Brexit or Bremain? Vote here, early and often.

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thc0655
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Brexit or Bremain? Vote here, early and often.

It's about 24 hours until the British vote on remaining in the EU. Will it be Brexit or Bremain?  

I say a Brexit would be too disruptive to the status quo and those who benefit from it for the elite to ALLOW it to happen. Therefore, I'm sure the vote will be Bremain, and I'm nearly as sure that the voting will be fraudulently altered as necessary.

"The Collapse" is ready for another big stair step down, a Black Swan if you will, but I don't think it will be initiated by a popular vote.  Voting is too easy to control.  A more likely spark in my mind will be the giants fighting among themselves for the last scraps of power and wealth and inadvertently breaking something vital.

What say you?  Brexit or Bremain?

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cmartenson
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Bremain!

There's no question about it in my mind.  Even if 75% of the people voted for leaving, the reported tally will be 53% remain, 47% leave.

But if 86% voted to leave, then the reported result will be 53% remain, 47% leave.

Alternatively, if 53% vote to remain and 47% to leave.then the result will be 53% remain, 47% leave, and everyone can congratulate themselves on trusting democracy to deliver the right result at the right time.

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Time2help
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No question
cmartenson wrote:

There's no question about it in my mind.  Even if 75% of the people voted for leaving, the reported tally will be 53% remain, 47% leave.

Wonder if one of this guy's colleagues might happen to be on vacation in the UK right about now...

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HughK
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Bremain

I agree.  Whether due to a genuine, fair vote for Bremain or due to media manipulation leading up to an honest election or due manipulation of events, esp. the assassination of MP Cox, or due to a rigged election, the UK will stay in the EU.  

Although, the referendum would have no binding power, so even if Brexit won, Parliament would have to follow up with its own legislation to make the Brexit official, and it could water down the final outcome to something that looked like a Brexit but left the UK paying taxes to Brussels and being included in many of the existing free trade arrangements.  

I have not taken any financial positions based on a Brexit because for a while now it has seemed so unlikely.  

Also, while I think the pro-EU people in the UK have the upper hand, I do not necessarily think that it is better for the UK to exit.  I just don't understand the pros and cons to have an opinion on that complicated question.

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me too

I agree with Chris - this one is too important for Brussels to lose.

My sense is that the politicians, once they no longer are in power in their own home countries, go off to work in Brussels where they have a nice cushy job more or less for life.  Life After Domestic Politics.  That's why the main politicians are all for the EU.

I've actually taken positions that assume Remain.  I started entering after the reversal on Thursday (post assassination) and have added to them since then.

So yeah.  Remain.

Short bonds, and short volatility.  I'm less sure about short gold, but there's no way I'd be long gold at the moment.

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mvmorejohn
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Excellent Brexit interview wtih Dr. Liam Fox

The guys at RealVison TV just made this video public, and everyone should listen to this. Pippa asked all the right questions and Liam nails the issues brilliantly. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WZLfo5_pst8

Just wish this came out a month ago as I don't believe the Leave camp will win.

Miguel

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thc0655
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Brexit cartoon

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Michael_Rudmin
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Around here, it seems to be the opinion that EU killed MP Cox

Some might have to disagree. 

Some might think it's quite possible the EU killed Lindh. 

THEN

they killed MP Cox.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anna_Lindh

Wash, rinse, repeat.

 

Soooooooo....

It seems that this Brexit deal is really a nonissue. 

 

Oh, BTW... how exactly do you upload a picture?  I try, and instead I just get an option to link to a file already existing in the PP server.

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Bremain (voted Leave tho)
cmartenson wrote:

There's no question about it in my mind.  Even if 75% of the people voted for leaving, the reported tally will be 53% remain, 47% leave.

But if 86% voted to leave, then the reported result will be 53% remain, 47% leave.

Alternatively, if 53% vote to remain and 47% to leave.then the result will be 53% remain, 47% leave, and everyone can congratulate themselves on trusting democracy to deliver the right result at the right time.

 

Too funny Chris, my prediction was for approx the same as the Scottish referendum. ie ~ 56%

Got money betting on an official turnout of >70%.  Kinda kicking myself I didnt place money on Bremain at odds of 1/2 (50% profit) at the wknd, odds now 1/8 12% profit...

