What Do You Prep For? (1st article in Karl Denninger Series)

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pinecarr's picture
pinecarr
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What Do You Prep For? (1st article in Karl Denninger Series)

I was cruising through some prepper links, and one had an article by Karl Denninger of "Market-Ticker.org".  I thought it had some good points of discussion, and so thought others here might find it of interest.  Don't forget to check the comments!  One of the other things I thought people here might find interesting is that he is going to follow this with an article on scenarios.  If I (or someone else) finds that when it comes out, we can post it here too.

Here's the link: http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=229924 

zoedog's picture
zoedog
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The first follow-up - "Common Personal Disasters"

http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=229929

pinecarr's picture
pinecarr
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Thanks for posting, Zoedog!

Karl makes some good common sense with this second article, discussing the logic of preparing for more common personal disasters  (house fire, car problems in the middle of winter, etc.) and not just extreme situations. 

It sounds like there are more articles to come in this series as well!

pinecarr's picture
pinecarr
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3rd article: "What Do You Prep For: Local/Regional Trouble"

Here is the 3rd article in Karl Denninger's "What Do You Prep For" series, "Local / Regional Trouble" , @ http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=229939

"If you're new to this series, the first two articles in it are What Do You Prep For and Common Personal Disasters; you should go back and read both, in sequence, because we're going to build on them.

Next, and far down the list from a common personal disaster (like a house fire or a car wreck out in the middle of BF-nowhere) is an event that impacts more than you and extends to either a local or regional area."

pinecarr's picture
pinecarr
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Posts: 2237
4th article in Karl Deninger's "What Do You Prep For?" series

"What Do You Prep For: The Zombie Apocalypse*", @
http://www.market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=229949

"If you've not read the previous articles in this series you definitely want to before reading this article.

We've covered the common requirements for any sort of preparation (that's you, primarily) and then personal and regional trouble.

Now we'll get to where most so-called "preppers" spend their time, effort and money: The Zombie Invasion."

I'll add my 2 cents to what Karl says.  I like his pragmatism in prepping for the most likely disasters first.  I know others on the site have stated (and I agree), it is easy to get caught up in prepping for and fearing a large-scale financial collapse, when "losing your job" may be a much higher probability event that one should prep for.

That said, Karl very much downplays the likelihood of a large-scale event to the point of (almost?) ridiculing it.  That's where I tend to disagree with him, based on all I've learned about the state of the economy, peak cheap oil, the increasing beating of war drums, etc.  I don't think it is ridiculous to prep for a large scale event at all; I think it is pragamatic.  But I do agree one would do well to prep for common risks that may be more likely to happen (or at least happen sooner) as well.

badScooter's picture
badScooter
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Posts: 152
probabilities

Agreewith Pinecarr's assessment completely.  Deninger is completely worth the read, on the basis of establishing a hierarchy of priorities, but I flat disagree with his casual dismissal of the ZA.

He's stating the probability of a major disruptive event is, for all intents and purposes, zero.  Then excludes two world wars, numerous disease outbreaks (these days facilitated by enhanced travel), "peak everything", and ignores the tenuous metastable state of extended duration called "the cold war"...that could have quite easily turned out very differently.  It is true that these sorts of things are far-tail risks, but in the long run, we're all dead.  Tail risks even at six sigma will manifest, eventually.  Ask an SPC guy.

In contrast to Karl, and with respect (his work appears to be solid), I'm stating the probability of a major disruptive event is unity, not zero.  Such an event will happen, and we have a menu of them.  It is my strong suspicion given our nature that it will be in the form of a major armed conflict, but who knows.

His logical fallacy was in failing to put the probability of any given ZA into the time domain.  I'm sure even the most pessimistic of us will agree that the probability of a major tail event this month or this quarter is diminishingly small.  Not zero.  And our species will eventually encounter a potential extinction event, period full stop.

 

m

 

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