any opinions on the "Canadian recovery"?

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yoshhash's picture
yoshhash
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Joined: Sep 20 2008
Posts: 271
any opinions on the "Canadian recovery"?

http://www.thestar.com/article/688543

It's all over the news today- they are even saying that the recession is "over".  I know that Canada is in a distinctly different (not as dire) set of circumstances, but I am not sure how to read this.  Does anyone know if the Canadian government is as bad for manipulating terminology/ changing the rules of the game (as discussed in the crash course) to try to put a positive spin on trends?  Would anybody go as far as to say that it is false, or grabbing at threads? 

Does anyone know of a resource in which Canadian policies/trends are spelled out as eloquently and simply as Chris has done?  I understand the economy so much better because of the site, but it is definitely US centric.

cannotaffordit's picture
cannotaffordit
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Posts: 273
Re: any opinions on the "Canadian recovery"?

yoshash,

We live just below the U.S. border with Canada, and get their news everyday.  It seems to us that the news from there is not only better presented, but also "sounds" more like the truth.  We don't hear hardly any "spin" on "The National" or any of their other news shows, like we get constantly from the U.S. media.

To me, there seems to be a lot in the CC that applies to Canada, as well as other nations.  But I hope Chris, or administration pick up on your question, and add whatever additional info might be different, or more appropriate for Canada residents.

John99's picture
John99
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Re: any opinions on the "Canadian recovery"?

In doing homework on the NWO, there was Harper as a Bilderberg attendee 2 years before he came from nowhere to take the PM's office, and after he was in, a deputy from the PM's office went in his stead. Looking at this and the NAFTA  and the Peace and Prosperity Agreement, I'd have to believe Canada is in total sync with the frauds being perpetrated south of the border.

Also a Goldman Sachs alumni is running the Bank of Canada. Go Leafs GO!

Ed Archer's picture
Ed Archer
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Posts: 225
Re: any opinions on the "Canadian recovery"?

As a fellow Canadian, I think while we are doing a bit better than the yanks, its kinda hard to do well when your biggest market is tanking. For good or ill a large portion of our fortunes are currently tied to America. Commodities have kept us in a better position than other nations but that's at best a limited time window. When industry slows so does demand for commodities.

agitating prop's picture
agitating prop
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Posts: 863
Re: any opinions on the "Canadian recovery"?

What recovery? Nice Canada, full of nice earnest do-gooders, is in for a really nice depression, just like the U.S. Are our banks in better shape?. They are pursuing quantitative easing and trying to reinflate the real estate bubble. Canadians are at the very top of the list of countries with the highest level of personal debt among it's citizens....all because the media has them convinced we are morally superior and so "above average, and just impervious to the downfall of the U.S. We are edging to levels of corruption every bit as bad as the U.S, but our propaganda is very polished, because most of the media actually believe it, so affected are they by their image as the world's responsible peace keeping boy scouts. Don't believe a word of it.  

John99's picture
John99
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Re: any opinions on the "Canadian recovery"?

Nice rant!

Question: Have you found any good Canadian-content-included, alternate news sites?

agitating prop's picture
agitating prop
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Posts: 863
Re: any opinions on the "Canadian recovery"?

Not actually a news site, but  Garth Turner's blog is pretty interesting and Canadian focused.

http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/09/26/your-mortgage/

yoshhash's picture
yoshhash
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Posts: 271
Re: any opinions on the "Canadian recovery"?

I have to say that I'm absolutely flabbergasted.  NOT because it sounds harsh, but because I thought EVERYBODY- including Americans, had this same deal.  This is all I've ever known, once you sign on the dotted line, there is no "walking away", that such things only happen in the movies.  (I learned this the hard way, many years ago.  It taught me early on to smarten up.)

Call me hard hearted, but I think anyone who can walk away from a sinking house is LUCKY.

 

agitating prop's picture
agitating prop
Status: Platinum Member (Offline)
Joined: May 28 2009
Posts: 863
Re: any opinions on the "Canadian recovery"?

I think the term "walking away" is a bit inaccurate. If you've sunk several thousand into a place and have to abandon it,  while you destroy your credit rating, you're still waking up from the American dream, and entering a surreal landscape of crushed hopes, an uncertain future and possible homelessness. I posted this, Yosh, as an example of Garth Turner's writing and as an example of how very serious the economic situation is for Canadians.