Voted leave but it didn't sit comfortably knowing I was in the company of idiots and full blown racists.

To be honest this could of easily been avoided if the EU was just a trading body rather than attempting to be a political superstate.

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Betting odds

Have a look yourself, better predictor than opinion polls...

 

https://m.oddschecker.com/t/politics/british-politics/eu-referendum/refe...

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Off by a percent

And according to the much anticipated poll by YouGov which surveyed around 5,000 voters, Remain will win 52% while Leave is at 48%.

I can only hope that with a more complete count my preferred ""result"" of 53% to 47% can be achieved.

And may the Brits who actually did vote to remain enjoy their servitude under the EU technocrats for many, many years to come, 

 

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beat me to it

Chris-

I was just about to castigate you for your terrible forecast.  But hey, we still have the actual vote counting ahead of us, so you may have the last laugh.

It will be interesting to see what effects this has on UK domestic politics.  Tories were ripped in half by this particular campaign.  How will they continue to govern?

I guess for now, the European pot continues to simmer.

This result will still be a shot across the bows of the EU elite.  What will they do in response?  Double down?  "More Europe?"  Migration?  Immigration in the UK?  Shengen visas for 80 million Turks?  Brits didn't like the Poles - I can't wait to see what happens when the Turks pour in.

So many things remain unresolved.

Of course I shouldn't laugh.  We will end up with either Trump or Hillary.  Unless there is some sort of divine intervention.

 

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BREXIT shocker! (?)

A few votes to count, but Brexit is actually leading over Bremain at the moment. (!!!!)

Wow.

You can knock me over with a feather.

Totally unexpected.  Must be paper ballots or something in use over there?  This is not the result the powers that be wanted.

Right now the S&P 500 futures are down by 53 points, or -2.5% which is a big move, and highly volatile with a gigantic gap down met with a furious wall of buying that was then swamped by even more volume to the downside.

People are getting their clocks cleaned here....the volatility traders are rubbing their hands with glee.

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davefairtex
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volatility traders

Well, we aren't rubbing our hands with glee if we're short volatility.  :)

 

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This shocker reminds me of this...

When I left for a dinner event, this was on my screen:

Everywhere the press was trumpeting the Remain victory.

So I am reminded of this:

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Remain chances slip to just 8%

4:14am Mark Odell Emoticon West Oxfordshire, which includes David Cameron's constituency, has just backed Remain. It will do little to cheer the prime minister, however, as it delivers only 35,236 votes against 30,435 for Leave. The OUT camp has a lead of more than 600,000 votes with 265 of 382 authorities reporting. There are still some areas with large populations to vote, however.

4:13am Josh Noble Remain chances of victory now down to 8%, per Betfair.

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Gap now at 700k...

The pound has slipped to 1.354 to the dollar, Japanese freaking out, 10 year Treasury yield drops hard.

4:22am

Mark Odell If you need any further reminder of how far the shockwaves of the voting is spreading around the world, the Japanese finance minister, Taro Aso, has announced he will be giving a press conference in just under an hour, after the Yen strengthened against the US dollar as it passed below 100.

4:22am

Judith Evans Investors are rushing for havens as the chance of Brexit rises, says Elaine Moore, capital markets correspondent. Demand for US government bonds has pushed the yield on benchmark 10-year Treasurys - the bedrock of the global financial system - down 23 basis points to 1.54 per cent.

 

 

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davefairtex
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an honest election

It sure looks like voting mattered.  I'm really happy, even if my trades went against me.

Pound is down an unbelievable 13 points or -9%.  Long bond: +3%.  Gold +4%.  Dollar +2.9%.

With gold up 4% and the buck up 3%, that's a net 7% move in gold.

If this continues, gold should make a new high.

I have to say, I'm really happy gold futures trade 23.5 hours per day...

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Oh my... Gold up 67 now..

Somebody pinch me.          

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ITV calls it for Leave.

ITV calls it for Leave.

I honestly believe the Queen coming out for Leave, when she rarely takes a stance on anything, made a difference.

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Wendy S. Delmater
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BBC forecasts UK votes to Leave

BBC forecasts UK votes to the European Union

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I wish I knew...

