All investors and users, guess who fails next?

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krogoth's picture
krogoth
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Posts: 576
All investors and users, guess who fails next?

Let's see how good everyone is at economics and investing by guessing who will fail next based on these historic economic conditions.

 

My companies are-

Ford- Easily the big disappointment of automakers. This historic company that practically oozes Americanism and so much history is doomed. Cheaper, more economical car manufacturers will kill Ford. Also poor spending and hemorrhaging money right now.

GM- Pretty much the same situation, plus late getting into more economical cars

Chrysler- Same deal

Circuit City- What a mess

Sprint-The first telcom to go, many should follow

 

 

OK what are all your guesses?

 

gyrogearloose's picture
gyrogearloose
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Posts: 537
Re: All investors and users, guess who fails next?
[quote=krogoth]

Let's see how good everyone is at economics and investing by guessing who will fail next based on these historic economic conditions.

 

[/quote]

 

Chris put GM at the top of his bankruptcy alert list a while ago........ ;-)

rlee's picture
rlee
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Joined: Sep 18 2008
Posts: 148
Re: All investors and users, guess who fails next?

At the top of the car makers I'm going with Chrysler first.  My thoughts are that Mopar has always operated behind the times, so to speak, in the industry.  The really haven't made any big breakthroughs since they pioneered the mini-van craze, and now that's fallen way to the crossover platform, and they just don't have anything that sells.  Ford has definitely been a disappointment, and that sucks because I drive Fords!  GM is an easy target right now, and maybe too obvious.

My next wonder is the K-Mart / Sears thing.  Here's a company: K-Mart, announcing themselves on the verge of bankruptcy, and out of nowhere - bam! - they buy Sears in a zillion dollar deal, but Sears wasn't saying anything bad about themselves.  The retail market has got to be due for a hit, and the K-Mart / Sears combo handles a good percentage of medium to high ticket items that won't be moving.  Their demographic will stick with Target and Walmart.  The rest of the retail industry will hurt.  

Telecom:  Sprint bought Nextel and put themselves way out.  At the time Nextel was starting to crap out and it turned out to be a poor move.  They've also launched some pretty impressive marketing pushes of late begging for business.  They're a good bet to go, but I don't think they'll disappear - somebody wants an exclusive on the accounts.  Maybe AT&T who's got the exclusive on the 3G platform, and they'll get to keep it for another couple of years yet.  US Cellular may go too.  Not because they're not solid or somewhat stable, but they don't have a large enough market control to fend off a takeover of the client list.  They'll just get taken for the sake of it, as will a lot of these fly-by-night carriers that have popped up in the past few years.

I also wonder about Simon Property Management.  Here's a place that's still building malls despite an obvious destruction in the construction market, a downturn in retail spending, and all the while looking to raise the rental rates on retail sales space of companies that are losing money!  How long is this wacky scenario going to sustain itself?

Let me know if I'm too off base.

Bob 

bruin36's picture
bruin36
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Joined: Oct 4 2008
Posts: 48
Re: All investors and users, guess who fails next?

Simon  (SPG) has made me a fair amount of money this year by selling them short! just a few weeks ago there stock was 100 per share, today it is around 60, too bad I am out of the deal.

A lot of the REITS are going to shrivel up and disappear - VNO, BXP. KIM. TCO all have collapsed in the last 2 months - of course one can always go long on SRS

As far as GM, Ford and Chrysler go, I am sorry but they all completely suck from their design on up - Its not just Mopar that is living in the dark ages. I do agree that of the 3 Chrysler is the worst - look at the new "Challenger" what a POS,  Their design department must think that steam driven automobiles are the way to go! And the Mini van ! OK it was the largest seller of any American  car but come on it destroyed the road with its in-efficiency and ugliness- of course that did not stop us from buying it or keep the foreign makers from copying it.

I am not bashing these companies ( I am an old school Ford man myself) I am just sick of bad design and government subsidies and deplorable CAFE standards so they may crash and burn, but its their own fault

Bruin36

Yoski's picture
Yoski
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Joined: Aug 24 2008
Posts: 3
Re: All investors and users, guess who fails next?

@krogoth

"Ford- Easily the big disappointment of automakers. ...
GM- Pretty much the same situation, plus late getting into more economical cars

Chrysler- Same deal

Circuit City- What a mess

Sprint-The first telcom to go, many should follow "

I don't think any of the automarkers will disappear. More bailouts coming. Maybe they get merged into one company and nationalized. Got to love Socialism. At least Chavez nationalizes companies that are profitable.

Lots of retailers will not get bailed out. Circuit City probably being the first to go, more to follow. I have 2 friends that work for Verizon, they're sweating bullets right now. Layoffs might hit them just in time for X-mas.

Any business relying on discredtionary spending is in trouble. Several of the large builders will be forced out, car dealers and high end retailers. Many smaller guys are in dire straights. My yard maintainace guy came by yesterday begging for work. Same goes for limosine service, pool maintainace, day care, restaurants, cable service, etc. as people cut non essential spending. All those are small enough to fail.

 

 

krogoth's picture
krogoth
Status: Platinum Member (Offline)
Joined: Aug 18 2008
Posts: 576
Re: All investors and users, guess who fails next?

OK it looks like the big C, Citigroup, is lining up to be the next bank failure, oops, I mean takeover target for JPMorgan Chase. JPM Chase needs to call the FDIC and see if they can get another sweetheart deal.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

krogoth's picture
krogoth
Status: Platinum Member (Offline)
Joined: Aug 18 2008
Posts: 576
Ford is going down

Looks as if Ford will be the first to fail. Going to be a rough day today.

 

 

 

 

 

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