Anybody care to opine on what Bennie Bananas says at Jax Hole tomorrow?

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SagerXX's picture
SagerXX
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Anybody care to opine on what Bennie Bananas says at Jax Hole tomorrow?

I thought it might be interesting to collect opinions on what the Fed Chair gives the markets tomorrow. Does Christmas come early? Or does he give the markets a big raspberry?

I'll go first: no QE3 announcement. He'll affirm the 2-year pledge of super-low interest rates. There will be some typically cryptic verbiage about how the Fed will be ready to "intervene" to promote the "stability" of markets/the economy. But no giant bombshells.

Stocks go sideways or down (mostly the latter) in response. PMs resume gradual climb (albeit with pullbacks if there are further margin hikes). Bond rates stay low. Oil stays down or drops a bit more.

The rates at which pundits continue to speculate on QE3 will continue to remain high...

Viva -- Sager

docmims's picture
docmims
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He won't commit to QE3 until

He won't commit to QE3 until the market sinks below DOW 10K.  Too much heat right now.

Johnny Oxygen's picture
Johnny Oxygen
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The Bernanke has painted himself into a corner.

no QE3 announcement.

He'll affirm the 2-year pledge of super-low interest rates.

There will be some typically cryptic verbiage about how the Fed will be ready to "intervene" to promote the "stability" of markets/the economy.

But no giant bombshells. Stocks go sideways or down (mostly the latter) in response. PMs resume gradual climb (albeit with pullbacks if there are further margin hikes). Bond rates stay low. Oil stays down or drops a bit more. The rates at which pundits continue to speculate on QE3 will continue to remain high.

 

LoL

I couldn't of said it any better. Bingo.

SailAway's picture
SailAway
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OT2: Operation Twist 2

 

Jim Rickards in his latest appearance in King World News thinks that the FED is preparing "Operation Twist 2" (OT2). Essentially maturing short term bounds are rolled over into longer term bounds to "twist" the rate curve:

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2011/8/23_Jim_Rickards.html

 

Johnny Oxygen's picture
Johnny Oxygen
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SailAway wrote:   Jim
SailAway wrote:

 

Jim Rickards in his latest appearance in King World News thinks that the FED is preparing "Operation Twist 2" (OT2). Essentially maturing short term bounds are rolled over into longer term bounds to "twist" the rate curve:

http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/Broadcast/Entries/2011/8/23_Jim_Rickards.html

 

I really like and respect Jim but I'm not buying his twist theory. I know its been done before but I don't believe the 'roll over' can account for an exponential expansion of the money supply that will be needed to keep the farce going. They are just going to print it. IMO its just that simple.

JAG's picture
JAG
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Does it really matter?

Hey Sager, it's good to see a thread from you.

Does it really matter what the Bernanke says? The markets will hear what they want to hear. Or more accurately, the markets will move based on endogenous dynamics, and everybody and their momma will interpret the move based on their own endogenous dynamics.

In other words, expect a fustercluck.

Best....Jeff

Johnny Oxygen's picture
Johnny Oxygen
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Bernanke Stays Course, Says Fed Will Consider Move in Sept.

Bernanke Stays Course, Says Fed Will Consider Move in Sept.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/44286314

 

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said the Federal Reserve stands ready to use additional tools to help the US economy in its nascent recovery, but he stopped short of explicit talk that another round of monetary easing is forthcoming.

The central bank chief's hotly anticipated remarks did not entail promises of more quantitative easing—QE3 in market parlance—nor did he discuss specific measures on whether the Fed will make any other attempts at intervention.

As the economy languishes in low growth and stock market endures a summer correction, Bernanke's speech was considered a bellwether for what will lie ahead.

Instead, he mostly reiterated language already used by the Fed, in which it expressed concern about the pace of economic recovery.

But he also said he expects growth to pick up in the second half. Should signs fail to materialize soon, the Fed's Open Market Committee will consider additional policy tools at its September meeting.

Bernanke said inflation is likely to stay below 2 percent, which would meet expectations.

Markets sold off sharply following word that the Fed would not deliver on QE3 expectations, with the Dow industrials sinking more than 150 points.

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dshields
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Uncle Ben

Uncle Ben did not say diddly squat.  He basically said everything is not rosy but it is acceptable and at another point he implied that the government needs to get its acts together.  That''s it.

 

docmims's picture
docmims
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My take is that Bennie

My take is that Bennie indicated he wants to get the pundits to grovel more for QE 3. So he has delayed it a couple months. 

Johnny Oxygen's picture
Johnny Oxygen
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docmims wrote: My take is
docmims wrote:

My take is that Bennie indicated he wants to get the pundits to grovel more for QE 3. So he has delayed it a couple months. 

Yep

Ben: "Just wait till the market drops THEN they'll want more QE..."

SagerXX's picture
SagerXX
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Except that the markets...

...are instead melting *up*...

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