I wish I knew what was happening with open interest for gold and silver right now.

Is this short covering by the big banks (may their PM trades rest in pieces) or are they doubling down as they try to stem the rise?

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various markets react

(Sorry for the All Caps, that's how it's coming off my feed and I am just copying it. )

BREAKING NEWS: JAPAN HAS HALTED TRADING.

DOW FUTURES DOWN 684 POINTS.

China yuan intraday low 6.6148, weakest since Jan. 2011

Nasdaq-100 futures tumble 210 points

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Asian market drama

And kitco website is down for maintenance??

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Time2help
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Say "bu-bye" to an interest rate hike

Sterling, stocks in free fall as UK on brink of Brexit (Reuters)

Quote:

Carnage came to world markets on Friday as major television networks said Britain had voted to leave the European Union, threatening the existence of the entire bloc and its single currency.

Such a body blow to global confidence could well prevent the Federal Reserve from raising interest rates as planned this year, and might even provoke a new round of emergency policy easing from the major central banks.

How's that for political "cover"?

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thc0655
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Ooops!

I predicted Bremain, but I hedged by buying gold and silver on Wednesday just in case it was Brexit and PM's skyrocketed up.  Phew!  That was close.  Now let's see what happens over the course of a week or two.  Maybe someone will sell a gazillion ozs short at 3:30 am.

BTW, the vote is non-binding, right?  So maybe the fall back position for TPTB is to ignore the vote or "save" the country by staying in the EU.

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cmartenson
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Wow. Just wow.

It's nearing 1:00 am.m here.  I'm off to bed as tomorrow could well be a highly interesting and long day.  The S&P futures on my feed have stopped updating or stopped trading at 1999...or down -106.75

The Dow still seems to be updating and is down -707 points.

Japanese officials are looking like deer in headlights and god only knows what China is up to at the moment.

Silver and gold remain solidly up, but have backed off from their spike highs.  Oil is down.  Treasury bonds are up (yield is down).

CYA all in the morning,  ;)

 

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New_Life
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Come on in the water's lovely...

Morning here and wow what a surprise, Democracy hasn't just spoken, its Roared!

Amid threats of another Scottish Referendum, I'm optimistic Good old Blighty will navigate its own path being kind, open and compassionate and get rid of any racist elements.

Expect our tourist and export trade will improve, any of you guys fancy a visit to Scotland buy our malt whisky or our fabulous gin just pm me! :-D

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commercials

I really don't think the commercials are large enough to "stem the rise" - nor are they foolish enough to try.  No experienced trader goes short during a vertical move like we saw today, any more than they would jump in front of a moving train "trying to stop it."  Instead, they probably jumped in after the momentum in the vertical move wavered at around 1360.

At least, that's what I'd do.  And more or less what I did: buy the cup & handle breakout, then sell after things go vertical for "long enough."  I mean, a $50 move, isn't that good enough?  It does look like there was some short covering - perhaps we had a bunch of managed money come in short during the last 4 days and they all had to panic out today.

If you factor in the currency - this is a 15% move for gold in GBP.

I've never been more happy to be wrong.  The setup sure looked right for shenanigans - what with no exit polls by the news organizations, and then the assassination, but it just wasn't enough.

I don't think this will be the last day like this.

Once again, I have to say: hooooooray for COMEX gold futures!!!  $135,000 in gold for $5,000 in margin!

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Wow who'd a thunk it. It's

Wow who'd a thunk it. It's easy to get cynical and think everything's rigged but it seems people do still have some power. WiIl be interesting over the next few days.

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sand_puppy
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Bad hair night in Netherlands

From ZH:

Just as we warned, the historic British rejection of the EU's totalitarian rule has sparked renewed ambitions to leave the clutches of Brussels across Europe. First to congratulate Britain was Holland's Geert Wilders, who calls for a Dutch referendum as soon as possible...

The Europhile elite has been defeated. ... A recent survey (EenVandaag, Dutch television) shows that a majority of the Dutch want a referendum on EU membership.

Geert Wilders: “We want be in charge of our own country, our own money, our own borders, and our own immigration policy. If I become prime minister, there will be a referendum in the Netherlands on leaving the European Union as well. Let the Dutch people decide.”

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