to meet the terms of the contract. When offsetting a short option position, you would enter a "buy to close" transaction.At a Premium When you buy an option, the purchase price is called the premium. If you sell, the premium is the amount you receive. The premium isn't fixed and changes constantly - so the premium you pay today is likely to be higher or lower than the premium yesterday or tomorrow. What those changing prices reflect is the give and take between what buyers are willing to pay and what sellers are willing to accept for the option. The point at which there's agreement becomes the price for that transaction, and then the process begins again.If you buy options, you start out with what's known as a net debit. That means you've spent money you might never recover if you don't sell your option at a profit or exercise it. And if you do make money on a transaction, you must subtract the cost of the premium from any income you realize to find your net profit.As a seller, on the other hand, you begin with a net credit because you collect the premium. If the option is never exercised, you keep the money. If the option is exercised, you still get to keep the premium, but are obligated to buy or sell the underlying stock if you're assigned.The Value of Options What a particular options contract is worth to a buyer or seller is measured by how likely it is to meet their expectations. In the language of options, that's determined by whether or not the option is, or is likely to be, in-the-money or out-of-the-money at expiration. A call option is in-the-money if the current market value of the underlying stock is above the exercise price of the option, and out-of-the-money if the stock is below the exercise price. A put option is in-the-money if the current market value of the underlying stock is below the exercise price and out-of-the-money if it is above it. If an option is not in-the-money at expiration, the option is assumed to be worthless.An option's premium has two parts: an intrinsic value and a time value. Intrinsic value is the amount by which the option is in-the-money. Time value is the difference between whatever the intrinsic value is and what the premium is. The longer the amount of time for market conditions to work to your benefit, the greater the time value. Options Prices

Several factors, including supply and demand in the market where the option is traded, affect the price of an option, as is the case with an individual stock. What's happening in the overall investment markets and the economy at large are two of the broad influences. The identity of the underlying instrument, how it traditionally behaves, and what it is doing at the moment are more specific ones. Its volatility is also an important factor, as investors attempt to gauge how likely it is that an option will move in-the-money.

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