Analyzing shale gas numbers

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Dan Cloutier
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Joined: Dec 22 2009
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Analyzing shale gas numbers

 I was looking at some recent shale gas numbers from reutable sources and began to put them in the following table below.

So long as my math is correct it seems to me that depending how you present the shale gas numbers one can gain a perspective of plenty or great scarsity. Comments?



Field:


Current Production


Years of gas at current North American use levels


Water required for production


# of wells needed to be drilled to maintain production level


Reserve life in years if full reserve can be recovered. US consumption is 22.8 TCF annually. 10% gas consumption growth equals 25.08 TCF


Horn River, BC: The resource lies at a depth of 7800 -13,300 feet and the average first year decline rate is 50 percent.


Current production is 0.2 BCFPD X 365 = 73 BCF


.003 of a years supply


 


 


Estimated reserves recoverable is 61-96 TCF so 4.2 years.


Montney, AB: The gas lies at a depth of 6,600 – 8,000 feet and the average first year decline rate is 50 percent.


Current production is 0.6 BCFPD X 365 = 219 BCF


.009 of a years supply


 


 


Estimated recoverable reserves are 250 TCF  or 10.96 years.


Barnett, Texas: Depth at 6,500-9,000 feet. Average first year decline rate is 65 percent.


Current production is 4.1 BCFPD X 365 = 1496.5 BCF


.07 of a years supply


 


 


Estimated recoverable is 2.5-20 TCF or .88 years.


Woodford, Oklahoma: Depth at 6,000-13,000 feet. Average first year decline rate is 59 percent.


Current production is 0.5 BCFPD X 365 = 182.5 BCF


.008 of a years supply


 


 


Estimated recoverable is 10-11.4 TCF or .5 years.


Marcellus, Pennsylvania: Depth at 5,000-8,000 feet. Average first year decline rate is 62 percent.


Current production is 5.1 BCFPD X 365 = 1861.5 BCF


.08 of a years supply


 


 


Estimated recoverable is 262 TCF or 11.5 years.


Haynesville, Texas: Depth 10,500-13,500 feet. Average first year decline is 85 percent.


Current production is 1.9 BCFPD X 365 = 693.5 BCF


.03 of a years supply


 


 


Estimated recoverable reserves 260 TCF or 11.4 years.


Fayetteville, Arkansas: Depth is 1,500-6000 feet. Average first year decline rate is 64 percent.


Current production is 1.5 BCFPD X 365 = 547.5 BCF


.024 of a years supply


 


 


Estimated recoverable reserve is 11 TCF or .48 years.


Subtotal


5073.5 BCF or .22% of US annual consumption


.224 of a years supply


 


 


 

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