Home owners in Canada hold mortgages that are refinanced every 5 years (or less), most commonly.  In the U.S. there is now recognition  that locking in at a low rate for the life of the mortgage is the preferred and responsible route. We have no historical precedent for doing the same, here in the Great White North. The Canadian banks make it prohibitively expensive to take this option as the interest rate more than doubles, for a long term fixed.  That means, unless a home is paid off,  the mortgage is subject to the vagaries of interest rate fluctuations. Our central bank may be able to hold rates down in perpetuity, but I think within a 5 year time frame, they will be struggling to curb run away inflation, and will have to use the one tool at their disposal-- rate hikes. This could put millions of Canadians out of their homes. Millions. I don't know what the alternative is. I've racked my brains. We seem to be heading for the same abyss, in terms of real estate, that the U.S. has fallen into.

The idea that our banks are that much  more stable than most in the international banking community  will be exposed as the illusion it is. As  millions default, we'll see if  the Canadian self image holds up.

Bermark's picture
Bermark
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Joined: Jun 1 2009
Posts: 3
Real Estate Bubble in Canada

Believe it or not, several of the major cities in Cabada are experiencing a housing Bubble.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/canadas-housing-rebound-sparks-fear-of-bubble/article1365648/

This article in the Toronto Globe and Mail explains how neigbourhoods  in Toronto and Vancouver are experiencing  bidding wars and prices are soaring.  (The Globe and Mail is Canada's main business paper.)  I can tell you that in my area just outside Toronto, the market is hot and prices are rising.  The problem is very low interest rates are distorting the market and luring in many buyers.  However, the banks in Canada were a lot more conservative than American banks over the last decade and there are none of the problems with "Liars Loans".  As well, there are none of the balloon mortages with low initial rates that reset after a few years. 

However this bubble will  burst when interest rates inevitably go up.  Here is a link to an article by Garth Turner.  Turner was Canadian Finance Minister for a short while about 15 years ago and has written several books on investing.  He is warning that this real estate bubble will burst and help plunge the Canadian economy into recession, along with the rest of the world.  He warns recent that recent buyers are in for a loss on real estate.  His website "The Greater Fool is a good place for informed opinions on the Canadian economy. 

http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/10/16/ottawas-bubble/

http://www.greaterfool.ca/2009/11/17/when/

My humble opinion is that the Canadian economy is strongly linked to the US economy and the industrialized provinces of Ontario and Quebec will be hard hit since their main market is the USA.  However, our federal and provincial governments are not as deeply in debt as their counterparts in the USA.    The real "Ace-in the Hole" for Canada though is oil and the many other commodities such as minerals and agricultural products that make Canada a net exporter.  When prices go up for those commodities it will inject lots of cash into the country.

Unfortunately the cash will be unevenly distributed with western and Atlantic Canada doing best because of their endowment of Natural Resources and the more industrial central Canada still suffering.  There will be political strains when the federal government wants to tax away some of that cash to redistribute it to the less fortunate regions.  But the political problems will not be insurmountable.  At least there will be money to redistribute.

 

 

Bermark's picture
Bermark
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Joined: Jun 1 2009
Posts: 3
Canadian Alternate News Site

John99,

This is a Canadian Alternate News Site.  It is not focused on financial news and has lots of international news but occasionally there are articles about Canadian issues.  It run by a university professor in Ottawa.

www.globalresearch.ca

Mike Easton's picture
Mike Easton
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Joined: Dec 14 2009
Posts: 1
Re: any opinions on the "Canadian recovery"?

As a U.S. Citizen and Landed Immigrant of Canada, owning property in Canada and manufacturing in U.S. I spend equal amounts of time in both places.  Canadian citizens, like Americans are being very deceived by the news media political elements governing their country.  1000's of workers associated with manufacturing are laid off or being laid off.

Alberta, economy I am most associated with is in a major down turn.  Any construction taking place is associated with monies allocated prior to down turn or just as it was starting.  Most of the major oil boom employment, rig work is being downsized.  Rig count is equal to or less than that prior to the boom.  Agriculture prices for grain crops, cattle and hogs is at an all time low.  The lumber industry is shutting down to a snells pace and many mills closing completely.   Tourism was marginal and was largely locals traveling within weekend traveling distances from their homes.

Retail sales for non-estenial items was well below averages.

So for the gov't and media to report growth is manipulated just as its being done here in states.

DON'T BE FOOLED FOR ONE MINUTE.

 

 

Ed Archer's picture
Ed Archer
Status: Martenson Brigade Member (Offline)
Joined: Oct 12 2008
Posts: 225
Re: any opinions on the "Canadian recovery"?

Mike I have to agree with you, things are looking bad up here as well. Just a slightly different sort of bad.

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